Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August to November

The latest deep dive from Newspoll suggests no particular change in the spread of party support by state since the last election.

The Australian has published the concluding quarterly set of aggregated Newspoll breakdowns for the year, showing results by state, gender, age, education, income, language and religion.

The results have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, a two point shift to the Coalition since last quarter; Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, a one point shift to the Coalition; the Coalition leading 57-43 in Queensland, a two point shift to Labor; the Coalition leading 53-47 in Western Australia, a one point shift to Labor; and the Coalition leading 51-49 in South Australia, a one point shift to the Coalition.

The Australian’s report leads with Labor’s weak position among men, but the gender breakdowns are in fact unchanged on last time with the Coalition leading 53-47 among men and Labor leading 51-49 among women. Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 cohort widens from 58-42 to 61-39, but there is now a tie among the 35-to-49 cohort after Labor lead 53-47 last time. The Coalition’s leads among the older cohorts are little changed, at 55-45 among 50-to-64 and 62-38 among 65-plus.

The recorded gap between English speakers and those who speak a different language at home has narrowed slightly, with the Coalition’s lead among the former going from 52-48 to 51-49 and Labor’s lead among the latter narrowing from 56-44 to 54-46. The other breakdowns record no notable pattern of change: two-party splits vary little by education (although education associates positively with Greens support and negatively with One Nation support); there is no great variation by income until the $150,000-plus cohort, which broke 55-45 for the Coalition; and Christians breaking 59-41 for the Coalition, while those of no religion going 57-43 to Labor.

The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from August to November, from a combined sample of 8123.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,302 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August to November”

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  1. Taylormade

    You look such a twit. All this time and you can’t accept that

    1. The vast majority of deaths in Victoria were in people who were the responsibility of the Federal Government.

    2. The 2nd wave in Victoria happened because Victoria eased restrictions too early and this was at the behest of your beloved Scott “early mark” Morisson.

  2. I said yesterday PB’s wet dream would be Tony Abbott being patient zero – and now it looks like you peeps may have second best (if twitter is to be believed). How exciting for PB.

    I can make out sprocket having conniptions in his blogging lair.

  3. Most doctors think it’s good that Oz is delaying the vaccine to March. We will have a lot more data on the efficacy and safety of the various vaccines and we aren’t in much danger with very small numbers.
    _________________
    Diogenes
    It makes eminent sense.

  4. Wendy Harmer tweets..

    Just got an email from @BeachesMayor
    “Remember, follow the health advice, stay in your zone…”
    We have been very careful to do just that.
    If it’s true TonyAbbott has been gallivanting around the joint, flouting the rules, there are a lot of us who will be well pissed off!

  5. Taylormade @ #1248 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 7:07 pm

    Greensborough Growlersays:
    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    You are a fucking idiot. 800 deaths is the standard. Any state premier who is below that mark has done a better job than Andrews.
    End of story.

    Merry Christmas to you.

    How’s Sarah travelling with an intellectual like you on her team?

  6. When a vaccine is too late:

    The researchers are hoping that AZD7442 … provides protection for those that have been exposed to the virus but do not yet have symptoms.

    “So we hope to find that giving this treatment via injection can lead to immediate protection against the development of COVID-19 … when it would be too late to offer a vaccine.”

    https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-are-trailing-a-new-covid-19-antibody-therapy-to-prevent-people-getting-sick

  7. BK

    I don’t agree and for two reasons.

    Firstly, every month we delay is when you look back on it from later this coming year, another month until the task is finished. Meanwhile the vested interests will push hard to reopen international travel. And they will do so despite us not being fully vaccinated. That’s a real risk and the best way to avoid the risk is to start the vaccination now. Imagine for example its September 2021. We still have millions of people non vaccinated. Its been shown that for the vaccine to get to the point of conferring herd immunity that we need to complete the rollout (and we might only then be talking about an actual 80 percent adoption). Still we make the decision to start allowing people in from the US, UK. Despite the fact that they still have major ongoing infection. Outbreaks recommence in Australia.. That’s not an implausible scenario and its made more likely by delaying the rollout now.

    Secondly, view it in terms of what difference could it actually make to what we actually do. We already have two good, known vaccines with a good safety profile. Yes, adverse events will occur. But by March will we really know for example that there is a third vaccine that is safer/more effective? No, at best it will be debateable. In any case, the best data is local data. We start vaccinating here, now and we keep monitoring people and looking for information. Our data is going to be more reliable/applicable than what we get from overseas. If we discover quirks. If we find specific subgroups that may require a different vaccine, we’ll figure that out fairly quickly.

    A final danger lurks. The more time we delay, the more risk there is to us not from reintroduction of people from outside, but from the internal risk of a 3rd wave. What if with hindsight we discover that what is going on now in Sydney leads to a third wave and Gladys is too politically crippled to lock down.. and things get far worse by March. Would we then regret not having vaccinated the vulnerable by then?

  8. CC

    This isn’t a vaccine, supposedly. (Science Alert is more your “Wow Science!” type of publication.) They’re calling it a therapy. Did rhw comment on a therapy?

  9. Cud
    Remain in further lockdown, no exemptions, appoint Andrews with authority to impose the lockdown nationally. The taylormade, irrationally obsessed need a firm hand!

  10. yabba:

    [‘We are all awake to your concocted pustular discharges…’]

    Please refrain from using the first-person plural personal pronoun (nominative case) “we”. That’s reserved for royalty and solicitors.
    And although dear Lars is sometimes over the top, your description of him is over the top too. Get a grip, dear.

  11. “yabba:

    [‘We are all awake to your concocted pustular discharges…’]

    And although dear Lars is sometimes over the top, your description of him is over the top too. Get a grip, dear.”

    ____

    I dunno Mavis. I reckon Yabba is either on the money or being far to mild in describing a thing not even good enough to pass as an internet troll.

    Here’s some actual footage of L’arse being pulled from C@t’s nose:

    https://youtu.be/fU6XTZ1vEoM

  12. sprocket_ @ #1250 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 4:08 pm

    Lots of people not happy with Tony Abbott at the moment, allegedly Lycra-ing round the Northern Beaches…

    I asked this before and got no answers, but as I understand it people within the northern beaches can still move about the wider zone (northern and southern), they just can’t go out of the greater northern beaches zone.

  13. Confessions @ #1269 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 8:54 pm

    sprocket_ @ #1250 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 4:08 pm

    Lots of people not happy with Tony Abbott at the moment, allegedly Lycra-ing round the Northern Beaches…

    I asked this before and got no answers, but as I understand it people within the northern beaches can still move about the wider zone (northern and southern), they just can’t go out of the greater northern beaches zone.

    I read he bought the coffee and met up with Piers Ackerman and there are photos.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 8:50 pm

    [‘I dunno Mavis. I reckon Yabba is either on the money or being far to mild in describing a thing not even good enough to pass as an internet troll.’]

    Yabba’s description of Lars must go close to the very worst I’ve seen on this site. Yes, Edwina’s extremely provocative and most likely delights in his posts but yabba’s way out of line. If, as you contend, Lars is a troll, the solution’s easy.

  15. Greensborough Growler:

    Tuesday, December 29, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    [‘Lars really appreciates your support.’]

    It’s not really a case of support. I really abhor the strong adjectives used by some who don’t share another poster’s views. As I said to Andrew, cat and others have a distinct choice.

  16. Is this a clever misleading headline, or a misfire?

    Brexit will discourage others from leaving the EU, Barnier says

    https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-discourage-others-leaving-eu-michel-barnier/

    Is he saying that the EU punishes leavers or that anyone wanting to join better think twice? If you read the article Barnier is actually saying that it will be clear very soon that the UK is worse off on it’s own. Don’t let it happen to you. Keep your people happy.

    “There are true differences between a member country and a third country! We will see it pretty soon,” he added, while calling on the EU to “draw lessons from Brexit” and take closer heed of citizens’ concerns.

  17. Mavis @ #1265 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 8:15 pm

    yabba:

    [‘We are all awake to your concocted pustular discharges…’]

    Please refrain from using the first-person plural personal pronoun (nominative case) “we”. That’s reserved for royalty and solicitors.
    And although dear Lars is sometimes over the top, your description of him is over the top too. Get a grip, dear.

    Of course Matron. Whatever you say, Matron. Not.

  18. Just found out my great great uncle was elected at this:

    “On Friday, 16 October 1885, elections for the NSW Legislative Assembly began at 8.00am. The Assembly consisted of 122 Members. Conducting the election continued over the next two weeks in different electorates across NSW. This was the last NSW election in which there was no recognisable party structure.”

  19. Those were the days c/- A Sydney Uni publication

    “ Four candidates stood in Glebe. They were not chosen by any party. They nominated, volunteers to serve without remuneration, imbued with a sense of duty and obligation and responsibility. They addressed meetings of the citizens in the Glebe Town Hall in the days leading up to the election.”

  20. Andrew Wu
    By Andrew Wu
    December 29, 2020 — 9.52pm

    Sydney was expected on Tuesday night to hold on to its beloved New Year’s Test after a desperate bid by the NSW government and the state’s cricket officials to keep the iconic fixture at the SCG.

    It came after days of frantic talks between cricket administrators and a suite of stakeholders, including the NSW and Queensland governments.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/sydney-set-to-hold-on-to-new-year-s-test-at-the-scg-20201229-p56qmr.html

  21. Shellbell, I think closer to the time for decision on attending the SCG.

    I have allocated members tickets for the first 4 days, but that was with full capacity – don’t know what the old hacks on the Trust will do with 50% capacity now? I’m hoping the excellent Dr Kerry Chant will deliver a string of donuts over the coming 10 days – in any case, if I attend it will be bemasked.

  22. ”I got 6/20 for this quiz. Unsurprising as most of my media consumption this year has been focused on the US elections.”

    Not my type of quiz. I know stuff like what African Capital is named after an American President but have no idea what Kim Kardashian’s been up to.

  23. Sprocket

    Hope you have a good time.

    Last New Years‘ test I attended was the one which ended in Clarke and Katich going at each other in the change room

  24. Shellbell

    Our first house was an old weatherboard cottage, set by itself in a wilderness of about 100 acres. The 100 acres had been subdivided into quarter acre blocks about a century before, but ours was the only house built there.

    There was also a railway line and a station.

    In the ‘good old days’ when politicians weren’t paid, the only people who went into politics did so because they had something to gain.

    Our subdivision existed because a Victorian MP in the late 1800s had bought up the land. He had then ensured that the railway was built to service it.

    The mysteries of the Victorian rail network – and the problems it causes to this day – are due to Victorian MPs making use of their unpaid positions to line their own pockets.

  25. zoomster @ #1292 Tuesday, December 29th, 2020 – 9:36 pm

    Shellbell

    Our first house was an old weatherboard cottage, set by itself in a wilderness of about 100 acres. The 100 acres had been subdivided into quarter acre blocks about a century before, but ours was the only house built there.

    There was also a railway line and a station.

    In the ‘good old days’ when politicians weren’t paid, the only people who went into politics did so because they had something to gain.

    Our subdivision existed because a Victorian MP in the late 1800s had bought up the land. He had then ensured that the railway was built to service it.

    The mysteries of the Victorian rail network – and the problems it causes to this day – are due to Victorian MPs making use of their unpaid positions to line their own pockets.

    Seems his venture was a bit of a failure in any case. Served him right.

  26. Confessions

    “ I got 6/20 for this quiz. Unsurprising as most of my media consumption this year has been focused on the US elections.”
    ————
    I assume “focussed” is what’s called understatement!

    If honest, the words should be “gun-slinging obsessed’!

  27. Confessions,

    In answer to your earlier question, I live in the Southern Northern Beaches (???), and we’re definitely not supposed to wander over the Narrabeen bridge. Except to go to Warriewood shopping centre, strangely enough.

    But yeah, T. Abbott was well and truly out of bounds.

  28. Average over the 4 quizzes was 12/20. However, I missed a lot because I thought to myself…that’s not the answer, surely? And it was! Also, photo questions were really tough and the dinosaur discovered in Australia I only just learned about then. 😀

  29. Zoomster

    Yes. I was involved in a matter once where a truck hit a train 100kms west of Albury but in NSW.

    We needed to know this legislation for some reason.

    “ An Act to enable Victorian and Queensland by-laws to be applied to Victorian and Queensland railways situate in New South Wales, and to the traffic thereon; and for other purposes.”

    As to my distant relative, I think he was maybe altruistic. He was a lecturer in pathology.

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