Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Further improvement in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (steady), Labor 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one, and their weakest result since at least the 2019 election). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 66% and down two on disapproval to 30%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and up two to 41%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 58-29 to 60-28. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1511.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

915 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 19
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  1. Player One says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:23 pm
    Non @ #144 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    Incidentally, this is not “doing nothing”. It is responding to voters…which is the core business of political parties.

    Right. Responding …

    Clearly, responding in a way that really irritates you, among others. This is evidence that Albo is doing a reasonable job in the circumstances. They day you start to applaud Albo is the day I’ll start to have my doubts about him. The more upset you become the better he will be travelling with the voters that matter.

  2. Non @ #153 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:28 pm

    Player One says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:23 pm
    Non @ #144 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    Incidentally, this is not “doing nothing”. It is responding to voters…which is the core business of political parties.

    Right. Responding …

    Clearly, responding in a way that really irritates you, among others. This is evidence that Albo is doing a reasonable job in the circumstances. They day you start to applaud Albo is the day I’ll start to have my doubts about him. The more upset you become the better he will be travelling with the voters that matter.

    ‘the voters that matter’
    WTF does that mean.
    Anyway, clearly Albo is doing Scrunt slowly.
    Very, very, very, slowly.

  3. The Age.
    The Victorian government will break up the department that led the state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, with Health to be demerged from Human Services.

    The split reverses a decision taken by Mr Andrews early in his time as Premier, when he merged the two departments in 2015.
    ________________
    Should never have been merged in the 1st place. What was he thinking back then?

  4. Liberals specialise in doing nothing. They’re past masters at it. Howard was a genius at doing nothing while pretending to be taking action. Eventually this will catch up with them. Hopefully, when this happens, the Faux will also stop finding ways to prop up the Liberals and Labor will have half a chance of winning an election.

  5. Non @ #153 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:28 pm

    Player One says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:23 pm
    Non @ #144 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    Incidentally, this is not “doing nothing”. It is responding to voters…which is the core business of political parties.

    Right. Responding …

    Clearly, responding in a way that really irritates you, among others. This is evidence that Albo is doing a reasonable job in the circumstances. They day you start to applaud Albo is the day I’ll start to have my doubts about him. The more upset you become the better he will be travelling with the voters that matter.

    Don’t be bitter – you have the climate policy you want – i.e. “doing nothing” and the leader you want “doing nothing”.

    One might be forgiven for suspecting that you don’t actually want Labor to do any better than it currently is.

  6. Mundo….mundo….mundo….the voters who matter are not P1. They are the past-LNP cohorts that will have to be persuaded they can trust Labor with their economic prospects….the voters of provincial and outer-suburban Queensland, NSW and WA. There are a lot of them. They have never heard of poll bludging.

  7. Of course, in WA, where Labor is in power, we have a serious and comprehensive set of policies to address reform in the energy sector and to respond to climate change. Not that this interests P1, who is fixated on denial at all times. They celebrate despair.

  8. Non @ #160 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:40 pm

    They celebrate despair.

    Just remind me … how many times have you posted that Labor has no chance of winning, and that “We’re Fucked”.

    I didn’t keep count, but offhand, I’d say it has to be at least 30 times. Could easily be many more – there are doubtless many that I missed because I actually have a life.

  9. “The reality is that old Joe will be 80 years old after the mid-terms.”

    ***

    Pfft! 82 is the new 78! Practically a spring chicken!

  10. The Spirit of Australia is moving ahead with its ‘restructure’ plans.

    Ground handling operations staff woke up this morning to find out their jobs were being outsourced.

    From Qantas’s release:

    Qantas has this morning notified around 2000 employees that it will move to outsource ground handling operations at 10 airports across Australia as it works to recover from the COVID crisis.

    In August, the airline announced its reasons for needing to restructure its ground handling operations, which includes baggage handling and aircraft cleaning, and commenced a review of external bids from specialist ground handlers and in-house bids from employees and their representatives.

    The bids were required to meet the following objectives:

    Reducing the overall cost of ground handling operations (as Qantas anticipated it could save approximately $100 million annually, based on pre-COVID levels of flying, through the use of third-party providers)
    Avoiding large spending on ground handling equipment such as aircraft tugs and baggage loaders ($80 million over five years)
    Better matching our ground handling services, and their cost, with fluctuating levels of demand.
    The Transport Workers Union (TWU) submitted a bid on behalf of employees in accordance with terms in the enterprise agreement. Teams from some individual airports submitted local proposals. Unfortunately, none of these bids met the objectives.

  11. Player One says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:45 pm
    Non @ #160 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:40 pm

    They celebrate despair.
    Just remind me … how many times have you posted that Labor has no chance of winning, and that “We’re Fucked”.

    Yes. The dysfunction in federal politics means Labor have almost no chance of winning. The dysfunction is institutionalised. It is necessary for the Greens to survive. It means Labor have to find other ways to achieve their goals until the plurality can be restored.

    It’s very possible that this will not be done in anything less than a few decades.

  12. Non @ #164 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:49 pm

    It means Labor have to find other ways to achieve their goals until the plurality can be restored.

    Here’s an idea … why doesn’t Labor try actually doing something? I know it may sound a little crazy to those who think doing nothing is a sound election strategy … but who knows – it just might work!

  13. a r says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:09 pm

    Non @ #135 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 11:06 am

    They particularly dislike carping, whinging, gotcha games, which they regard as childishly insulting and degrading.

    Tony Abbott begs to differ!
    ——————————–
    a.r
    Peta Credlin reckons it took Abbott six months to start cutting through and that was helped the ALP going to war with itself. The ALP brought about Abbott and proves what happens if politics becomes too overbearing.

  14. Old Joe did a great service for the Dems by selecting Kamala Harris and reaching out to the young progressives.

    It largely helped him get to 80m votes – and defeat Trump.

    He has done the job.

    He can live his dream occupying the Whitehouse for a couple of years to complete his career – then transition Harris in to consolidate the Dem future.

    He will go down in history as a Dems legend.

  15. There does seem to be a concerted effort to create and foster a personality cult around “Scott Morrison Great and Glorious Leader and Man of the People”.

    It is sourced with Morrison himself, close hangers on and complicit media bosses. Unfortunately for the LNP as a whole, it seeks to promote Morrison as a one man band who can do no wrong, in contrast to some of his ministerial colleagues and the public service.

    In this regard, the Morrison personality cult is disturbingly similar to the aura created around dictatorial leaders, as people who work tirelessly for the good of the population, make wise and correct decisions and when things go wrong, it is always the fault of somebody else. Xi and Kim come to mind.

    The problem for the rest of the LNP is that, while Morrison personally enjoys high approval ratings courtesy of the good work done by premiers on Covid-19, the party as a whole is barely competitive in the polls. There must be more than a few MPs and Senators who are uneasy at the promotion of the Morrison personality cult.

  16. “The reality is that old Joe will be 80 years old after the mid-terms.”

    ***

    Pfft! 82 is the new 78! Practically a spring chicken!

    You both supported a 79-year-old. Sit down.

    Edit: Slight self-correction here but he was only 78 when the primaries were on but still older than Biden.

  17. Player One says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:52 pm
    Non @ #164 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:49 pm

    It means Labor have to find other ways to achieve their goals until the plurality can be restored.

    Here’s an idea …

    Labor are doing things….just not things you might like. Good. You’re a detractor. You don’t count.

    At the same time, Labor are not able to control the mischief of the Greens. They will go on making as much trouble for Labor as they can. This is necessary for their survival. It will not stop.

  18. Rex Douglas @ #167 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:26 pm

    Old Joe did a great service for the Dems by selecting Kamala Harris and reaching out to the young progressives.

    It largely helped him get to 80m votes – and defeat Trump.

    He has done the job.

    He can live his dream occupying the Whitehouse for a couple of years to complete his career – then transition Harris in to consolidate the Dem future.

    He will go down in history as a Dems legend.

    I dont get this. If he is able and willing then he should contest 2024. There is significant advantage to the incumbent and not all of that will easily transfer to another Democrat candidate – even Harris.

  19. Non @ #158 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 12:36 pm

    Mundo….mundo….mundo….the voters who matter are not P1. They are the past-LNP cohorts that will have to be persuaded they can trust Labor with their economic prospects….the voters of provincial and outer-suburban Queensland, NSW and WA. There are a lot of them. They have never heard of poll bludging.

    I agree.
    Mostly they’ve never heard of Albo either.

  20. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 12:56 pm
    Old Joe did a great service for the Dems by selecting Kamala Harris and reaching out to the young progressives.

    The so-called progressives don’t much like Harris.

    Biden has indicated he will populate powerful positions in his administration with women. This will help defeat the sexist views that women cannot be relied on with power. In turn, this will set the scene for Harris to succeed him. This will take time. The Trumpists will try to prevent it from happening….try to defeat, disrupt, disable, discredit and dismiss this from the top down. It’s already commenced. Rexology is a part of this reactionary project.

  21. I suspect the hard line right wingers in the LNP have many of the same concerns about Morrison as are expressed on these pages – that he will do anything to maintain popularity. In their case, this is centred around his willingness to throw money (or at least the promise of it) around.

    Their support of him will only last as long as he keeps the approval ratings at very high levels. If it starts to slip, even a little, watch them desert in droves.

  22. ”Joe is likely to drop off the perch mid-term…”

    Well it could happen to anyone but probably won’t.

    In a first world country, the life expectancy of a man aged 78 who is in good health is about 10 years. Joe seems to be pretty tough and a man of moderate habits so he’ll probably do better than the odds. He will also have the best medical and health care immediately on hand.

  23. Non @ #170 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 1:08 pm

    At the same time, Labor are not able to control the mischief of the Greens. They will go on making as much trouble for Labor as they can. This is necessary for their survival. It will not stop.

    Your Greens obsession is showing. But I guess blaming the Greens for your own problems is easier than actually doing anything to fix them, isn’t it?

  24. I am genuinely conflicted over the correct apporach for Labot to be taking at the moment.

    On one hand, I would hope that if they really started opposing the government strongly, that would resonate with the public and also put the government off balance. They would show that they really want to be in government.

    On the other hand, playing it low key at the moment may be the best way of rebuilding trust with he electorate, which that can ten draw down on as an election approaches.

    The arguments for both approaches are actually quite strong. The reactions of the people who usually post on this blog are unlikely to be representative of the electorate at large.

  25. Player One says:
    Monday, November 30, 2020 at 1:18 pm
    Non @ #170 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 1:08 pm

    At the same time, Labor are not able to control the mischief of the Greens. They will go on making as much trouble for Labor as they can. This is necessary for their survival. It will not stop.

    Your Greens obsession is showing. But I guess blaming the Greens for your own problems is easier than actually doing anything to fix them, isn’t it?

    The path to power for Labor consists in listening to voters and being accountable to them, and not in heeding their opponents….the Greens and their sponsors and the LNP and its various clones. The anti-Labor parties have only ill-intentions as far as Labor is concerned. There is nothing to gain by accomodating them.

  26. To be fair, yes, someone Biden’s age has a higher risk of dying in the next four years than someone younger than him. Even with things like top shelf healthcare and medical response (as well as the US government having an active mandate to keep him safe at all costs) it is exacerbated by the unforgivingly stressful nature of the job. There is no denying it and that is something that those who are in charge of protecting him and keeping him alive will be acutely aware of in the next term.

    However, all Presidents are mortal and are all vulnerable to dying in office. One sudden illness or massive heart attack, or an assassin’s bullet can make that change. While the best preventative measures are put in place, it’s not 100% failsafe. That’s why there is a clear succession plan in place and he’ll have a great Vice President who will absolutely be prepared and ready lest something bad happens.

    Also, adding to my previous tweet, 2020 was hardly a choice between the old guy and the young guy. Both candidates were septuagenarians and, while Trump is a few years younger, he’s hardly the epitome of health. Even in the Democratic primaries, the other serious alternatives included someone older and someone in her early 70s.

  27. Surprised (not) that no one has pointed out that the imbecile Morrison is standing there on a sweltering Canberra summer day with the fly screen door open. The blowies that time of year are generally big enough to throw a saddle over.

    Then again, because he has his back to us, he may well be standing there with his mouth open trying to eat them. Either way, at least we don’t have to see the piss stained shorts and be thankful that it isn’t Trump because we all know what we’d be looking at there.

  28. https://www.theklaxon.com.au/home/nine-fairfax-independence-charter-a-sham-ecscp

    Nine Entertainment’s board never signed the independence charter that governed Fairfax Media, the 180 year-old media company it took over in a mega $4.2 billion merger two years ago.

    The Klaxon can exclusively reveal Nine has failed to sign – or to ratify in any legally binding way – the storied charter, which underpinned the editorial integrity of several of Australia’s biggest and most influential newspapers – including the The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Australian Financial Review – for the past three decades.

    That is despite Nine bluffing for the past two years and implying that it had done so.

    The explosive revelations go to the heart of the independence of media in Australia and come just three week after a senate inquiry into media ownership was called.

    Nine spokesman Nic Christensen confirmed Nine had never signed the Fairfax Charter of Editorial Independence.

    That confirmation came just over two weeks ago, and was in response to a series of questions The Klaxon put to Nine management and its board of directors.

    Hours after that confirmation, Nine CEO Hugh Marks announced his shock resignation.

    In subsequent correspondence with us, Nine has failed to provide a single document – or any written evidence whatsoever – showing that it is in any way bound by the former Fairfax independence charter.

  29. Even in the Democratic primaries, the other serious alternatives included someone older and someone in her early 70s.

    And Bloomberg – same age as Biden.

  30. And Bloomberg – same age as Biden.

    Of course. Forgot about him.

    In fact, if you want to look at the less serious candidates who were never going to win the nomination, at one point Mike Gravel was in the race and he was in his late 80s at the time.

  31. South AustraliaAuthorities now say the man did not breach quarantine, as he was a casual contact and not under a quarantine order.— Joe O'Brien (@JoeABCNews) November 30, 2020

    The messaging coming out is very confusing.

  32. Morrison had better be careful with his rhetoric to China. For China to apologise about an official’s tweet would may involve loss of face. To bastardise a quote by Keynes: China can remain irrational longer than Australia can remain solvent.

  33. Message to Morrison- just shut up. The Abbott/ Morrison style of Government- commentate on everything, is going to get you into big trouble with China.

  34. Sohar @ #121 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 8:29 am

    Sums up the uselessness of Albo:

    Anthony Albanese@AlboMP
    It’s nearly Christmas and there are still 30,000+ Aussies stranded overseas. We need to bring them home.

    Reezy Miller@Trixie_Boo
    Replying to @AlboMP
    Sorry, this kind of tweet just doesn’t cut it.
    You need to provide clear, concise details of what Labor would do. Then repeat, repeat, repeat. And use hashtags, for goodness sake #BringThemHome

    I would have thought it sums up the free pass the Government gets all the time.

    Whose responsibility is it to deal with this issue?

    Hint: Not anyone out of Government.

  35. Mavis @ #192 Monday, November 30th, 2020 – 1:21 pm

    More on that “shocking” tweet:

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-should-be-totally-ashamed-pm-demands-china-take-down-post-20201130-p56j4p.html

    What is that? Someone in the Chinas Ministry of Foreign Affairs shared an unflattering doctored image wrt Australian warcrimes – and Morrison goes nuts? Imaging what would happen if an MP for the ruling party accused Australia of being akin to Nazi Germany?

  36. Reezy Miller@Trixie_Boo
    Replying to @AlboMP
    Sorry, this kind of tweet just doesn’t cut it.
    You need to provide clear, concise details of what Labor would do. Then repeat, repeat, repeat. And use hashtags, for goodness sake #BringThemHome

    The problem I have with this tweet is not the initial premise. Absolutely he should be pushed to do more. Coddling him or treating him as though he’s some poor little guy who just can’t catch a break helps no one. The problem I have is the conclusion: that his message needs to be crafted to trend well on Twitter. I hate this insular thinking that people have on Twitter, where they think their online bubble is real life.

    Not only that, but the incorrect belief that a trending hashtag is meaningful at all. Every time I visit Twitter, I see a plethora of trending political hashtags and, if any of them slightly represented reality, Morrison would be absolutely tanking in the polls. And, on a broader scale, Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn would be POTUS and UKPM respectively. Twitter is just a collection of echo chambers. It’s not real life. It’s not a battleground that needs to be won to be electorally successful (just like Parliamentary Question Time and next week’s episode of Q and A aren’t either.)

  37. There hasn’t been a worse time in Sino/Australian relations. Without apportioning blame, I’m not sure that Morrison has the wherewithal to handle what has become – at least as far as trade is concerned – a major crisis. This will only get worse until calmer heads – ie, diplomats – tone the angst down.

  38. Labor needs to sort out what it stands for. Then it can have a cut through leader.

    Agree with them or not Bob Hawke Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd had cut through.

    Labor’s problem is that it has a faction that thinks it’s more important to demonise the Greens and Climate Change action than it is to win elections. They pretend that’s how you win elections.

    I use the word demonise with extreme care.

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