Newspoll: 50-50

Labor defies news media narratives to draw level in the first Newspoll of the year, amid little overall change.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor drawing level on two-party preferred, after trailing 51-49 in the previous poll from late November. That headline-grabber aside though, the poll finds the pollster maintaining its trademark low volatility, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese record similarly sized negative movements in their personal ratings, though from a much higher base in Morrison’s case. Morrison is down three on approval to 63% and up three on disapproval to 33%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 41% and up two to 43%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 60-28 to 57-29. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the results, and currently records a slight Coalition lead of 50.4-49.6 and a trend of very slow decline in Morrison’s net approval since its blowout in late March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

935 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Build 50 small hydro energy thingies in 50 rural and regional towns in marginal regional electorates.
    Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.
    Increase water security in rural and regional towns.
    Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.
    Let the Greens and the Coalition faff on about coal and zero/50.
    Labor is about jobs jobs jobs.

  2. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/01/31/newspoll-50-50-19/comment-page-16/#comment-3550903

    The USSR took the brunt of the hit from the German Army in WWII. However several factors have to be remembered about that:

    The British and American naval blockade of Germany and German controlled Europe significantly reduced the size of the brunt the USSR faced, through depriving Germany of resources to fight with.

    The British and Americans supplied Russia with significant war materiel, significantly helping the USSR`s war effort.

    Stalin`s mismanagement significantly exacerbated the hit the USSR took.

    The various campaigns by the Western Allies against Germany (and Italy) used significant Germany resources that could have been used against the USSR.

    The USSR`s invasion of eastern Poland, starting on the 17th of September 1949, caused the planned offensive into western Germany by France and the UK (planned for the 20th of September) to be called off. The vast majority of the Germany army was in the east at that time and it would have significantly harmed the German war effort and may have prevented the occupation of countries along the west-facing coasts of Europe.

    The Germany invasion of the USSR was seriously hindered by the decision of the Russian empire in the 19th Century to choose a wider rail gauge, which allowed the Germans to be deprived of locomotives and rolling stock (through sabotage) they could use on the USSR`s tracks and forcing them to gauge convert lines (a slow and resource intensive process).

  3. We need to understand that tradies in Australia are the equivalent of the electoral version of the Proud Boys in the USA. Dumb as bloody dog shit.

  4. If the Murdoch hacks ask Albo where the money’s coming from the answer is the same as where Morrison’s money is coming from…

    Or say they’ll clamp down on waste, mismanagement and misappropriation. There are plenty of examples to cite, buying land at ten times its value, a billion down the gurgler on robodebt, millions on a failed Covid app, sports rorts, taxpayer funded propaganda advertising, that sort of thing. Also imply that this is a clampdown on corruption (although we can’t actually say that).

    I also regard excess franking credits, largess to wealthy “private” schools, novated leases and tax cuts for large corporations as “waste and mismanagement”, but don’t mention those until safely in office.

  5. ‘Kirky says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 7:55 pm

    We need to understand that tradies in Australia are the equivalent of the electoral version of the Proud Boys in the USA. Dumb as bloody dog shit.’

    Only an inner urban far left elite Greens would bother with a supercilious and nasty sneer such as this
    This haughty elitist snarking is, in part, why the Coalition keeps winning government.
    Tradies are Australia’s new aristocracy.
    Increasingly they are seen as highly desirable marriage partners.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/new-research-reveals-nine-per-cent-of-aussie-tradespeople-make-more-than-200000-per-year/news-story/f8c65f157784e129f49a87ce23b175a0

  6. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/01/31/newspoll-50-50-19/comment-page-14/#comment-3550775

    There are plenty of countries that have successfully moved from autocratic regimes and absolute monarchies that hold power with force to democracies, when the opportunity arises. I see no reason to believe that China would be any different. The CCP are the result of the USSR`s Communism export programme and the Soviet Union jointing the war against Japan and invading the parts of Japanese occupied China nearest the USSR (most notably Manchuria). The CCP was the result of externally backed imposition, just as the October Revolution in Russia was an externally backed imposition (by the flailing German Empire), not a spontaneous domestic occurrence. A democratic China would be one we could be on much better terms with.

    Nixon and Kissinger dealing with the PRC were engaging in containment of the USSR, just as the western allies allied with Russia/the USSR against Germany in both world wars.

  7. Did not the WA Government request the Federal Government to provide Water Bombing aircraft a week or two ago to put out the huge Kwinana wild fires ?

    If so, what was the response?

    The presence of one or two large aircraft in WA yesterday could have doused this Wooroloo fire before it got a foothold, and saved endless misery and millions of dollars to the WA and Australian economies.

  8. Whilst some Labor (Vic) and Liberal (SA) state govts are stuffing the EV move even before it it gets going with new taxes. On top of the inane and idiotic rwnj talking points repeated here and elsewhere about their beloved unicorn tradies on behalf of the LNP and Morrison.

    States’ EV tax grab will hurt fleets, jobs, and secondhand market, say experts
    https://thedriven.io/2020/11/24/states-ev-tax-grab-will-hurt-fleets-jobs-and-second-hand-market-say-experts/

    The ACT Greens/Labor govt is boosting it with free rego and interest free loans for EVs, fed Greens calling for turning govt fleet EV, as Biden apparently has done for the US

    ACT drivers to access free rego and zero interest loans for electric cars
    https://thedriven.io/2020/11/17/act-drivers-to-access-free-rego-and-zero-interest-loans-for-electric-cars/

    Electrifying federal government fleet could be done at fraction of new cost estimates
    https://thedriven.io/2021/02/02/electrifying-federal-government-fleet-could-be-done-at-fraction-of-new-cost-estimates/

  9. Boerwar,

    Ok the Proud Boys was a bit of a stretch. Yes, they are good at what they do, they are overpaid to blazes but the point doesn’t change, they are generally as dumb as dog shit. That is why they are tradies!

    We wonder why are building costs are one of the highest in the world. Well have a look at costs to employ these people.

    PS : I’m not a greenie or inner suburb elite either.

  10. I was quite impressed with Leigh Sales actually asking some good questions of Chris Bowen tonight.

    Quite telling was when she asked Bowen what specific jobs could people from places like the Hunter look forward to, and Bowen really couldn’t answer other than in a sweeping generalised way.

    Nailed it 🙂

    Labor needs to be able to front up to town hall meetings and tell people what specific jobs they will have to look forward to and also make it clear to them that this isn’t some other decade, its *this* decade. Chris did speak about moving forward in his job and talking to experts, which is fair enough. But where is all the research that the Labor organisation has done over the past few years?

  11. Also disappointed at Chris for suggesting that Labor’s policies would yet again be about “getting the right settings” – rather than direct co-investment in new industries, ARENA style.

  12. Quoll says:

    The ACT Greens/Labor govt is boosting it with free rego and interest free loans for EVs, fed Greens calling for turning govt fleet EV, as Biden apparently has done for the US

    ACT drivers to access free rego and zero interest loans for electric cars
    https://thedriven.io/2020/11/17/act-drivers-to-access-free-rego-and-zero-interest-loans-for-electric-

    yeah yeah. Cheapest EV is what, around $43,000? Greens inner urb wealthy people scooped up the rooftop solar panel tariff scams as well. Plus all the EV money goes O/S.

    Labor’s plan to build EV assembly plants to build cheap urban runabout EVs in Townsville and the Hunter will generate jobs AND Australian profits.

  13. Socrates @ #835 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 6:20 pm

    Most private cars (>80%) are driven less than 100 km per day. EVs are perfectly suitable for that.

    The first thing is true, and the second rationally follows. Except that car purchases are seldom based on reason.

    Someone who mostly only drives tens of kilometers a day still wants to buy a car that can do a 500km road trip, even if they really don’t need it. If people need to be reasoned into EV’s, it’s not going to work for possibly as much as 40% of the population (basically the same cohort who can’t be reasoned out of supporting Trump, or into vaccinations or even taking simple steps to stop spreading covid). And then it just becomes an endless culture-wars thing.

    EV’s need to make sense, and also to win (or at least be competitive) at all the other nonsensical metrics people use when choosing a car.

  14. borewar:

    [‘Only an inner urban far left elite Greens would bother with a supercilious and nasty sneer such as this.]

    Your pretentiousness is only exceeded by your arrogance, your verbosity. Please get a grip in the wake of your Churchillian reference, your Sinophobia.

  15. It’s a pity Leigh Sales doesn’t conduct interviews with government Ministers the way she does with Shadow Ministers.

    Nevertheless, it’s good she pointed this out in a question:

    Quite telling was when she asked Bowen what specific jobs could people from places like the Hunter look forward to, and Bowen really couldn’t answer other than in a sweeping generalised way.

    As the workers in the Hunter and in the Gladstone Basin or wherever coal mines are in Queensland, already know the answer. That is, yes, jobs in Renewables are going to be available on an upward trend as jobs in the Fossil Fuel mines decrease, however not all jobs in fossil fuel extraction are going to disappear and be replaced by jobs in Renewables and anyway, who wants to give up their $200000/year job in the fossil fuel industry for a $50000/year job in the Renewables industry?

  16. Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8:23 pm
    I was quite impressed with Leigh Sales actually asking some good questions of Chris Bowen tonight.

    Quite telling was when she asked Bowen what specific jobs could people from places like the Hunter look forward to, and Bowen really couldn’t answer other than in a sweeping generalised way.

    That was just Sales’ attempt at a gotcha -demanding that Bowen provide specific details and if he did, the LNP & MSM would use what he said to attack Labor.

  17. The Greens equation: 10% is simply not good enough to get good things done.
    Sad. But true.

    Reality actually is: with that sizeable chunk of the vote and the Senate representation it gives them, Labor cannot achieve any of its legislative goals (that are opposed by the Coalition) without the Greens. They actually have a bit of leverage here.

  18. Rational Leftist @ #861 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 8:48 pm

    The Greens equation: 10% is simply not good enough to get good things done.
    Sad. But true.

    Reality actually is: with that sizeable chunk of the vote and their Senate representation, Labor cannot achieve any of its legislative goals (that are opposed by the Coalition) without the Greens. They actually have a bit of leverage here.

    Which negatively affects Labor’s Senate vote if they are seen pandering to The Greens. Especially in an election campaign.

  19. boerwar @ #856 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 5:00 pm

    Increasingly they are seen as highly desirable marriage partners.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/new-research-reveals-nine-per-cent-of-aussie-tradespeople-make-more-than-200000-per-year/news-story/f8c65f157784e129f49a87ce23b175a0

    Hmm. 9% of tradies make more than $200k. Hmm. This makes them “highly desirable marriage partners”. Hmm.

    TRADIES have been revealed as the worst wife bashers in Queensland’s domestic violence capital, the Gold Coast.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tradies-account-for-half-of-all-men-accused-of-domestic-violence/news-story/6761269b943226dfdb88996410b7cad3

    With only 9% of them making “good” money, and 50% of them potential wife-bashers, the statistics actually say they are increasingly undesirable.

    So, fuck ’em. Labor needs to not make any policies that cater to these arsehole’s whims.

  20. DP,
    You don’t bin a policy because of a social problem. You develop a policy to fix the problem.

    And anyway, as anyone in the court business will tell you, DV perpetrators come from all walks of life.

  21. ‘Danama Papers says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8:56 pm

    So, fuck ’em. Labor needs to not make any policies that cater to these arsehole’s whims.’

    Uh huh. The inner urban elites’ moral and intellectual superiority is an absolute selling point for Labor in regional seats.

  22. Rational Leftist:

    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8:48 pm

    [‘…Labor cannot achieve any of its legislative goals (that are opposed by the Coalition) without the Greens.’]

    You’ve hit the target. It’s time that the Labor Right comes to terms with this fairly simple equation, though I don’t hold much hope thereof, the moribund DLP still extant in certain circles within Labor, some still resting on the altar of B.A. Santamaria. I don’t mean you OC(?).

  23. Reality actually is: with that sizeable chunk of the vote and their Senate representation, Labor cannot achieve any of its legislative goals (that are opposed by the Coalition) without the Greens. They actually have a bit of leverage here.

    They do. There have been times the Greens have had the final say whether bills get passed, amended, or blocked with 10% of the vote.

    Some paint the Greens as a ‘historic’ split in the Left and the third force in politics. Truth is the Greens benefited by the implosion of the Australian Democrats. Greens wouldn’t be in the position they are today if the Australian Democrats hadn’t voted for the GST or undermine Natasha Stott Despoja.

    There not too far from what the Australian Democrats achieved as a minor party with the exception that they got 1 seat in the House of Reps.

  24. C@tmomma @ #873 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 5:41 pm

    who wants to give up their $200000/year job in the fossil fuel industry for a $50000/year job in the Renewables industry?

    Anyone who finds themselves unemployed because their industry doesn’t exist anymore.

    If they were clever about things they would have amassed a small fortune to put away for that rainy day that was always inevitable. One way (no-one buying fossil fuels), or the other (automation), their jobs gone. Permanently, and far sooner than they can begin to imagine.

    Or did they piss most of that money away on discretionary items (boats, jet-skis, mine’s bigger than yours SUVs, tradies utes, etc.)?

  25. ‘Rational Leftist says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8:48 pm

    The Greens equation: 10% is simply not good enough to get good things done.
    Sad. But true.

    Reality actually is: with that sizeable chunk of the vote and the Senate representation it gives them, Labor cannot achieve any of its legislative goals (that are opposed by the Coalition) without the Greens. They actually have a bit of leverage here.’

    So, tell me how that is gone for the last 30 years? Working well, is it? I can truly understand why the Greens want to hang onto their policies. They are there, year after year, not changing much, on their policy site. But however admirable the policies are in substance, the policies are only good enough to get rejected year after year by 90% of the electorate. The Greens are a political fringe operation try to sell fringe policies to an electorate that has had 30 years to study the policies and that has rejected them for 30 years.

    So, the Greens are left to hoping that they will be able to blackmail Labor in the Senate some time in the future. Labor will need us some time soon, they aver earnestly while working hard to ensure that Labor will never be in a position to need the Greens. Cognitive dissonance?

    In election after election the centre left and far left vote is fractured into two parties. Then the Coalition wins and the Coalition is truly wrecking the joint. We could blame the Greens. We could blame Labor. But the fractured vote, combined with competing election campaigns, combined with both parties being coloured with totally unpopular Greens policy suite, is the electoral killer.

    Morrison sure is lucky!

  26. Anyway, it’s been raining cats & dogs on the Goldie. I’ve lived here for over twenty years, never having seen such sustained rainfall before. Perhaps the climatologists are right: the Tropic of Capricorn is moving south? It’s goodnight from him.

  27. C@t

    A lot of the higher paying jobs resulting from mining aren’t direct employment (yes, you can get close to $100k driving a mining truck, with some overtime but those jobs are very few). Rather a lot of the higher paying jobs are for 3rd party services. Tradies and the like. A lot of those kinds of jobs will still exist if they’re servicing other industries. This is one reason why I like the idea of heavy industry including steelmaking returning to Newcastle.

  28. Australia’s cricket tour of South Africa is off.

    Cricket Australia today informed Cricket South Africa that it believed it had “no choice” but to postpone the tour due to COVID-19, a media release confirmed on Tuesday.

    The three-Test tour, which was scheduled to start early March, will not go ahead after it was determined South Africa poses an “unacceptable” level of risk for Australia’s players and support staff.

  29. Ok, a straw poll of two Tradie men formerly married to close family friends.

    One was/is a racist OneNation supporter, with 2GB glued onto his car radio – air conditioning mechanic by trade.

    Two was a hoon and a DV perpetrator – scaffolding business owner, Liberal voter.

    I don’t think either was ‘dumb as dogshit’, rather the libertarian streak pumped up by the ABN conditions of ‘small business’ caused both of these Westies to denounce their ALP heritage.

  30. Cud Chewer @ #875 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 9:18 pm

    C@t

    A lot of the higher paying jobs resulting from mining aren’t direct employment (yes, you can get close to $100k driving a mining truck, with some overtime but those jobs are very few). Rather a lot of the higher paying jobs are for 3rd party services. Tradies and the like. A lot of those kinds of jobs will still exist if they’re servicing other industries. This is one reason why I like the idea of heavy industry including steelmaking returning to Newcastle.

    Direct jobs in Mining + Mining Services + affiliated tradespeople + service industry jobs in the local area + transport jobs + refining jobs, does not equate to just a few people. It’s a canard of the left that mining only delivers a few jobs, when it’s the truth that, as DP points out, a lot of their earnings get spent this way:

    Or did they piss most of that money away on discretionary items (boats, jet-skis, mine’s bigger than yours SUVs, tradies utes, etc.)?

    So, the point is, Labor have to find a way to speak to these people and the lifestyle they wish to maintain via their livelihood.

  31. Steve777 @ #859 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 8:12 pm

    First Dog – how does the PM do it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/02/is-scott-morrison-the-luckiest-prime-minister-of-all-time?utm_term=aeed3e0dab2cbad5f6aa07a08a5414bd&utm_campaign=FirstDogOnTheMoon&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=firstdog_email

    This cartoon hints at more things that Labor can campaign on. The Morrison Government is venal, corrupt and incompetent.

    First Dog completely nails it. Morrison wins because the opposition is more useless than a chocolate teapot 🙁

  32. I have a friend whose son is a Plumber. he was a Lib Dem supporter until they imploded. Bought the line about them being the party of rugged libertarian individualists.

  33. FWIW, the easy majority of tradies (plumbers, electricians, plasterers, painters, landscapers, builders, appliance repairers, sewer guys, …) whose help I’ve ever needed, work their arses off and are easy to get on with, specially if you offer support as appropriate. What they are is tightly focussed and unfailingly polite. What they do is harder than it looks, and often more complex. There are exceptions, but I’ve met plenty of “white collars” I wouldn’t care to socialise with. Some folks you like and some you don’t.

  34. Apparently Planet Janet in the SmearStralian tomorrow is ‘exposing’ industry super funds relations with the ALP.

    This is less ‘no shit Sherlock’ and more ‘Murdoch fakeNews’, as the ‘expose’ should be about how industry super funds are backing Australian companies and industries across the spectrum. Some of these investments are very profitable and/or strategic – most are not playing to the ‘woke-folk’.

    An example from the guardians of some of my super, namely the biggest of the industry funds, AustralianSuper. Their investments include:

    – half of WestConnex toll road in Sydney, traffic booming as commuters shun public transport for CovidSafe self driving
    – majority stake in ASX listed Syrah Resources, mining graphite (used in EV batteries) in Mozambique and upstream processing in Louisiana USA
    – majority stake in ASX listed Pilbara Resources, mining Lithium (used in EV batteries) in WA, with global upstream processing partners

    In the recent past, the LNP promoted past, these investments would be from offshore – with the only local beneficiaries being bankers and consultants – as the local pool of capital was restricted to rent seeking.

    No wonder Murdoch and his running dogs are down-ramping industry super…

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