The Australian has published the concluding quarterly set of aggregated Newspoll breakdowns for the year, showing results by state, gender, age, education, income, language and religion.
The results have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, a two point shift to the Coalition since last quarter; Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, a one point shift to the Coalition; the Coalition leading 57-43 in Queensland, a two point shift to Labor; the Coalition leading 53-47 in Western Australia, a one point shift to Labor; and the Coalition leading 51-49 in South Australia, a one point shift to the Coalition.
The Australian’s report leads with Labor’s weak position among men, but the gender breakdowns are in fact unchanged on last time with the Coalition leading 53-47 among men and Labor leading 51-49 among women. Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 cohort widens from 58-42 to 61-39, but there is now a tie among the 35-to-49 cohort after Labor lead 53-47 last time. The Coalition’s leads among the older cohorts are little changed, at 55-45 among 50-to-64 and 62-38 among 65-plus.
The recorded gap between English speakers and those who speak a different language at home has narrowed slightly, with the Coalition’s lead among the former going from 52-48 to 51-49 and Labor’s lead among the latter narrowing from 56-44 to 54-46. The other breakdowns record no notable pattern of change: two-party splits vary little by education (although education associates positively with Greens support and negatively with One Nation support); there is no great variation by income until the $150,000-plus cohort, which broke 55-45 for the Coalition; and Christians breaking 59-41 for the Coalition, while those of no religion going 57-43 to Labor.
The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from August to November, from a combined sample of 8123.
Yay those of little or no religion! Here’s a song for you to encourage more of it:
https://youtu.be/xwtdhWltSIg
Interesting that those whose first language is English favour the Coalition.
Maybe there is a need to focus on comprehension skills!
Another confirmation that voters have not altered their voting intentions that much since the last Election. This is probably because of Covid and the abundant opportunities for Morrison to show he’s Leader and a population looking for certainty and unity during a time of stress for the Nation.
The Morrison Government has also spent truckloads of money on welfare support and economic stimulus which seems to be quite popular atm.
I reckon Labor and Albo have done very well to remain competitive in the current situation. As always, “What happens next” will drive the fortunes of the Parties. The Jobkeeper and Jobseeker payments are due to end in March. So, how that impacts the general economy and popularity of the Government will unfold thereafter. The stimulus in the Building industry is massive atm. But, how sustainable is that in an environment when population growth is declining because of slowing immigration?
The obvious challenge for Labor is the regions and the male tradie cohort. The only Labor pollie addressing that problem for Labor is Fitzgibbon. The road back to the centre is a tough one for Labor. But, it’s the one we have to travel to win elections in the future.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 7:14 am
Very good. Are we back to raising consciousness ❓ Prolly a lot more to it but studies tend to show that the more education attained the reverse is shown.
Brain not working – – – – is that right ❓
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/scott-morrison-thanks-honours-older-australians-during-christmas-message/news-story/09ae05f085541cc884ecf233ead91a4a
This is award winning quality bullshit. Do you like the way I cut off his head in the leader ❓ Showing more may be more than those of fragile disposition could bear.
Peace my friends – and coffee. ☕☕
” Interesting that those whose first language is English favour the Coalition.”
Racists vote Coalition or preference them after One Nation or other far right candidates, so it’s to be expected
Greensborough Growler @ #3 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 7:16 am
How many slices of Christmas Pudding did you have?
As always, the Coalition are trying to make inroads into Labor’s voting base. At the present moment it’s into the NESB Australians who can vote. So we have seen outreach by the Coalition to the Chinese-Australian community (though that has had the brakes put on it with Gladys Liu being magically disappeared under the cover of Covid), the Indian-Australian community and the Muslim Australian community, where once they were actively campaigning against them. Not to mention their Indigenous Australian initiatives via outreach by Warren Mundine, Andrew Forrest and the churches.
I find it heartening to see Labor reaching out to the more moderate religious observers and trying to isolate the Liberals with the more radical religious factions. This is the sort of triangulation Labor needs to do more of.
Scott Morrison has used his Christmas message to “thank and honour” older Australians in aged-care facilities across the nation and acknowledge the stress and uncertainty inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic…
He should apologise to them for the Federal Government’s criminal negligence in its management of aged care.
KayJay @ #NaN Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 7:35 am
After how many Older Australians he let go to their doom in Aged Care Homes!?!
Anyway, he’s just seen some polling that shows him losing support among that demographic because of it, and the crapping out of the NDIS I might add, and so he’s just sucking up.
We’ve had some rain in Newcastle and the lorikeets are noisily having breakfast in my bottle brush tree.
Mr. Houston said some stuff on my not so smart TV last night. He mention Jesus. Could be just my perception but the snake oil seemed heavy. The TV is supposed to respond to voice inputs. I’ll just experiment and ask it not to show Mr. Houston and or Smoko. Here hoping. Fuggin mongrholastards.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There are several meaty contributions here today that are worthy reads.
This article from Waleed Aly is well worth reading. He looks at 2020 and how it has focussed – or should have – attention on what we are doing to the environment.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-year-wasn-t-unprecedented-if-anything-it-set-the-precedent-20201224-p56pzt.html
Elizabeth Farrelly confines her concerns to the importance of our soil to our future.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/green-eggs-and-good-soil-the-critical-systems-for-health-and-happiness-20201224-p56pyk.html
Julia Baird delights in the glimpses of ho0e that she has seen.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/signs-of-hope-and-wonder-in-a-year-of-plague-and-fires-20201224-p56q0e.html
Now more than ever we should be strengthening democracy but we’re not, argues Ben Oquist who makes many good points.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7067032/now-more-than-ever-we-should-be-strengthening-democracy-were-not/?cs=14350
This was the year Australia restored trust in its politics – and that really is a miracle, declares Katherine Murphy who says a large measure of collaboration and competence in dealing with the pandemic gave Australians reason to believe in their democracy again
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2020/dec/26/this-was-the-year-australia-restored-trust-in-its-politics-and-that-really-is-a-miracle
Tom Switzer writes that although we are experiencing truly troubling times, we should keep a sense of perspective and remind ourselves we have every reason to be grateful we live in Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-happier-new-year-borne-of-renewed-perspective-20201224-p56q0a.html
The AFR’s Andrew Clark describes the horror and courage of Australia in 2020, a year like no other.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/a-year-like-no-other-the-horror-and-courage-of-australia-in-2020-20201221-p56p6h
Tony Abbott (remember him?) says, “With the pandemic still inhibiting daily life and generating almost unimaginable public spending, even from governments of the centre-right, this is a dispiriting time for those wanting government that’s smaller, tax that’s lower and freedom that’s greater.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/lessons-from-a-lost-year-of-covid19-will-stand-us-well/news-story/1315915f4c68ff9527c032da3a84981e
Bruce Haigh declares that Australia’s lack of independent foreign policy is a hangover from a racist history.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7063586/foreign-policy-is-a-hangover-of-our-racist-history/?cs=14258
Peter van Onselen writes that Josh Frydenberg this year has emerged as the clear front runner to take over the Liberal leadership from Scott Morrison when the time comes. But he says that he may be too nice for top job, and that’s just tough.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/frydenberg-may-be-too-nice-for-top-job-and-thats-just-tough/news-story/8305c1c55ab04430b468ecc6faa6ea24
Katina Curtis reflects on the trust that governments enjoyed over the travails of 2020, referring to the remarks of former federal cabinet historian, Paul Strangio, who concluded that, “. . . there will come a point where they ask what this government is about. That’s an open question, what the Prime Minister is about, and maybe there will come some impatience.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/year-from-hell-nation-needs-time-to-heal-before-hustings-begin-20201221-p56p8r.html
There are few better places in the world to be now than in Australia. But we need to put time and effort into mitigating the risk of COVID-19 and continue the return to our new normal, urges the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/desire-for-summer-fun-is-not-the-time-to-drop-our-guard-against-covid-20201223-p56puh.html
Richard Glover has come up with 25 whimsical predictions for 2021.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/25-wildly-accurate-predictions-for-12-dazzling-months-ahead-20201222-p56pjn.html
ANU vice-chancellor Brian Schmidt said Australia was in danger of losing market share in the lucrative sector to other countries.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-should-act-as-international-students-stay-away-says-anu-chief-20201223-p56ppp.html
It might be surprising to hear that it was insolvency practitioners who pushed new laws to save businesses from going under in the pandemic. Mark Korda was one of those people, writes Sarah Danckert.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cut-the-korda-push-to-reshape-insolvency-laws-post-pandemic-20201222-p56pk1.html
Dr Binoy Kampmark looks at the latest Covid-19 outbreak in Sydney and points out that for all its self-praise, the federal government has done much to stifle discussion on flaws in its own quarantine policy, not least its approach to handling the isolation of flight crews.
https://theaimn.com/the-gold-comes-off-a-covid-19-outbreak-in-sydney/
British scientists are trialling a new drug that could prevent someone who has been exposed to coronavirus from going on to develop the disease Covid-19, which experts say could save many lives.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/25/uk-scientists-trial-drug-to-prevent-coronavirus-infection-leading-to-disease
How did scientists tackle Covid so quickly? It’s because they pulled together, explain Charlotte Summers.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/25/scientists-covid-studies-vaccine-2020
Ross Gittins thinks that more working from home might transport us back to the future.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/more-working-from-home-will-transport-us-back-to-the-future-20201224-p56pyu.html
Have Australia’s wealthiest old families bought off the political process? Despite myriad attempts over the years to repeal the cosy “grandfathering” exemption, the billionaires are still permitted – like no other Australians – to keep their companies “dark”. Today Michael West Media unveils the first in a series of investigations by Luke Stacy and Stephanie Tran involving more than 5,000 corporate searches to find the people and the labyrinthine structures behind the Secret Rich List. Luke Stacey and Michael West report.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/inside-australias-secret-rich-list/
The AFR tells us that plaintiff law firm Slater & Gordon is taking action in the Federal Court against ANZ Bank and its former superannuation business now owned by IOOF.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/anz-ioof-hit-with-class-action-over-super-gouging-20201224-p56q0d
The New York Times’ Mark Sandler writes that it took 11 gruelling months for negotiators from Britain and the European Union to hammer out the terms of a post-Brexit trade deal. But in many respects, the deal is already 4 1/2 years out of date, he says.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/for-all-the-fanfare-brexit-is-a-victory-from-a-bygone-era-20201225-p56q5c.html
If EU elites don’t yet realise that this is going to mushroom into one of the biggest failures in the history of the European Project, they will find out soon enough. In a dire warning, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes that the EU’s politicisation of COVID-19 vaccines is turning into an economic and political black swan event.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/vaccine-fiasco-may-be-the-biggest-failure-in-eu-history-20201224-p56pyw
Matthew Knott lists Joe Biden’s five top goals for his first 100 days as President. Joe’s got his work cut out!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-five-big-goals-of-joe-biden-s-first-100-days-20201222-p56pj3.html
The well-off are offering tens of thousands of dollars in cash, making their personal assistants pester doctors every day, and asking whether a five-figure donation to a hospital would help them jump the line.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/wealthy-patients-scramble-for-covid-19-vaccine-if-i-donate-25000-would-that-help-me-20201219-p56oxz.html
Donald Trump has spent Christmas golfing at his Florida club while millions of Americans face losing jobless benefits if he doesn’t sign a $US2.3 trillion coronavirus aid and spending package. What a prick!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7068440/us-govt-shutdown-nears-thanks-to-trump/?cs=14232
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
Simon Letch
Robin Cowcher
Matt Golding
Johannes Leak
John Shakespeare
Andrew Leunig
From the US
Greensborough Growler @ #3 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 6:16 am
I agree with most of the rest of your post but this statement is absolute rubbish. Lots of work is being done on these issues by many Labor politicians. Fitzgibbon is a dangerous distraction and a voice from the past, not the future.
Dennis seems miss a couple of mammoths in the room – namely CV-19 Commonwealth age care death numbers and dodging any responsibility for quarantine.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/12/26/dennis-atkins-slogan-pm-from-harm/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020201226
ajm @ #13 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:02 am
From what I can see, Fitzgibbon is the only one cutting through on this issue .
He’s doing his job very effectively. Perhaps that why you think he’s dangerous.
Greensborough Growler @ #15 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 7:08 am
He’s big noting himself, not cutting through. He will eventually sink without trace. In the meantime he is a distraction.
ajm @ #16 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:16 am
He’s cutting through enough for you and the usual suspects to be distracted and write endless abusive missives about how others are distracted by his grass roots campaign to make Labor electable.
Why are you so frightened?
Apparently the Hillsong cult was one of the few religions “featured” in Christmas broadcasts (SBS, ABC and commercials. No doubt packaged and supplied, and Houston “gave his blessing”. TV channels are now giving it equal status with what I would call the standard religions, no doubt through the Morrison influence. Many people not happy.
So you a 65 year old wealthy Aussie expat living in COVID Central in Florida, prone to playing golf with and otherwise rooting for Dotard. So what do you do? Why not host a golf tournament?
https://www.instagram.com/p/CJO7DQoJytX/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_mid=4390FC0B-0448-4DAE-A8D0-F993F18A6FBD
It appears the Shark has been struck down by COVID-19 on Christmas Day, just over a week after he hosted a golf tournament in Florida.
In an Instagram post on Friday, US-time, Australian golfing great Greg Norman posted a selfie that appeared to be from a hospital, with medical staff in full PPE.
“This sums it all up. My Christmas Day. On behalf of millions, f— CoVid,” he wrote in the caption.
Fitzgibbon cutting through?
Is that why he’s no longer a part of the shadow Cabinet and came close to losing his seat at the last election?
Thanks BK. I’d been trying to forget Tony Abbott!
From PvO’s column, some good-ish news.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/frydenberg-may-be-too-nice-for-top-job-and-thats-just-tough/news-story/8305c1c55ab04430b468ecc6faa6ea24
It reminds me that Dutton has been invisible this year.
Thanks BK. And many many thanks for another years worth of expertly curated links.
This one naturally caught my eye… From SMH Green Eggs and Good Soil.
If only more in the regions were as interested in progressing their farming like this. They are the flotsam exceptions in a sea of ultra conservatives.
Does this look like a group of happy campers as they listen to the miracle man?
Re Lizzie @8:55.
Caption competition?
If Dutton’s been invisible this year he’s certainly maintaining that to the end. As always Morrison is letting a state do the work (with this superyacht in Qld) while preparing to come in to take the credit or distribute blame according to requirements. Isn’t this foreign vessel in our territorial waters a federal issue? Or perhaps it doesn’t leak enough or something? But where’s the “We will decide…” style rhetoric & the Border Force troops?
Morning all and happy christmas and boxing day. Thanks for the roundup BK.
The last two days have been a roller coaster ride. On Christmas Eve my mum had a heart attack (in Qld). She is now recovering well. The medical care she got was rapid and terrific, from ambulance paramedics, to the RFDS flying her to Brisbane immediately, rapid detection of a blockage and “keyhole” insertion of a stent without the need for major surgery. She already feels much better.
As if the covid response were not enough, I now have more personal experience of just how good our public health service is. Doctors said that the relative lack of wards full of flu patients etc thanks to social distancing, meant the system was able to respond quickly as it should, rather than being overcrowded. Gold star, Qld Health. Thanks from my family.
From what I can see, Fitzgibbon is the only one cutting through on this issue .
Bit late to save saddlers jobs by trying to ban cars.
No matter how Fitzgibbon and the Liberals wank there will be no more coal fired power stations in Australia. Both are a waste of space and time.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #21 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:33 am
So, that’s now four critics of Fitzgibbon telling the PB Board that Fitzgibbon is irrelevant and not cutting through because he gathers publicity but no one is listening to him and he’s yesterdays man.
Labor Man with idea to genereate and keep people in jobs is a person the suburban left find dangerous and threatening.
PvO says that Josh Frydenberg may be “too nice” to be Lib leader. Does that mean thta he has been too spineless to stand up against Morrison? Because if not, and he really believes in all the harsh punitive measures, I don’t call that “nice”.
Socrates
Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:58 am
Comment #28
Good report. Good for you and your mum.
Lot of work required in regions. On somebodies agenda ❓
I guess Covid has meant Dutton has kept a low profile. The boats he couldn’t stop (cruise ships), together with his failure to manage an orderly return of Australians left overseas and trying to keep the feds out of the quarantine business will do that. 😀
Socrates:
What a christmas you’ve had, but from the sounds of it, a good outcome for your mum.
Having described what had been stressing my family on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day passed pleasantly, with mum out of the woods. We had a large zoom call where everyone described life for them. An eye-opener were the comments from my brother in regional Qld (where Mum had been) and my nieces fiancee, who is also an engineer in Qld and looking for his first post-graduate job.
Both described a big drop in jobs in the coal industry, with spillover effects. My niece’s fiancee was not looking for work in coal, but was told there were over 100 applicants for each of the jobs he had recently applied for being swamped by people exiting the coal industry looking for other work.
So rather than quote statistics about the futility of coal, I can once more offer first hand experiences that show the strategy of desperately clinging onto a dying industry (coal), rather than building an effective transition package and investing in alternatives (renewables or whatever else they might do in Qld) has been a disaster in human terms as well as economic ones.
Joel F and his fellow shills may spout all the lies they like, but they do it from secure, too-well paid taxpayer funded jobs. In the real world people are suffering.
The promises of coal jobs are about as believable as Boris’ promises about Brexit.
GG
Promising unicorns is not cutting through, and tends to lead to pretty poor outcomes.
Fitzgibbon is proof that kids should not inherit seats from their fathers.
Did it ever occur to you he nearly lost his seat for reason other than coal, people don’t vote for incompetence , and his nonsense is just a bigger and better display of that incompetence.
lizzie @ #31 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 9:02 am
That and the Houston crap is just plain old fashioned horse feathers. I suspect that my smart TV has its work cut out dealing with the layers of BS fouling the air. I guess that Mr. Frydenberg thinks that a wrinkled brow indicates concern for the untermensch.
Happy new year ❗
Socrates
Why do so many things happen on Christmas Day?
Yesterday my little Rowley the Cavalier was bitten by a tiger snake. We didn’t know exactly why he collapsed, but thought it might be a snake and raced 45 mins to an emergency vet surgery. This morning I received a call to say that he’s almost recovered and may come home today.
Now I have to work out how to get rid of the snake that must be living somewhere around the immediate garden.
Kayjay, Confessions
Yes thanks, mum is progressing well. She is already telling people to not worry about her, which is ridiculous from an octogenarian who has just had a heart attack, but typical. I will be talking to her again this afternoon.
Kayjay
Yes as per my second post, there is a pressing need to create jobs in regional Qld, but not in coal or gas! The locals are already painfully aware those either don’t exist or won’t last. But they are desperately looking for alternatives. My brother is only a few years from retirement. My niece’s fiancee is looking at moving interstate with her if needed.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Lizzie
My sympathy and glad to hear Rowley is recovering. Looks like our vets and medicos are on the ball. There are several professional snake catchers in the Adelaide Hills. A friend who needed one a few years ago said they were quite good.
All the best, Socrates. It looks like your mum got the very best attention.
Socrates:
Recently the WA government announced a transition plan to get Collie off its reliance on coal. The industry is definitely in decline.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/w-a-maps-just-transition-for-collie-as-renewables-hasten-coal-industry-decline-96669/
lizzie
Set a thief to catch a thief..
Who do we know in the snake business ❓ The honourable …………………..and ………
Phone your local MP. 🐍🐍
Best wishes to you and Rowley. 😎
Greensborough Growler @ #30 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:00 am
Yep. You lost. 4 to 1 against. Just accept the verdict of the voters.
frednk @ #36 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 9:09 am
Unicorns, seat inheritance and cognitive dissonance are all you’ve got.
The Libs have the seats that Labor needs to win to form Government.
Try thinking of solutions that don’t just pander to your prejudices that might work.
Confessions
Thanks for the Collie example; that is exactly what is needed in Qld.
BK
Thanks and yes she did.
I didn’t mention before but my sister and her husband called from Houston, Texas, where he manages a large hospital. Covid has been a nightmare there for staff. The restrictions and peoples reluctance to do things like elective procedures and screening tests mean that their workload has been up, yet revenue down (in a hospital!) compared to a normal year. Further proof if any is needed that a “let here rip” attitude to covid is insanity.
ajm @ #45 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 9:19 am
Salon lefties telling intent on destroying voter jobs and lifestyles don’t count for much outside PB.
Speaking of (and as a) pale, stale male(s) with acute relevance deprivation syndrome (though not as acute as Fitzgibbon and his fellow travelers), there was a relatively hopeful study on the apparent protective effects of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein over ~ 6 months published in this weeks NEJM.
Essentially it is one of the first to show that antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (in this case from actual infection, but also, probably, those generated by most of the vaccines being developed) seem protective for at least ~6 months. This augers well for the effectiveness of both asymptomatic infection and vaccines to be effective in terminating the COVID-19 pandemic.
Greensborough Growler @ #46 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:24 am
Definition of pot and kettle.