Not the WA election thread

New draft boundaries for Victoria and WA to be unveiled next Friday, plus other matters from the federal sphere.

To keep a general discussion post somewhere near the top of the page, I offer the following:

Paul Osborne of AAP reports the Australian Electoral Commission has confirmed that the draft federal redistributions for Victoria and Western Australia will be published next Friday. The latter has been the subject of particular media attention over the past week, owing to the potential for Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce to be abolished.

• John Anderson, who served in the House of Representatives from 1989 to 2007 and as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister from 1999 to 2005, has announced he will seek preselection for the Nationals-designated number two position on the New South Wales Senate ticket. The position is available as a hangover from the Section 44 debacle, which caused the party to lose a seat to the Liberals in the recount that followed Fiona Nash’s disqualification. It was reported last month that state Nationals leader John Barilaro might also seek the position, though this would seem to be rather optimistic of him.

Kevin Bonham offers a long-range big-picture account of historical opinion polling, which concludes it would be highly unusual for a federal opposition polling only as well as Labor is right now to actually win an election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,462 comments on “Not the WA election thread”

  1. In before mundo,
    Remember Bill Shorten got like 60 of these and still lost!

    Let’s hope team Labor and Albo can build on it. I feel like now is the time to really start putting the pressure on Morrison. Hopefully Albo can cause some parliamentary trouble this week with the coalition being so light on members.

  2. Depending on your politics, a very pleasing 2PP, with Morrison’s personal numbers down but not significantly. And it’s only going to get worse for him while he continues to stubbornly defend Porter, and if any more stuff-ups occur with the roll-out of the vaccines. A very satisfying weekend indeed for Labor supporters!

  3. Morro from Gunna Bay doesn’t do gracious retreats, nosiree, if the voters don’t have the good sense to swallow my bullshit then I’ll move on., termination package complete, too much time away from the girls, another tick in the box.
    Josh mate, have I gotta deal for you.
    One more poll will do it, although the scrappers about the party keep given me the opportunities says a deep and meaningful boy on the way out.
    What a low point in Australian politics and you Morro were the gatekeeper!

  4. Speaking of London HC, the other week I was loitering around the upper galleries of Sydney Town Hall, as you do, and was struck by this fine portrait by Clifton Pugh of John Armstrong, a vigorously Irish Australian Labor man, Senator and minister in Chifley’s Govt, Lord Mayor of Sydney, and a stint in London as High Commissioner. I wonder how that want down. He had taken my mother out (same birth year) and she threatened to ‘look him up’ on one of their seniors’ jaunts. I think my father saw the folly in that.

    He’s staring straight at the viewer, with an intense quizzical stare. I couldn’t look away once we locked eyes, so took a snap to take him home.

    He died at 68 from a coronary. That wouldn’t happen these days.

  5. mundo says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 8:46 pm

    Hope everyone is prepared for the Newspoll cold shower?

    Newspoll doesn’t move, it will be 50/50

  6. BB nailing it re the hysteria and completely irrational response on here re Porter and the other unfortunate woman who was raped in parliament by the same usual suspects. Love how they throw around generalizations that they would never tolerate if thrown at them and theirs. Ideology by meme it is.

  7. About the ‘not all men’ meme and the anxiety felt by many vulnerable women , I read an explanation that it is a bit like ‘not all snakes’ , akin to being in a room with various snakes but not knowing which are safe…or wtte.
    I was shocked to read the lengths these women go to when feeling unsafe , everything from always carrying keys in their hand , locking car and house windows and doors , dressing down and wearing flat shoes so they can run , to even having men’s work boots by their front door when living alone.
    That they feel the need to plan their way home when light is fading was another surprise.

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