The year ahead

Informed speculation suggests a federal election will be held in the second half of this year, though views differ as to whether it will be sooner or later.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, who is always well plugged into government’s line of tactical thinking, wrote on Monday on the likelihood of a federal election in the second half of this year ($) rather than the first half of the next, that being the full extent of the window for a normal election of the House of Representatives and half the Senate. This basically boils down to a view that the government’s perceived current dominance means the sooner it goes the better, tempered by a desire to avoid an election in winter.

An unidentified Liberal MP quoted in The Australian ($) said they were “almost certain” they were “almost certain” the election would be in August or September, although another felt November more likely since an earlier election would be seen as too opportunistic. Why November would be a whole lot better on that count is unclear, since there seems to be no particular obstacle to Morrison holding out until May next year, by which time it will have been a full three years since the last election. For what it’s worth, the latter MP was also quoted saying it “also depends on if Labor ditch Anthony Albanese and get someone more electable”.

In more definite news for the year ahead, the Western Australian state election is set for March 13 — I am presently furiously hard at work on my election guide, which I can assure those of you who like that kind of thing will be a classic of its genre. As for opinion polling, the silly season proved no obstacle to Newspoll last year, which opened its account with a poll conducted from Wednesday, January 8 and Saturday, January 11, so there may be action on that front this or (probably more likely) next weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,782 comments on “The year ahead”

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  1. Sorry about this.
    “He is no stranger to Shoalhaven Heads, having stayed there over Christmas in 2018, and returning early 2019 for the pub’s big charity day.”

  2. C@tmomma @ #3596 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 3:05 pm

    Apparently, ‘Biden Harris Inauguration’ flags have been hung across from the West Wing of the White House where Trump can see them from the residence. 😀

    That reminds me of the absolutely brilliant mega multistorey picture of Cathy Freeman that was projected onto one of Sydney’s sky scrapers and royally pissed on that French 400 m drug test avoider who under pressure became a non starter.

  4. ItzaDream @ #3423 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 3:17 pm

    C@tmomma @ #3596 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 3:05 pm

    Apparently, ‘Biden Harris Inauguration’ flags have been hung across from the West Wing of the White House where Trump can see them from the residence. 😀

    That reminds me of the absolutely brilliant mega multistorey picture of Cathy Freeman that was projected onto one of Sydney’s sky scrapers and royally pissed on that French 400 m drug test avoider who under pressure became a non starter.

    And then Cathy won. 🙂

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, January 15, 2021 at 3:03 pm
    lizzie @ #3413 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 2:58 pm

    @10NewsFirst
    · 10m
    PLOT TWIST IN #SAVEJOE CAMPAIGN: Investigations into the origins of a pigeon facing euthanasia are underway after the American Racing Pigeon Union wrote online that ‘Joe’ sported a counterfeit US identification band.
    At last McCormack has something of importance that he can “look into”.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1349925275694338050
    It’s Pistol and Boo Redux 2021.

    Something for Border Farce to sink its teeth into. Will they rustle up a leaky fishing boat to transport the pigeon back to the US or wherever it came from? Or is destined for Nauru or Manus?

    On the other hand it arrived by air and everyone know that arrivals by air have a much easier time than arrivals on leaky fishing boats.

    This requires the potato’s full attention (whenever somebody can find him).

  8. ItzaDream @ #3598 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 3:13 pm

    I’m reposting this. Whatever else it reveals about Govt (in)competence – foresight, planning, good relationships, prejudices – it does point to the situation that we seem to be stuck with AZ vaccine: the variable efficacy depending of this, that and the other, the cheap, easy to manufacture, and the easy to transport one.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2021/01/14/coronavirus-australia-in-negotiations-for-more-vaccines-but-pfizer-doses-out-of-reach/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020210114

    “Professor Kelly said Australian officials had actually been in negotiations with Johnson & Johnson over its promising vaccine, and that the company had begun its application process to be registered in Australia.

    However, the CMO said that was now “off the table”.

    “I’m not at liberty to talk in detail. There were issues we were not able to agree on with Johnson & Johnson, mainly in their court,” Professor Kelly said.

    “We were unable to reach agreement.”

    He also added that Australia had only been given the chance to buy 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough for five million people.

    “We posed the question [to Pfizer] ‘How many vaccines can you give us in the first half of 2021?’ and they gave us an answer,” Professor Kelly said.

    “That answer was 10 million. We are continuing and having many conversations with them … [including] any possibility that we could increase that number.

    “At the moment, that is what it is. And frankly, there are other countries in the world that need it more than we do right now.”

    It’s unclear when more doses would be available.

    But Pfizer said in December it would not be able to manufacture as many doses globally as it had hoped, due to raw material shortages.

    “Professor Kelly said the government was “in virtually constant discussion” with Pfizer, and hoped to access more supply.

    “If there were more doses available to us, we would look into whether that was a feasible option for us to get more. So far, that’s not the case,” he said.

    “We can follow up with any of the other vaccines next year, once they become available. And more will be available to us in 2022 than is currently the case.”

    He said the government was also in “conversations” and “active negotiations” with Moderna and a dozen other companies, for other vaccine deals.

    Professor Kelly added that Australia was also “putting in bids” through the global COVAX facility for more vaccine doses, which could include Moderna or Pfizer.””

    Kelly providing a lot of cover there for the muppet show.

  10. Socrates @ #3578 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 2:25 pm

    There were some quite silly comments the other night about the economics of coal and renewable power and batteries.

    Certainly were.

    It is privately funded by AGL, who see it as the most cost effective solution to a stable grid.

    Australia has among the most expensive retail electricity prices in the world. Precisely why we need to be looking at the cheapest form of energy storage that will do the job, rather than the most profitable for private companies.

    On a side note – I notice that Australian journalists still don’t seem to understand the difference between MW and MWh 🙁

  12. Matilda Boseley
    @MatildaBoseley
    ·
    3m
    #BREAKING – Tullamarine deaths – Police have “formed the preliminary view that the 42-year-old woman is responsible for all four deaths”. The 48 year old man has been released without charge.

  14. Trad would be a strong voice for transition to sustainable jobs – someone federal Labor needs in Qld.

    @Rex Douglas

    I agree and I like Jackie Trad very much, but I can see some problems for her running in Longman. It won’t be easy to win back it on it’s own. Parachuting a candidate that it’s well known she doesn’t live in the area would possibly create further headaches.

    These high profiles candidates being parachuted in usually never work. Peter Beattie being parachuted to run in Forde in 2010 is a perfect example.

    Also Courier Mail has sprouted this crap about Trad in the past. They have suggested she could run in Bundamba, Toohey, and for a senate seat. Its well known they have a agenda against this woman.

  16. P1: ‘On a side note – I notice that Australian journalists still don’t seem to understand the difference between MW and MWh’

    Australian journalists in the MSM are probably the worst in the developed world. Many Australian cartoonists are among the best, however.

  17. Richard Denniss
    @RDNS_TAI
    ·
    2h
    Massive savings are proof the government has failed to target its stimulus to those who need it most not an excuse to stop stimulating #auspol #ausecon #COVID19

  18. Lizzie
    “@10NewsFirst
    · 10m
    PLOT TWIST IN #SAVEJOE CAMPAIGN: Investigations into the origins of a pigeon facing euthanasia are underway after the American Racing Pigeon Union wrote online that ‘Joe’ sported a counterfeit US identification band.”

    Why kill the pigeon? I thought the Federal government’s usual approach was to send all undocumented illegal immigrants to Christmas Island? The cost of such an absurd policy never stopped them before.

  19. Political Nightwatchman @ #3613 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 3:34 pm

    Trad would be a strong voice for transition to sustainable jobs – someone federal Labor needs in Qld.

    @Rex Douglas

    I agree and I like Jackie Trad very much, but I can see some problems for her running in Longman. It won’t be easy to win back it on it’s own. Parachuting a candidate that it’s well known she doesn’t live in the area would possibly create further headaches.

    These high profiles candidates being parachuted in usually never work. Peter Beattie being parachuted to run in Forde in 2010 is a perfect example.

    Also Courier Mail has sprouted this crap about Trad in the past. They have suggested she could run in Bundamba, Toohey, and for a senate seat. Its well known they have a agenda against this woman.

    If Trad has an appetite for hard work and personal engagement, I think she could win the voters over.

  25. ItzaDream @ #3589 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 2:49 pm

    Socrates @ #3587 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 2:41 pm

    Downfall parodies may be gone from Youtube but they live on elsewhere in the web.
    https://www.captiongenerator.com/2098022/Trump-reacts-to-his-Twitter-being-suspended#.X_j8tiH-Jk0.reddit

    It’s interesting how actually sickening it is, his arguably very predictable words played out in uniform.

    Schadenfreude seems closer to the mark to me. More so as the days tick away.

    Also waiting for him to try and strike a ‘deal’ out of his self made debacle.

    Not that he gives a flying fcuk for anyone but himself.

  28. Donald Trump Jr. Sought for Questioning by Prosecutors in D.C.

    Donald Trump Jr. was asked by the Attorney General’s office in the District of Columbia to sit down for questioning in relation to a lawsuit claiming President Donald Trump’s inaugural committee illegally overpaid for events at a Washington hotel owned by his family business.

    D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine sent a formal deposition request to Donald Trump Jr., spokesman David Mayorga said Thursday.

    Racine’s office sued in January 2020, claiming that Trump’s inaugural committee made an unjustified payment of more than $1 million to the Trump hotel for events from Jan. 17, 2017, to Jan. 20, 2017, after failing to consider less expensive alternatives.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/donald-trump-jr-sought-for-questioning-by-prosecutors-in-d-c?srnd=premium-asia

  29. Hong Kong Exodus Could Spur $36 Billion in Outflows, BofA Says

    Hong Kong could see capital outflows of as much as $36 billion this year as residents leave the city for the U.K. in response to China’s sweeping security law, keeping the local dollar off the strong end of its trading band with the greenback.

    That’s according to a study by Bank of America Corp. More than two-thirds of the city’s population would be eligible for a path to British citizenship, according to the U.K government, which has offered the immigration route in its response to the law that was rapidly enacted in the former British colony last summer.

    The route is due to officially open at the end of this month. This year 153,300 people could relocate to Britain, strategist Chun Him Cheung wrote in the note this week, with the estimate based on U.K. government data.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/hong-kong-exodus-could-spur-36-billion-in-outflows-bofa-says?srnd=premium-asia

  30. dave @ #3627 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 4:08 pm

    Donald Trump Jr. Sought for Questioning by Prosecutors in D.C.

    Donald Trump Jr. was asked by the Attorney General’s office in the District of Columbia to sit down for questioning in relation to a lawsuit claiming President Donald Trump’s inaugural committee illegally overpaid for events at a Washington hotel owned by his family business.

    D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine sent a formal deposition request to Donald Trump Jr., spokesman David Mayorga said Thursday.

    Racine’s office sued in January 2020, claiming that Trump’s inaugural committee made an unjustified payment of more than $1 million to the Trump hotel for events from Jan. 17, 2017, to Jan. 20, 2017, after failing to consider less expensive alternatives.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/donald-trump-jr-sought-for-questioning-by-prosecutors-in-d-c?srnd=premium-asia

    Lock him up.

  31. I wonder when Australia is going to realise that offering an immigration path to Hong Kong residents is a good idea, for us.

  32. Donald Trump plans to fly to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida the morning of Joe Biden’s inauguration, where several current White House staff are expected to work for him or his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, after his presidency, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Trump intends to live at the Palm Beach resort, the people said, though some of his future neighbors are trying to stop him from taking up permanent residence.

  37. I just read that humans and their domesticated animals make up 96% of all mammalian biomass on the planet.

    Domesticated fowl more that triple the biomass of wild birds.

    Next time someone complains about all the corellas (or wombats) annoying them I am armed and ready.

  38. India continuing to struggle with injury.

    Great stat from the cricinfo coverage. Now Saini is off the field, the highest Test wicket-taker out there is Marnus Labuschagne, with 12.

  40. Simon Katich @ #3637 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 4:22 pm

    I just read that humans and their domesticated animals make up 96% of all mammalian biomass on the planet.

    Domesticated fowl more that triple the biomass of wild birds.

    Next time someone complains about all the corellas (or wombats) annoying them I am armed and ready.

    but wait ….. there’s more

    Production of concrete, metal, plastic, bricks and asphalt is now greater than mass of living matter on planet.

    … at the beginning of the 20th century, the mass of human-produced objects was equal to about 3% of the world’s total biomass. But in 2020, human-made mass has reached about 1.1 teratonnes, exceeding overall global biomass.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/09/human-made-materials-now-outweigh-earths-entire-biomass-study

  42. Interesting….

    International students launch campaign to return to Australia amid border closures

    SYDNEY (Reuters) – An official petition to Australian lawmakers urging them to exempt international students from border closures has received nearly 3,000 signatures, citing “bad quality” online lessons and lack of schooling for some.

    The petition, which is backed by social media campaign #bringusbacktoaus on Twitter, needs 12,000 signatures from Australian residents or citizens before Feb. 10 for it to be tabled before lawmakers for a discussion.

    “These are students from all over Asia, all over the world,” said Phil Honeywood, Chief Executive, International Education Association of Australia.

    “Those who are not citizens have families here. The Indian and the Chinese communities, for example, have cousins or friends who are signing on their behalf.”

    “We appeal exemptions for international students not only for students’ future and human right but also for the recovery of the Australia economy.”

    Australia has been considering bringing back students since last year though plans stalled following fresh coronavirus waves in Victoria and New South Wales.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia-students/international-students-launch-campaign-to-return-to-australia-amid-border-closures-idUSKBN29K0G8?il=0

  43. The ABC – naturally – thinks this is a good thing for the coal industry …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-15/newcastle-coal-exports-continue-to-new-markets-amid-china-ban/13060130

    In another win for the industry, thermal coal prices rose significantly at the end of 2020, up from a low of around $US50 a tonne, where many Australian coal producers are cash negative, to now above $US80 a tonne.

    I prefer to think of it as a good thing for the planet. The problem with coal has always been that the true cost is not reflected in the price, and – despite what the gibbons here may claim – the demand for coal is not really declining yet.

    I don’t think China is doing this for our benefit, but I for one am happy for them to carry on embargoing our coal. The sooner coal becomes uncompetitive with renewables, the better off we all will be.

  46. Original article with that photo – not a care in the world!

    The Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be enjoying the laidback vibe of the South Coast on his week’s holiday.

    He paid a visit to the Shoalhaven Heads Hotel on Thursday, according to a post on the pub’s Facebook page…

    The visit came in the midst of a pretty busy holiday season for the pub and the town generally, both popular with people from the Sutherland Shire.

    “We tend to get a lot of people from around there,” Leslee said.

    The PM mixes it with locals on Thusrday evening at the Shoalhaven Heads Hotel. Photo: Facebook

    https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/7087401/holidaying-pm-drops-into-the-shoalhaven-heads-hotel/?cs=203

  47. ‘Simon Katich @ #3637 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 4:22 pm

    I just read that humans and their domesticated animals make up 96% of all mammalian biomass on the planet.

    Domesticated fowl more that triple the biomass of wild birds.

    Next time someone complains about all the corellas (or wombats) annoying them I am armed and ready.’

    Oh dear. City posters, beware.

    Most of the Bluder posters would be living in real life the truth about constructed mass + human biomass in their homes being far greater than wild biomass – even allowing for a greater than normal population of feral rats living related sewers.

    SK, if you are in this category, you are neither armed nor ready. Arguably, you are doing your part.

    OTOH, on our land, the wombat biomass is far larger than the human biomass. Further, the biomass of all wild animals and plants on our land is larger by far than the biomass of domestic stock on our land.

  49. Mr Morrison has that sort of shit-eating grin on his face that says, ‘I would rather be having a piss up somewhere else, but this will have to do.’

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