The year ahead

Informed speculation suggests a federal election will be held in the second half of this year, though views differ as to whether it will be sooner or later.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, who is always well plugged into government’s line of tactical thinking, wrote on Monday on the likelihood of a federal election in the second half of this year ($) rather than the first half of the next, that being the full extent of the window for a normal election of the House of Representatives and half the Senate. This basically boils down to a view that the government’s perceived current dominance means the sooner it goes the better, tempered by a desire to avoid an election in winter.

An unidentified Liberal MP quoted in The Australian ($) said they were “almost certain” they were “almost certain” the election would be in August or September, although another felt November more likely since an earlier election would be seen as too opportunistic. Why November would be a whole lot better on that count is unclear, since there seems to be no particular obstacle to Morrison holding out until May next year, by which time it will have been a full three years since the last election. For what it’s worth, the latter MP was also quoted saying it “also depends on if Labor ditch Anthony Albanese and get someone more electable”.

In more definite news for the year ahead, the Western Australian state election is set for March 13 — I am presently furiously hard at work on my election guide, which I can assure those of you who like that kind of thing will be a classic of its genre. As for opinion polling, the silly season proved no obstacle to Newspoll last year, which opened its account with a poll conducted from Wednesday, January 8 and Saturday, January 11, so there may be action on that front this or (probably more likely) next weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,782 comments on “The year ahead”

Comments Page 63 of 76
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  1. A question for NSW bludgers.

    How would an Independent candidate for Hughes go about convincing its voters to vote for him/her rather than Kelly ?

  2. One commentator pointed out that it would be hugely beneficial if the US were to adopt ranked choice/preferential voting across the board, as a multi party system, with the RW nut jobs confined to the margins, would keep the most toxic actors away from the levers of power. Their influence would be largely limited to preference direction/withholding as per our very own Poorleen.

    The problem with this scenario, as we have seen in Australia, which has Preferential Voting, is that the RWChristianNJs just infiltrate one of the major parties and work their evil from there.

  3. max
    “While the tensions within the Republican Party appear greater than ever, I don’t believe it will actually split.”

    Nor do I. In this era of hyperpartisanship, the Republican Party will hold together, united in its opposition to the Democratic Party.

  4. Pukka

    In NSW HQ there are 5 with South African strain and 13 with the UK strain.

    No journalist has asked, given that Hazard has stated the new strains are more infectious, have the standards of HQ changed.

    What scares me is NSW Health’s record of not being proactive with HQ. Time and again they wait till something fails before they attempt to plug a hole. Like for instance the transport drivers not being tested daily and not being given the highest possible standard of protection.

    Is NSW Health going to be proactive in terms of auditing hotels for poor ventilation? Given their record, the answer is no.

    We’re being run by managerialist idiots.

  5. Trump is isolated and angry at aides for failing to defend him as he is impeached again

    When Donald Trump on Wednesday became the first president ever impeached twice, he did so as a leader increasingly isolated, sullen and vengeful.

    With less than seven days remaining in his presidency, Trump’s inner circle is shrinking, offices in his White House are emptying, and the president is lashing out at some of those who remain.

    Though Trump has been exceptionally furious with Vice President Pence, his relationship with lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani, one of his most steadfast defenders, is also fracturing, according to people with knowledge of the dynamics between the men.

    Trump has instructed aides not to pay Giuliani’s legal fees, two officials said – Trump has privately expressed concern with some of Giuliani’s moves and did not appreciate a demand from Giuliani for $20,000 a day in fees for his work attempting to overturn the election.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-isolated-impeachment/2021/01/13/0595675a-55b6-11eb-a931-5b162d0d033d_story.html

  6. Rex
    “How would an Independent candidate for Hughes go about convincing its voters to vote for him/her rather than Kelly ?”

    The first thing he/she would need is the ability to perform miracles. If the Independent candidate can’t do that, he/she is finished.

    A dog turd could win Hughes, as long as it ran as a Lib candidate. Kelly is not far removed.

  7. It seems not all is good in Team Trump now:

    “Trump has instructed aides not to pay Giuliani’s legal fees, two officials said, and has demanded that he personally approve any reimbursements for the expenses Giuliani incurred while traveling on the president’s behalf to challenge election results in key states.”
    https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/01/considered-as-legal-drama-here-is-the-chefs-kiss-to-the-trump-presidency

    The article details a heart warming picture of the Trump camp as a broken and demoralised group with individuals quietly drifting off one by one. Some might make good witnesses soon.

  8. Jackie
    @jaquix173
    ·
    1h
    Scott Morrisons “Prayer Group” growing all the time: Now numbers 14: Morrison, Robert, AlexHawke, JFalinski, GladysLiu, KarenAndrews, KevinAndrews,Nicole Flint, Andrew Hastie, James Patterson, Christian Porter, AmandaStoker, Celia Hannan, Garth Hammond (New MP for Groom QLD)

    It’s not so much the prayers that worry me as the nature of the people involved.

  9. lizzie @ #3109 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:27 pm

    Jackie
    @jaquix173
    ·
    1h
    Scott Morrisons “Prayer Group” growing all the time: Now numbers 14: Morrison, Robert, AlexHawke, JFalinski, GladysLiu, KarenAndrews, KevinAndrews,Nicole Flint, Andrew Hastie, James Patterson, Christian Porter, AmandaStoker, Celia Hannan, Garth Hammond (New MP for Groom QLD)

    It’s not so much the prayers that worry me as the nature of the people involved.

    Hmm. Can we call this a “Prayer Chamber”?

  10. In Sydney there are still 11 covid cases under investigation, dating back to Dec 21.
    Plus two cases (including the original Avalon case) that they’ve given up on.

    Why is Gladys saying “mopping up” when there’s clearly infectious people out there that they don’t know about?

  11. “Scott Morrisons “Prayer Group” growing all the time”

    Much like a tumour.

    I saw Amanda Stoker on the tellie once. What a condescendingly sanctimonious harpy. She just oozed holier-than-thou snark.

  12. boerwar says:
    Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 1:40 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/21/offshore-detention-whistleblower-loses-job-after-condemning-atrocity-of-camps

    The trauma specialist who condemned the treatment of asylum seekers and refugees in Australia’s offshore detention regime as the worst “atrocity” he has seen has had his contract to work on Nauru terminated.

    Psychologist Paul Stevenson, whom the Australian government awarded an Order of Australia for his work counselling victims of the Bali bombings, had undertaken 14 deployments to Nauru and to Manus Island in Papua New Guinea. He was due to return to Nauru on Thursday.

  13. “Scott Morrisons “Prayer Group” growing all the time: Now numbers 14: Morrison, Robert, AlexHawke, JFalinski, GladysLiu, KarenAndrews, KevinAndrews,Nicole Flint, Andrew Hastie, James Patterson, Christian Porter, AmandaStoker, Celia Hannan, Garth Hammond (New MP for Groom QLD)

    It’s not so much the prayers that worry me as the nature of the people involved.”

    I can just imagine the prayers:
    “Lord, grant us high-profile and low-risk Ministries in our brother Scomo’s government.”
    “Lord, grant us the wisdom of George Pell, and the compassion of Tony Abbott.”
    “Lord, bless us with more poor people, too desperate not to do our bidding.”
    “Lord, we seek clarification on thou’s direction to love thy neighbour. Surely people on Christmas Island are too far away to be thy neighbours?””

  14. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 12:27 pm

    The ABC has reversed two editorial decisions about its reporting on the assault on the US Capitol and misinformation about Covid-19 spread by the MP Craig Kelly.

    On Tuesday Mark Maley, the ABC’s manager of editorial policy, banned unattributed use of the word “insurrection” in news reporting to describe the 6 January attack.

    But by Wednesday afternoon the ABC had reversed its position, with Maley issuing fresh guidance admitting there was “overwhelming prima facie evidence” that the Capitol attack, in which five people were killed, qualified as an insurrection.

    The national broadcaster also described government backbencher Kelly’s untruths about Covid-19 as “unofficial information” in the headline of a news article published on Tuesday.

    The article was later updated to replace the reference with “misleading coronavirus information”.

    Such scared little mice.’

    Morrison’s minions.

  15. Player One @ #2970 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:24 pm

    Fulvio Sammut @ #3065 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:19 pm

    Why don’t you just admit Bushfire Bill was right, and you were wrong, Player One? Just for once.

    When I make mistakes, I own up to them.

    You are incapable of recognising your mistakes, since you lack the knowledge and research/analytical capability to reach rational conclusions in the first place. As recognised here, classic Dunning – Kruger.

  16. Jackie
    @jaquix173
    ·
    1h
    Scott Morrisons “Prayer Group” growing all the time: Now numbers 14: Morrison, Robert, AlexHawke, JFalinski, GladysLiu, KarenAndrews, KevinAndrews,Nicole Flint, Andrew Hastie, James Patterson, Christian Porter, AmandaStoker, Celia Hannan, Garth Hammond (New MP for Groom QLD)

    And that makes them better than us because???

    (They would no doubt think so).

  17. Player One @ #2970 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:24 pm

    When I make mistakes, I own up to them.

    Looks like someone is considering a new career in comedy.

  18. Yabba @ #3123 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 1:46 pm

    Player One @ #2970 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:24 pm

    Fulvio Sammut @ #3065 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:19 pm

    Why don’t you just admit Bushfire Bill was right, and you were wrong, Player One? Just for once.

    When I make mistakes, I own up to them.

    You are incapable of recognising your mistakes, since you lack the knowledge and research/analytical capability to reach rational conclusions in the first place. As recognised here, classic Dunning – Kruger.

    Feeling left out again, Yabba?

  19. The Spectator Index-
    UNITED STATES: Professional Bank, which is based in Florida, says it will no longer conduct business with President Trump or his firms.

  20. National Guard Inauguration Deployment 4 Times More Than Number of Troops in Afghanistan and Iraq

    At least 20,000 National Guard members are expected to be in Washington D.C. for President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, which is roughly four times more than the amount of troops currently in Afghanistan and Iraq combined.

    During a press conference on Wednesday, Metropolitan Police Chief Robert Contee said, “I think you can expect to see somewhere, upwards beyond 20,000 members of the National Guard that will be here in the footprint of the District of Columbia.”

    When asked if he has ever seen law enforcement reinforcement to this magnitude in D.C., Contee said “not at this level, no.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/national-guard-inauguration-deployment-4-times-more-number-troops-afghanistan-iraq-1561361

  21. ‘Fulvio Sammut says:
    Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 2:07 pm

    BW, is she a toothfish? Or perhaps a blowie?’

    Everyone who had any interest in the matter knew that fisheries, while a minor matter in the total scheme of things, was going to be a political hot potato. And she could not give a flying fuck cos she is playing away in the manger with baby Jesus. Amazing stuff. I’m thinking:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=image+of+monkfish&client=firefox-b-d&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=RBAeNdurHbOdPM%252C0uhxgcdWK_9OwM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kTG5gIIzQCZ6pQuvP0UL6a7CAwk3Q&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiq1qjNuZruAhUJ7HMBHXQsCp8Q9QF6BAgIEAE&biw=878&bih=408#imgrc=RBAeNdurHbOdPM

  22. phoenixRED @ #3106 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:20 pm

    Trump has instructed aides not to pay Giuliani’s legal fees, two officials said – Trump has privately expressed concern with some of Giuliani’s moves and did not appreciate a demand from Giuliani for $20,000 a day in fees for his work attempting to overturn the election.

    Trump not paying someone who did work for him? Not one person anywhere saw that coming! 🙂

  23. ‘Quasar says:
    Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 1:56 pm

    The Spectator Index-
    UNITED STATES: Professional Bank, which is based in Florida, says it will no longer conduct business with President Trump or his firms.’

    Splish splash.

    Another set of rats waits until 7 days before COB to jump ship.

  24. The Senate hearings into the impeachment will commence after the new Senators are sworn in, and after the Republicans lose their majority status. So McConnell will not have to administer the process that will lead to Trump’s eventual conviction. The Republicans will be relieved at that. They will doubtless find ways to squirm out of their obligation to convict Trump, and leave it to the Democrats to disqualify Trump from further office.

    This will suit the Republicans. They will blame the Democrats for suppressing the Right, and for the armed resistance that will likely ensue.

    Somewhere along the line the Republicans are going to have to separate themselves from their militarised contingents. There are a few who seem to have recognised this, but there also seem to be more who owe their power to those contingents. The inclusion of armed teams in the Republican Party is a very serious development. It is a menace to democracy and the Republic itself.

  25. a r says: Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 2:12 pm

    phoenixRED @ #3106 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:20 pm

    Trump not paying someone who did work for him? Not one person anywhere saw that coming!

    *********************************************

    You are right a r – he has a long history of ” stiffing ” his employees

    Thousands of complaints allege the billionaire failed to pay workers what he owed.

    According to a USA Today investigation, Trump has received at least 3,500 official complaints for failing to pay employees, contractors, and other business affiliates money owed. The paper also found at least 60 lawsuits, 24 instances where Trump failed to pay overtime and minimum wage, and countless out-of-court settlements. Among those to whom Trump owed money, according to USA Today: dishwashers, bartenders, painters, real-estate brokers, and ironically, even his own lawyers.

    In 1990, a casino commission audit of the Trump Taj Mahal, then about to open, revealed that Trump owed an astounding $69.5 million to 253 subcontractors. Marty Rosenberg, the owner of a plate glass company who was owed $1.5 million, said that he was only able to recover 70 cents on the dollar for his work, and that he was one of the lucky ones. “Yes, there were a lot of other companies. . . Yes, some did not survive,” he told USA Today.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/donald-trump-lawsuit-contractors

  26. The adoption of arms by some Republicans should lead the Faux to question their past alliances with the Right. But it’s doubtful this will happen. The Faux will continue to blame the Democratic Party for the distemper in America, just as they blame parts of Labour in the UK and Labor in Australia. The dysfunction on the centre left is a gift to the Right. The schismatic voices will continue to prop up the Reactionaries.

  27. Remember Abbott advocating for a “guided democracy” (definition below)

    “Guided democracy, also called managed democracy, is a formally democratic government that functions as a de facto autocracy. Such governments are legitimized by elections that are free and fair, but do not change the state’s policies, motives, and goals.

    In other words, the government controls elections so that the people can exercise all their rights without truly changing public policy. While they follow basic democratic principles, there can be major deviations towards authoritarianism. Under managed democracy, the state’s continuous use of propaganda techniques prevents the electorate from having a significant impact on policy.”

    By and large the Canberra Press Gallery have refused to acknowledge that this has now occurred in Australia by stealth. Morrison embodies this system.

    Events in Washington seem to have awakened some journos to the danger (Murdoch and his stooges excluded) but even with corruption rife many will continue to give succour to this shoddy Government. Even The Guardian, which I like, is hamstrung by a political correspondent (Murphy) who is terrified of being on ‘the outer’. Her journalism would vastly improve if she were.

  28. Player One @ #3029 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 1:51 pm

    Yabba @ #3123 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 1:46 pm

    Player One @ #2970 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:24 pm

    Fulvio Sammut @ #3065 Thursday, January 14th, 2021 – 12:19 pm

    Why don’t you just admit Bushfire Bill was right, and you were wrong, Player One? Just for once.

    When I make mistakes, I own up to them.

    You are incapable of recognising your mistakes, since you lack the knowledge and research/analytical capability to reach rational conclusions in the first place. As recognised here, classic Dunning – Kruger.

    Feeling left out again, Yabba?

    Thanks for providing proof, yet again. You possess all of the intellectual heft of L’arse fon Tryhard, but without the sad, brittle charm.

  29. Trump considered resigning — but refused because he doesn’t trust Pence to pardon him: report

    On Wednesday, ABC News reported that President Donald Trump seriously considered resigning ahead of the end of his term in discussion with White House aides. In the end, however, after asking questions about the process, he decided against it.

    The reason? He doesn’t trust that Vice President Mike Pence would pardon him, the way that Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon after he left.

    The president has also reportedly discussed pardoning himself, but legal advisers have warned him it may not be allowed and would increase his exposure to lawsuits.

    https://www.rawstory.com/mike-pence-2649932880/

  30. Two stories on the ABC website …

    The hype:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-01-14/veg-harvest-dumped-in-gippsland-due-to-covid-travel-bans/13056820

    “The standard wage for casual workers is around $27 per hour, so it’s a reasonable pay for unskilled labour. So it’s not an issue of not paying enough money.

    The reality:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-14/when-backpackers-went-home-these-australians-tried-farm-work/13047062

    Things on the farm ended “rather sourly” for Mr Rolston when his wages for six 10-hour working days came through — three weeks after he first started.
    “And then, when we did end up getting paid, we didn’t get the full amount,” he said.
    “I was supposed to earn around $550, I ended up getting $450.

  31. Rather than issuing a pardon to Trump, I think Pence will be hoping that the investigation into the storming of the Capitol will lead to Trump facing criminal charges and to his imprisonment.

    Trump knew that Pence was in harm’s way. He did nothing to prevent it. In fact, he promoted it.

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