Groom by-election live

Projected LNP swing Projected 2PP LNP win probability

9.25pm. All pre-poll voting centres as well as election day booths are now in on both primary and two-party, which I presume is all we’re getting this evening. Labor has a 2.8% swing on election day votes, a 4.0% on pre-polls and 3.1% overall.

8.27pm. The South Toowoomba and West Toowoomba pre-poll centres have reported primary votes, and while the former has swung pretty heavily to Labor, the latter was slightly stronger for the LNP than the election day result.

7.43pm. Apart from one straggler on the two-party vote, all election day results are in now. There were 42,483 votes cast at election day booths, compared with 53,943 at the 2019 election.

7.09pm. My coverage is petering out because the booths coming in are merely confirming what was already known. There won’t really be anything worth commenting in until the pre-poll voting centres report, which presumably won’t be for a few hours.

6.51pm. Very quick count with only four candidates: nearly half the booths in on the primary vote already. Swing looks like about 3%, unless there’s a different dynamic on pre-polls, which the LNP would be pretty pleased with after the 5.2% swing in their favour at the 2019 election.

6.48pm. Of the two minor parties, Sustainable Australia is handsomely outpolling the Liberal Democrats. The former have the donkey vote, but the latter have the “Liberal” confusion factor.

6.46pm. Not so sure about that Toowoomba/rural divide now: apart from the 10.2% swing to Labor in the Toowoomba booth of Harristown West, the swings to Labor in Toowoomba booths are modest.

6.44pm. The two-party swing to Labor is settling in at around 4%, and the gap between the reported two-party result and my projection (which makes use of booth results that have only reported the primary vote so far) is narrowing.

6.37pm. Could be seeing a pattern here of a swing to Labor in Toowoomba but not the rural booths.

6.35pm. Some better results for Labor coming through on two-candidate preferred, including a double-digit swing in the Toowoomba booth of Harristown West. Now projecting a 4.6% two-party swing to Labor.

6.31pm. And let it be noted that it’s already got the LNP win probability at 100%.

6.30pm. Three election day booths now in on two-party preferred, which means by two-party projection is no longer going off estimated preference flows. I’m projecting essentially no two-party swing: there’s a slight two-party swing to the LNP just off the two-candidate preferred count, but that doesn’t make use of booths where there are primary votes in but not yet a TCP count.

6.28pm. Five election day booths now in on the primary vote and a small pre-poll booth in as well, the latter with two-party in as well. It actually records a small two-party swing to Labor, which could suggest my preference estimates are a little too favourable to the LNP, although we’re only talking 103 votes here.

6.24pm. The display error is now corrected, although it may take a hard refresh to get it working. Four booths now in on the primary and it’s still looking like a good result for the LNP, with a double-digit swing on the primary vote.

6.21pm. The display above is stuck on 50% for the win probability, which I’ll look into — the results page has it at 87%.

6.19pm. We have 126 formal votes in from Bowenville, and both parties are up on the primary vote with a much smaller field of candidates, though the LNP particularly so, resulting in the projection of a small two-party swing to the LNP. Until we get a non-trivial two-party count, this assumes the LNP is receiving 75% of Liberal Democrats preferences and Sustainable Australia are going 50-50, based on a rough approximation of their historical form.

6pm. Polls have closed. Note that my results display shows daylight savings time, i.e. New South Wales and Victoria rather than Queensland, which is the AEC’s doing rather than mine. Expect to see results from small rural booths start to come in in about 20 minutes or so.

5.50pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Groom by-election. The display featured above is a small sample of what will be available tonight on this site’s results facility. The top half of the display features progress vote totals and booth-matched swings, including a New York Times-style “election needle” recording a probability estimate of the final result. This is based on a projection of two-party preferred that combines estimates of the final primary vote shares and preference flows. The latter is the subject of its own table, which will show how minor party and independent preferences are flowing based on the latest two-party count, and how this compares with the corresponding results from the 2019 election. The bottom half features the clearest and neatest display of the booth results you will find, in the form of a table in which you can toggle between vote totals, percentages and swings. Also featured are separate sub-totals for ordinary election day polling booths and pre-poll voting centres, with swings to match — an increasingly important distinction on election night, when the latter come in quite a bit later than the former and don’t always behave the same way.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 comments on “Groom by-election live”

  1. Labor will demand a recount! We won Toowoomba but there has been a lot of vote rigging. A lot. Bad . Very bad.

    This will end up in the courts.

    Rudy! Rudy!!

  2. A very safe LNP seat with a 3.1% swing to Labor?…. Not bad.

    Keep swinging to Labor, Qld!… By the time the real federal election is on, the swing may be enough to defeat the LNP. If the LNP is defeated, the Coalition is defeated nationally….
    As simple as that.

  3. That level of swing against a government in a by-election doesn’t auger much I would have thought. Perhaps it provides supporting evidence for the stability in the TPP in recent polls.

  4. A 3%-ish swing across Qld would get Labor one seat: Longman. Maybe Leichhardt, if you throw in an extra % because Warren Entsch is retiring. Qld doesn’t have many marginal LNP seats.

  5. “Qld doesn’t have many marginal LNP seats.”…

    That’s true, but on the other hand very few states swing like Qld when Qld wants to swing….

  6. I think you should prove any vote rigging before commenting. It is not usual in the Darling Downs area. These elections are won by lots of hard work by lots of LNP supporters. This is not
    America. Postal votes are not rigged. There are scrutineers in every booth.

  7. Going out on a limb, I’d suggest that this byelection is an irrelevance as providing an indicator of what is likely to transpire in Queensland at the next federal election.

  8. From Kevin Bonham

    Sunday: Around 5000 postals were added sometime last night and these split only 68-32 to the LNP, compared with 77-23 in 2019. As a result the swing to Labor has come up to 4%, which is squarely in the “nothing to see here” range. It will probably change little on further counting.

  9. Given the usual by-election swing against sitting governments, I’m not sure much of anything can be read into this result. Seems like business as usual in Nat heartland.

  10. I am a complete amateur so my take on this result is most probably bullshit but here goes …

    Any comparison with previous by election swings etc and whether this result is good or bad for labor / coalition is redundant in these times of covid. Governments and their leaders are being rewarded for keeping Australians” safe” and seeing their constituents through this remarkable time. We live in a time where ‘ new history” is being written around elections, polling, popularity etc and any comparison with the old history of the past is useless. Just look at the popularity figures for our state and federal leaders. Through the roof. All due to their actual/ perceived success in keeping Australians safe. That is the main game in town atm.

    Saying that securing a 4% swing in one of the most secure coalition seats in the country stamped with “ never to be held by labor” , where the demographic is pure LNP rural/ religious and with the PM riding high in the ratings is not too shabby in this brave new world.

    Anyway, just the ramblings of a amateur.

  11. There has been a 9.14% increase in the Labor party primary vote since last federal election in Groom. The LNP has gone up by 5.5%. While I will acknowledge that the Greens and One Nation not contesting a contributing factors. Labor can take a bit of heart that there primary vote has improved if they want to win a second senate seat in Queensland at the next election.

    A repeat of primary vote of 26% from the last federal election for Labor in Queensland will spell doom for Senator Anthony Chisholm. It will obviously spell doom for federal Labor chances as well of winning government.

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