Not the WA election thread

New draft boundaries for Victoria and WA to be unveiled next Friday, plus other matters from the federal sphere.

To keep a general discussion post somewhere near the top of the page, I offer the following:

Paul Osborne of AAP reports the Australian Electoral Commission has confirmed that the draft federal redistributions for Victoria and Western Australia will be published next Friday. The latter has been the subject of particular media attention over the past week, owing to the potential for Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce to be abolished.

• John Anderson, who served in the House of Representatives from 1989 to 2007 and as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister from 1999 to 2005, has announced he will seek preselection for the Nationals-designated number two position on the New South Wales Senate ticket. The position is available as a hangover from the Section 44 debacle, which caused the party to lose a seat to the Liberals in the recount that followed Fiona Nash’s disqualification. It was reported last month that state Nationals leader John Barilaro might also seek the position, though this would seem to be rather optimistic of him.

Kevin Bonham offers a long-range big-picture account of historical opinion polling, which concludes it would be highly unusual for a federal opposition polling only as well as Labor is right now to actually win an election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,462 comments on “Not the WA election thread”

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  1. OK, thanks to the PB brains trust. My friend will be eligible for NHS care immediately upon returning Scotland. This sounds like the most efficient use of what money we have.

    They love France, but I think it is no longer possible.

  2. Scott says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:02 pm
    guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 6:58 pm
    Scott

    No joke.
    I think the Nationals and ICAC did more damage.
    ——————————–
    I still have doubts that gladys will be the leader of the liberal party , when the state election does come around
    _________________
    Have you red-pilled?

  3. D&M as the Morrison government have offered unemployed people $6000 to move to harvest jobs, I reckon moving costs are more like $6000+

  4. The NSW Opposition, in particular the Opposition Leader, are practically invisible in NSW. Few would be able to name the Opposition Leader. Understandable during Covid but NSW Labor needs to get its act together. A corrupt and incompetent State Government should give them plenty to work with.

  5. That NSW’s poll does seem a little sus. But given most think Berejyklian was taken advantage of by a cad, there still might be some residual sympathy for her, though there’s still the prospect of her being untowardly referred to by the ICAC. I personally think she hasn’t been candid.
    She’s a smart woman and it stretches credulity to assert that she wasn’t aware of Maguire’s skullduggery.

  6. D&M

    As in Australia, so in France: there are two rules: one for native born, the other for migrants.
    As in Australia, so in France: the french bureaucracy is like robodebt on roids.

    There are hundreds of thousands certainly, and possibly millions, of EU citizens in Britain who are being bastardized by the best of British bureaucrats as a direct outcome of Brexit.

    I have had extensive direct personal experience of french bureaucracy. Merde.
    IMO, if you can get her to Scotland, get her there.

  7. Steve777

    In NSW Labor can learn a lot from Clover Moore.

    She turned a Liberal conservative dominated council into a progressive one. Labor failed to retake the council.

    In terms of political strategy Labor can learn a lot.

  8. Mavis @7:10

    She’s a smart woman and it stretches credulity to assert that she wasn’t aware of Maguire’s skullduggery.

    She was aware and turned a blind eye or she’s stupid. Either way, unfit to be Premier.

  9. Douglas and Milko
    Crikey, I wonder if she has kwashiorkor ? That can produce distended stomach despite sfa food. If they are struggling for cash then protein rich foods may well be largely off the menu. If they have to pay to see a doctor then perhaps pay to get her checked or even send a ‘food parcel’ . Sounds an awful situation.

  10. D&M,
    I agree that Scotland would probably be their best option though can understand their reluctance to leave France.
    Regarding the transfer of funds, you’d think that in emergencies like this the Australian Embassy in France could help facilitate this? A long shot, I know,
    Best wishes .

  11. Every single anti labor leader story in the Daily Berijiklian over the past 18 months have the same two sources – Walton and Hayes. The unnamed labor sources then cited are from a group inside caucus that could meet in a telephone box.

    Walton has outed himself this time as being the leaker of confidential party information. To Labor’s enemies.

    This campaign is two fingered salute to the 60%+ of both the party rank and file and caucus that backed Jodie over their man. This is nothing more than sour grapes by losers. Hayes nominates areas for NSW Labor to campaign on – which are coincidentally exactly the same two areas that NSW Labor HAS been campaigning on. Assiduously. Of course the readers of the Daily Berijiklian probably don’t know that, given Glads BFF Alex Smith’s policy of a running a media blackout regarding anything that NSW Labor has been doing, saying or announcing – unless of course it can be somehow spun against Labor.

    Those geniuses Walton and Hayes seem to think that the media’s attitudes to Labor and the public’s fondness for hot mess Glad will change if somehow a spiv with big hair and a silver tooth is foisted into party leadership despite the clear support for the current leader.

  12. I suspect we will have the result of the 1st Obeid/McDonald trial soon that will be a hit to Labor but needs to be got over with quickly
    I don’t know if McDonald/Maitland will be retried or if Tripodi/Obeid/Kelly will ever come to trial but these also need to be got over as an alternative to a Truth and Reconciliation Commission

  13. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:09 pm
    The NSW Opposition, in particular the Opposition Leader, are practically invisible in NSW. Few would be able to name the Opposition Leader. Understandable during Covid but NSW Labor needs to get its act together. A corrupt and incompetent State Government should give them plenty to work with.
    ________________________
    Be the change you wish to see in the world Steve777. Instead of whinging – what are you doing to bring about change?

  14. “ The NSW Opposition, in particular the Opposition Leader, are practically invisible in NSW. Few would be able to name the Opposition Leader. Understandable during Covid but NSW Labor needs to get its act together. A corrupt and incompetent State Government should give them plenty to work with.”

    _______

    A MSM media blackout and perverse fondness in punter land for Hot Mess Glad.

    Let’s see how NSWc Labor is tracking later this year, shall we? Unless of course Walton and Hayes manage to get the party to tear itself inside out …

  15. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:17 pm
    Every single anti labor leader story in the Daily Berijiklian over the past 18 months have the same two sources – Walton and Hayes. The unnamed labor sources then cited are from a group inside caucus that could meet in a telephone box.

    Walton has outed himself this time as being the leaker of confidential party information. To Labor’s enemies.

    This campaign is two fingered salute to the 60%+ of both the party rank and file and caucus that backed Jodie over their man. This is nothing more than sour grapes by losers. Hayes nominates areas for NSW Labor to campaign on – which are coincidentally exactly the same two areas that NSW Labor HAS been campaigning on. Assiduously. Of course the readers of the Daily Berijiklian probably don’t know that, given Glads BFF Alex Smith’s policy of a running a media blackout regarding anything that NSW Labor has been doing, saying or announcing – unless of course it can be somehow spun against Labor.

    Those geniuses Walton and Hayes seem to think that the media’s attitudes to Labor and the public’s fondness for hot mess Glad will change if somehow a spiv with big hair and a silver tooth is foisted into party leadership despite the clear support for the current leader.
    _______________________________________
    Where is your alma mater in this important matter ? Presumably the TWU is anti-Minns?

  16. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    1h
    NSW State election betting:
    Coalition $1.85
    Labor $1.90

    —————-

    I do not think the odd makers get it right , but it is interesting

  17. Steve777:

    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:13 pm

    [‘She was aware and turned a blind eye or she’s stupid. Either way, unfit to be Premier.’]

    I think the first option, guilt by omission. But I guess true love can make one blind.

  18. ABC’s new Asian correspondent is doing his first item tonight on ABC News.

    His name is “Carrington Clarke”. He looks like a “Carrington Clarke” too.

    Has the ring of future journalistic legend to it.

  19. NSW Labor its a bit like Nicaragua’s 100 families but probably only about 20 families who matter. Elite conflict with the remaining useful idiots waiting to be told whom to support.

  20. D&M

    FWIW some thoughts on your relative in France.

    – The immediate problem appears to be nutrition. Perhaps as an Irish/EU citizen you can arrange food from Ireland.

    – Health issues I have no ideas on. Sorry.

    – Is it possible to pay for professional legal/tax help? Getting the initial assessment reassessed, or poverty/age exceptions or easing on the lien, or something. I don’t know how such things work. But it may be a better/less costly solution.

    – Might it be possible for her to teach over Zoom, or similar.

    – How much do you trust her? Could she use your credit card from where she lives, no VPN to screw it up?

    Troubling to be sure.

  21. As Opposition leader McKay has more ability to succeed than Clover Moore has had when out of office.

    Labor needs to learn from the smart campaigners.
    The common factor to me is being strong as an alternative.
    Clover Moore.
    Kevin Rudd
    Daniel Andrews.
    Annastacia Palaszczuk
    Mark McGowan
    Bob Carr.
    Bob Hawke
    Gough Whitlam.

    Talking about Sydney reminds me of how strong that environmental and union connection used to be. Jack Mundy had his funeral the other day.

    Those were fighters.

  22. Jodi Mackay is now “embattled”.

    [‘NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay would lose her own seat and the party would suffer its worst primary vote in almost 120 years if a state election were held now, according to internal polling that is likely put further pressure on the embattled opposition leader.

    The poll predicts Labor’s primary vote has crashed to 23.9 per cent, a figure lower than the landslide loss of 2011 under former premier Kristina Keneally (25.6 per cent) and an 8.4 per cent drop in primary vote on the 2019 election. It would be the lowest primary vote recorded by NSW Labor since 1904.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ten-wasted-years-nsw-labor-polls-just-23-9-per-cent-of-primary-vote-20210314-p57ajg.html

  23. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:27 pm
    ______________________
    Guytar, in the immortal words of V.I.Lenin what is to be done?

  24. Mavis can McKay be removed before the election? She cant be spilled I think under the reforms introduced by one K.Rudd from the great state of Queensland.

  25. Poroti,

    Crikey, I wonder if she has kwashiorkor ? That can produce distended stomach despite sfa food. If they are struggling for cash then protein rich foods may well be largely off the menu. If they have to pay to see a doctor then perhaps pay to get her checked or even send a ‘food parcel’ . Sounds an awful situation.

    I fear she had kwashiorkor and Berri Berri. The latter would certainly explain to cardiac symptoms.

    Also, thanks so much for everyone’s suggestions. Scotland is not looking like the best option.

  26. boerwar

    As in Australia, so in France: there are two rules: one for native born, the other for migrants.
    As in Australia, so in France: the french bureaucracy is like robodebt on roids.

    There are hundreds of thousands certainly, and possibly millions, of EU citizens in Britain who are being bastardized by the best of British bureaucrats as a direct outcome of Brexit.

    I have had extensive direct personal experience of french bureaucracy. Merde.
    IMO, if you can get her to Scotland, get her there.

    Thanks! This is my summation of the situation.

    OH is half French, and I have many French friends and colleagues. They think French bureaucracy is actually worse than English bureaucracy.

    And the word definitely has strong French origins!

  27. boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:37 pm
    Is it true that McGuire is NSW Squeeze of the Year?
    _______________________________
    you dirty old pervert.

  28. The latest propaganda from the libs/nats media units ,starting to remind of a ch 9 internal poll which Chris Ulhmann reported when Morrison was in trouble after the bushfires ,claiming it didn’t damage Morrison , but the truth came out support plummet for Morrison

    Probably same with Gladys ,

  29. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7:36 pm

    ‘…

    OH is half French, and I have many French friends and colleagues. They think French bureaucracy is actually worse than English bureaucracy.
    …’

    We were regaling some of our french friends in Paris some of our latest misadventures in french bureaucracyland. Nodding their heads, they were becoming increasingly agitated.
    wtte: ‘It is terrible. They do the same thing to french people!’

  30. I see that the most corrupt federal government since Federation has started in major damage control on FlightRorter.
    How?
    The sent MickMack out to explain it betterer than Morrison did when Morrison was holding his joystick.

  31. Wasn’t there talk about the NSW ICAC could be calling Gladys to appear again shortly, hence the propaganda poll from the libs/nats media units

  32. Instead of showing some spine and going out and facing them, Morrison has sent an open invitation to the women of Australia to talk to him.

    This would happen behind closed doors and with Morrison’s spin merchants, photographers, videographers and sound recorders in full control of the whole episode as well as the media feeds.

    Will the women of Australia fall for the Morrison sucker trap?

  33. NSW state poll doing the rounds are from a Labor linked Redbridge firm. This group has also released other polls that showed devastatingly low poll numbers for federal Labor that was out of line with non commissioned polls such as Yougov and Essential.

    We need other non partisan polls before we can judge it on its own.

  34. Thanks so much to everyone for your help.

    Late Riser

    FWIW some thoughts on your relative in France.

    – The immediate problem appears to be nutrition. Perhaps as an Irish/EU citizen you can arrange food from Ireland.

    I am going to ring the Bank of Ireland tomorrow at 2000 hrs, and I believe I can get an account. They are strictly a 9 -5 operation. My Irish uncle used to say that the Irish had ten works with the same meaning as mañana, but none with the same sense of urgency.

    – Health issues I have no ideas on. Sorry.

    Got good (but worrying) ideas on this from all the other wonderful posters. I think her cardiac problems are partly due to a very poor diet.

    – Is it possible to pay for professional legal/tax help? Getting the initial assessment reassessed, or poverty/age exceptions or easing on the lien, or something. I don’t know how such things work. But it may be a better/less costly solution.

    I am going to revisit this. Everyone has told me that the French bureaucracy is not for turning, and to not bother, but I think it is a live issue.

    – Might it be possible for her to teach over Zoom, or similar.

    Yes, this is definitely a possibility. Currently France is in such a bad way due to lockdown that there are not many customers, but this will change.

    – How much do you trust her? Could she use your credit card from where she lives, no VPN to screw it up?

    To the Moon and back. I think we tried this about a year ago, and it did not work, but maybe my memory is hazy. Definitely worth another try.

  35. D&M
    It is probably worth exploring alternative but legitimate ways of shifting emergency money to her. American Express money transfers may be worth checking.
    If she is wearing a lien and funds are intercepted then her nephew may be a suitable conduit.

  36. Nearly every leader who’s gone to an election during the pandemic has romped home, with the notable exception of Trump, who took no notice of C.19 and accordingly got trounced. Even Johnson has recovered after discovering that putting the economy over lives is fraught.

    Berejyklian would be no exception if an election was held in the next few months. But the NSW election is almost precisely two years away, at a time when C.19 should but be a distant memory. NSW’s Labor should not panic on the back of this internal polling; it has had three leaders since the Tories took power in 2011. Unless there’s a leader of the like of a McGowan or a Palaszczuk in the wings, it should battle on under McKay, who should take a leaf out of the successful premiers’ and chief ministers’ book.

  37. D&M
    It may be worth getting advice on her business going bankrupt and finding out what the bankruptcy laws are. Was it personal debt? Was it a business debt?

  38. Douglas and Milko
    Re the credit card. It may trigger the bank’s security system. Transactions geographically distant using the same card within a short time may trip it and stop the transaction. Was at a dinner with someone who paid for their meal with their card but it was declined/blocked .First ‘Black’ credit card I’d seen………..and last 🙂 He had in a few days gone Thailand,France, Singapore, Australia . Poor bugger virtually ‘lived’ on a plane for about a week .

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