The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor drawing level on two-party preferred, after trailing 51-49 in the previous poll from late November. That headline-grabber aside though, the poll finds the pollster maintaining its trademark low volatility, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%.
Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese record similarly sized negative movements in their personal ratings, though from a much higher base in Morrison’s case. Morrison is down three on approval to 63% and up three on disapproval to 33%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 41% and up two to 43%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 60-28 to 57-29. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the results, and currently records a slight Coalition lead of 50.4-49.6 and a trend of very slow decline in Morrison’s net approval since its blowout in late March.
south:
The top-line difference in variance between 1500 and 7000 is not terribly large. It’s possible some subsamples are very small, though.
I would assume that weighting by state is one of the factors used.
A bigger problem is that the poll doesn’t appear to have the variance that a 1500 sample poll should have.
Now that Newspoll has your attention, a reminder that the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive is in progress. Those wishing to take pity on a struggling artist may do so by clicking on the “Become a Supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of the post.
William
Your pointillist style and line art aren’t half bad.
Don’t know whether I believe those figures or not, but hopefully Labor can push hard with its strengths.
Now more than ever we need people who are capable and (more important) willing to build resilience into and across our society, healthcare, economy, environment and other systems. We currently have a mob with short-sighted, narrow vision, who only know how to hollow everything out. They have either stalled, or are proposing to take us backwards, in major areas such as banking/finance reform, political reform, industrial relations, I.T, reconciliation, social welfare, and the environment, to name a few.
The Coalition are reluctant builders, forever arguing it’s never the appropriate time for anything, they’re too busy for this or for that, and that they can’t simultaneously walk and chew gum. The only thing that seems to excite them is their fetish for irrelevant culture wars and punishing people.
It’s not a great idea to put in charge of a project people who don’t believe in it.
Goll@12.40pm
The Anti-Albanese brigade can come forward for your spanking!
The hat and the new female friend gives a rather Curtinesque mystic to the renewed Labor leader Mr Albanese and it only remains for Mr Albanese’s staff to organize rooms at the Kurrajong.
Mr Albanese will be looking forward to guiding Australia through its current conflict with the Chinese, continuing the fight to starve off the Covid war while repairing the fiscal lunacy created by the inept Morrison and his sidekick “Robin” Frydenberg.
Mr Albanese first job as PM will be install Monsigior Abbott in the Holy See and provide counselling for the about to be newly unemployed Kevvie Andrews as he join the ranks of the over 60s, finding it difficult to gain active employment while making do on his parliamentary pension of $4000pw, his free travel and using his franking credits to get by.
George Christiansen is said to be relocating to the convent he sponsors in Manila.
Marge Dutton will join the newly formed Home Affairs Volunteers and dedicate himself to patrolling Australia’s vast shorelines to prevent further incursions by pommie backpackers here to work as au pairs and partying at Bondi Beach.
Greg Hunt is outraged that labour hire fruit pickers are to be given access to medicare and the right to join a union.
The entire National party is said to be outraged that the new Albanese government is going recognise the existence of Australia’s 50,00 year old indigenous population.
Mr Joyce, the leader without portfolio is incensed that the Mac fella has allowed this to happen and added that the next thing to go wrong will be the recognition of water rights for Australia’s inland river system.
Angus Taylor is returning his unknown ill begotten gains in protest at the Austalian people exercising their democratic rights.
Mr Morrison said that this new development was part of his plan and he intends to relocate to his now affordable waterfront in the Shire and hang out with Gall.
Apparently George Brandis, Joe Hockey and famed order of Australia recipient Arthur are negotiating their flights home and are enraged that each of them in turn is unable to bring back through customs, a bookcase, a set of Donald Trump golf clubs and an unexplained chairmanship of a dodgy water company.
Amanda Vanstone is said to be organizing a another sojourn in her beloved Italy where they can bloody well make proper pasta and the wine as cheap as a cup of coffee and a sandwich.
Magda Szubanski has been announced as Mr Albanese choice for Governor General.
Am I getting ahead of myself on hearing about the latest polls?
Drunk with delight perhaps!
Goll,
Lol!!
Here’s hoping.
Wonder if this will now take the pressure off calls for a change of leadership
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/01/31/newspoll-50-50-19/comment-page-1/#comment-3550037
It may temporarily moderate their number and intensity, however I don`t think they will go away as he is too insipid and lacking in ability to seize the narrative.
“It pains me to say, but Lazy Susan and Dutts still have political careers that are relevant. The same cant be said of Broadbent or Kim Il Carr, for example. Or Joel – now he’s decamped to the backbench.
Snowden is interesting: he keeps winning a marginal seat, which has its own oddities. However, surely it must be time for Territory Labor for renewal.”
Warren Snowden announced he would be retiring at the next election three weeks ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/01/morrison-commits-19bn-to-australias-vaccine-rollout-as-he-prepares-to-withdraw-pandemic-payments?
In which #scottyfrommarketing states:
“You can’t run the Australian economy on taxpayers’ money forever”
Hmmm
Oh yeah and that never ending $2b gets trotted out again.
Fran Kelly introduces the morning with the introduction.
Anthony Albanese’s tells Australians he is on their side when people are wondering whether those in his party will ever be their pick. (wtte)
She is interviewing him later but needed to underline her bias by restating the MSM narrative of last week.
caf says:
Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 11:10 pm
Newspoll still isn’t bouncy enough.
Seven polls since the last election, all in the range 50-50 to 52-48. Where’s the occasional 54-46 or 47-53 the other way outlier? It’s just not behaving like a random sampled poll.
Exactly. News Poll is basically saying, we can no longer collect a random sample.
Christian Porter and one is reminded of “some mothers do have them”.
frednk
The problem is that Christian Porter has a cruel profile, and he isn’t at all funny.
Government policy is to beat you when you’re down.
lizzie @ #16 Monday, February 1st, 2021 – 6:57 am
Regardless, in the US, local independent Pharmacies are being very effective in getting Covid vaccinations delvered to the population.
“Labor defies news media narratives…” Despite the efforts of the heavy hitters on Insiders yesterday, it is obvious that the media must do better.
So why was the National Guard underprepared in stopping the invasion of the Capitol? Perhaps instructions from the Trump late appointment as Defense Secretary had something to do with it….
Lest we forget 😆 .
I was at the next 1 day game they played which was at a jam packed Eden Park in Auckland. The reception Chappell and crew received ? I still remember thinking it must have been how it was at the Colosseum when the christians got tossed to the lions. Top game though, advantage swinging back and forth before NZ won. Although the result may reflect some ‘self preservation’ given the crowd.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/opinion/300215511/how-new-zealand-cricket-fans-view-the-underarm-incident-40-years-on
This is astonishing considering all the media fluff pieces for Morrison and attacks on Labor.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe writes about a new report which shows federal political parties have received $1.1 billion from hidden donors in a trend towards greater secrecy over two decades.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hidden-donations-highlight-grave-weakness-of-australian-democracy-20210131-p56y70.html
On this matter, the Age’s editorial says that it is time to repair the chinks in our democracy. It declares that after the states did the work on the pandemic, it is Canberra that now needs to work hard for Australia to grow its way back and go beyond the economy’s sub-par starting point of flat wage growth, sluggish productivity gains and low business investment.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/time-to-repair-the-chinks-in-our-democracy-20210128-p56xf1.html
The latest global Corruption Perception Index (CPI) rankings places Australia at 11 out of 180 countries. This is behind countries like New Zealand, Denmark and Germany and on par with Canada, the United Kingdom and Hong Kong, explains The Conversation.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australia-no-longer-in-top-ten-global-anti-corruption-ranking,14752
The editorial in the AFR says that the Prime Minister has missed the chance to use the opening set piece address of 2021 to underline Australia’s need for a truly fresh start.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/canberra-must-work-harder-for-australia-to-grow-back-better-20210131-p56y42
Josh Frydenberg is sounding upbeat about the Australian economy but while 2021 will be very different from last year, the challenges are just as confronting, writes Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/back-to-business-but-destination-unknown-20210131-p56y7l
Patronage on buses, trains and ferries in Sydney is down 44 per cent over the course of a year as COVID-wary commuters choose to drive to work instead.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/road-traffic-returns-to-pre-covid-levels-as-commuters-shun-public-transport-20210129-p56xw7.html
Anthony Galloway reports that Australia’s former top diplomat, Phillip Flood, says the government needs to approach China with “more nuance” and be wary of being drawn into a United States policy of confrontation with Beijing.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-dfat-boss-urges-government-to-adopt-more-nuance-in-china-dealings-20210129-p56xvt.html
Thanks to Scott Morrison, Australia is in the bad books with the two most powerful nations on the planet, writes Stephen Fitzgerald.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-foreign-relations-rating-an-epic-fail,14751
Jennifer Duke tells us that a lobby group representing more than 130,000 older Australians wants an overhaul of the federal government’s reverse mortgage scheme for retirees, warning the interest bill is too high and out of step with the record low official cash rate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slash-interest-rate-bill-on-reverse-mortgages-for-retirees-seniors-lobby-group-20210131-p56y48.html
A jaded Jacqui Maley says that this year there has been no Australia, not really – there has been a collection of states and territories acting according to the interests of their populations, held together in loose collaboration, but more often than not, at odds with each other.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-is-no-such-thing-as-australia-anymore-the-pandemic-killed-it-20210129-p56xt5.html
Finance professor, Raymond da Siva, looks at the current issues facing the hedge fund players. Oh for the days when share prices reflected the true value and potential of companies.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-stop-the-game-it-s-nothing-new-20210129-p56xs9.html
Greg Hywood opines that with its shrill threats, Google is risking losing the media fight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/shrill-threats-google-risks-losing-media-fight-20210131-p56y6e.html
And Phill Coorey tells us that Microsoft has discussed with Scott Morrison expanding its Bing search engine into the Australian market should Google withdraw in protest over plans to force tech giants to share revenue with media outlets for republishing their content.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/microsoft-tells-pm-it-could-fill-google-void-20210131-p56y5y
Epidemiologist Michael Toole thinks that the Tokyo Olympics plan is tempting disaster.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/tokyo-olympics-plan-is-tempting-disaster-20210125-p56wim.html
Law professor, Michael Douglas, examines the recent Joe Aston defamation judgement. The central issue is that under Australia’s Defamation acts, one may have a right to express an honest opinion, provided one express it as an opinion, not as a fact.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aston-defamation-case-confronting-for-a-reason-20210131-p56y6l.html
Ross Gittins gets back onto his hobbyhorse, beginning this contribution with, “The study of economics has lost its way because economists have laboured for decades to make their social science more mathematical and thus more like a physical science. They’ve failed to see that what they should have been doing is deepening their understanding of how the behaviour of “economic agents” (aka humans) is driven by them being social animals.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-economics-could-get-better-at-solving-real-world-problems-20210131-p56y5e.html
Andrew Leigh wants to see, for Australia’s benefit, the reinvigoration of globalisation post-Covid.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7104851/engaged-egalitarianism-reinvigorating-globalisation-in-the-post-covid-age/?cs=14258
According to David Crowe, Scott Morrison is about to commit $1.9 billion to ramp up vaccinations at hospitals, surgeries and pharmacies in a pledge to protect health while weaning the economy off the “blank cheque” of endless federal payments.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/no-more-blank-cheques-morrison-speech-on-economy-vaccine-rollout-20210131-p56y7r.html
Karen Maley explains why Frydenberg made his explosive ASIC move.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-frydenberg-made-his-explosive-asic-move-20210131-p56y4v
Rosie Batty has some sage and experience advice for the new Australian of the Year, Grace Tame.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/what-i-wish-for-grace-tame-rosie-batty-s-open-letter-to-the-australian-of-the-year-20210129-p56xu1.html
And it’s a sad farewell to Mr Grecian 2000 who will be missed like a healed carbuncle.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/kevin-andrews-toppled-in-preselection-battle-for-menzies-20210130-p56y2h.html
Dennis Shanahan rips into the Victorian Liberal Party after it tossed out Kevin Andrews.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/scott-morrisons-failure-to-act-will-come-back-to-bite-at-election-time/news-story/244649168e7951c185acef17ce03b17c
And now the idiotic Craig Kelly is facing twin challenges to hold on to his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, with moderate Liberals and a local campaign hoping to blast him out of federal Parliament.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pete-evans-in-the-party-room-liberals-independents-line-up-to-take-on-craig-kelly-20210129-p56xwf.html
Doctors must now prescribe drugs using their chemical name, not brand names, and that’s good news for patients writes Matthew Grant.
https://theconversation.com/doctors-must-now-prescribe-drugs-using-their-chemical-name-not-brand-names-thats-good-news-for-patients-153796
Australia could expect US President Joe Biden to send a “high-quality” ambassador to Canberra to represent his government, the last person picked for the role in the Obama administration has said.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7106476/president-biden-wont-delay-in-appointing-high-quality-ambassador-to-australia/?cs=14350
There is a way to make the UK government face justice over the Covid tragedy, proposes Nesrine Malik.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/covid-justice-tragedy-uk-tories
Robert Reich explains why Republicans won’t agree to Biden’s big plans and why he should ignore them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/republicans-biden-covid-trump-congress
Trump’s entire crack impeachment defence legal team has walked away. What a circus!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-loses-lead-impeachment-lawyers-a-week-before-trial-20210131-p56y6o.html
Channel 7 host and former White Ribbon chairman, Andrew O’Keefe, was arrested by police and charged over an alleged domestic assault on his partner in Sydney early Sunday morning.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/channel-7-personality-andrew-o-keefe-facing-domestic-violence-charge-20210131-p56y8p.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
John Shakespeare
Matt Golding
Mark Knight
Johannes Leak
Mark David
From the US
caf
The lack of bounce has been a feature for a while. Since the election pollsters have been pretty keen on staying close to 50-50. But even before that the lack of ‘bounce’ around the quoted margin of error was pretty suspicious. Someone was using a ‘guiding hand’ to remove the random from random variation.
I see south came along to piss all over the poll result last night. You just can’t please some people. I wonder why?
A jaded Jacqui Maley says that this year there has been no Australia, not really – there has been a collection of states and territories acting according to the interests of their populations, held together in loose collaboration, but more often than not, at odds with each other.
Hello from New South Ralia to the Victralians, South Ralians, Westralians, Tasralians and Queenslanders! 😀
From Dawn patrol
Could be fun for patients if they use full names 😆
Common anti inflamatories
Ibrufen => 2-(4-Isobutylphenyl)propanoic acid
Paracetamol – N-(4-hydroxyphenyl)acetamide, N-(4-hydroxyphenyl)ethanamide
Has Connor’s Underarm ‘respect’ wrong’un squared off the Chappelli underarmer?
The latter was only a meaningless game of cricket.
The former was a direct verbal assault on a friendly nation and military ally struggling with tens of billions in economic punishments by the largest despotism the world has ever known
boerwars
Funny you should say that as…………………….
lizzie @ #16 Monday, February 1st, 2021 – 6:57 am
Channel 9 also ‘helps out’ by making their Sydney premises available for Liberal fundraisers. $750,000 raised towards the next election.
On election day If Labor can get to a primary vote of 36%+ ,and the libs/nats combined primary lower than 42% , Labor will be in a reasonable size Majority government
IF Labor can surmount the fear campaign the Coalition will throw at the electorate about them AND get to 36+%, THEN they will win government.
p
haha!
I have to agree with Goll from the last thread. The hat has helped Albanese’s image. It’s the little things.
Another poll showing opinions evenly divided and not much overall change since the last Election.
The start of the political year this week might see voters start to become engaged given we have numerous stories that there will be an Election this year.
But, the Government will be pleased that their Covid responses seem to have gone down well overall and Labor can be pleased that their non-hysterical approach to politics during Covid has also been well received. Contrast that with Lib Leaders in NT, Qld., and Victoria.
The Government seems to be gearing up for a “We won Covid” campaign which I believe would be a mistake. Voters are always looking to the future and are remarkably unsentimental towards Governments and Politicians doing victory laps.
To me, the Election, if there is one, is shaping up as being about debt and deficit, jobs and job security and general economic management. So, very traditional.
Sure Climate Change, Leadership, Corruption, the fall out from the US Election and our trading relationship with China will all get a run. But, I’m guessing that people will be focussed on their families and their local communities when the the pencil hits the paper.
Thousands detained in Russia amid rallies for Alexey Navalny
Moscow (CNN)Record numbers of protesters were detained in Russia on Sunday, as demonstrations erupted across the country in support of detained opposition leader Alexey Navalny.
At least 5,045 people were detained, with more than 1,600 in Moscow alone. That marks a record-high in detentions since 2011, when OVD-Info, an independent site that monitors arrests, started recording such figures.
Among those detained on Sunday was Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, who was later released.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/31/europe/russia-navalny-protests-intl/index.html
Infuriating poll for the Press Gallery today.
Actually what I have been noticing is the Alt Press Gallery beginning to influence perceptions. Senior respected journalists like Michael Pascoe, Michael West, Dennis Atkins, Paul Bongiorno and most of the gang at The Saturday Paper, Business Insider and The New Daily are prepared to challenge the prevailing Coalition narrative and this is only a good thing for the health of our democracy.
C@t
Yes, the old warrior journos have been released from their former editorial serfdom and are enjoying the freedom.
For a sample size of about 1500, the margin of error in a fair poll would be about 2.6%. If the underlying situation was 50-50, you would expect bounces between 47-53 and 53-47 with the occasional result outside these bounds.
If SmoCo thinks he can win on the back of his COVID-19 response, he is sadly mistaken. Most punters know it is the Premiers who have done all the heavy lifting and the stories of Australians not being to get back home is being blamed on him for not doing enough.
In addition, plus the wind back of the Jobseeker stimulus, the impending withdrawal of JobKeeper in March. He is going to be very careful going forward.
C@tmomma @ #35 Monday, February 1st, 2021 – 8:12 am
You mean like a string of pearls?
The coalition killers don’t need much to start up a ‘real Albo’ meme.
Election strategies from decades ago c/Antony Green
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-11-18/prospects-for-the-next-nsw-election/9389094
[Let me quote how Nick Greiner described his 1988 campaign, the quote taken from the book “Reform and Reversal: Lessons from the Coalition Government in New South Wales 1988-95” by Martin Laffin and Martin Painter.
“We ruthlessly separated the issues of getting elected from the issues of governing. I literally had a draw for elections and a drawer for government. In the drawer for getting into government we had ‘truth in sentencing’ and populist things that were liable to win you votes. In the drawer for governing we had microeconomic-type steps, ones that were difficult to sell politically even though they proved to be right and successful. We had directions rather than policies that avoided the pitfalls of detail. I remember the transport one which managed to convey in positive terms the directions [in which] we were going to go rather than we are going to shed 33 percent of the workforce … In most cases we had a directions speech which we published and in most cases we had a policy behind it which we didn’t publish.”]
mundo @ #42 Monday, February 1st, 2021 – 8:23 am
It won’t work. Not with Scott J.Morrison and his plethora of fakery on the opposite side. It’s just a hat and it is being worn for protection. However, the point is that it is the right hat.
Who IS the Real Scott J.Morrison anyway? Does anybody know?
Not sure what the talk of Anthony Albanese’s new hat (and new lady friend?) is about. I Googled “Albanese hat” and came up with Lindsay Albanese:
”Lindsay Albanese is a Los Angeles based established fashion stylist, TV personality, inventor, social influencer and businesswoman.”
https://www.lindsayalbanese.com/pages/about-us
Presumably no relation, but maybe that’s where he got the hat.
‘SNL’ takes on Marjorie Taylor Greene, GameStop and Tom Brady
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/31/media/snl-wall-street-gamestop-marjorie-taylor-greene/index.html
Morrison and his cronies will not win on covid response when the reality is
Morrison and his cronies did not want the borders to close.
Morrison and his cronies did not want schools to close.
Morrison and his cronies did not want every day activities to close.
Morrison and his cronies wanted people to live with covid, if you die bad luck.
Morrison and his cronies more worried about thier donors and big businesses over people’s health and lives.
Morrison and his cronies attacked the Labor states/territories in closing the border , because it hurts the economy , not worried about people lives and health
Morrison and his cronies join Palmer and Hanson court cases to open the borders
The latest newspoll is wrong it is really 53/47 to our great LNP who will next election by a landslide and Scott Morrison will be our PM for another three years
I see Edwina/Wayne/LvT has clocked on. 😀
If SmoCo thinks he can win on the back of his COVID-19 response, he is sadly mistaken. Most punters know it is the Premiers who have done all the heavy lifting and the stories of Australians not being to get back home is being blamed on him for not doing enough.
Anthony Green said the same thing on a election podcast after the Queensland state election. He seemed to think the pandemic was more advantage for state governments rather then federal.
Scott Morrison really shouldn’t be taking the credit. This is because he’s been happy to attack Labor premiers on there managing of it for political purposes. Simply to assist his state colleagues who are struggling to gain any traction in opposition.