The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.
Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.
Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.
The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.
Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.
The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.
Can’t have the top image of the day being a fat little fool pointing a finger gun at Tanya!
BB
So this is Craig Kelly obeying his leader’s reprimand? Good one!
You can call him Secretary Pete now! 😀
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/02/transportation-secretary-pete-buttigieg-twitter-army-465098
Player One @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 7:52 am
It only works against Labor because the Greens will come out and say that Labor supports coal mining, never mind that the Greens own policy recognises that mining will continue into the future.
And the Government will come out and say that Labor doesn’t support coal miners.
The wedge only exists because the Greens in criticising Labor on this point, directly contradict their own policy on the issue.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/02/03/essential-research-2pp-labor-47-coalition-44-undecided-8/comment-page-2/#comment-3551186
Talons of fury?
Via Amy:
“Tim Watts was just speaking on the TGA bill – using his speech as an opportunity, as most Labor MPs have, to censure Craig Kelly for his covid views, where he mentioned that despite being supposedly counselled by the prime minister yesterday afternoon, he subsequently spoke to multiple media outlets, including the Guardian and Sky News to repeat his claims.
He then said Kelly had ‘accosted’ Tanya Plibersek in the hall.
Normal stuff, and well, it’s on video.
But then the Queensland LNP MP Luke Howarth entered the chamber in what looked like a bit of a huff (he had been his office I think), demanding Watts withdraw the ‘accosted’ comment – claiming it was a ‘outrageous slur’ and didn’t happen.
Everyone seemed a little confused by that, but as is practice, Watts withdrew.
Howarth still had a head of steam about it all and off microphone kept speaking on it, saying something like it was a ‘bloody disgrace’
Howarth was then kicked out of the chamber under 94A”
The Bully Boys are shitting themselves – what if Rupert doesn’t come through?
I am not sure what the fuss is about.
Kelly is just explaining to Plibersek what he told Morrison when Morrison tried futilely to get him to STFU about the one and a half billion dollar taxpayer spend on vaccines.
I do hope Morrison has taken his anger management pills.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #104 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:00 am
Ah! So it is all the Greens fault. Not Labor’s. Labor ran a truly excellent campaign during the last election, but was undone by those dastardly Greens!
So … your advice is that Labor does exactly the same thing again this campaign? Great idea! What could possibly go wrong?
P 1
Barney’s right.
The Plibersek/Kelly pics spread so quickly that Morrison had to damp the fire.
He’s all hot air. Instead of blowing it out he’s given it more oxygen.
Nice work, Tanya!
Kermit the Hermit #BLM
@Nettythe1st
Has anyone else noticed #ScottyFromMarketing has started saying “We won’t tax you” to reduce emissions Face with raised eyebrow
Sounds like he’s working on a scare campaign for the election Angry face #auspol #qt
lizzie @ #109 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:07 am
He’s not right, he’s Right.
Now this is the sort of photo we should widely circulate 😀
Hartcher pointed out in his article that China manipulates faux anger to try to pre-condition foreigners.
It is a sort of part and parcel of generating the sort of Stockholm Syndrome responses we have seen, for example, from several Bludger posters.
Here is how it works in practice. Before reading the link, try to guess at the mighty international issue that is enraging Xi’s China. Xi is mugging Australia using the same technique, backed up with some thuggish trade punishment.
https://www.wpri.com/news/us-and-world/hip-hop-t-shirt-sets-off-more-tensions-in-china-canada-ties/
Dandy Murray @ #110 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:07 am
Is it too late to make Tanya leader?
The Greens and the LNP between them have done their best to render climate change policy a no-go area in this country. The Player is a no-go exponent. A Green in a Lib t-shirt or a Lib in a Green t-shirt….either will work for a Player.
Lin Wood, Mike Lindell,Marjorie Taylor Greene …….. turn over a rock and another wacko Trump supporter appears …….
Pro-Trump attorney Lin Wood under investigation for voter fraud in Georgia: report
On Tuesday, WSB-TV 2 Atlanta reported that Lin Wood, a prominent pro-Trump attorney behind many of the baseless lawsuits alleging ballots for President Joe Biden were fraudulent, is now under investigation in Georgia — for voter fraud.
Wood’s lawsuits alleging fraud by voters and Georgia officials have been resoundingly tossed out of court.
In addition to this investigation, Wood had his ability to practice law in the state of Delaware revoked by a judge in January, citing his “surprising incompetence.” His former law partners are also suing him for breach of contract, accusing him of bizarre behavior, including assaulting one of them in an elevator and proclaiming himself the second coming of Jesus Christ.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-lawyer-lin-wood-investigation/
P1
Now you’re being silly. Bandt always stretches the Labor position to take political advantage.
Scott Morrison reportedly confronts Craig Kelly
——
He supposed to have done this yesterday, which turned out to be a lie
The newsltd hacks and other pro coalition media hacks trying the same thing today, wonder if its another lie
N @ #116 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:12 am
Feeling left out again, C@t? Or have you just got a hairball stuck in your throat?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #106 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:00 am
Don’t think for a moment Player One will take any notice of your factual response. It doesn’t suit their anti Labor narrative.
Player One @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:05 am
No, my advice would be for the Greens to understand their own policies.
If a policy does not reflect their current position then they should update it.
Of course if they did so, they would be to adopting a position that is not supported by scientific models, as it represents a position where all coal mines close overnight, something no credible scientist would see as being a realistic scenario.
The Player is another bludger that specials in malice. Spite one day, contempt the next. Like sausages at the cold meat department.
“ Now this is the sort of photo we should widely circulate ”
Except for the way that Tanya has her arms positioned – makes her look a bit like Lady Penelope from the thunderbirds – it is perfect.
phR
‘Mad as a cut snake’ comes readily to mind.
The usefulness of a wedge depends on its sharp edge.
Make it blunt and the wedge loses its power.
C@tmomma @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:14 am
I don’t, but others read her offal and some may even believe it.
This is distressing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071
lizzie @ #118 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:12 am
Why would you expect anything else, when Labor leaves themselves so vulnerable on this issue?
Labor never seems to learn. Here’s another one: Why do you think the COALition keeps putting up a new energy policy every few months, then abandons it as soon as Labor tries to support it?
Labor are complete mugs on this issue, falling for the same tricks from both the COALition and the Greens, time after time.
This is what you get when you have no policies of your own.
Player One @ #69 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 10:14 am
Don’t be disgusting
Which reminds me.
A-E you promised to respond to a set of policy issues for a suitable Australian China strategy.
No announcement by Morrison that he gave Kelly a lashing about his views , and Craig Kelly hasnt changed his views so it looks like the media once again is spreading lies and propaganda for morrison
Chris Uhlman writes “the only certainty is that there will be more breakouts”.
I feel comforted that it is Chris Uhlman writing that 🙂
OMG
I’ve just learnt that Craig Kelly is on the Reps Science C’tee. And Barnaby is in the Chair.
#headdesk
I assume that someone in the far left will eventually get around to leading a protest outside the Chinese Embassy against the Uigher genocide, the Uigher gulag, and the Uigher rape camps.
I assume that the far left could not give a stuff about our trade with China so there could be something else putting the stoppers on any overt activity by the far left.
It is a political mystery.
“ A-E you promised to respond to a set of policy issues for a suitable Australian China strategy.”
I haven’t forgotten, but I’m not feeling particularly terrific at the moment. Didn’t get my usual 8hrs sleep. Once I do get going, I’ve got a full day of actual work and work related stuff to get through before returning to the topic. Hopefully tomorrow or perhaps even over the weekend.
Having drawn your out, I’m not avoiding you.
I do recall that I wrote a very lengthy policy overview several months ago – maybe even longer – regarding Australia-China relations, but I have no idea on what thread that was. I do recall that even Mundo (!?!) liked it …
The reason the ScoMo struggles to deal with his backbench nongs like Craig Kelly is the government only has 77 members out of 151 in the HoR. Therefore SCoMo can afford to piss any one off too much. Last thing he needs is a backbencher going rouge and voting against the governments interests. I am not suggest a Craig Kelly type would vote the government down but there might come a moment when a Banking Royal Commission type inquiry (which is popular with the populace but not the government) comes along….. All the crossbenchers are on board with the opposition…. and a couple of rogue back benchers decide to give a ScoMo a bit of a kick by backing it.
Cat,
I would circulate this photo of Tanya and Craig.
It is more Oplophilic and could well be weaponized in a campaign against him.
Ah a mere “believes” ,so he is not sure or certain or have Kelly’s
word on it.Either Scrott has not spoken to him or he has and is too weak to get assurances.
lizzie @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:25 am
Hardly surprising, this Government has long been making mislabelling an art form .
The gulf between the two top Republicans on Capitol Hill grew even wider this week after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) took the unusual step of plunging into a pair of controversies that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is struggling to contain in the lower chamber.
In the span of an hour, McConnell issued two separate statements, one condemning the “loony” conspiracy theories of first-term Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a follower of the pro-Trump QAnon movement; the other praising Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) as she faces backlash from former President Trump loyalists after her vote to impeach the 45th president.
Those dynamics have created a rare and growing rift between the top GOP leaders across chambers at the very moment when Republicans are trying to unite against the ambitious legislative agenda of the new Democratic president, Joe Biden.
Both the Greene and Cheney issues have created migraines for McCarthy, a close Trump ally caught between the House Republicans still defending the former president following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and those warning that only a clean break from the mercurial Trump will save the Republican Party from devouring itself.
McConnell’s extraordinary decision to insert himself into those debates — and to do it so aggressively — not only places him squarely in the latter camp, but also applies enormous pressure on McCarthy to join him there. And McConnell is hardly alone; other top Senate Republican voices are also seeking to shift the party’s focus away from its more fringe elements, represented by Greene, and back to the institutionalist mindset embodied by Cheney.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/537057-gulf-grows-between-gops-mcconnell-mccarthy
Some journos just cant see their bias. And when it is pointed out to them – they double down.
891 ABC Adelaide radio journo/DJ this morning had on Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. It was generally an interesting interview about indigenous issues, yet very cushy. Especially at then end when the journo wanted to know why her views were being ignored by the rest of the ABC. You see, this journo had heard her on RN with Tom Switzer. You might see where this is going. Price also works for the politically affiliated CIS think tank. And writes for The Australian. And was the Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Lingiari in 2019.
None of that means her views are not worthy of airtime. I agree with some of her points and interested in some of the others. But there is no doubt the interview was very soft and leading viewers to believe her views better represents indigenous Australia views than others. And when the first lot of callers were gushing in their praise the host was very thankful. When one caller questioned the softness of the interview, the host was rather miffed and segwayed to his interview with Chris Ulhmann who agreed that ‘love in’ interviews were great.
Now, I didnt hear the first part of the interview. Perhaps the host was clear that the interviewee was politically affiliated and not a completely independent expert on the topics. I certainly hope so. I hope he mentioned that some of her views are not well supported in the general indigenous community. I also certainly hope the Uluru Statement came up in the earlier parts of the interview. It would be strange for it not to.
From the news.com.au webpage:
ROAD TO RECOVERY: More restrictions to ease as stellar run continues
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced even more restrictions will be lifted as the state’s run of zero virus cases continues.
Has any other state had a Stellar run, news.com.au?
The IJA organized ‘comfort women’. This institutionalized rape on a vast scale. This institutionalized rape was additional to the disorganized but major rape events that went with the IJA conquests of, inter alia, Nanjing.
The Nazis organized a similar system of concentration camp brothels involving Jewish women in particular. Again it was institutionalized rape on a vast scale.
Now Xi’s China is simultaneously outraged about some text on a t-shirt, and a call from Morrison to investigate the source of the pandemic, while institutionalizing the rape of Uigher women in the Xinjiang Gulag as part of the Uigher genocide.
Silence? #metoo? The Adani Convoy is more important?
And her mother is Bess Price:
The repressive christians at work.
ajm @ #130 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:21 am
Cats do tend to be – all cute and fluffy, but rub them the wrong way, and … 🙁
Gas is on the way out.
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/new-data-reveals-2020-was-shocker-for-gas/
Reality bites P1 in the ass again.
ajm @ #132 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 11:21 am
What do you expect? It knows I have it blocked. (And I’m only saying ‘it’ because I’m still unsure if it’s a he, she or neither).
Anyway, a Player One insult is a badge of honour. It shows they can’t attack on the substance and have to resort to disgusting insults.