Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.

Two polls suggest the federal government’s COVID-19 dividend may be starting to wear a bit thin.

Today is the day of the federal by-election for the Queensland seat of Groom, which you can offer your thoughts on on this post in the apparently unlikely event that you have something specifically to say about it through the course of the day. This site will naturally be all over the count this evening, complete with a live results facility that is fully battle-tested so far as federal elections are concerned.

Other news of note:

• Roy Morgan had a result this week from the federal voting intention series it conducts regularly but publishes erratically. This one credited the Coalition with a slender two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 34%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%. State breakdowns had the Coalition leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, the reverse in Victoria, the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, the Coalition leading 51-49 in Western Australia, and Labor leading 52.5-47.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the two previous weekends from a sample of 2824.

• The Financial Review reports on JWS Research polling that shows 20% believe states should close borders to other states that have any active COVID-19 cases, “almost 60%” believe the same should happen if there are 25 active cases, and 75% say the same for 100 active cases. The report further relates that 60% of respondents rated the federal government’s handling of the virus positively, down six points from July, and that 87% of Western Australians, 82% of South Australians and 57% of Victorians (up seven since July) did likewise for their state goverments, with due caution for the small size of the relevant sub-samples. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1035 from last Friday to Sunday.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Victorial Liberal Senate preselection contenders for the next election: Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and the party’s former state director (including at the time of its disastrous 2018 campaign); Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne lawyer; Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella; and Jess Wilson, policy director at the Business Council of Australia. This is likely to amount to a race for the second position on the ticket, with Sarah Henderson to be promoted to first and Scott Ryan not seeking another term. There is contention in the state branch over president Robert Clark’s reluctance to have preselections determined through party plebiscites, with critics accusing him of using COVID-19 to maintain control by the central administration, as it did before the last election. According to the report, “a statewide ballot would favour Mr Frost, while an administrative committee vote would favour those loyal to Mr Clark’s forces“.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

686 comments on “Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.”

Comments Page 5 of 14
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  1. P1 can argue with the blogosphere until the cows come home about carbon pricing. Voters have spoken to that several times. Instead of citing incantations, they should listen to voters, who do decide these things.

  2. I wonder what the best time of the day to log in to pollbludger when there is not the usual suspects droning on about ALP-Greens. Wouldn’t mind a feature where their nauseous posts did not display at all. I am sure I have seen the same 850 posts over and over.

  4. P1

    I’m not denying for a second that Labor MPs occasionally attack the Greens. Your claim was that this was an increasing preoccupation, rather than part of the normal hurly burly (Labor attacks the Nats; Labor attacks the LNP in its various manifestations; Labor attacks independents – and is attacked in return. To remind you: it was the use of the word ‘increasing’ that I challenged).

    And I was also correct to say that guytaur had provided ‘crickets’ in support of his various allegations.

    As I said, if anything, Labor is increasingly ignoring the Greens.

  6. hillbilly

    I’ve been pondering that too.
    Maybe William could declare an unhappy-hour where all the pointless Labor-Green bickering can be confined.

  8. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    lizzie @ #199 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:53 pm

    But Greens are on a crash course to be another liberal member coalition.

  9. Non @ #198 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:53 pm

    You are making a demand-side argument. Correct insofar as that goes. Where will demand head? Downwards….no question whatsoever. At last you’ve stopped construing this as a supply-side issue, which it most clearly isn’t.

    Well, this is just plain wrong. Chinese demand is going up, not down. Again, you conveniently seem to ignore this point.

    In any case, Supply side policies would work, as I (and others) have pointed out before. Either separately, or – even better – in conjunction with demand side policies.

    Your problem is that you simply don’t want either supply side action or demand side action.

    You don’t want any action.

  11. Cud (or anyone),
    Is there a reason why we don’t seem to see any false positives in the reported numbers any more? Given the fact that testing numbers have been pretty good, you’d expect to see the odd anomaly rather than the endless run of zeros in NSW, Vic and elsewhere. At least that was the case back in June / July.

    Any change in the way the tests are conducted or analysed?

  14. P1 can argue with the blogosphere until the cows come home about carbon pricing. Voters have spoken to that several times.

    That’s silly. A carbon price is correct and necessary. It doesn’t matter if it’s popular. Voters can’t dismiss reality.

    If voters wanted to do covid herd-immunity US/Sweden style, would that mean we actually should? There are reasons why basically nobody has a direct democracy. The difference between what’s popular and what’s smart/right/needed is one of them.

  17. Yes, demand is the issue for coal, as for any commodity. Coal is not useful in itself. Thermal coal is really only useful as a fuel. The substitution of renewably-powered for fossil-powered electricity is driving down prices of electricity and, significantly, network and distribution cost. This is driving down demand for coal and in turn driving down prices that make coal extraction and shipping loss-making activities. They will cease as prices fall. This is an inexorable process, determined by the market-clearing price of electricity.

  18. Non @ #217 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 5:13 pm

    Yes, demand is the issue for coal, as for any commodity. Coal is not useful in itself. Thermal coal is really only useful as a fuel. The substitution of renewably-powered for fossil-powered electricity is driving down prices of electricity and, significantly, network and distribution cost. This is driving down demand for coal and in turn driving down prices that make coal extraction and shipping loss-making activities. They will cease as prices fall. This is an inexorable process, determined by the market-clearing price of electricity.

    Ummm. Did you even read the article I posted?

    Apparently not.

  19. Who cares what Rex Douglas, Player One, Firefox, Quoll, clem attlee, or any other supporter of The Greens/Hater of Labor, thinks!?! I don’t.

  22. Bandt really needs to get the Greens PV moving in the polls in 2021.

    Given the pathetic state of the Lib and Lab parties, there’s really no reason why it shouldn’t be in the high teens this time next year.

    If Bandt can’t do that then they should parachute in someone who can before the 2022 election.

  25. “ You mean the 60% -80% of voters who very consistently say they want action?”

    Half of which are flat out liars. They want their franking credits, tax cuts and European SUVs more.

    No. It’s the 10% of the remaining folk – the ones that live in the outer rim of our cities and regional areas that have been swept up in the climate change as a feature of ‘Cultcha wars’ that Labor needs to listen to, not lecture and harangue, but gently persuade. They are the folk that determine the outcome of elections. Labor isn’t a religious sect – its a political party dedicated to achieving reform via democratic means. Which means majority government.

  26. Holdenhilbilly, upthread:

    “I wonder what the best time of the day to log in to pollbludger when there is not the usual suspects droning on about ALP-Greens. Wouldn’t mind a feature where their nauseous posts did not display at all. I am sure I have seen the same 850 posts over and over.”

    Damn straight. If the 23 posts on this page are any guide, I don’t really feel the need to trawl through the previous 200 on the off-chance of there being something interesting.

    (There’s a Groom thread, though.)

  29. Spray

    I’ve wondered that too. Best guess is that they are retesting quickly enough to resolve false positives before they get reported.

  32. When Victoria was gripped by a second wave of Covid-19, the acute failures of the public health response soon became clear. As the months stretched on, though, other issues came into focus – from insecure work to the state’s emaciated aged-care system. These systemic weaknesses deepened the crisis.

    Never again, says Premier Daniel Andrews.

    As Victoria emerges from the catastrophe, during which more than 800 people died, its leaders have signalled they will not wait for the federal government to re-engage with its responsibilities in aged care and industrial relations. The declaration is short and sharp – a combination of incentive and wedge politics – but born of hard-won understanding.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/11/28/andrews-budget-wedges-morrison-aged-care/160648200010773?cb=1606545136

    Andrews would disassemble the empty suit PM in a head to head contest, I’ve absolutely no doubt.

  33. I suspect the expert committee is now back to its job in June and reviewing every positive result to determine veracity. If high risk the usual precautions are started before confirmation

  35. Fortescue is China Inc’s six-bagger

    Chinese state-owned enterprise Hunan Valin has done brilliantly out of its 11-year investment in Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group.

    The steelmaker, which is also a customer of Fortescue, bought into the Aussie iron ore miner back in February 2009, spending $1.2 billion for a 16.5 per cent stake that soon after grew to 17.33 per cent.

    Over 11 years, Hunan has raised about $1.7 billion by gently selling down, on top of which it has received $1.2 billion in dividends.

    Hunan has received about $7.9 billion of value for a $1.2 billion investment.

    All of which goes to show that like the broader iron ore trade, this is one Australian relationship that China won’t want to end any time soon

    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/fortescue-is-china-incs-six-bagger-20201126-p56ibx

  36. P1…I don’t read the items you link or post….as a general rule. Likewise, I’m sure you ignore the content and logic of my posts, and you persistently misconstrue nearly everything in any case.

  37. Non @ #236 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 5:51 pm

    P1…I don’t read the items you link or post….as a general rule. Likewise, I’m sure you ignore the content and logic of my posts, and you persistently misconstrue nearly everything in any case.

    So you don’t read them, yet you respond.

    That explains a lot – I had wondered why your posts make so little sense.

  39. Rex Douglas @ #238 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 6:02 pm

    If Joel Fitzgibbon’s outspokenness continues, it will be seen as no longer being about climate change and energy but about changing the leader, regardless of the absence of a challenger.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/11/28/how-australias-leaders-are-preparing-climate-change/160648200010771

    Seems it’s not a question of if, but when, a challenge for leadership happens.

    2021 is going to see movement in AusPol.

    It’s getting to the ridiculous stage where it would almost be a relief to see the Gibbon take over.

    Yes, it would then be a choice between Dumb and Dumber, but at least it would be very clear to everyone where Labor actually stands 🙁

  40. Has anyone else read the obsequious, exculpatory, and frankly obscene, article in the SMH today by Alexandra Smith?

    Poor little Gladys apparently just needs a wee rest, and she won’t make any more mistakes, like telling the truth when she is caught with her pants down.

    Jordan Shanks has the SMH cesspool worked out, all right.

  42. Bird of Paradox,

    Fuck you!

    WB knows he panders to repetitive extremists and does not seem to care that much. As long as they pay their subs.

    It’s good to point it out every now and again,

    I’m wearing my Yellow Star atm.

    Cheers

    Cheers.

  46. Stephen Jones MP
    @StephenJonesMP
    · 8h
    The @smh wants subscribers to switch to its new app. I’m using it. The journalism is unchanged. The App itself has all the visual charm and functionality of a 1970’s phone book.

  48. What? Is he on 60 mins?

    Sara
    @_sara_jade_
    ·
    1m
    Part of 60mins preview…apologies. Check out the well-placed family photo hands almost around the neck of the ‘golden child’ . He favours the eldest. The fake (No wrinkles at the corner of eyes zygomatic cheek muscles not engaged ) superficial smile with the dead eyes .

  49. I almost suspect the the “exhausted” Rum Corp leader story is the SMH trolling Friendly Jordies such was its perfect illustration of what Shanks banged on about re Fairfax.

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