The year ahead

Informed speculation suggests a federal election will be held in the second half of this year, though views differ as to whether it will be sooner or later.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, who is always well plugged into government’s line of tactical thinking, wrote on Monday on the likelihood of a federal election in the second half of this year ($) rather than the first half of the next, that being the full extent of the window for a normal election of the House of Representatives and half the Senate. This basically boils down to a view that the government’s perceived current dominance means the sooner it goes the better, tempered by a desire to avoid an election in winter.

An unidentified Liberal MP quoted in The Australian ($) said they were “almost certain” they were “almost certain” the election would be in August or September, although another felt November more likely since an earlier election would be seen as too opportunistic. Why November would be a whole lot better on that count is unclear, since there seems to be no particular obstacle to Morrison holding out until May next year, by which time it will have been a full three years since the last election. For what it’s worth, the latter MP was also quoted saying it “also depends on if Labor ditch Anthony Albanese and get someone more electable”.

In more definite news for the year ahead, the Western Australian state election is set for March 13 — I am presently furiously hard at work on my election guide, which I can assure those of you who like that kind of thing will be a classic of its genre. As for opinion polling, the silly season proved no obstacle to Newspoll last year, which opened its account with a poll conducted from Wednesday, January 8 and Saturday, January 11, so there may be action on that front this or (probably more likely) next weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,782 comments on “The year ahead”

Comments Page 72 of 76
1 … 71 72 73 … 76

  2. Guytaur
    The CEO’s might be Republican donors but many corporations donate to both parties and many leading business figures now support the Democrats.

  3. LR

    What I see is a split between civilised human beings and troglodytes. The US almost has the makings of a sci-fi plot where civil war has broken out and the civilised have to resort to barbaric practices (like keeping the savages behind a lethal electric fence aka Brave New World) in order to preserve civilisation.

  5. N

    Its not the extremist, armed ones that bother me

    Its the vast majority of insular, pig ignorant fools that bother me. The people who vote against their own best interest and are brain washed about “the commies”..

  6. Excellent news that Joe Biden is going with a realistic sized stimulus package for the USA, with a much needed boost to the minimum wage to $15/hr to top it off. All those who thought Biden would make no difference can go sit in the stupid corner. He has a much broader team (some conservative/some progressive) of economic advisers than Obama did.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-15/biden-unveils-trillion-dollar-coronavirus-recovery-plan/13060660

    Well spotted Guytaur – the $15US dollar /hr minimum wage would be quite close after conversion to Australia’s minimum wage, sadly unenforced on Australian farmers and labour hire firms.

    And obviously, the stimulus package can include investment in renewable power to meet climate change targets.

    There is actually a huge political and economic opportunity here for Biden. He can’t possibly be blamed for the current mess. If he gets the economy restarted, and reduces covid deaths, his popularity will soar.

  7. Considering their theocratic links, the paramilitary Republicans stand being compared with Hamas…another political outfit that benefits from use of force in the political theatre.

  8. Trump is toxic and his politics lost.

    The deep South state of Georgia specifically voted and told the GOP stick with Trump and lose.

    Trump is the biggest loser and the GOP knows this fact.

  10. Spray

    Reading that article I only get to the first paragraph before choking. Its the implicit claim that an elimination strategy inherently attaches itself to restrictions on life and travel.

    No, it doesn’t. You can keep an elimination strategy and have free travel. Indeed, having herd immunity is part of that.

  11. Cud Chewer says:
    Friday, January 15, 2021 at 1:51 pm
    N

    Its not the extremist, armed ones that bother me

    They certainly bother most Americans, including the ones you describe as ignorant…

    The irregular use of force is entirely inconsistent with the concepts of constitutional democracy. The irregulars will drive the rest away….or at least I hope so.

  12. Dandy

    You think the Nordic countries are communist dictatorships too?

    You think Labors industrial relations policies for the last century are communist?

  14. Socrates

    I’m wondering which Democrat Senators will object and to what. As I understand it, not all Democrats are on board with the idea of raising the minimum wage. And there’s other important reforms, like winding back Trump’s tax cuts. I’ll be impressed if Biden can get that past his Senators.

  15. N

    It’s very simple.

    Facts count. You can say as Kakaru eventually did I disagree that Biden can move the US to Nordic Style Capitalism.

    You cannot say the Nordic countries are not capitalist.

  16. N

    The extremists are enabled by the culture they live in. I’m not just describing a lot of people as ignorant. They are, truly, ignorant. And its this ethos that enables the extremists. The problem is therefore one of insularity, ignorance, lack of education. Call it what you will.

  19. CC

    Exactly why the Democrats did Impeach.

    Education to bursting the cultural religious thinking that the other side is evil incarnate has to be defeated.

    Edit: without that the US is doomed for a repeat. Bye bye democracy.

  20. Cud Chewer @ #3560 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 1:55 pm

    Spray

    Reading that article I only get to the first paragraph before choking. Its the implicit claim that an elimination strategy inherently attaches itself to restrictions on life and travel.

    No, it doesn’t. You can keep an elimination strategy and have free travel. Indeed, having herd immunity is part of that.

    Cud, you must be referring to the blurb at the top of the article. Don’t know if they are actually his words.

    Further down he states “Presumably, the proportion of the population vaccinated will be the major determinant for a move away from an elimination-type strategy, however public health advice is likely to be cautious.”

    In any case, I would encourage you to read the article. The guy knows what he’s talking about, and doesn’t have any political barrow to push. You come across as pretty open-minded, not sure why you would discount the views of someone at the forefront of battling this thing.

  21. Cud Chewer says:
    Friday, January 15, 2021 at 1:45 pm
    phoenix

    “Over time as events unfold, the ordinary Trump voters will start to look at this week’s events in a wider perspective, particularly when Trump is forced to face the judicial system and his creditors, while the insurrectionists are hauled up before the courts.”

    I think you’ve overestimated the rationality of these people. A lot of them truly are stupid.

    PhoenixRED was quoting me here. You’re not wrong about a lot of people stupidly refusing to listen to rational arguments. I suppose what is important is the ratio of ‘stupid’ to ‘rational’ people.

  22. CC

    In a place as big as the US it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. What Trump did last week was the equivalent of encouraging his mates to “peacefully” break down my neighbour’s door for a bit of rape and murder because “she’s nasty”. There is no turning back from that, though his mates will take longer to appreciate the enormity.

  23. Apologies of already posted. CNN getting some insider information on what’s going on in the White House –

    Trump getting angrier; won’t have a bar of being compared to Nixon, rejecting calls to resign, not the least because he doubts that Pence would pardon him; reverting back to Steve Bannon for advice; clueless about just about everything that matters now, like his legacy ….

    https://youtu.be/gPTSZ6z_6BM

  27. With the interpersonal situation apparently deteriorating at the White House, I wonder if guns are allowed inside the building (Secret Service excepted).

    Trump’s deteriorating mental state should be a danger signal to keep him away from any firearm, whether carried on his person or in a cupboard.

  28. There were some quite silly comments the other night about the economics of coal and renewable power and batteries. To underline the points that Yabba, Cud myself and others made, AGL is planning to build a very large (250MW for four hours) battery in Adelaide for grid storage.
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/01/14/global-companies-shortlisted-to-build-huge-torrens-island-battery/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=InDaily%20Express%20%20January%2015%202021&utm_content=InDaily%20Express%20%20January%2015%202021+CID_321d82838759bef2842e42bbad2493b4&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=Global%20companies%20shortlisted%20to%20build%20huge%20Torrens%20Island%20battery

    Note that this is not a government project, or government funded. It is privately funded by AGL, who see it as the most cost effective solution to a stable grid.

  29. Here’s an opinion that the ‘fascist’ label is now more than justified. (Hint: violence). This guy is interesting. I’ve come to him form the Salon piece posted earlier (thanks Victoria) which includes him interviewing Mary Trump. Boy she interviews well. Anyway, a New Yorker, he’s half Muslim (Pakistani father) and half Italian Catholic. When practising the law didn’t satisfy him, he took to being a stand up comic, in the interests of breaking down brown Muslim / white barriers, including making the film The Muslims are Coming.

    He’s now one of many Americans with their ‘own political show’. How many have we? Some of his stuff on youtube is very funny, and poignant.

    Dean Obeidallah (how’s that for a name). There’s not much new, but I like his laconic New York style.

    https://youtu.be/uX3YvDiR7xM

  30. Cud

    I have no idea who would vote against Biden’s plan, but they will face a lot of arm twisting if they try. Some moderate Republicans will vote for it too.

  31. Spray

    Because he’s not quite thought things through. As you say, in his own words he’s talking about moving away from an elimination type strategy. What he doesn’t consider is that given an effective vaccination program, an elimination strategy simply evolves.

    It goes like this.
    – We have herd immunity. Not perfect. Not uniform. But functional.
    – We insist on overseas arrivals being vaccinated. Or quarantined.
    – We insist on testing before arrival, a short stint of self isolation and follow up testing.
    – We only provide this level of freedom to countries that have brought the epidemic well under control. In the US that would look like a few hundred cases per day. Other countries get the full quarantine.

    Now in that scenario, the odds of someone making it through those barriers and sparking a cluster are quite small. Smaller than the odds are today, even assuming our HQ system has been tightened.

    Now, what he speaks of, about life being “normalised” I think is quite possible. And I think we’ll also have more confidence in our ability to deal with a sporadic case and that will pay off in terms of confidence.

    Of course, normal will still mean
    – Finding better ways to maintain testing rates
    – Covid check ins
    – Good hygene

    But, despite the possibility of sporadic cases, or even a cluster amongst a particularly less well protected group, I still call this a policy of elimination. Its not a “give up, don’t have any rules at the border and trust nature” policy.

    And it also speaks to why I distrust the “adults in the rooms” when they downplay the importance of vaccines being strong enough to control infectiousness, and not just protect the vulnerable. That herd immunity is why we can keep an elimination strategy even with overseas travel.

  35. CC

    It’s counter intuitive. However remember Andrew Yang got Trump supporters voting for his Universal Basic Income.

    For exactly the same reasons some GOP people will vote for the $2000 cheque.

    Politically they will be thinking how nice their face would look on the cheque.

    That’s the speech Biden just made.

  36. ‘Why are you so sure the republicans wouldn’t go with a women when many leading conservatives and reactionaries are women. The idea isn’t that far fetched when they ran Sarah Palin as their VP nominee in 2008.’

    I disagree. Sarah Palin was chosen by John McCain and didn’t have to go through a primary. Palin performance was generally insipid and since the gloss has come off Republicans see her candidacy as a failure. Palins candidacy was a blow for women in the Republican party who are ambitious. Peggy Noonan a conservative was frustrated that the woman they chose was so unqualified and Republican’s blew the selection.

    Because the 2008 US presidential election was a landslide loss and Palins awful performance. It’s generally discouraged Republicans the idea of selecting a woman for the nomination. This is further evidence by Carly Fiorina lack of traction running for the Republican nomination in 2016.

  40. Itza

    Yes there is another one about his election loss. It is disturbing to me to reflect how close it might have been to his actual words at the time.

  41. I’ve always loved the part where ‘Hitler’ takes off his glasses, manifesting the Parkinsons that he had. Very fine acting.

  42. @10NewsFirst
    · 10m
    PLOT TWIST IN #SAVEJOE CAMPAIGN: Investigations into the origins of a pigeon facing euthanasia are underway after the American Racing Pigeon Union wrote online that ‘Joe’ sported a counterfeit US identification band.

    At last McCormack has something of importance that he can “look into”.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1349925275694338050

  43. Its been reported in the Courier Fail Jacki Trad could attempt a comeback in the federal arena which has unions support. There is a suggestion she could run in Longman. I tend to think its hard for Labor to win Longman on current polling. Running Trad who will be a well known as a parachute will probably put her further behind the eight ball. I doubt it happens, particularly considering its been reported by the Courier Fail as a ‘possibility’ with nothing more to substantiate it.

    ‘Controversial former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad could be making a return to politics sooner than expected, with reports she has been offered a lifeline by the unions.

    Sky News reports union powerbrokers are canvassing Ms Trad’s potential return to politics, at a federal level and has the backing to be preselected this federal election.

    The Queensland boss of the United Workers Union Gary Bullock released a statement saying if Ms Trad were to return to politics the unions “will do whatever to assist that” and there are discussions in the unions about her return.

    “I’d like to see her in federal politics, I think we need more people of her calibre in federal parliament,” Mr Bullock’s statement said.

    The marginal Federal seat of Longman, currently held by LNP MP Terry Young, has been floated as a possibility.’

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/controversial-former-deputy-premier-jackie-trad-offered-shock-lifeline-back-into-politics/news-story/3bf090b9aa541b003cdeee470b3bc9de

  44. lizzie @ #3413 Friday, January 15th, 2021 – 2:58 pm

    @10NewsFirst
    · 10m
    PLOT TWIST IN #SAVEJOE CAMPAIGN: Investigations into the origins of a pigeon facing euthanasia are underway after the American Racing Pigeon Union wrote online that ‘Joe’ sported a counterfeit US identification band.

    At last McCormack has something of importance that he can “look into”.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1349925275694338050

    It’s Pistol and Boo Redux 2021. 🙂

  46. Apparently, ‘Biden Harris Inauguration’ flags have been hung across from the West Wing of the White House where Trump can see them from the residence. 😀

  48. The case of then-Secretary of War (1876) William W. Belknap, a man who lived the life of Riley on a fairly meagre salary ($8K) and who resigned before the House had the opportunity to impeach him, is now oft-cited as authority for supporting the contention that a government official can be impeached after having left office.

    After the Articles of Impeachment were received by the Senate, it agreed (37-29) that it did have the jurisdiction to convict Belknap but he avoided impeachment by virtue of the numbers, 35-25, 5 less than was needed for a two-thirds’ majority.

    With regard to Trump’s impeachment proceeding in the Senate, he may resign or he may continue in office until Jan, 20. It follows that in either event, there is precedent to proceed in the Senate with his impeachment. But that precedent has never been, to the best of my knowledge, judicially challenged and if it were, given that the principal penalty of impeachment is removal from office, he may well prevail. If I were him, I’d let the Supreme Court decide my fate, with three of his nominees on it. Whether it gets to this is anyone’s guess and does, of course, depend on whether a two-thirds’ majority is reached, which when the Dems take over will on my
    math be 15 Republican senators; that is, if all the Dems and two independents vote the anticipated way.

  49. I’m reposting this. Whatever else it reveals about Govt (in)competence – foresight, planning, good relationships, prejudices – it does point to the situation that we seem to be stuck with AZ vaccine: the variable efficacy depending of this, that and the other, the cheap, easy to manufacture, and the easy to transport one.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2021/01/14/coronavirus-australia-in-negotiations-for-more-vaccines-but-pfizer-doses-out-of-reach/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020210114

    “Professor Kelly said Australian officials had actually been in negotiations with Johnson & Johnson over its promising vaccine, and that the company had begun its application process to be registered in Australia.

    However, the CMO said that was now “off the table”.

    “I’m not at liberty to talk in detail. There were issues we were not able to agree on with Johnson & Johnson, mainly in their court,” Professor Kelly said.

    “We were unable to reach agreement.”

    He also added that Australia had only been given the chance to buy 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough for five million people.

    “We posed the question [to Pfizer] ‘How many vaccines can you give us in the first half of 2021?’ and they gave us an answer,” Professor Kelly said.

    “That answer was 10 million. We are continuing and having many conversations with them … [including] any possibility that we could increase that number.

    “At the moment, that is what it is. And frankly, there are other countries in the world that need it more than we do right now.”

    It’s unclear when more doses would be available.

    But Pfizer said in December it would not be able to manufacture as many doses globally as it had hoped, due to raw material shortages.

    “Professor Kelly said the government was “in virtually constant discussion” with Pfizer, and hoped to access more supply.

    “If there were more doses available to us, we would look into whether that was a feasible option for us to get more. So far, that’s not the case,” he said.

    “We can follow up with any of the other vaccines next year, once they become available. And more will be available to us in 2022 than is currently the case.”

    He said the government was also in “conversations” and “active negotiations” with Moderna and a dozen other companies, for other vaccine deals.

    Professor Kelly added that Australia was also “putting in bids” through the global COVAX facility for more vaccine doses, which could include Moderna or Pfizer.””

Comments Page 72 of 76
1 … 71 72 73 … 76

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *