Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

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  3. Kelly is preparing to do some bunny ears.

    On the Guardian, Tanya Plibersek has her finger generally aimed in the direction of Kelly’s centre of mass.

    It is all just gesticulation at less than Covid safe distance.

  4. Guardian: Kelly claims there are at least a dozen of his colleagues who have privately told him they support him making his claims.

    Lizzie: About as believable as his medical smarts.

    Mundo: I believe it. We are talking about the coalition.

    I think that Mundo could well be right. The Liberals and especially the Nationals are very right-wing these days. They include people (like Kelly) who a couple of decades ago would have been regarded as far right, even nut-jobs. Some of them get pre-selected and elected.

  5. Simon Banks
    @SimonBanksHB
    ·
    11h
    So @ScottMorrisonMP who is just about to spend millions to post his pro-vaccination campaign on Facebook

    Tells Australians to not get their advice from Facebook

    While allowing one of his own MPs to post anti-vaxxer disinformation – on Facebook

  6. Pollbludger says
    “The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.”

    An interesting approach. It assumes those who don’t express a 2PP opinion are representative of minor party voters from the last election and their preferences remain the same and at the same time differentiates between those who do express a 2PP opinion and those who do not.

    It would be interesting to see those 2 groups split out.

  8. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #44 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:31 am

    Where is the evidence of the Coalition being loathed in the wider electorate?

    Anecdotal, but definitely real. For instance, I was in town yesterday chatting to someone I had never met before. Politics came up in conversation, and the subject was raised by them, not me. Smirko came in for a particular roasting. My partner had a similar experience the previous week in two different conversations.

    We quickly learned not to discuss politics when we first moved to regional Australia, but recently everyone seem to be discussing it- and the discussions are generally not favorable to the COALition. I should say that they are not all that favorable to Labor sometimes either (which is understandable given that we live in NSW) but the COALition always gets a serve, especially Smirko.

    Of course, this could be exaggerated because we live in one of the badly bushfire affected areas – but if you think about it, that description actually covers an awful lot of ground. This year, sadly, it is Perth’s turn. Why does Labor seem unable or unwilling to capitalize on this?

  9. Tanya knew the cameras were rolling.

    I reckon she was lining up a couple of hundred thousand extra female votes for Labor.

    That’s why she was smiling.

  10. Player One @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 6:46 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #44 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 9:31 am

    Where is the evidence of the Coalition being loathed in the wider electorate?

    Anecdotal, but definitely real. For instance, I was in town yesterday chatting to someone I had never met before. Politics came up in conversation, and the subject was raised by them, not me. Smirko came in for a particular roasting. My partner had a similar experience the previous week in two different conversations.

    We quickly learned not to discuss politics when we first moved to regional Australia, but recently everyone seem to be discussing it- and the discussions are generally not favorable to the COALition. I should say that they are not all that favorable to Labor sometimes either (which is understandable given that we live in NSW) but the COALition always gets a serve, especially Smirko.

    Of course, this could be exaggerated because we live in one of the badly bushfire affected areas – but if you think about it, that description actually covers an awful lot of ground. This year, sadly, it is Perth’s turn. Why does Labor seem unable or unwilling to capitalize on this?

    😆 😆 😆

    How scientific!

  11. Bowen said even though Australia would continue to export coal for “many years” to come, it was important to recognise coalmining communities would come under pressure.

    He argued the choice was between a government that “shrugs its shoulders and says let the market rip” or a government that says “we will invest in communities, we will invest in individuals and help you through that change”.

    Bowen – who replaced Mark Butler as climate spokesperson in Anthony Albanese’s reshuffle last week – said Australia could create thousands of jobs with “a pro-investment, pro-jobs climate change policy”.

    Bowen told Guardian Australia last week that the Liberals had “weaponised climate change quite destructively as an anti-jobs message” so he saw his key task as winning the debate that good climate policy was also good for jobs and the economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/03/nationals-coal-push-disrupts-scott-morrisons-climate-policy-pivot?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  13. The Kelly incident is a political bonus, his demeanour portraying the archetypal Tory bully in meltdown as he doubles downs on his crazy theories for treating C.19. Plibersek came out of it very well, standing up to Kelly’s overbearing manner. Morrison knows he’s on a hiding to nowhere with Kelly but is hamstrung on what he can do about Maria. Great start to the parliamentary year.

  19. ‘Too crazy even for Newsmax’: Internet mocks MyPillow’s Mike Lindell after host leaves disaster interview

    The MyPillow CEO has been captured by QAnon conspiracy theories to such a drastic degree that he’s about to experience an expensive lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems.

    Lindell, a former crack addict who turned his life into crafting “overpriced” and “sub-par” pillows, according to critics, has made millions that he’s given to former President Donald Trump.

    But things got even crazier during Lindell’s Tuesday appearance on Newsmax, when he loudly tried to repeat his conspiracy theories talking over host Bob Sellers. The host ultimately walked off the set after he tried to kill the interview, presumably fearing litigation against the network.

    https://www.rawstory.com/mike-lindell-mocked-newsmax-cancels/

  20. ajm:

    Wednesday, February 3, 2021 at 9:50 am

    [‘Tanya knew the cameras were rolling.

    I reckon she was lining up a couple of hundred thousand extra female votes for Labor.’]

    I reckon you’re right. They were terrible optics.

  22. I reckon you’re right. They were terrible optics.

    Damn right. Salmon pink suit! Or is it peach?

    Katich ducks, runs then hides for the rest of the day in disgrace.

  25. So after Robodebt was raised again the other day, I thought I’d sort out the logic, given there is a “last resort” clause to pursue debt under Labor’s process. Let’s consider what happens to a case under both Labor’s and the Coalition’s processes:

    Income averaging does not flag case:
    – Coalition’s process -> does not pursue debt.
    – Labor’s process -> does not pursue debt.

    Income averaging flags case:
    – Coalition’s process -> pursues debt.
    – Labor’s process -> further investigation:
    A) evidence found rejecting debt -> does not pursue debt,
    B) evidence found confirming debt -> pursues debt,
    C) inconclusive -> further human decision required to pursue debt, the “last resort”.

    The question here is what part or branch of Labor’s process is the same as the Coalition’s?
    A is not the same:
    – The Coalition’s process unlawfully pursues a debt, whereas
    – Labor’s process does not pursue it at all.
    B is not the same:
    – The Coalition’s process unlawfully pursues the debt on the sole basis of the averaged income.
    – Labor’s process has produced another basis on which to lawfully pursue the debt.
    C might produce a similar outcome to the Coalition in some cases, but the process followed to get there is not equivalent. Labor’s process had to determine there was no other information whereas the the Coalition’s process did not. Also, a human had to make the decision to continue with the process (though how they would decide this is vague) whereas the Coalition’s proceeded automatically. Nevertheless, if a decision was made to pursue debt at this point under Labor’s process, this would now be unlawful.

    So given there is one (now unlawful) branch of Labor’s process that is similar to the Coalition’s, are Labor the architect of the Coaliton’s process? Did the Coalition merely continue what Labor had started? Can Labor’s process be described as anything as vague as “an income averaging process”?

    No. That would be like saying “Labor built an arch, the Coalition took out the keystone and it collapsed, so Labor built a collapsed arch and it’s all their fault”. The Coalition excised a significant part of the process and bear responsility for what followed:
    1) the Coalition’s process unlawfully pursued cases ruled out under Labor’s, indeed
    2) *every* case where the Coalition’s process pursued a debt was unlawful (even when further evidence could have been found confirming the debt) because the Coalition’s process used the averaged income as sole basis in *all* cases.

    Labor are not entirely off the hook, but did not architect the Coaliton’s process. The Coalition did not “merely” continue Labor’s policy. While Labor’s process had one branch that would now be unlawful, the Coalition made significant changes to the process that rendered the *whole* thing unlawful.

    The court did not rule anything so vague as “an income averaging process is unlawful”. The court ruled that pursuing a debt on the sole basis of income averaging was unlawful. That rules out one branch of Labor’s process, and the *entirety* of the Coalition’s.

    Income averaging as a sub-process within a larger process is not ruled out either, as long as it’s not used as the sole basis to pursue a debt.

  27. Very sad about the death of Sir Tom.

    My friend in France lost her cousin in Aberdeen to COVID-19 yesterday (my friend is actually Scottish).

    And as I mentioned, the conference I am involved in has been badly hit.

    COVID-19 is incredibly deadly, and the northern hemisphere is being ravaged.

    I would suggest around May, Victoria should negotiate to not take international arrivals over the winter.

    Right at the beginning of the pandemic, the parallels between Melbourne’s climate and that of Lombardy were stressed to point out the danger to Victorians. Nothing has changed yet as far as vaccinations or treatment go to make Melbourne at any less risk than last winter.

  28. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/02/03/essential-research-2pp-labor-47-coalition-44-undecided-8/comment-page-1/#comment-3551087

    Cleo or Cosmo girl at the top, Speers on Insiders, … Fran (Aus Broadcasting not Commies but wCxyz, I miss O’Brien, Cassidy, Kohler …

    Pretty soon SBS/ ABC will no longer be fit for purpose, if perhaps of some use to gov of the day, no wonder many get their infotainment/ gossip/ sports from social media (news from independent media).

    Oh wait … the fed gov will contract with IBM (as in CensusFail) on behalf of the Greens, rather than Microsoft, to really sort Fxyzbook and don’t be evil – I make data easy to find, but the gov wants to get a share of ad dollars to redistribute to a needy Murdoch Infotainment, some overseas HQ-ed orgs are more needy than others, especially org religious ones – Google?

  29. Of course in Sydney, this winter we will not heat our homes, and will continue to eat outside shivering on our sunny winter days, and so have an advantage.

    However we still need to be VERY vigilant, and keep the physical distancing, mask wearing and hand sanitising up.

  30. The reasons Banks resigned from the Tory Party:

    [‘Julia Banks announced that she would not contest the seat of Chisholm at the next federal election. She described the ousting of Turnbull from the Prime Ministership as the “last straw” and cited a “cultural and gender bias, bullying and intimidation” of women in politics.’]

    Feeds seamlessly into the narrative of the Kelly/Plibersek exchange. No Labor ad could top it. And while it doesn’t quite match Gillard’s misogyny speech, the incident is nevertheless receiving widespread exposure in the MSM and social media.

  32. Google is getting into paid ‘quality’ journalism (one billion $ international funds). That’s what Morrison is trying to shut down in Australia on Murdoch’s behalf.

  35. Douglas and Milko:

    Wednesday, February 3, 2021 at 10:20 am

    [‘Very sad about the death of Sir Tom.’]

    Yes, what a trooper. I’m sure he’ll get a good send-off,
    most likely paid for by the state.

  36. In news that surprises no one:

    Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1
    Breaking WSB-TV: Pro-Trump attorney Lin Wood is under investigation by the Georgia Secretary of State over whether he voted illegally in the November election.

  38. The Player campaigning against Labor and against climate change policy and communication.

    They are to the bludgers what Barnaby Joyce is to the coalition.

  39. This doesn’t surprise me either. More corruption by #GuiltyGladys:

    The inquiry into the Integrity, Efficacy and Value for Money of NSW Government Grant Programs heard that the Premier approved a $20 million grant in Wagga Wagga without going through the required approval process.

    Moreover, the grant was announced during the Wagga Wagga by-election that was sparked by the resignation of Daryl Maguire over corruption claims; Mr Maguire is, of course, the person with which Ms Berejiklian had a ‘secret relationship’ during that time.

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/teflon-gladys-inquiry-hears-fresh-evidence-of-corruption/

  42. It really is amazing that a photo of a finger point can deflect a debate so much.

    Look here, as was pointed out earlier.

    https://www.theguardian.com/au

    Click on the blog link and the next photo you sees paints a much better picture.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/feb/03/scott-morrison-vaccine-pacific-leaders-rba-reserve-bank-chief-charts-australias-economic-recovery-australian-politics-live-coronavirus-sydney-melbourne-parliament-covid-19

  43. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    BREAKING Craig Kelly was immediately hauled in for a dressing down by the by PM today. PM believes he has agreed to restrain his social media and support the government’s vaccine strategy. @newscomauHQ

    Now Craig, you see this wet lettuce leaf…?

  44. Such authority!

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    5m
    BREAKING Craig Kelly was immediately hauled in for a dressing down by the by PM today. PM believes he has agreed to restrain his social media and support the government’s vaccine strategy.

    The Guardian blog

  46. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #84 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 10:28 am

    Player One @ #NaN Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 7:15 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #71 Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021 – 10:13 am

    Reality, such a mixed message!

    KISS

    How much simpler could you state that coal mining will continue at a declining rate for a number for a number of years in Australia.

    That is indeed one of the messages Labor is trying to send with their mixed messaging.

    The other one is that “Coal has a future”.

    Now, remind us again how well this worked out for Labor in the previous election … ?

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