The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.
Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.
Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.
The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.
Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.
The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.
The Dawn Patrol disappeared from view after an edit. I will try again.
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Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Shaun Carney believes the ALP needs to offer a compelling case for change if Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese wants to become prime minister.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-party-in-danger-of-entering-an-electoral-dark-age-20210202-p56ypx.html
Michael Pascoe says the RBA’s no-rate-rise pledge is one thing, but what happens to living standards is quite another.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/02/02/michael-pascoe-interest-rates/
Mike Foley writes that experts are saying technology alone won’t be enough for the Australian economy to live up to the Prime Minister’s hopes of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 and that government policy such as mandated emissions caps or financial incentives to reduce greenhouse gases are not only necessary to reach the goal but would benefit the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-incentives-technology-alone-not-enough-to-meet-pm-s-climate-target-20210202-p56yse.html
Barnaby Joyce shows why the Coalition won’t embrace climate action.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/barnaby-joyce-shows-why-the-coalition-wont-embrace-climate-action,14754
Rod Meyer identifies the corporate giants who are the biggest polluters on the ASX.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/02/02/aus-companies-lag-on-emissions/
The AFR opines that the Prime Minister’s party will go into the next election approaching nine years in government with not enough to show for it.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/pm-is-sending-the-wrong-signals-on-reform-20210202-p56ynq
David Crowe tells us how the Morrison government has resisted a push to slap down Craig Kelly after the outspoken MP supported calls from a Brazilian medical association to use unproven drugs to treat COVID-19.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-poke-the-bear-coalition-mps-say-craig-kelly-shouldn-t-be-disciplined-over-vaccine-comments-20210202-p56yoj.html
Harlet Dennett writes that Craig Kelly’s vaccination conspiracies have been condemned by conservative political leaders, just not in Australia.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7110262/conservatives-abroad-show-how-to-deal-with-loony-lies/?cs=14350
And Michelle Grattan writes that Craig Kelly is set to face a preselection reckoning, this time without prime ministerial protection.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-craig-kelly-set-to-face-preselection-reckoning-without-prime-ministerial-protection-154485
After Scott Morrison told voters his government would exercise “fiscal discipline” to ensure future generations were not left in a sea of debt, Sahbe Wight tells us that the RBA delivered a $100 billion wake-up call on the state of the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-delivers-100-billion-wake-up-call-on-the-state-of-the-economy-20210202-p56yt9.html
Ben Butler reports that the auditor general is to investigate the operation of the Morrison government’s $100bn jobkeeper subsidy scheme after concerns money that was supposed to be used to keep workers employed during the Covid-19 crisis has been diverted to pay dividends or executive bonuses.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/03/auditor-general-to-probe-jobkeeper-after-it-was-used-to-pay-dividends-and-executive-bonuses
And the NSW Pork Barrelling Inquiry will be expanded to hear claims that bushfire funding has been diverted to Coalition political mates and even the business projects of billionaire Anthony Pratt. The move follows an investigation here by Elizabeth Minter into a $177 million bushfire recovery scheme which only a handful of Coalition figures and the MP for Wagga Wagga seem to have had heard about.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/pork-barrelling-inquiry-to-probe-bushfire-funds-routed-to-coalition-a-billionaire-and-the-extraordinary-wagga-wagga-windfall/
Chris Uhlmann takes a shot at the state premiers over their zero risk tolerance but says that with the states running suppression, the vaccine rollout is the one task that the Morrison government actually controls, and getting it wrong poses an existential threat.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/events-will-decide-political-fates-and-defy-expert-predictions-20210202-p56ypi.html
Paul Karp tells us that Malcolm Roberts has warned the Coalition that One Nation “doesn’t believe” its industrial relations reforms will have a significant impact on Covid-19 recovery and it has “a long way to go” to win support for the omnibus bill.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/02/one-nation-warns-coalition-on-workplace-changes-as-labor-ramps-up-attack
As record debt under the Morrison Government spirals to new heights, perhaps the Coalition will become synonymous with debt disasters, writes Tarric Brooker.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrison-governments-gross-debt-makes-labors-gfc-stimulus-look-like-petty-cash,14757
Nick Bonyhady reports that a Federal Court judge has reversed $20,000-a-year pay cuts imposed on the managers of group homes for people with severe disabilities by not-for-profit group Northcott.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/judge-overturns-pay-cut-for-disability-workers-after-group-homes-privatised-20210125-p56wpo.html
More from Bonyhady as he writes that employers have asked the national industrial umpire to let retail and hospitality workers trade their penalty rates for higher wages in a move they say will fix pay problems that new data suggests affects a third of businesses in the sectors.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-to-trade-penalty-rates-for-higher-wages-sparks-pay-cut-claims-20210202-p56yso.html
Phil Coorey says that federal Labor has opted for a fight on industrial relations and will oppose the government’s omnibus bill of reforms, a move the government says will result in Labor voting against measures such as criminalising wage theft and terminating workplace agreements left over from WorkChoices.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-decides-on-ir-as-pre-election-battleground-20210201-p56ybe
Rachel Klun says Labor is keen to see the details of the national booking system being set up for people to arrange for their Covid-19 vaccinations.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-in-talks-over-vaccine-supply-as-labor-wants-booking-system-details-20210202-p56ytb.html
Carrie Fellner explains the parlous state of many NSW country hospitals. Gold standard?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/byo-bandages-inquiry-told-of-horrendous-state-of-nsw-hospitals-20210202-p56yv9.html
Media coverage of Neo-Nazis – back in the news after a recent gathering in the Grampians – may be providing a platform to promote far-right extremism as acceptable political discourse, writes Tom Tanuki.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/neo-nazis-in-the-grampians-just-white-men-on-a-bushwalk,14758
The laws regulating Australia’s free press are complex and controversial and none more so than the protections against defamation, argues the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/speedy-changes-to-defamation-laws-needed-for-a-free-press-20210202-p56yub.html
Daniel Comensoli explains why he says Victoria’s gay conversion bill debate reveals the Church’s hypocrisy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/conversion-bill-debate-reveals-church-s-hypocrisy-20210202-p56yra.html
Harriett Alexander reports that almost 17,000 more people are not working across Australia because they are caring for children at home due to the cost of childcare, as fees continue to rise beyond the rate of inflation (and wages didn’t).
https://www.smh.com.au/national/rising-childcare-fees-deter-more-parents-from-returning-to-work-20210202-p56ys3.html
Tasmania has provided $10 million to reopen a tungsten mine, with talks under way to secure federal funding in another step to break China’s near monopoly on critical defence-related materials.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-funds-tungsten-mine-to-break-china-s-grip-20210201-p56ykv
Matthew Knott writes that Democrats have argued in their official brief for the former president’s Senate impeachment trial that Donald Trump was “singularly responsible” for the January 6 assault on the Capitol and must be barred from office for endangering the life of every member of Congress.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrats-say-donald-trump-singularly-responsible-for-capitol-riot-20210203-p56yy2.html
Eddie McGuire still doesn’t get it, writes Barrie Cassidy who says Collingwood can’t rebuild from a position of denial over endemic racism.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/eddie-still-doesn-t-get-it-pies-can-t-rebuild-from-a-position-of-denial-20210202-p56ytt.html
Ross Gittins writes that not everything about the world is going to the dogs, as after rising for about three decades, Australia’s crime rate has fallen sharply since 2001.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-time-to-salute-the-great-crime-decline-20210202-p56ynw.html
After initially refusing a request from US safety regulators, Tesla has now agreed to recall about 135,000 vehicles because the large touch screens on the console can go dark.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tesla-bows-to-pressure-and-recalls-135-000-cars-in-us-20210203-p56yyg.html
This Adelaide shop owner runs away with today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/02/woman-assaulted-during-dispute-over-alleged-unpaid-wages-in-south-australia
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
David Rowe
Matt Golding
John Shakespeare
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
John Spooner
From the US
dave (Block)
Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 7:09 am
Comment #932
Kremlin critic jailed for 2.5 years for breaking parole conditions while in a coma.
He blasted ‘Putin the Poisoner’ and called the case illegitimate
Moscow (CNN)A Moscow court sent Alexey Navalny to prison for more than two and a half years on Tuesday, closing a heated hearing in which the Kremlin critic ridiculed claims he broke his parole conditions while recovering from poisoning, and denounced Russia’s leader as “Putin the poisoner.”
The decision is likely to inflame anger among Navalny’s supporters, as tens of thousands of Russians have turned out for protests over the past two weekends, many demanding the activist’s release. His allies had already called for another round of nationwide demonstrations this weekend.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/europe/alexey-navalny-russia-court-hearing-intl/index.html
Maybe not even ‘compelling’ is required given the shysters in government continue to “offer a compelling case for change” .
Phil saw a shadow – https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/us/punxsutawney-phil-groundhog-day-winter-trnd/index.html
It was good to see the reference in one of the US cartoons.
First thing I noticed was Kelly’s aggressively pointing finger.
What use are submarines for firefighting?
Maybe not even ‘compelling’ is required given the shysters in government continue to “offer a compelling case for change” .
There may be a compelling case for anyone who isn’t a rusted-on conservative voter, right wing nutjob or multi-millionaire, but Labor is going to have to make the case, compellingly. No one’s going to do it for them, least of all the mainstream media.
I guess it should not surprise, that he succumbed to the virus ravaging his country. Sigh……
Captain Sir Tom Moore, who raised $57 million for the NHS, dies aged 100 after contracting coronavirus
It has taken a while, bush fires and pandemic aside, but the politically liquid have quietly acknowledged the mistake made in electing the accidental man from marketing to the position of PM, together with his broadband of misfits , deniers and rorters.
“Steak knives” Morrison will need to be at his spivie best to reverse the quiet rejection of the “larger than life” cutout of himself, as the father of the nation, while the woefully unimaginative and cuckcolded media stop turning a blind eye to the now politically adulterous behaviour of their partners in the business world.
Morrison has political footrot and it won’t be easily contained, even with the over application tax incentives, financial grants and hoping it will all go away.
That the Liberal Party tolerates an idiot like Craig Kelly in their Parliamentary ranks and basically allows him free rein says all you need to know about them.
Relevance deprivation can be a terrible thing. I see that Bob Clancy has been drinking too much again and provides Nein-unFairfax with “cover” for Craig “Backpfeifengesicht” Kelly’s brainfarts. “Emeritus” (ie retired) Prof Bob Clancy (who was my Medicine tutor in the late 70’s at RPAH) was a bright guy, but his reputation as an immunological astrologer was confirmed by both his backing of the “Australian” Lyme disease debacle, and his bullshit COPD vaccine. If Bob backs you, run away.
lizzie @ #6 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:21 am
Great! Get in the bastard’s face Labor!
To think of the faint hearts on here who wanted to throw Albo under the bus.
Shame comrades shame !
McGuire is the worst example of corporate apologist. How on earth do you turn what should be a solemn, heartfelt apology for harm caused and promise to change into a thundering illustration of martyrdom?
Just incredible.
I’m afraid I would be unable to remain calm if a fat pig like Craig Kelly came up close and argued loudly while stabbing his fingers at me. That gesture, like holding a gun, is such an obviously aggressive one, and how Tanya could stand calmly smiling, I don’t know. I don’t think I’m suitable for parliament!!
What happened to the 1.5 metre rule?
Shellbell @ #17 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 7:43 am
Kelly looks about 1.5 in diameter, so even touching him you’d be halfway there
lizzie @ #16 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:43 am
And I thought conservatives in politics had acknowledged that the finger jab was aggressive and so had been taught to the half finger point? (Which I find irritating to see btw, but it is a less aggressive look)
There are a few public figures I might want to see thrown under a bus (a metaphorical one, I hasten to add, not a real one). Albo isn’t one of them. For better or worse he is going to take Federal Labor to the next election.
C@tmomma @ #19 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:51 am
Tanya should have said to Kelly, “Don’t look now, but I think your fly is open”.
Only deliberate provocateurs would still be talking about Albanese’s leadership at this stage of the game. Their opinion is not valid.
Lars Von Trier @ #14 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:43 am
There certainly were/are a few nervous nellies in this regard.
To your credit, you were not one of them!
GG
Why do I never think of retorts like that! 😆
Why do I never think of retorts like that!
Because we only have about half a second to think of one.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/monoclonal-antibodies-great-hope-in-covid-treatments-fails-against-variants
The great hope for drug treatments against Covid-19 – the monoclonal antibodies – are failing against variants of the virus, such as those that have emerged in South Africa and Brazil, scientists have found.
There have been high expectations of the drugs. One, made by Regeneron in the United States, was given to Donald Trump and may have played a part in his recovery. It is being trialled in hospital patients in the UK.
But to the dismay of those who work on therapies against the disease, all three leading contenders – Regeneron’s, and drugs from Eli Lilly and GlaxoSmithKline – fail against one or more of the variants.
Guardian: Kelly claims there are at least a dozen of his colleagues who have privately told him they support him making his claims.
About as believable as his medical smarts.
(CNN)A mutation that could allow Covid-19 to escape antibody protection has now been found in samples of a rapidly spreading strain in the UK, according to a report Monday by Public Health England.
The mutation, called E484K, was already part of the genetic signature of variants linked to South Africa and Brazil.
According to the PHE report, the mutation has been newly detected in at least 11 samples of the UK’s B.1.1.7 strain. It also appears some of these samples may have acquired this mutation independently, instead of spreading from a single case.
This could mean a variant already known to be more transmissible also risks becoming somewhat resistant to the immune protection offered by vaccines, or more likely to cause reinfection among people who were previously infected, experts say.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/variant-mutation-e484k/index.html
lizzie @ #7 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:25 am
Well, if you had one in your swimming pool it would make an excellent bushfire bunker.
lizzie @ #27 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:03 am
I believe it. We are talking about the coalition.
lizzie @ #29 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:08 am
And in the US under Trump.
C@tmomma @ #22 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:55 am
Hands off Albo!
mundo @ #31 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:11 am
Which is exactly the point I was going to make. Why even bother giving Craig Kelly the time of day!?! He’s a publicity whore for the Coalition whose job it is to suck the oxygen out of the room and crowd out rational debate! Just ignore his clownish behaviour.
mundo @ #33 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:12 am
Um, it was ‘Save Our Albo’. 😀
No, but seriously it’s long past time to make such a change and anyway, 50-50 post-Covid isn’t that bad considering.
C@tmomma @ #22 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 8:55 am
LOL! Because Albo is so inspiring, right?
lizziesays:
Wednesday, February 3, 2021 at 9:03 am
Guardian: Kelly claims there are at least a dozen of his colleagues who have privately told him they support him making his claims.
Well lets have a go at naming this lineup:
Christiansen
Andrews
Hastie
Sukkar
Dutton
Joyce
Littleproud
Taylor
Porter
Tudge
Wood.
Not much in the way of a pace attack, but plenty of spin…
P 1
I’m hoping that the exposé of Morrison’s bullying attitude during his CPG question time might finally be a turning point. All journos didn’t appreciate it.
Now add Craig Kelly’s ‘assistance’ and the Essential Research figures, and we may be getting somewhere.
Alpha Zero
I can’t list them, but they may be the religious ones who believe in ‘free speech’.
Tanya Plibersek clashes with Craig Kelly in halls of press gallery
Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek has clashed with Liberal MP Craig Kelly accusing him of peddling quack COVID-19 cures in a fiery confrontation.
Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek has clashed with Liberal MP Craig Kelly accusing him of peddling quack COVID-19 cures in the halls of the press gallery.
The parliamentary showdown follows confirmation that the Prime Minister had privately called Mr Kelly before question time and urged him not to undermine the public medical advice.
But Ms Plibersek was having none of it after she ran into Mr Kelly after his latest television appearance outside Channel Nine.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/tanya-plibersek-clashes-with-craig-kelly-in-halls-of-press-gallery/news-story/bcc11e7b4c1d6bdd83d6b13cd9fccece
lizzie @ #38 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:20 am
The thing that strikes me most at the moment is just how loathed the COALition is – particularly Morrison himself – and yet Labor can barely even poll 50-50.
Anyway, I’ll “see” your Craig Kelly and “raise you” a Joel Fitzgibbon 🙁
Kelly obeying the 1-3-5 rule.
Labor should keep hammering Saint Scotty of the Rubber Spine about Kaveman Kelly because it won’t take too much for him to blow up.
Player One @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 6:28 am
Where is the evidence of the Coalition being loathed in the wider electorate?
C@tmomma @ #34 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:14 am
‘rational debate’
What’s that?
Craig Kelly is eminently qualified to advise on Covid-19 medication. After all, he IS a Bachelor of Armchairs and Kitchen Tables.
Kronomex
Anything that makes Morrison angry so that he turns on the questioner will be useful.
Is it just me or does Kelly’s number 3 look like a gun pointed straight at Tanya?
Alpha Zero
It could be one of Q-anon’s hand signals.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #44 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:31 am
There is none. It just suits the P1 ‘find a way, any way, to piss on Labor’, narrative.