Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, who is always well plugged into government’s line of tactical thinking, wrote on Monday on the likelihood of a federal election in the second half of this year ($) rather than the first half of the next, that being the full extent of the window for a normal election of the House of Representatives and half the Senate. This basically boils down to a view that the government’s perceived current dominance means the sooner it goes the better, tempered by a desire to avoid an election in winter.
An unidentified Liberal MP quoted in The Australian ($) said they were “almost certain” they were “almost certain” the election would be in August or September, although another felt November more likely since an earlier election would be seen as too opportunistic. Why November would be a whole lot better on that count is unclear, since there seems to be no particular obstacle to Morrison holding out until May next year, by which time it will have been a full three years since the last election. For what it’s worth, the latter MP was also quoted saying it “also depends on if Labor ditch Anthony Albanese and get someone more electable”.
In more definite news for the year ahead, the Western Australian state election is set for March 13 — I am presently furiously hard at work on my election guide, which I can assure those of you who like that kind of thing will be a classic of its genre. As for opinion polling, the silly season proved no obstacle to Newspoll last year, which opened its account with a poll conducted from Wednesday, January 8 and Saturday, January 11, so there may be action on that front this or (probably more likely) next weekend.
3,782 comments on “The year ahead”
C@tmomma @ #3747 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 9:35 pm
He’s asked for Tump to pardon him. His attorney says he was only doing what Trump asked !!
ItzaDream @ #3575 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
And if he goes to jail, the only organic food he’ll get will be if someone in the kitchen spits into it.
Bernie Sanders on the Insurrection and other things:
Perhaps there were tourists caught up in events. I guess they would have tickets or some proof of legitimate attendance. But I wouldn’t include people who “were close by, felt they were going to a normal demo for their team” in that category.
Part 2 of the interview:
Part 3 of the interview of Bernie Sanders by Stephen Colbert:
What a nice little doggie – can he be a witness in the Senate “Trial”.
Just something more to bash trump with etc.
Give him some tofu 🙂
Bolsonaro is playing Russian Roulette with the Brazilian people’s lives:
You got me thinking. OH pointed out that the Capitol building is closed to tours due to covid, links below. I can’t find when that policy started, but I would be stunned if it only started after January 6, 2021. I think it’s safe to assume that no genuine tourists would have been in the building during the attack.
“ The Brazil Manaus #COVID19 epidemic is getting epically worse. And many scientists suspect it might be because of the new Brazil P1 variant of #SARSCoV2, which has many multiple mutations. Quick thread ”- Dr Eric Feigle- Ding
C@t – Its out of control – He couldn’t give a fcuk.
He takes the usual hardline right-winger position; concern for life basically stops as soon as it exits the womb.
U.S. says Capitol rioters meant to ‘capture and assassinate’ officials – filing
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal prosecutors offered an ominous new assessment of last week’s siege of the U.S. Capitol by President Donald Trump’s supporters on Thursday, saying in a court filing that rioters intended “to capture and assassinate elected officials.”
Prosecutors offered that view in a filing asking a judge to detain Jacob Chansley, the Arizona man and QAnon conspiracy theorist who was famously photographed wearing horns as he stood at the desk of Vice President Mike Pence in the chamber of the U.S. Senate.
The detention memo, written by Justice Department lawyers in Arizona, goes into greater detail about the FBI’s investigation into Chansley, revealing that he left a note for Pence warning that “it’s only a matter of time, justice is coming.”
“Strong evidence, including Chansley’s own words and actions at the Capitol, supports that the intent of the Capitol rioters was to capture and assassinate elected officials in the United States government,” prosecutors wrote.
A public defender representing Chansley could not be immediately reached for comment. Chansley is due to appear in federal court on Friday.
The prosecutors’ assessment comes as prosecutors and federal agents have begun bringing more serious charges tied to violence at the Capitol, including revealing cases Thursday against one man, retired firefighter Robert Sanford, on charges that he hurled a fire extinguisher at the head of one police officer and another, Peter Stager, of beating a different officer with a pole bearing an American flag.
In Chansley’s case, prosecutors said the charges “involve active participation in an insurrection attempting to violently overthrow the United States government,” and warned that “the insurrection is still in progress” as law enforcement prepares for more demonstrations in Washington and state capitals.
Axios reports: The post-Trump GOP is gutted.
They lost their congressional power.
Their two leaders, Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, are hamstrung by corporate blacklisting of their election-denying members.
The GOP brand is radioactive for a huge chunk of America.
The corporate bans on giving to the 147 House and Senate Republicans who voted against election certification are growing and virtually certain to hold.
The RNC is a shell of its former self and run by a Trump loyalist.
Democrats crushed them in fundraising when they were out of power. Imagine their edge with it.
Sheldon Adelson, the party’s biggest donor, died Monday.
The NRA is weaker than it has ever been, after massive leadership scandals.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, once controlled by rock-ribbed Republicans, also gave to Democrats in 2020.
Rank-and-file Republicans are now scattered on encrypted channels like Signal and fearful of Big Tech platforms.
That long haired thug seen bashing, repeatedly, a cop with the American flag is on camera saying that the only thing the occupants of Congress deserve was death.
Regarding the horned “QANon Shaman” who invaded the Capitol and lives at home with his mother:
“He’s asked for Tump to pardon him. His attorney says he was only doing what Trump asked !!”
That has to be the stupidest pardon request ever made. To grant it, Trump would have to say he ordered the mob to attack the Capitol, which will be precisely the point in question in Trump’s own upcoming trial in the Senate. What was his lawyer thinking? Of all the dumb excuses…
Thanks for the encouraging overview of the state of the Republicans. When you consider that the demographic trends that brought the Dems victory in Georgia are only going to continue, the “map is shifting in their favour” as they say.
I was thinking that Labor is only an electable leader and an honest AFP away from the same in Australia. Despite current gloom, the biggest sources of COALition cash and influence (Murdoch press and coal) both are on their last legs. With Biden elected, promising action on climate change and now able to deliver it, the coalition will come under huge international pressure on its policies. And when Covid finally ends, and the curtain is drawn back, people will see the debt, and corporate Australia enriched by jobkeeper payments that often went to employers, not employees. This is the nadir in Australia for Labor, but the future will soon get better. If Morrison thought his long term prospects were good, he would not be planning for an early election.
Socrates @ #3766 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 11:29 pm
Socrates, yes, why I posted it – talk about catch 22.
Parents were branded fraudsters over minor errors such as missing signatures on paperwork, and erroneously forced to pay back tens of thousands of euros given by the government to offset the cost of childcare, with no means of redress. They were, as one junior minister who resigned in connection with the scandal put it, “steamrolled” by the system.
Families were left in a state of ruin, by a state apparatus that became “the enemy of the people”.
Relationships disintegrated under the pressure, homes were lost, mothers have spoken tearfully of the financial and psychological anguish they suffered after being targeted by tax officials.
Last year the tax office admitted that 11,000 people were subjected to extra scrutiny simply because they had dual nationality. This confession has reinforced the widely held belief among many ethnic minorities in the Netherlands that discrimination against them is institutionalised and perpetuated by those in power.
Sounds familiar ?
Socrates @ #3767 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 11:36 pm
They, the GOP, still have power in the judiciary.
Nice thoughts from you to turn in with. A disjointed ramble about this has got away from me, and not coherent enough for posting. I’m off to bed. But the timing of those scenarios is what most occupies me. Sleep well.
It would garner more public trust in the vaccine rollout if the Health Minister were more open, honest and less inclined to spin. And if the answer is that he really doesn’t know the efficacy of the AZ vaccine and won’t know until data from the latest trials comes out, then he should simply say so.
If confidence in our vaccination is important, you’d expect nothing less.
In the article the Health Minister and his office were being less than transparent regarding whether or not we are actually seeking herd immunity.
Very interesting article on Parler’s half baked moderation policies. Of course, violence and hate speech was perfectly okay, but nudity was off limits. Very American.
Cud Chewer @ #3772 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 2:49 am
Do they moderate out any discussions about HSR?
Follow the money!
Thanks for that link. What a group of evil, scheming (rich) shysters.
I had an intriguing thought about the American berserkers at the Capitol. So I was just wondering, how many of them were Home Schooled by their parents? America is rife with it and I would imagine it tends to produce isolated, insulated, narrow-minded, and dare I say it, easily brain-washed individuals?
You could pretty much guarantee the parents watched Fox News and the only socialisation the children got was at church and with their siblings.
How easy it would be for a demagogue to take advantage of them.
Zerlo @ #3769 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 12:46 am
And now in what is not a familiar scenario wrt the Morrison government, the Dutch government has resigned:
You would NEVER get so-called Christian, Scott Morrison showing that much principle and responsibility for his government’s actions.
Regrettably I suspect that the reports of the decimation of the GOP are overblown. The worst Presidential candidate in US history, arguably, received 74 million votes under the GOP banner. The GOP did considerably better than Trump in down ballot races and in conventional electoral terms has reasonable prospects of retaking the House and Senate in 2 years. It controls most State legislatures and has an outsized capacity to secure its position through gerrymandering. Its appointees have a generational lock on the USSC. The events of the last couple of weeks, including the Georgia run offs don’t mean nothing, and certainly aren’t favourable to the GOP. I’d be waiting for some months to assess how far, if at all, they have changed the fundamentals.
Taylormade “Terrible look for Andrews. Allowing in the tennis players from overseas whilst thousands of Victorians are still stranded interstate.
Bushire Bill “Fuck YOU, Taylormade. If he’d banned them you’d have been whingeing even louder.”
I think it’s important to try not to look at this issue through a partisan lens. Anyway, I assume the decision to proceed with the tennis was discussed at National Cabinet, so it’s not fair to place responsibility for it entirely on the shoulders of the Victorian Government.
Focusing on the decision itself, rather than on who made it, I can only say that I find it quite incomprehensible.
While large numbers of Victorian and other Australians are currently separated from their families for an indefinite period, we are allowing 1200 tennis players and their entourages to fly straight into Melbourne from some of the most disease-ridden locations on the planet.
Just one person in Brisbane with a case of the British strain of the virus led to the shut down of the whole city for several days, and to most other states reflexively slamming their borders shut to Queensland. And I believe that, in future, people with this strain can expect to be in hotel quarantine for a month or more.
But how many of the 1200 people coming her for the tennis might potentially have been exposed to this strain? Dozens, perhaps hundreds? But, far from being placed in indefinite quarantine, the players are going to be allowed out of their hotels several times a day to practice their tennis.
It’s one thing to bring a few dozen international cricketers here, but 12oo people at once?
I fear that Australian governments have collectively lost the plot on what they are trying to achieve with coronavirus. If we can merrily let something like the Australian Open ahead, well perhaps we could temper our cruelty to the Australian families trying to get home from various places around the world.
And, while I find it very hard to agreed with Joel Fitzgibbon on anything, I think he was spot on the other day when he said that the Federal Government should take the lead on this issue through National Cabinet. I understand that it isn’t easy, and that a more active stance by the Feds will create a political shitstorm with leaders like McGowan and Andrews. But it desperately needs to happen. The Australian Open should not have been allowed to go ahead IMO, and perhaps it still could be stopped. The Andrews Government is justifiably copping criticism for the massive inconsistency of it all, but I don’t think they’re the only ones who should be held responsible.
Friday, January 15, 2021 at 7:28 pm
Liberals allowed rich people in and out