Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.

Two polls suggest the federal government’s COVID-19 dividend may be starting to wear a bit thin.

Today is the day of the federal by-election for the Queensland seat of Groom, which you can offer your thoughts on on this post in the apparently unlikely event that you have something specifically to say about it through the course of the day. This site will naturally be all over the count this evening, complete with a live results facility that is fully battle-tested so far as federal elections are concerned.

Other news of note:

• Roy Morgan had a result this week from the federal voting intention series it conducts regularly but publishes erratically. This one credited the Coalition with a slender two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 34%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%. State breakdowns had the Coalition leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, the reverse in Victoria, the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, the Coalition leading 51-49 in Western Australia, and Labor leading 52.5-47.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the two previous weekends from a sample of 2824.

• The Financial Review reports on JWS Research polling that shows 20% believe states should close borders to other states that have any active COVID-19 cases, “almost 60%” believe the same should happen if there are 25 active cases, and 75% say the same for 100 active cases. The report further relates that 60% of respondents rated the federal government’s handling of the virus positively, down six points from July, and that 87% of Western Australians, 82% of South Australians and 57% of Victorians (up seven since July) did likewise for their state goverments, with due caution for the small size of the relevant sub-samples. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1035 from last Friday to Sunday.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Victorial Liberal Senate preselection contenders for the next election: Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and the party’s former state director (including at the time of its disastrous 2018 campaign); Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne lawyer; Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella; and Jess Wilson, policy director at the Business Council of Australia. This is likely to amount to a race for the second position on the ticket, with Sarah Henderson to be promoted to first and Scott Ryan not seeking another term. There is contention in the state branch over president Robert Clark’s reluctance to have preselections determined through party plebiscites, with critics accusing him of using COVID-19 to maintain control by the central administration, as it did before the last election. According to the report, “a statewide ballot would favour Mr Frost, while an administrative committee vote would favour those loyal to Mr Clark’s forces“.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

686 comments on “Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.”

Comments Page 14 of 14
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  3. ItzaDream:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:23 pm

    [‘Ha – one of the great advantages of using regional (spinal) – early detection of cerebral irritation.’]

    Really cobber, please stop posting medicalese lest I’ll have to refer to Taber’s.

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #645 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:12 pm

    With NSW parliament safely on its Xmas break, the SMH dips its toe into this ‘journalism’ malarkey…

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/labor-demands-answers-over-concerning-land-deal-involving-deputy-premier-john-barilaro-20201127-p56ing.html#comments

    And there’s a piece somewhere I cant find now where they wheel out Bruce Baird to ratify that pork barrelling is hunky dory, get over it.

  6. rhwombat @ #647 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:17 pm

    ItzaDream @ #3773 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 6:32 pm

    It’s not so much what’s in the water that matters, it is how much water you drink (or get in other ways, like intravenously). That piece is pretty flakey Barney, except for introducing the concept of (buzzword alert) – the semipermeable membrane – which all cell membranes are, and across which ions will move under various regulators, not least the trend to equilibrate the tonicity (the concentration of stuff) of the solutions either side.

    There are three great main water compartments in the body: the blood (vascular system), outside the blood (extravascular system) made of off outside the cells (extracellular) and inside the cells (intracellular).

    It’s not the stomach that matters, it is the kidneys. The kidneys are the great regulators of what’s going on – processing the fluids and minerals and everything else of the vascular system and filtering and reabsorbing to achieve the desirable concentrations (tonicity), while the semipermeable membranes of cell walls do what they do – selectively leak for more concentrated to less -in concert with the real cruncher: cell wall pumps, which work against equilibrium, set up ionic differences, which generate ionic potentials, which makes cells fire off impulses, contract, and generally keep the show on the road.

    Back to water intoxication, which was where this started, erroneous fingers pointing at ‘pure water’, and it can be read about here.

    Correspondence about words and their intent in the above will not be entered into and besides, this place looks like Cyclone Tracy just went through, although we do now have power back on.

    Beautifully summarised, Itza. My old man (AKA Smiling Death) couldn’t have put it better. At least he finished reading the Hobbit aloud to my brother and me before starting on Bob Schreir’s tome.

    Had to look that one up wombat … was dad a nephrologist?

  8. ItzaDream @ #3834 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:37 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #645 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:12 pm

    With NSW parliament safely on its Xmas break, the SMH dips its toe into this ‘journalism’ malarkey…

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/labor-demands-answers-over-concerning-land-deal-involving-deputy-premier-john-barilaro-20201127-p56ing.html#comments

    And there’s a piece somewhere I cant find now where they wheel out Bruce Baird to ratify that pork barrelling is hunky dory, get over it.

    Like father, like son. His daughter is less compromised.

  9. Mavis @ #653 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:33 pm

    ItzaDream:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:23 pm

    [‘Ha – one of the great advantages of using regional (spinal) – early detection of cerebral irritation.’]

    Really cobber, please stop posting medicalese lest I’ll have to refer to Taber’s.

    I was talking to OC who had made a specific reference that few would have captured.

  12. KayJay @ #655 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:38 pm

    William Bowe @ #650 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:25 pm

    Yes, using C+

    There’s your problem.

    AR has modified C+
    Firefox is now C+ 0.8.12 and is available by googling PB comments plugin – this works with Both Windows and Android. Editing now seems to work jest fine.

    I suspect (but don’t know for sure) that the Chrome version has been updated but is not yet available.

    Thanks kindly. I’ll revisit my setup. Soon(ish).

  13. William Bowe @ #657 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:40 pm

    Editing now seems to work jest fine.

    I see what you did there.

    “Jest fine” is my reference to “Pogo”. Firefox with C+ (as modified a few hours ago) working very well with windows and Android on my Desktop, Laptop, Android mini tablet and Android phone.

    Chrome still to come as stated.

    Goodnight all. Still over 30℃ in Newcastle.

  14. ItzaDream @ #3836 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:40 pm

    rhwombat @ #647 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:17 pm

    ItzaDream @ #3773 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 6:32 pm

    It’s not so much what’s in the water that matters, it is how much water you drink (or get in other ways, like intravenously). That piece is pretty flakey Barney, except for introducing the concept of (buzzword alert) – the semipermeable membrane – which all cell membranes are, and across which ions will move under various regulators, not least the trend to equilibrate the tonicity (the concentration of stuff) of the solutions either side.

    There are three great main water compartments in the body: the blood (vascular system), outside the blood (extravascular system) made of off outside the cells (extracellular) and inside the cells (intracellular).

    It’s not the stomach that matters, it is the kidneys. The kidneys are the great regulators of what’s going on – processing the fluids and minerals and everything else of the vascular system and filtering and reabsorbing to achieve the desirable concentrations (tonicity), while the semipermeable membranes of cell walls do what they do – selectively leak for more concentrated to less -in concert with the real cruncher: cell wall pumps, which work against equilibrium, set up ionic differences, which generate ionic potentials, which makes cells fire off impulses, contract, and generally keep the show on the road.

    Back to water intoxication, which was where this started, erroneous fingers pointing at ‘pure water’, and it can be read about here.

    Correspondence about words and their intent in the above will not be entered into and besides, this place looks like Cyclone Tracy just went through, although we do now have power back on.

    Beautifully summarised, Itza. My old man (AKA Smiling Death) couldn’t have put it better. At least he finished reading the Hobbit aloud to my brother and me before starting on Bob Schreir’s tome.

    Had to look that one up wombat … was dad a nephrologist?

    You could say that. He set up and ran the first transplant in Oz – 21 Feb 1965. I grew up thinking dialysis was normal. Probably explains a lot about me.

  15. ItzaDream:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:42 pm

    [‘I was talking to OC who had made a specific reference that few would have captured.’]

    Please stop being pompous, presumptuous; you’d be surprised about the broad knowledge of some on this site.

  16. KayJay @ #3843 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:49 pm

    William Bowe @ #657 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 8:40 pm

    Editing now seems to work jest fine.

    I see what you did there.

    “Jest fine” is my reference to “Pogo”. Firefox with C+ (as modified a few hours ago) working very well with windows and Android on my Desktop, Laptop, Android mini tablet and Android phone.

    Chrome still to come as stated.

    Goodnight all. Still over 30℃ in Newcastle.

    Ah. The great Walt Kelly. “We have met the enemy – and he is us”

  20. You’ve got to wonder whether Scott Morrison has become disdainful of Newspoll yet. Believing in his ‘miracle’ powers to bamboozle the electorate when necessary.

  24. America. Ever inventive:


    Santa Claus tries to console a 3-year-old from behind a plexiglass divider at a mall in Willow Grove, Pa., this month.

    Santa Claus is coming to town with a few extra precautions this year.

    Old Saint Nick will pose for photos from inside an acrylic snow globe in Richmond. He’ll be barricaded behind a eight-foot picture frame in Lakewood, Colo. And in Gruene, Tex., Cowboy Kringle, who wears red leather chaps and a cowboy hat, will keep socially distant by asking visitors to sit on a saddle positioned six feet away.

    This year’s holiday photos will have a decidedly pandemic feel: No more sitting on Kriss Kringle’s lap or whispering in his ear. Instead, venues are increasingly requiring reservations, masks and temperature checks. Santa is hosting drive-through events, attaching face shields to his hat and trading in his white cloth gloves for disposable ones to protect himself — and others — as coronavirus cases skyrocket to new highs around the country.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to-recovery/2020/11/25/mall-santa-photos-coronavirus/

  27. Well, well, well. Forget the Hispanics and the African Americans, it woz Kamala Harris wot did it! And others from the general neighbourhood:

    When Long Tran, a liberal organizer of Vietnamese descent, hosted a meet-and-greet for Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff in early 2017, he was hoping in part to engage more Asian Americans like himself in politics.

    Not a single other Asian person showed up to his event.

    Nearly four years later, that has dramatically changed. Georgia’s hand recount and vote certification confirmed that Asian American and Pacific Islander voters — who make up the fastest-growing demographic in Georgia — helped swing the state for the Democrats for the first time since 1992.

    While AAPI voters comprise only about 4 percent of Georgia’s population, that amounts to roughly 238,000 eligible voters, more than enough to determine races in the narrowly divided state. Georgia saw a 91 percent increase in AAPI voter turnout over 2016, according to an analysis by the Democratic firm Target­Smart, and exit polls showed Asian American voters preferred Joe Biden to President Trump by 2 to 1.

    Strong turnout among Latino and Black voters also contributed to Biden’s win, in Georgia and across the country. But the near-doubling of turnout among Asian American voters — who historically have had some of the lowest turnout nationally — suggests a far-reaching change that could resonate for decades.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/asian-americans-georgia-senate/2020/11/28/28521068-2ad2-11eb-9b14-ad872157ebc9_story.html

  28. RHW
    Speaking of smiling death. I was speaking to Pierre Chapuis last week. He spontaneously said that SD made the place academically. We must exchange emails again soon.
    The book comes along. I am at the stage where Ronald Ryan was arrested in Tommy’s shop

  29. Oakeshott Country @ #677 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 9:37 pm

    RHW
    Speaking of smiling death. I was speaking to Pierre Chapuis last week. He spontaneously said that SD made the place academically. We must exchange emails again soon.
    The book comes along. I am at the stage where Ronald Ryan was arrested in Tommy’s shop

    RGH was a pretty rich tapestry for Oz social history. A Bayeux of the Labor dream. It echos still.

  32. rhwombat:

    I prefer water you can chew.

    Looxury. I grew up in Adelaide.

    Adelaide water is the Elixir of life – my parents on a hippie trail through Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in the 1960s were both:
    – the only people from Adelaide, and
    – the only people not to get sick
    Coincidence – I think not!

  33. Sorry Mavis, I didn’t mean to be pretentious and pompous when I excluded you (having been finger wagged repeatedly by you about using medical language) from replying to OC’s specific (and I thought directly to me; we know of each other’s backgrounds) reference to water absorption during trans-urethral resection of the prostate ,when the bladder is kept distended so the operative field is visible, with a hyposmolar concentration of water and non-haemolytic glycine, and water is variably absorbed into the cut venous sinuses at a rate dependent of the height of the irrigant, the extent of the vascular exposure, and the time of resection, and my alluding to the cerebral oedema which can follow from the induced hyponatraemia whose earliest manifestation is restlessness and patient agitation (which can’t be detected if the patient is having a general anaesthetic but can be if the procedure is being done under a regional block) which are warnings to think about cutting short the surgery, give large urgent doses of a diuretic, and watch out for fitting.

  36. Spray @ #211 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:32 pm

    Cud (or anyone),
    Is there a reason why we don’t seem to see any false positives in the reported numbers any more? Given the fact that testing numbers have been pretty good, you’d expect to see the odd anomaly rather than the endless run of zeros in NSW, Vic and elsewhere. At least that was the case back in June / July.

    Any change in the way the tests are conducted or analysed?

    Dont know. But we are learning about false negatives in Adelaide atm after this chap who skipped self quarantine and visited half a dozen busy places across the city after getting a false negative test. The media are starting to sniff rats with the demonisation of these people doing the ‘wrong’ things. It now appears this man thought he was doing the right thing – as predicted by many a couple of days ago when this news broke. No mention yet that the indiscretion took place on the first day of the lockdown early mark. But they are getting there. They are even questioning the continual use of the Emergency Act in decision making and leading pressers (eg the Police Commissioner) for Covid.

    The wheels of the MSM move slowly when it comes to using independent thought. The issues have been discussed around barbeques, in fringe media publications and on PB for a week.

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