Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Further improvement in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (steady), Labor 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one, and their weakest result since at least the 2019 election). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 66% and down two on disapproval to 30%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and up two to 41%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 58-29 to 60-28. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1511.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

915 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Talking to Great-Aunty Eunice today whose been feeling poorly lately, she said she was losing hope that she would live long enough to see the next Labor Government.

  2. RHW
    That’s the theme of the book but it was a place where White Australia lived on a little bit longer (given who the patients were)

  3. Two thirds of Australians are idiots, clearly. Given the way that the likes of Trump, BoJo and Morrison thrive no wonder con artists like Peter Foster can operate (at least for a while).

  4. In March ..
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he believes the UK can “turn the tide” against the outbreak within the next 12 weeks and the country can “send coronavirus packing”.

    What is it with right wing populists politicians that they have to use such dumb-arsed language?

  5. Confessions says:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 10:07 pm

    Astonishing that the govt isn’t further ahead in the polls.

    The Liberals’ best results followed their adoption of counter-Lib policies and polemics. Their retreat from income support has led to the deflation of their approval numbers. That aside, the restraint shown by Federal Labor – their refusal to politicise Covid – has also prevented an upsurge in support for the incumbents.

  6. Like it or not Morrison has been in the right place at the right time.

    As well, every state and territory leader has benefited from being front and centre during 2020 with approval ratings ranging from the high 50’s to the mid 80’s.

    It is just the way it is. Leaders are getting the thumbs up for keeping Australia and Australians relatively safe. That is the main game in town atm. Anything else is just noise. Opposition leaders have been irelevant to events and marked down if they are seen to be disruptive and constantly negative. Not a fertile space in which to find oneself and little that can be done about it. It is certainly not just Albanese. In fact , having labor almost on par with the government at 49-51 with a PV of 36 is not too shabby in this brave new world at a time when opposition leaders and parties are receiving little media attention and “ screen time”. If Albanese is being attacked for being the cause of Morrison having approval in the 60’s then every state and territory opposition leader across the country must be to blame for the ratings of their respective premiers and chief ministers.

    I have no idea where things will go next year but with covid perhaps slowly fading into the “ new normal” phase voters may turn their attention to other priorities.

    Let us see if labor is up to the challenge.

  7. Hmmm. Wonder what this is about?

    Anthony Klan
    @Anthony_Klan
    Police cars revolving light

    Huge scandal re Nine Entertainment and its chair Peter Costello brewing. Tomorrow midday. Only @ The Klaxon
    The Klaxon
    theklaxon.com.au

  8. This time last year Morrison was getting ready to be flushed down the toilet over his bushfire response. Just 12 months later he has approval ratings in the 60’s.

    Nobody knows what the next 12 months will bring politically. Where voters turn their attention may surprise all of us.

    However, one thing I do know. The same posters and armchair strategists on PB will continue to suck on lemons and spew out the same bullshit and continue to demand labor do this or that or else face certain defeat.

    Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat.

  9. doyley @ #17 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 10:44 pm

    The same posters and armchair strategists on PB will continue to suck on lemons and spew out the same bullshit and continue to demand labor do this or that or else face certain defeat.

    Actually, most of us “armchair strategists” would probably settle for Labor doing … well, anything really.

    Doing nothing is a strategy the same way atheism is a religion, or not collecting stamps is a hobby.

  10. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 10:32 pm

    Is blaming Labor leader a new thing? or just tired old beat up by supposed Greenies who in bed with LNP?

  11. doyley

    The same posters and armchair strategists on PB will continue to suck on lemons and spew out the same bullshit and continue to demand labor do this or that or else face certain defeat.

    And all the while the same armchair experts will say such people are speaking rubbish and their ideas stupid, people insistent the ‘head office’ brains trust are geniuses instead of the losers their track record indicates.

  12. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 10:56 pm

    By Empty Chair you mean non existent media who don’t give a shit about what Opposition Says ?

    Not the first time I’ve seen this argument, not the last.

  13. So despite improving economic conditions and successful virus containment the Liberals get no real bounce and people here keep talking as if the Liberals hold 90+ seats and a 10 point TPP lead.

  14. Zerlo @ #22 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 10:59 pm

    By Empty Chair you mean non existent media who don’t give a shit about what Opposition Says ?

    Not the first time I’ve seen this argument, not the last.

    By Empty Chair, I mean a leader who apparently neither knows how to cut through, nor cares when he doesn’t.

    He may as well not exist at all.

  15. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:06 pm

    The old Blame Opposition Leader not Cut through trick. Sorry but not every leader needs to be a loud mouth failed snake oil salesmen like Scotty.

  16. Zerlo @ #25 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 11:10 pm

    The old Blame Opposition Leader not Cut through trick. Sorry but not every leader needs to be a loud mouth failed snake oil salesmen like Scotty.

    You have to make an impact if you want to win.

    If all you want to do is collect your salary and perks, then I concede that doing nothing is a reasonable course of action.

  17. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:15 pm

    Or make a point, this isn’t a sales job.

    If you want a sales job, there is plenty of jobs for that.

    Joe Biden didn’t cut through, but just to the various f’up’s on the pandemic, the media turned on Trump, including Fox News and Friends.

  18. Has someone adopted a dynamic approach to analysis of opinion polls? Not my area of expertise, so hence the question. I suspect variance is reduced at present. But, harder to gauge if the algorithm for calculation of the headline TPP has been modified post-election.

  19. Zerlo:

    Joe Biden didn’t cut through, but just to the various f’up’s on the pandemic, the media turned on Trump, including Fox News and Friends.

    It is more than possible that the pandemic boosted the vote for Trump

  20. “It is more than possible that the pandemic boosted the vote for Trump”

    …and almost certain that it boosted the vote against him.

  21. E. G. Theodoresays:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:29 pm

    Mainly due to males who are ignorant ? Male vote for trump increased.

    I’m looking forward to December 14th.

  22. Queensland today in its official blurb announced 2 new cases in hotel quarantine. One was classified as a local infection owing to the infection occurring on our soil (even though its no threat to the wider community). Other states have done this also.

  23. The polls now are roughly where they were a year ago. Nothing much has changed as far as federal voting expectancy and affiliation is concerned. Considering the prominence of the pandemic in social and economic life, this is an excellent result for Labor, and compares well with the dismal rankings of Oppositions in State jurisdictions.

    Labor has a National Conference coming up. This is the democratic forum within which party priorities and policies will be determined. It will shape Labor’s platform and polemics for the coming election, having been deferred from 2020 due to Covid. Conference is far more important to Labor and its membership than the utterly puerile, self-gratifying whinging of those who do not belong to Labor but never cease their preaching and their denunciations. The whingers should get a life. Labor will make its own way without the help of its detractors.

  24. Over 120 years ago it was thought by those who envisaged the commonwealth of Australia it would be a good idea to have quarantine powers exercisable by the feds. They were right. Australia has since then been reasonably well protected by having quarantine stations located around the country and at airports etc. all operating under a single operating procedure.

    Overt time those quarantine powers significantly fell into disuse, caused by an increase in international travel into Australia and, remarkably, a reduction in the need to quarantine people because of the improvement in testing for and controlling a myriad of diseases.

    COVID 19 has upset that previous happy state. It is difficult to test for – because of its incubation period- it is widespread (being a pandemic) and ther is no vaccine. Just the sort of conditions that existed 120 years ago.

    Understandably the feds were unprepared to introduce a fully functioning quarantine system by the end of March 2020. The result was that each State has had to implement its own q system, on pain of suffering a severe outbreak if the State should muck up its system, or be unlucky.

    This result – 7 systems – is imperfect. Borders are closed increasing social and economic disruption to already tested social systems. The feds keep complaining about State restrictions, knowing that it is the State that will suffer from and take the blame for any outbreaks.

    When are the feds going to be asked to pull their fingers out and actually use their undoubted q powers to ensure we can return to being one nation, not 7 States, and enable overseas aussies to return some time in the next 5 years.

    It is disgraceful.

  25. From WA’s point of view, it’s a considerable relief that the Commonwealth has flunked out on Quarantine. They’re uselessly ideological and cynical. Very fortunately, the State has run its own very effective system.

  26. Windhover

    Even if the Feds were fully in control of quarantine, it would still make perfect sense to have closed state borders at times and at other times have blanket testing of interstate travellers.

  27. The sardonic wit expressed by the Australian voters! The daggy dad is one more bucket of poo away from justifying having Jen and the gals keeping their bags packed, ready to bolt, when the Australian public take the circus seriously.
    The question, “is Scott Morrison going okay?”, and the answer, “oh yeah”, is enough to command the attention of the only national broadsheet,(what’s that?) is truly an unfavourable indictment of the political bubble and the associated sway of flim flam hanger-oners surrounding daggy and his government.
    No-one takes daggy seriously, as he portrays his own mocking caricature. Norman Gunstanish belly wobble!

  28. Found this comment n 60 mins. Didn’t see it myself.

    Sara @_sara_jade_
    ·
    6h
    That’s it? How pathetic is #60minutes will never go near it again. What a pathetic fake 5 min interview just like ScumMo the man, an excuse to drag #DanAndrews good works & good name through the mud that’s all. Manipulative, dishonest & deliberate. Was that Credlin? Sickly.

  29. Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall

    BREAK: The Wisconsin recount, requested by and paid for by the Trump campaign, is complete. The result? Biden gained 87 votes. As expected, he’s carried the state.

  30. Mexicanbeemer @ #24 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 11:02 pm

    So despite improving economic conditions and successful virus containment the Liberals get no real bounce and people here keep talking as if the Liberals hold 90+ seats and a 10 point TPP lead.

    Not me. That’s mundo you’re thinking about. His job is to make it seem like Scott Morrison is streeting the field and others like P1, south and Roy Orbison complain monotonously about Albanese not having ‘cut through’, or whatever the frame of the day from the media and Morrison is. I think this week it’s, ‘leadership rumblings’. 🙄

  31. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Scott Morrison now finds himself ending a horrible year in an unimaginably better electoral position than when he began it and the Coalition after seven years in government is the most internally stable it has been, writes Simon Benson about the latest Newspoll.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-people-use-pandemic-to-support-scott-morrison/news-story/e5f71022ec1b768130de6af8c34dcc14
    David Crowe tells us that more than two million workers have left the $101.3 billion JobKeeper scheme since the federal government reduced the wage subsidy at the end of September in a sign of economic recovery as fewer employers rely on the extraordinary assistance. Meanwhile the argument about the level of payment for Jobseeker continues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/millions-off-jobkeeper-as-frydenberg-signals-economic-recovery-is-taking-shape-20201129-p56ixn.html
    Jennifer Duke looks at the two sides of the Jobseeker argument.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-two-issues-policymakers-have-to-grapple-with-on-jobseeker-20201129-p56ite.html
    Top economists want JobSeeker boosted by $100+ per week and tied to wages, writes Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/top-economists-want-jobseeker-boosted-by-100-per-week-and-tied-to-wages-150364
    And Professor Jeff Borland says that “if JobSeeker was to climb A$125 per week from $282.85 to $407.85, it would still be only a little more than half the national minimum wage. The increase would leave JobSeeker recipients at the very bottom of the distribution of earnings of full-time adult workers – the bottom percentile. This means 99 out of every 100 full-time jobs would pay more.”
    https://theconversation.com/new-finding-boosting-jobseeker-wouldnt-keep-australians-away-from-paid-work-150454
    Michael Pascoe opines that what the economy needs next is redistribution.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/11/30/michael-pascoe-redistribution/
    Michelle Grattan wonders how the ADF chief will react if the government insists that the Special Operations Task Group should keep its citations.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-how-will-adf-chief-react-if-government-insists-special-operations-task-group-should-keep-citation-151075
    Australian citizens stranded overseas due to COVID-19 and flight caps, feel abandoned by the Morrison Government, writes Candice Dix.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/stuck-overseas-aussies-struggle-to-come-home,14557
    NSW’s clean energy plan means the federal government is even more isolated on fossil fuels, explains Adam Morton.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/nsws-clean-energy-plan-means-the-federal-government-is-even-more-isolated-on-fossil-fuels
    Sean Kelly reckons Morrison should heed his own advice – and fix his culture problem.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-should-heed-his-own-advice-and-fix-his-culture-problem-20201129-p56iwn.html
    Labor MP Julian Hill is pushing for the Auditor-General to have more independence over his budget by removing it from the Prime Minister’s responsibilities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-pushes-for-audit-office-to-come-out-from-prime-minister-s-watch-20201129-p56iwt.html
    Meanwhile, Australians increasingly view corruption as a major problem and their faith in the federal government’s ability to handle it is greatly diminishing, a new report has found.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/30/australians-trust-government-to-handle-covid-but-not-corruption-report-finds
    Australian grain growers have backed the Morrison government in taking China to the World Trade Organisation over its tariff on barley after Beijing ramped up its trade strikes on billions of dollars worth of exports.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/call-in-the-umpire-barley-growers-back-australia-in-taking-barley-dispute-with-china-to-the-wto-20201129-p56itu.html
    The editorial in the SMH says that Australia in recent years has been steadily pushing back against the bully tactics and threats of the government of China. In doing so, it has suffered a predictable backlash, and it believes Morrison should coax Britain into the fray.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/morrison-should-coax-britain-into-fray-with-china-20201129-p56ixm.html
    According to Emma Koehn, Victoria could use its unique position as a global hub for disease-fighting research, testing and manufacturing to help revive its economic fortunes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/huge-opportunities-disease-busting-hub-could-fuel-economic-rebound-20201129-p56its.html
    David Penberthy writes that Anthony Fauci has applauded Australia’s use of lockdowns to combat the coronavirus and ­lamented the fact his home country failed to take the same ­approach, fearing the worst is yet to come in the United States.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-australia-live-news-jobkeeper-figures-reveal-promising-signs-of-economic-recovery/news-story/f1fec5fce770d929c84a3c7596f1f791?keyevent=4.55am
    Latika Bourke writes that ex-Huawei board member, Alexander Downer, has savaged David Cameron and George Osborne’s “golden era” China policy, saying it was “superficial”, unfit for a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and left Britain’s friends and allies unimpressed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/alexander-downer-savages-britain-s-policy-on-china-20201129-p56itc.html
    As Australia’s eSafety Commissioner, Julie Inman Grant says, “I have never been more fearful for the protection of our children on the internet than I am right now as governments and industry take disparate approaches to online safety”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-ve-never-been-more-fearful-for-our-children-20201124-p56he3.html
    Angus Campbell is working through a list of dozens of senior officers who led special forces soldiers at the centre of war crimes allegations to determine which commanders should be held accountable and how they will be punished, reports Ben Packham.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/exsas-leaders-face-scrutiny-by-defence-chief-angus-campbell/news-story/b701fa2789f6c8d67e2fb9e626af98d8
    The tender process for the Australian Army’s new fleet of combat reconnaissance vehicles totalling nearly $4.3 billion was only “partly effective”, a new Auditor-General report has found. Defence procurement continue to play blinders!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7032406/defences-43b-tender-process-partly-effective-audit-finds/?cs=14350
    In quite a reasonable contribution, Amanda Vanstone writes about political leadership.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/when-it-comes-to-leadership-credit-is-long-overdue-20201129-p56iup.html
    The NSW education minister declares that the reading wars are over – and phonics has won.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-reading-wars-are-over-and-phonics-has-won-20201127-p56ioj.html
    The aged care sector requires an additional $7 billion per year in federal funding – a 35 per cent increase – if it is to be fixed, a new Grattan Institute report argues.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7032829/aged-care-sector-needs-7-billion-more-each-year-report/?cs=14350
    Coronial records have found that most young Australians aged 10 to 24 who die by suicide are either diagnosed with or suffer a likely mental health disorder – but more than two-thirds are not in contact with mental health services at the time of their deaths, explains John Elder.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2020/11/30/most-young-suicides-mentally-ill/
    The Victorian government will launch an advertising campaign this week to encourage thousands of workers to spend the summer months labouring on farms in the hope it will stop tonnes of fresh food from going to waste.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-targets-migrants-students-and-grey-nomads-for-farm-jobs-20201129-p56iwk.html
    The epidemiologist who led no-lockdown strategy appears to have been sidelined by the Swedish government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/signs-sweden-has-lost-faith-with-covid-expert-anders-tegnell-as-deaths-rise-20201129-p56iu2.html
    Asked repeatedly whether he would co-operate with an investigation into branch stacking in the Liberal Party, Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar said it was a matter for the party.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/michael-sukkar-tight-lipped-on-support-for-branch-stacking-investigation-20201129-p56ivg.html
    Alexandra Smith reports that money laundering by criminals in NSW drove a $305 million increase in poker machine profits in just five months.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/criminals-target-poker-machines-in-nsw-amid-pandemic-20201129-p56iw0.html
    Academic John Hawkins writes that one obstacle remains for the US to ‘lead the world’ again – Mitch McConnell’s Senate.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7032793/one-obstacle-remains-for-the-us-to-lead-the-world-again/?cs=14258
    The Washington Post examines the fantasy and failure inside Trump’s 20-day quest to overturn the US election. A long and entertaining read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fantasy-and-failure-inside-trump-s-20-day-quest-to-overturn-the-us-election-20201129-p56iyt.html
    The president-elect has brought in a mix of experience and diversity – but more telling is who Biden hasn’t appointed, writes Daniel Strauss.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/29/joe-biden-transition-left-centrists-democrats
    Washington: In his first television interview since the November 3 election, the idiot suggested yesterday that he will never accept his loss to Joe Biden and continued to fling baseless accusations of election fraud.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/joe-biden-did-not-get-80-million-votes-trump-claims-in-first-post-election-interview-20201130-p56iyz.html
    A day after Pennsylvania’s highest court had thrown out a lower court’s order preventing the state from certifying results from the 3 November US elections, Donald Trump blasted the judges’ decision. Suck it up, princess!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/29/trump-election-fraud-lawsuit-defeats
    Trump is going to La La Land, declares John Lord.
    https://theaimn.com/trump-is-going-to-la-la-land/

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Jim Pavlidis


    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre




    Mark Knight


    John Spooner

    From the US



  32. The Washington Post examines the fantasy and failure inside Trump’s 20-day quest to overturn the US election. A long and entertaining read.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fantasy-and-failure-inside-trump-s-20-day-quest-to-overturn-the-us-election-20201129-p56iyt.html

    I read this last night and it’s actually horrifying to comprehend the extent to which Trump left no stone unturned in his quest to steal the election away from Joe Biden.

    And now he is trying to say that Joe Biden didn’t get the 80 million votes he won with (but I bet Trump believes every vote HE got was legit)!?!

    I have restrained myself from saying this for a very long time but, the sooner he is dead the better for the world.

  33. Good morning and thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.
    Newcastle currently 20℃ – projected top of 23℃
    Wonderful cool morning after yesterdays heat – back to 34℃ tomorrow.

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