Newspoll: 50-50

Labor defies news media narratives to draw level in the first Newspoll of the year, amid little overall change.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor drawing level on two-party preferred, after trailing 51-49 in the previous poll from late November. That headline-grabber aside though, the poll finds the pollster maintaining its trademark low volatility, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese record similarly sized negative movements in their personal ratings, though from a much higher base in Morrison’s case. Morrison is down three on approval to 63% and up three on disapproval to 33%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 41% and up two to 43%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 60-28 to 57-29. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the results, and currently records a slight Coalition lead of 50.4-49.6 and a trend of very slow decline in Morrison’s net approval since its blowout in late March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

935 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Late Riser
    There is no disputing that some tradies are skilled and some work long hours but many of them talk shit about how hard up they are and walk around with a big chip on their shoulder.

  2. At a recent AustralianSuper roadshow, Head of Investment Mark Delaney was asked about WestConnex by a woke member.

    He said wtte that ‘We are delivering 10% returns, building yours and the nations sovereign wealth, and absent us, these assets would be in the hands of foreign investors’.

  3. boerwar @ #881 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 6:02 pm

    ‘Danama Papers says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8:56 pm

    So, fuck ’em. Labor needs to not make any policies that cater to these arsehole’s whims.’

    Uh huh. The inner urban elites’ moral and intellectual superiority is an absolute selling point for Labor in regional seats.

    Uh huh. And the barbarity of live exports and animal cruelty as entertainment is absolutely toxic in places where the (overwhelming) majority of voters live.

  4. This sounds a bit like Morrison has been humiliated somewhat. Surely he cannot avoid taking action against Kelly.

    Mr Kelly has now confirmed he took a call from Prime Minister Scott Morison ahead of Question Time this afternoon.

    Mr Morrison is understood to have expressed his unhappiness to the Member for Hughes and was very clear about the need to respect health advice.

    After the call, Mr Kelly told the ABC he would continue pushing for Australia’s medical authorities to change their position and endorse the use of drugs hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin to treat coronavirus.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/scott-morrison-dresses-down-craig-kelly-over-covid-19-claims/13114764

  5. citizen,

    Taking action against Kelly? Or taking action against the ABC for misrepresenting the facts, not giving Morrison the chance to respond, etc etc etc ad infinitum.

  6. Looks like Kelly has read the room and knows Morrison won’t save his preselection again so is appealing to his supporters.
    Or maybe he is just stupid.
    Well we know he’s stupid.

  7. I could be overestimating Kelly, but my feeling is that his present objective is to get as much publicity as he can ahead of his post-Liberal Party career, which will perhaps involve launching a new political party with Pete Evans.

  8. If you are interested in the bind religio-conservative (because that’s what we have here and what they have in the US), are having to deal with by way of the Faustian bargain they have made with the wingnut base for their votes, then listen to this podcast (it’s with a former intelligence operative and former Republican Congressman):

    https://podcast.thebulwark.com/denver-rigglemann-on-the-gops-misinformation-problem

    Basically, the tail is wagging the dog because the dog knows it can’t survive without its tail.

  9. William Bowe @ #895 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 10:41 pm

    I could be overestimating Kelly, but my feeling is that his present objective is to get as much publicity as he can ahead of his post-Liberal Party career, which will perhaps involve launching a new political party with Pete Evans.

    I thought it was the more prosaic path down the S.A.D. route. Someone has to be the new Alan Jones when he’s gone.

  10. William Bowe @ #898 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 10:45 pm

    That’s another possibility, but I don’t think Kelly is good enough media talent to carry off a TV career, as low a bar as SAD may be. He may not realise that of course.

    I don’t know. He’s parlayed whatever talents he has into a political career in federal politics and 2 Prime Ministers saving said political career. Alan Jones couldn’t even get pre-selected. And Craig Kelly has done a sterling job of lighting a fire and applying the bellows constantly under the wingnut demographic in Australia. He picked the Populist demagogue wave and has ridden it successfully. To the extent that his Prime Minister will not slap him down. So there’s that.

  11. C@tmomma @ #912 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 7:44 pm

    William Bowe @ #895 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 10:41 pm

    I could be overestimating Kelly, but my feeling is that his present objective is to get as much publicity as he can ahead of his post-Liberal Party career, which will perhaps involve launching a new political party with Pete Evans.

    I thought it was the more prosaic path down the S.A.D. route. Someone has to be the new Alan Jones when he’s gone.

    Doubtful. Apart from Jim’s Mowing Services, what other companies are going to attach themselves to him by buying advertising slots on a show hosted by him?

  12. Okay, back to bed and wading through the 8000 words that is the NYT expose of the internal machinations of the 77 days between Presidential election and Inauguration. 🙂

  13. Danama Papers @ #901 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 10:52 pm

    C@tmomma @ #912 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 7:44 pm

    William Bowe @ #895 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 10:41 pm

    I could be overestimating Kelly, but my feeling is that his present objective is to get as much publicity as he can ahead of his post-Liberal Party career, which will perhaps involve launching a new political party with Pete Evans.

    I thought it was the more prosaic path down the S.A.D. route. Someone has to be the new Alan Jones when he’s gone.

    Doubtful. Apart from Jim’s Mowing Services, what other companies are going to attach themselves to him by buying advertising slots on a show hosted by him?

    The same ones that advertise with S.A.D. now. Not everyone, and especially those that are glued to S.A.D., are as sceptical and contemptuous of Kelly as we are.

  14. Some good news on the Astrazenica vaccine front with further analysis of efficacy….and some nice graphs in this article…

    A single dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine is 76 per cent effective from three weeks to 12 weeks after the injection, according to an analysis of trial data that could boost confidence in the UK’s decision to delay second doses and vaccinate more people more quickly.

    In a paper published on Tuesday but not yet peer-reviewed, researchers at Oxford university said the single dose had shown efficacy of 76 per cent from 22 up to 90 days post-vaccination, “with the protection showing little evidence of waning in this period”.

    The researchers also found that spacing the first and second doses over a longer period yielded better long-term efficacy — a fact previously defended theoretically, but not shown empirically with large-scale evidence for coronavirus vaccines. Vaccine efficacy rose to 82.4 per cent following a second doses after 12 weeks, Oxford said.

    Additionally, the vaccine may have a significant impact on transmission, Oxford said, after it reduced the number of positive coronavirus tests among those vaccinated by 67 per cent. However, a much bigger sample will be needed to reach definitive conclusions on transmission risk, researchers have said.

    https://www.ft.com/content/de00fe75-9ba1-4be7-8cf1-6e9fa55f09ce

  15. Kremlin critic jailed for 2.5 years for breaking parole conditions while in a coma. He blasted ‘Putin the Poisoner’ and called the case illegitimate

    Moscow (CNN)A Moscow court sent Alexey Navalny to prison for more than two and a half years on Tuesday, closing a heated hearing in which the Kremlin critic ridiculed claims he broke his parole conditions while recovering from poisoning, and denounced Russia’s leader as “Putin the poisoner.”

    The decision is likely to inflame anger among Navalny’s supporters, as tens of thousands of Russians have turned out for protests over the past two weekends, many demanding the activist’s release. His allies had already called for another round of nationwide demonstrations this weekend.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/europe/alexey-navalny-russia-court-hearing-intl/index.html

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