Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August to November

The latest deep dive from Newspoll suggests no particular change in the spread of party support by state since the last election.

The Australian has published the concluding quarterly set of aggregated Newspoll breakdowns for the year, showing results by state, gender, age, education, income, language and religion.

The results have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, a two point shift to the Coalition since last quarter; Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, a one point shift to the Coalition; the Coalition leading 57-43 in Queensland, a two point shift to Labor; the Coalition leading 53-47 in Western Australia, a one point shift to Labor; and the Coalition leading 51-49 in South Australia, a one point shift to the Coalition.

The Australian’s report leads with Labor’s weak position among men, but the gender breakdowns are in fact unchanged on last time with the Coalition leading 53-47 among men and Labor leading 51-49 among women. Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 cohort widens from 58-42 to 61-39, but there is now a tie among the 35-to-49 cohort after Labor lead 53-47 last time. The Coalition’s leads among the older cohorts are little changed, at 55-45 among 50-to-64 and 62-38 among 65-plus.

The recorded gap between English speakers and those who speak a different language at home has narrowed slightly, with the Coalition’s lead among the former going from 52-48 to 51-49 and Labor’s lead among the latter narrowing from 56-44 to 54-46. The other breakdowns record no notable pattern of change: two-party splits vary little by education (although education associates positively with Greens support and negatively with One Nation support); there is no great variation by income until the $150,000-plus cohort, which broke 55-45 for the Coalition; and Christians breaking 59-41 for the Coalition, while those of no religion going 57-43 to Labor.

The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from August to November, from a combined sample of 8123.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,302 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August to November”

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  1. 1992-1993 selection panel including that champion NSW leggie Jim Higgs

    “1992–93: Laurie Sawle (c), Bob Simpson, Jim Higgs, John Benaud”

  2. Mavis @ #1185 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 3:15 pm

    Oakeshott Country:

    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    Okay, I’ll accept that with reservation, that being I do think he was referring to Parliament when he makes reference to the Senate, in keeping with his anarchic desire to rid Britain of its institutions. One further point, which specific statute did George III given royal assent to, the one you referred to in an earlier post?

    A bit of research indicated it was the law stripping Catholics of their civil rights which I think long predated his era – the grievance was it had not ever been repealed.

  3. Hi Mavis
    GIV eventually assented to the Roman Catholic Relief Act, 1829

    Among other things it removed the religious test which was used to stop Catholics from taking seats in the Commons.

    All members were required to take an oath, which some called the Oath of Non-Transubstantiation, in which they swore that the communion wine was not turned into the Blood of Christ. A Catholic who took this could no longer be considered Catholic.

    It was replaced with a very convoluted oath that basically said the Pope was a dickhead (you can say that and still be a Catholic)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Catholic_Relief_Act_1829#:~:text=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Relief%20Act,passed%20by%20Parliament%20in%201829.&text=The%20act%20permitted%20members%20of,in%201828%20against%20an%20Anglican.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #1205 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Spray @ #1203 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 5:28 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1199 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 5:23 pm

    Goodness had nothing to do with it. Just the NSW Rum Corp looking after their mates.

    Actually NSW haven’t had all that much representation on the Test selection committee in my lifetime.

    But most of the selectors have been pretty astute.

    Who was the Coach?

    Simmo I presume.

  5. Not sure what high level corruption turns on if they spent a night together in Ballina for instance other than prurient interest in details of the Premier’s private life.

    If they go out to a restaurant it’s at best just a “close personal relationship”.

    If they spend a night together in Ballina or anywhere else, it’s a “close intimate relationshop” within the meaning of the Ministerial Code of Behaviour, and all Hell breaks loose for Gladys. She needs to then account for Maguire’s financial interests, his business holdings and a lot more.

    He’s regarded as official “family” if he unzipped his trousers anywhere near her.

    She’s already trying to get us to believe she was in a five year relationship with him, gave him the key to (and the run of) her town house, wanted to get married to him, but hardly knew the man when it comes to getting it sticky. She’s “married to NSW” as Perrotet told us (with a straight face, apparently).

    If it’s found they went on holidays together, I think even the Daily Telegraph would have to throw in the towel on the “just good friends” yarn.

  6. ajm @ #415 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 4:29 pm

    Mavis @ #1185 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 3:15 pm

    Oakeshott Country:

    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    Okay, I’ll accept that with reservation, that being I do think he was referring to Parliament when he makes reference to the Senate, in keeping with his anarchic desire to rid Britain of its institutions. One further point, which specific statute did George III given royal assent to, the one you referred to in an earlier post?

    A bit of research indicated it was the law stripping Catholics of their civil rights which I think long predated his era – the grievance was it had not ever been repealed.

    Click to Edit – <b>Mavis</b> @ <a href='https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/12/26/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-august-to-november/comment-page-24/#comment-3532848&#039; title='1609218921000'>#1185 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 3:15 pm</a>

    <blockquote>Oakeshott Country:

    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    Okay, I’ll accept that with reservation, that being I do think he was referring to Parliament when he makes reference to the Senate, in keeping with his anarchic desire to rid Britain of its institutions. One further point, which specific statute did George III given royal assent to, the one you referred to in an earlier post?</blockquote>

    A bit of research indicated it was the law stripping Catholics of their civil rights which I think long predated his era – the grievance was it had not ever been repealed.SaveCancelDelete

    Actually it looks like George III was involved, but actually in a DECREASE of discrimination against Catholics in the Papists Act of 1778 which removed some of the provisions of the Popery Act of 1698. However it still required swearing an oath in terms that would have been offensive to many Catholics.

  7. This is the sort of entitled thinking and the lying that goes with it in order to make things happen that YOU want, that is all too endemic in our society now:

    Ms Berejiklian said she was “aghast” that people from the northern beaches defied stay-at-home orders to attend a wedding in Pyrmont last Sunday.

    NSW Police confirmed the bride and groom were two of 12 northern beaches residents at the wedding and were fined for breaching public health orders.

    NSW Police assistant commissioner Mick Willing described the wedding as “inappropriate behaviour”.

    “The community by and large has made great sacrifices over a considerable period of time … [this] is the type of behaviour we are trying to discourage,” he said.

    “We don’t want you to put people at risk by acting in a way that would expose others to the virus so it is inappropriate behaviour which we have seen before.”

    The wedding was held at Doltone House in Pyrmont and the alleged offenders live in Allambie Heights, Frenchs Forest, Beacon Hill and Narraweena.

    A spokesperson for Doltone House said the bride advised the venue she and her immediate family had been staying outside the northern beaches in order to comply with the public health order.

    “Had we been aware that any of the information supplied to us by the couple was incorrect, we would have taken the necessary steps,” the spokesperson said.

    “The venue itself was compliant.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-29/three-new-covid-19-cases-on-sydney-northern-beaches/13017836

  8. The Gabba test should be cancelled ahead of Sydney given no one goes to the former.

    Go back to Adelaide for test 4 and create a road for a pitch

  9. shellbell @ #1214 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:14 pm

    The Gabba test should be cancelled ahead of Sydney given no one goes to the former.

    Go back to Adelaide for test 4 and create a road for a pitch

    You’re sounding a bit desperate.

    No responsible authority will allow the Sydney Test to proceed given the expansion of infection that seems to be happening.

  10. Just because you come from Sydney, doesn’t mean you don’t have to obey the laws that everyone else does:

    Five Sydney travellers were fined and thrown into quarantine after allegedly lying to Queensland police.

  11. Pitt the Younger tried to introduce emancipation but gave up in the face of the King’s opposition just before his second episode of having the flying gout, which he blamed on Pitt’s hectoring
    Pitt was replaced by Addington, who was anti-emancipation

  12. It’s kind of these other states to help NSW out with hosting events. Much appreciated.

    Next step would be to do their fair share of processing international arrivals.

  13. Spray @ #1219 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    It’s kind of these other states to help NSW out with hosting events. Much appreciated.

    Next step would be to do their fair share of processing international arrivals.

    The rest of Australia will be most pleased when the NSW Government abandons their Ayn Rand experiment.

    NSW seems to be the Sweden of Australia. Check out how that is going!

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #1220 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    Spray @ #1219 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    It’s kind of these other states to help NSW out with hosting events. Much appreciated.

    Next step would be to do their fair share of processing international arrivals.

    The rest of Australia will be most pleased when the NSW Government abandons their Ayn Rand experiment.

    NSW seems to be the Sweden of Australia. Check out how that is going!

    As the exemplar state, what measures was Victoria taking when infection numbers were at this level?

  15. Accepting this woman’s self description of “fringe scientist” is being extremely generous.

    How conspiracy theories led a ‘fringe scientist’ to escape quarantine

    Trapped under quarantine and ravaged by allergies in a Perth hotel room, Jenny D’Ubois slid into an internet vortex of conspiracy theories in the week before her Boxing Day escape.

    The self-described “fringe scientist” shared with her Facebook followers articles about the dangers of 5G, a post by an anti-fluoride group that suggested coronavirus was a hoax, a video about the COVID-19 test (which was blocked by Facebook) and support for Reignite Democracy Australia, an activist group that sprang up in protest against the Melbourne lockdown.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-conspiracy-theories-led-a-fringe-scientist-to-escape-quarantine-20201228-p56qhj.html

  16. “Step right up! See the glories of a democracy right before your disbelieving eyes. Republican Congressman sues his Republican Vice President!”

    In the lawsuit, Representative Louie Gohmert seeks a court order forcing the vice president to acknowledge what Gohmert claims is Pence’s power to disregard states’ chosen Democratic electors and instead select competing slates of GOP electors on Jan. 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-28/pence-sued-by-gop-congressman-in-fight-over-competing-electors

  17. Spray @ #1221 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1220 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    Spray @ #1219 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    It’s kind of these other states to help NSW out with hosting events. Much appreciated.

    Next step would be to do their fair share of processing international arrivals.

    The rest of Australia will be most pleased when the NSW Government abandons their Ayn Rand experiment.

    NSW seems to be the Sweden of Australia. Check out how that is going!

    As the exemplar state, what measures was Victoria taking when infection numbers were at this level?

    You are very complacent, comrade.

    This virus thrives on people movement, people interaction and inadvertent transmission.

    It’s not a competition.

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #1224 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:35 pm

    Spray @ #1221 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1220 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    Spray @ #1219 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    It’s kind of these other states to help NSW out with hosting events. Much appreciated.

    Next step would be to do their fair share of processing international arrivals.

    The rest of Australia will be most pleased when the NSW Government abandons their Ayn Rand experiment.

    NSW seems to be the Sweden of Australia. Check out how that is going!

    As the exemplar state, what measures was Victoria taking when infection numbers were at this level?

    You are very complacent, comrade.

    This virus thrives on people movement, people interaction and inadvertent transmission.

    It’s not a competition.

    I’m far from complacent Comrade. And if it was up to me there’d be more severe restrictions in place.

    But please, Sweden? Ayn Rand? Drop the hyperbole. It makes you seem like you’re not on our side.

  19. Spray, spray!!
    I can answer that (oh! Pick me teacher, I am ever so smart!)
    When Victoria’s numbers were in the 4-500s and rising. Diogenes posted wtte “Why is Dan delaying, this needs a lockdown”
    GG responded with wtte “Diogenes, you have been given a good education, why are you so f’en stupid”
    Of course 2 days later ( and an extra 2 days late) GG was posting that Dan had made the correct and timely move

    Concern meet troll

  20. Spray says:
    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 6:42 pm

    You are complacent Spray, the same reasons why in America and Sweden and now NSW. Is having issues.

  21. Cycling to Church Point for a coffee Cud. But the MSM doesn’t seem to have picked up on it.

    There’s even a suggestion on Twitter (via Wendy Harmer for one) that it was for a catch-up with Piers Akerman!

    Unsubstantiated but juicy.

  22. Oakeshott Country @ #1227 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:44 pm

    Spray, spray!!
    I can answer that (oh! Pick me teacher, I am ever so smart!)
    When Victoria’s numbers were in the 4-500s and rising. Diogenes posted wtte “Why is Dan delaying, this needs a lockdown”
    GG responded with wtte “Diogenes, you have been given a good education, why are you so f’en stupid”
    Of course 2 days later ( and an extra 2 days late) GG was posting that Dan had made the correct and timely move

    Concern meet troll

    Feeling the pressure?

    How’s Woolongong going?

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #1231 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:49 pm

    Oakeshott Country @ #1227 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:44 pm

    Spray, spray!!
    I can answer that (oh! Pick me teacher, I am ever so smart!)
    When Victoria’s numbers were in the 4-500s and rising. Diogenes posted wtte “Why is Dan delaying, this needs a lockdown”
    GG responded with wtte “Diogenes, you have been given a good education, why are you so f’en stupid”
    Of course 2 days later ( and an extra 2 days late) GG was posting that Dan had made the correct and timely move

    Concern meet troll

    Feeling the pressure?

    How’s Woolongong going?

    They’re working on their spelling.

  24. Spray @ #1232 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:50 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1231 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:49 pm

    Oakeshott Country @ #1227 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:44 pm

    Spray, spray!!
    I can answer that (oh! Pick me teacher, I am ever so smart!)
    When Victoria’s numbers were in the 4-500s and rising. Diogenes posted wtte “Why is Dan delaying, this needs a lockdown”
    GG responded with wtte “Diogenes, you have been given a good education, why are you so f’en stupid”
    Of course 2 days later ( and an extra 2 days late) GG was posting that Dan had made the correct and timely move

    Concern meet troll

    Feeling the pressure?

    How’s Woolongong going?

    They’re working on their spelling.

    That’s a very brave deflection!

  25. Spray

    I don’t know about ordinary restrictions, but what I would like to see is NSW Health take a more determined approach to increasing testing, instead of just begging.

  26. Spray,

    It’s pretty obvious you guys have lost the plot.

    Victoria dealt with the problem.

    NSW are flirting outside the off-stump.

  27. Most doctors think it’s good that Oz is delaying the vaccine to March. We will have a lot more data on the efficacy and safety of the various vaccines and we aren’t in much danger with very small numbers.

  28. Gee
    3 today all in isolation during the infective period
    3 pre-announced for tomorrow, word in the lab is that they were all in the CBD group at the Paragon Bar but we will know more in the next 48 hours.
    And Zerlo and GG wet themselves in anticipation of a major breakout.

  29. Strange shenanigans with the location of the 3rd Cricket Test?

    The WestAustralian, picked up by the DailyMail and ABC are saying it’s decided as Melbourne – over 1 hour ago.

    Yet, Fairfax and Murdoch outlets in both Sydney and Melbourne are silent.

  30. Today’s thought on Brexit: It sets a new bar for incompetence.

    The reasonable worst-case scenario published by the UK government highlights that 40% to 70% of HGVs arriving at ports after 1 January could be turned away as they do not have the right documentation.

    “We have never faced this kind of situation before and we have a duty to prepare for the worst possible scenario.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1227/1186647-brexit-uk/

    The word they chose to describe the scenario was “reasonable”. The article describes a “contraflow” arrangement for rejected trucks, which means sending them back on the wrong side of the road. And the cause is paperwork!

  31. sprocket_ @ #1241 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 6:57 pm

    Strange shenanigans with the location of the 3rd Cricket Test?

    The WestAustralian, picked up by the DailyMail and ABC are saying it’s decided as Melbourne – over 1 hour ago.

    Yet, Fairfax and Murdoch outlets in both Sydney and Melbourne are silent.

    CH 7 news saying there are further negotiations.

    I’d say they are waiting for the Woolongong announcements by Gladys and her Pipsqueaks.

  32. Despite having a dog in the fight, I’d be happy to see Melbournians enjoy a 2nd Test after the crap year they have had with the pandemic..

  33. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    You are a fucking idiot. 800 deaths is the standard. Any state premier who is below that mark has done a better job than Andrews.
    End of story.

  34. Spray

    I can think of a few things. We already have three TGA approved rapid tests. What we should be doing is making those available for purchase anywhere – with the advice that if you have symptoms you should call this number first (which would redirect a lot of people to standard PCR testing). This will also displace a lot of worried well who chew up resources and slow down the conventional testing.

    Popularise rapid testing. Then stop people at random on highways and ask them if they’ve been tested and offer them a rapid test and explain to them about rapid testing. Gradually escalate this. Pick a few points on major highways and insist that you require a test to get past. At which stage you can show your test result and get waved through. Escalate this to the point where you can’t travel more than 30 km within Sydney without a test result. This is something that should have been implemented with the northern beaches from the first day.

    Gradually you put a ring around the virus and then tighten it.

    I know it sounds draconian, but its implementable if done in small steps. Its like with interstate air travel. It should have been the norm that you fly, you get tested. It should have been the norm from day one. Cue the usual objections…

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