To keep a general discussion post somewhere near the top of the page, I offer the following:
• Paul Osborne of AAP reports the Australian Electoral Commission has confirmed that the draft federal redistributions for Victoria and Western Australia will be published next Friday. The latter has been the subject of particular media attention over the past week, owing to the potential for Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce to be abolished.
• John Anderson, who served in the House of Representatives from 1989 to 2007 and as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister from 1999 to 2005, has announced he will seek preselection for the Nationals-designated number two position on the New South Wales Senate ticket. The position is available as a hangover from the Section 44 debacle, which caused the party to lose a seat to the Liberals in the recount that followed Fiona Nash’s disqualification. It was reported last month that state Nationals leader John Barilaro might also seek the position, though this would seem to be rather optimistic of him.
• Kevin Bonham offers a long-range big-picture account of historical opinion polling, which concludes it would be highly unusual for a federal opposition polling only as well as Labor is right now to actually win an election.
Instead of spending hours defending myself I will take a break as I am not angry in response to a tweet that was not posted with the name of any poster on this blog attached to it.
Zerlo, you need to realise that this place is a subset, of a subset, of a subset, of a minority world of dreamers and delusionistas.
If you think BW and I really are “right wing nutters” you seriously need to get out into the Real World more often. Get help.
Itza
Reynolds badly needs sacking. She is a prime example of the Peta Principle.
But right now even Morrison gets it that sacking yet another woman would be like throwing avgas onto the fire.
So Reynolds will not be sacked. She will be promoted to a high profile, high paying job.
Australian High Commissioner to London.
Something like that.
Newspoll incoming…
Labor hits lead in dose of reality for Coalition
The Coalition has slumped as the government reels from the fallout of sexual assault allegations and the slow vaccine rollout. But Scott Morrison has avoided a major backlash.
Oh well glad to be surprised on TPP.
sprocket
That can’t be right cos we all know that Albo’s no good.
52-48 to Labor / 39/39 on primary
Within the MOE.
LVT
You can go and cry for a while like last night.
Lib von Tryhard needs to ramp up the spin cycle
Cry me a river steve davis.
Okay, a warm shower.
You know what happens when you get too excited sprockets.
Pearl clutching again Libbie?
boerwar @ #1403 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:27 pm
No sackings, perish the thought. It will be done under the cover of health, with full accolades from the Liar in Chief. (I actually think London is beyond her as well; you at least have to pretend to be pretending to be of worth.)
Great God Almighty let us double the Announcements, triple the pricks, quadruple the Lonely Jen Advisories and Quintuple the Porks.
Itza
I like the bit about being forced to reign due to ill health and then magically rising from her sick bed to get the Big Lolly.
High Commissioner to London ain’t what it used to be so its still a maybe.
I accompanied my wife to the march in Perth this afternoon, I’d say about 20% of the crowd were men, no one blamed all men for the rape and subjugation of women.
There were a few murmers when the welcome to country was performed by a man, more for the fact that he couldn’t be heard and it went on forever, eventually a slow handclap broke out he wrapped it up.
Dallas Phillips, Noelle martin and Emma Husar made powerful speeches as did the disability advocate (I can’t recall her name) who recounted the time Christian Porter abused her for comments she made while appearing on the Drum, the abuse lasted for 20 mins and left her in tears unable continue work that day. He should be sacked for that alone.
Women have had a gutful and I don’t blame them and quite frankly BB if you want to make excuses for why nothing can be done, absolve yourself of any responsibility and don’t want to be part of the solution then you are part of the problem.
Albo’s net sats improved by +8. That’s outside the MOE.
He cut the PPM gap by 9. That’s outside the MOE.
Labor back to an election-losing position, circa March 2019.
I didn’t know that that lunatic who single handedly infected millions of Americans was a germaphobe. And then he got it himself; the irony.
Probably saw himself as a target for poisoning too.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/13/trump-hotel-washington-missing-maga-crowd
On the one hand it’s within MOE, on the other it hasn’t bent this way for the longest time (? smoothing effects etc). So maybe the worm has turned and will keep on sliding. Tomorrow should prove a bad day for the liberal party #march4justice
there’s movement at the station. Labor 52-48 Newpoll!
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#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2) #auspol
boerwar @ #1419 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:45 pm
There’s a long list of quitters for a long list of reasons who slither sideways. Think Mike Baird.
morrison, do you feel lucky punk, do ya?
Lars Von Trier @ #1415 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:40 pm
You put a dress on and live as a woman?
Does this qualify as a large lead ala Kevin Bonham’s observations?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/when-federal-polls-are-50-50.html?m=1
Fulvio Sammut says:
Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 9:51 pm
morrison, do you feel lucky punk, do ya?
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There’s stiff competition but you would definitely be a finalist contender for dumbest poster on here.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 9:53 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #1415 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:40 pm
You know what happens when you get too excited sprockets.
You put a dress on and live as a woman?
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Poor sprockets was convinced of 100 seats for Labor in May 2019! I don’t know how he planned to dress for the occasion!
AquaL
No.
Optimism should never be mocked. It’s hard enough to find around here.
Lars Von Trier @ #1434 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:56 pm
Your Lib twattism is on full display.
Labor 52/48 and all you can do is go vicious on Labor posters.
Roar! Roar!
You really are a pathetic piece of nonsense.
Oh, you’ve reduced me to tears. Such a cutting response. and so quick off the mark. And you do it without even understanding the context!
Now go away and suck your thumb, or something.
mundo @ #1057 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 8:46 pm
*waves at Blind Freddy* aka mundo. 😀
Damn boerwar
Sure GG – this newspoll is good news for Albo.
C@tmomma @ #1069 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:01 pm
🙂
Bushfire Bill @ #1109 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:49 pm
Statistical analysis by Dr Bonham elucidated that Labor need to be at >52% to win. A solid round of 53s may get them over the line.
How you read that into any of my remarks reflects worse on yourself than on me.
As a non-rapist, non-basher male, I find it amusing that I am supposedly “part of the problem”.
I also just don’t see how lumping everyone in possession of a Y chromosome into the category “Automatic Abuser Of Women (whether he realizes it or not)” is going to win friends or influence anyone at all to help the Cause.
There’s a kind of hysteria about at the moment that feeds off the delusion that progress is measured in decibels and chants, and that marching in circles around Parliament or any other given monument will achieve anything of lasting value out of the powers that be.
A few grudging concessions, maybe, the odd PR announcement perhaps, but nothing that will survive the next blanket denunciation of the male gender getting everyone’s back up again. Things like that tend to get people who would otherwise want to help, upset.
In short, stop judging and insulting ordinary people as if they are born sexual abusers and woman haters. And stop virtue signalling to us how wonderful you are for walking around in circles chanting slogans. It’s unimpressive and accomplishes little.
Newspoll caps off a fantastic weekend.
Lars Von Trier @ #1441 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
It’s bad news for purveyors of whataboutisms for sure.
Fulvio Sammut says:
Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 10:01 pm
Oh, you’ve reduced me to tears. Such a cutting response. and so quick off the mark. And you do it without even understanding the context!
Now go away and suck your thumb, or something.
_______________________________
Only a very serious oddball would go trawling through obituaries of 89 yr olds in Texas because of a familial link to an alleged rapist.
52-48 bitches! 😀
Now Labor need to build on it and use 52-48 as their foundation.
When I think about Morrison I think of a car with the wheels coming off. Also this saying:
‘By their deeds, so shall ye know them’.
And I can see the Coalition’s numbers going further south if Morrison brings back Porter from the political dead.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 10:06 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #1441 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
Sure GG – this newspoll is good news for Albo.
It’s bad news for purveyors of whataboutisms for sure.
____________________________________
I’ve always liked Albo – I think he’s authentic and credible. I don’t think I’ve ever posted any critical about him.
There’s a lot of lead in the saddle bags with the ALP – but he’d be an ok PM IMO.
Lars Von Trier @ #1450 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 10:10 pm
At least we don’t carry dead wights like you.
C@tmomma @ #1449 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 10:09 pm
Weekend with Scotty!
So adversarial GG – you cannot handle agreement other than as mutual therapy.