The year ahead

Informed speculation suggests a federal election will be held in the second half of this year, though views differ as to whether it will be sooner or later.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, who is always well plugged into government’s line of tactical thinking, wrote on Monday on the likelihood of a federal election in the second half of this year ($) rather than the first half of the next, that being the full extent of the window for a normal election of the House of Representatives and half the Senate. This basically boils down to a view that the government’s perceived current dominance means the sooner it goes the better, tempered by a desire to avoid an election in winter.

An unidentified Liberal MP quoted in The Australian ($) said they were “almost certain” they were “almost certain” the election would be in August or September, although another felt November more likely since an earlier election would be seen as too opportunistic. Why November would be a whole lot better on that count is unclear, since there seems to be no particular obstacle to Morrison holding out until May next year, by which time it will have been a full three years since the last election. For what it’s worth, the latter MP was also quoted saying it “also depends on if Labor ditch Anthony Albanese and get someone more electable”.

In more definite news for the year ahead, the Western Australian state election is set for March 13 — I am presently furiously hard at work on my election guide, which I can assure those of you who like that kind of thing will be a classic of its genre. As for opinion polling, the silly season proved no obstacle to Newspoll last year, which opened its account with a poll conducted from Wednesday, January 8 and Saturday, January 11, so there may be action on that front this or (probably more likely) next weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,782 comments on “The year ahead”

Comments Page 62 of 76
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  1. In NSW HQ there are 5 with South African strain and 13 with the UK strain.

    No journalist has asked, given that Hazard has stated the new strains are more infectious, have the standards of HQ changed.

  3. In NSW HQ there are 5 with South African strain and 13 with the UK strain.

    No journalist has asked, given that Hazard has stated the new strains are more infectious, have the standards of HQ changed.

    Gee, lucky that anyone who suspected, way back in February, that the virus might be transmitted by aerosol was only using it as an excuse to be racist.

  5. Many commentators are saying that the civil war in the Republican Party has officially begun. Establishment Republicans versus Trumpists.

  7. So the Former-Criminal President is impeached, and now we have less than a week till President Biden inauguration.

    How many more Republicans/GOP Senators gonna join in the impeachment?.

  8. Bushfire Bill @ #3053 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 11:42 am

    In NSW HQ there are 5 with South African strain and 13 with the UK strain.

    No journalist has asked, given that Hazard has stated the new strains are more infectious, have the standards of HQ changed.

    Gee, lucky that anyone who suspected, way back in February, that the virus might be transmitted by aerosol was only using it as an excuse to be racist.

    Still smarting, BB?

  12. Awesome Covid numbers today.

    A massive thankyou to all the health officials and workers who’ve got us to this point.

    Now we just wait for Morrison and Hunt to deliver on the vaccines.

  13. Mavis

    I couldn’t open the link but I think it goes to whether Trump can pardon himself. If so, there’s really nothing anyone can do about it until it judicially tested. He can’t pardon himself if he’s impeached, but that would require conviction by the Senate, which at this stage is I think fairly doubtful.

    ____________________________

    Sorry about the link. I have a subscription, but I thought you might be able to open it on an incognito window or similar. Anyway, it is a pretty legalistic analysis. The one thing I would say, though, is that he has now actually been impeached (which is probably the equivalent of an indictment in the court system). It is now the role of the Senate to try the case and convict or acquit.

    Under the analysis, he could not pardon himself or others associated with the indictment (perhaps including the rioters) until the matter is dealt with by the Senate. Which won’t be until after he leaves office and loses the pardon power.

  16. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 12:16 pm
    I’m tipping the new senate led by Schumar will convict Trump, as they should.

    ___________________________________

    I thought there might have been a slim chance….until you posted that comment.

  17. Democrats should continue Impeachment to make the Republicans not only pay for this treasonous Act, but also as punishment.

    They have control of the Senate now.

    They should also make it harder for a President or a candidate President to make crime, even if he/she is a voice for them, as a leader.

  18. Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    5h
    It has taken a public servant (CMO Paul Kelly) to show the tiniest bit of criticism of ⁦@CraigKellyMP
    ⁩
    This boof head of a RW nut job has every senior govt minister including Morrison petrified to criticise him.
    Morrison putting party stability before the country.

  20. Sure, the problem isn’t just Trump. But it isn’t his base either.

    The problem is a two party system based on loyalty to party and one party goes rouge. where it deems winning is more important than anything. Where it fosters a branded following using hate and fear; resulting in hopeless division. Where it seek to gain control of every possible element of power that was widely distributed by the founders in order to check the unbridled fanatics that have controlled the GOP for decades.

    And some hack from The Australian dare to blame the division and insurrection on the democrats for finally standing up to it? FFS. That guy is a f’ing disgrace as is the rag that published the opinion.

  21. It’s been a traumatic time with the Covid outbreak but it seems we’re finally properly prepared now for global pandemics in the future. There are no excuses for political leaders in the future. They know what works and what doesn’t.

  22. The ABC has reversed two editorial decisions about its reporting on the assault on the US Capitol and misinformation about Covid-19 spread by the MP Craig Kelly.

    On Tuesday Mark Maley, the ABC’s manager of editorial policy, banned unattributed use of the word “insurrection” in news reporting to describe the 6 January attack.

    But by Wednesday afternoon the ABC had reversed its position, with Maley issuing fresh guidance admitting there was “overwhelming prima facie evidence” that the Capitol attack, in which five people were killed, qualified as an insurrection.
    …
    The national broadcaster also described government backbencher Kelly’s untruths about Covid-19 as “unofficial information” in the headline of a news article published on Tuesday.

    The article was later updated to replace the reference with “misleading coronavirus information”.

    Such scared little mice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jan/14/abc-reverses-editorial-decisions-on-capitol-breach-and-craig-kelly-covid-posts

  23. Well there’s a coincidence.
    WHO announces that above 50% efficacy is, wtte, OK.
    It is announcement that Sinovac is 50% effective.
    WHO is also systematically being dicked around in and around WUHAN.
    Xi at work.

  26. I guess money talks

    Jake Sherman
    @JakeSherman
    ·
    7m
    Pelosi will now fine people if they don’t follow screening protocols. $5000 for the first offense, $10,000 for the second offense. It will be docked from their government salary

  27. C@tmomma
    “Many commentators are saying that the civil war in the Republican Party has officially begun. Establishment Republicans versus Trumpists.”

    My money’s on the Trumpists. The GOP base is overwhelmingly Trumpist, and it’s the GOP base who decide the primary races.

    Mitt Romney is exceptional. Mormons tend to be cooler on Trump than most Republicans (although there are many virulently pro-Trump Mormons). So his anti-Trump stance won’t affect him in Utah.

  28. Simon Katich @ #3070 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:25 pm

    Sure, the problem isn’t just Trump. But it isn’t his base either.

    The problem is a two party system based on loyalty to party and one party goes rouge. where it deems winning is more important than anything. Where it fosters a branded following using hate and fear; resulting in hopeless division. Where it seek to gain control of every possible element of power that was widely distributed by the founders in order to check the unbridled fanatics that have controlled the GOP for decades.

    And some hack from The Australian dare to blame the division and insurrection on the democrats for finally standing up to it? FFS. That guy is a f’ing disgrace as is the rag that published the opinion.

    Agree. While it is true that the problem seems to affect one side more than the other, the fact is that both sides in the US are increasingly partisan, and this often involves demonizing the other side. Now, demonizing your political opponents has always been part of the cut and thrust of politics, but demonizing their supporters seems to me to be something new and troubling. When they win, nearly all politicians claim they will work on behalf of everyone whether they voted for them or not, but increasingly this doesn’t seem to actually be the case.

  30. “JUST IN: Tim Paine confirms Will Pucovski won’t play in the fourth and final Test. Marcus Harris will play #AUSvIND”

    Hopefully he won’t be forced to have “plentiful” discussions with Langer, MacDonald and Mott like Paine had to after losing his shit on day 5.

  33. Where is Mr Potato?

    @IngSoc4ever
    3h
    I often drive by his Ward office to drop the kids at school. The neighbouring businesses all closed a month after he moved in. Every window and door is blocked out with ads. Its like Willy Wonka’s factory – “Nobody ever goes in, and nobody ever comes out”. Creepy as.

  34. lizzie @ #2717 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:42 pm

    Where is Mr Potato?

    @IngSoc4ever
    3h
    I often drive by his Ward office to drop the kids at school. The neighbouring businesses all closed a month after he moved in. Every window and door is blocked out with ads. Its like Willy Wonka’s factory – “Nobody ever goes in, and nobody ever comes out”. Creepy as.

    Long Covid.

  35. While the tensions within the Republican Party appear greater than ever, I don’t believe it will actually split. The desire for political power is the paramount motivator, as evidenced by the almost uniform meek support for Trump among senior Republicans, including some of those who were formerly his sworn opponents, over the last 4 years. Under an electoral system that is overwhelmingly first past the post, a split on either side of politics means sudden death. One commentator pointed out that it would be hugely beneficial if the US were to adopt ranked choice/preferential voting across the board, as a multi party system, with the RW nut jobs confined to the margins, would keep the most toxic actors away from the levers of power. Their influence would be largely limited to preference direction/withholding as per our very own Poorleen.

  36. So the ABC editorial manager can ban the use of a word To describe a newsworthy event? That is f’d. What is worse, he only reversed the decision when he realised Republicans had started using that very word.

    It really is “their” ABC now.

  37. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    ·
    6m
    ICYMI the reserve bank @RBAInfo has provided $20k/year sponsorship to gerard henderson’s #SydneyInstitute think tank since the early 2000s.

    [apropos of nothing, louise “blackouts will do them good” clegg, wife of #CaymanAngus, sits on the SI board.]

  38. Simon Katich @ #3086 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:46 pm

    So the ABC editorial manager can ban the use of a word To describe a newsworthy event? That is f’d. What is worse, he only reversed the decision when he realised Republicans had started using that very word.

    It really is “their” ABC now.

    I don’t recall them banning the use of the inaccurate term “carbon tax”.

  40. Up to 50 per cent of office workers can start returning to their desks from Monday, without being required to wear a mask indoors, after Victoria recorded its eighth consecutive day of zero community transmission of the coronavirus.

    Premier Daniel Andrews announced on Thursday morning that mask-wearing rules will again be relaxed from 11.59pm on Sunday.

    Face masks will only be required to be worn inside hospitals, supermarkets, shopping centres, public transport and other high-risk settings.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/more-city-workers-to-return-to-offices-from-monday-mask-rules-relaxed-20210114-p56u0u.html?

  42. “The article was later updated to replace the reference with “misleading coronavirus information”.

    … then they updated their guidelines to replace the reference with “dangerous bullshit” (not really).

  43. boerwar says:
    Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 12:27 pm

    Maybe if the USA/AUS/UK put more money into AID and WHO they can use it to their power instead of criticizing xi and China.

    All they did is run away to their little holes, and just be bigot little countries.

    Btw thanks to the likes of Trump, all 3 countries are now weak as piss on world stage.

  44. Bridget Rollason
    @bridgerollo
    ·
    1h
    As QLD considers mining camps for returned travellers, Vic Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says he had a conversation with the Federal Government about using ADF facilities in Vic instead of hotel quarantine, but he was told they weren’t suitable.

  47. BW – another making a (rather late) splash –

    Acting ICE director is resigning, DHS official says
    From CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez

    Jonathan Fahey is resigning as acting US Immigration and Customs Enforcement director just weeks after assuming the post, according to a Department of Homeland Security official.

    Fahey’s departure is the latest in a string of leadership changes at the Department of Homeland Security and the most recent acting ICE director to step down.

    Last month, Fahey’s predecessor, Tony Pham, departed. Pham had assumed the post last August.

    It’s unclear what prompted Fahey’s departure.

  48. lizzie @ #3094 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 1:00 pm

    Bridget Rollason
    @bridgerollo
    ·
    1h
    As QLD considers mining camps for returned travellers, Vic Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says he had a conversation with the Federal Government about using ADF facilities in Vic instead of hotel quarantine, but he was told they weren’t suitable.

    Victorians are well aware that this radical and dangerous PM seems to have a negative bias against the state.

  49. Spray.
    Rogue!
    Rouge!
    Whatevs!

    If you haven’t realised by now, my writing is terrible. But I own it.

    As for cricket, Langer seems to be avoiding hard questions on how a near full strength Aus team can’t beat a weakened India team on home soil. Big game for him in Brisbane. Or is it to be patsy Paine?

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