Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.

Two polls suggest the federal government’s COVID-19 dividend may be starting to wear a bit thin.

Today is the day of the federal by-election for the Queensland seat of Groom, which you can offer your thoughts on on this post in the apparently unlikely event that you have something specifically to say about it through the course of the day. This site will naturally be all over the count this evening, complete with a live results facility that is fully battle-tested so far as federal elections are concerned.

Other news of note:

• Roy Morgan had a result this week from the federal voting intention series it conducts regularly but publishes erratically. This one credited the Coalition with a slender two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 34%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%. State breakdowns had the Coalition leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, the reverse in Victoria, the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, the Coalition leading 51-49 in Western Australia, and Labor leading 52.5-47.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the two previous weekends from a sample of 2824.

• The Financial Review reports on JWS Research polling that shows 20% believe states should close borders to other states that have any active COVID-19 cases, “almost 60%” believe the same should happen if there are 25 active cases, and 75% say the same for 100 active cases. The report further relates that 60% of respondents rated the federal government’s handling of the virus positively, down six points from July, and that 87% of Western Australians, 82% of South Australians and 57% of Victorians (up seven since July) did likewise for their state goverments, with due caution for the small size of the relevant sub-samples. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1035 from last Friday to Sunday.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Victorial Liberal Senate preselection contenders for the next election: Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and the party’s former state director (including at the time of its disastrous 2018 campaign); Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne lawyer; Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella; and Jess Wilson, policy director at the Business Council of Australia. This is likely to amount to a race for the second position on the ticket, with Sarah Henderson to be promoted to first and Scott Ryan not seeking another term. There is contention in the state branch over president Robert Clark’s reluctance to have preselections determined through party plebiscites, with critics accusing him of using COVID-19 to maintain control by the central administration, as it did before the last election. According to the report, “a statewide ballot would favour Mr Frost, while an administrative committee vote would favour those loyal to Mr Clark’s forces“.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

686 comments on “Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.”

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  1. @ Favio 6:12pm – re: Alexandria Smith.

    See my post at 2:22pm, which I’ll cut n’ paste:

    “ This was not a week of unforced errors. This was a week when some of Bin Chicken’s corrupt little hatchlings – laid by her over many years – started to come home to roost.

    The ‘everybody does it’ excuse for pork barrelling comes after months of denials that there was pork barrelling or that she was personally involved. That’s the main point: not only is the claim outrageous it deflects from the attempted cover up. Yet that doesn’t suit 9Faix narrative.

    The other thing that doesn’t suit the 9Faix narrative is that those chicklings coming home to roost owes nothing – at all – to ‘journalism’. It certainly doesn’t suit the 9Faix narrative to give credit where it is due – to the NSW opposition leader and Labor’s leadership team in the upper house who have driven the scrutiny of the regional grants rorts since the 2019 election. Nope – a quick quote from Jodi at the end of the article is all that labor gets, and the preceding paragraphs clearly imply that David Shoebridge and the Greens have been the main players: that is a blatant lie.

    A pox on Alexandra Smith and all the other carpetbaggers at 9Faix (none of whom have as much as commented – either to scrutinise the government or to dump on their new enemies on social media – the last two corruption exposes on #bruz – Narrandera and the Marco Polo club by Friendlyjordies) .”

  2. BK

    I know it’s quite normal for pollies to stage manage public appearances and the occasiona “informal” photo. But Scotty seems even to stage manage his private life which makes me feel as if his whole life is just artificial. No depth, absence of genuine personality.

  3. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    [‘I see our self acclaimed pedophile-in-chief is in full ‘de gibbons, de gibbons’ mode today.’]

    Really, cobber, that’s a bridge way too far.

  4. Labor should resist the Morrison Government’s attempt to get the online media giants Google and Facebook to pay for local media content. Not that I have any love for either organisation, but If anything, the Australian MSM should pay the online giants to disseminate their crap. This is nothing more than an attempt by the Government to help their media mates. It is not in Labor’s interests – in fact, the sooner the MSM dies of irrelevance the better. No other country is doing it but in no other country is the largest media organisation effectively a partner in Government.

    The Government will, as per their usual form, probably try and ram it through with minimal debate in the closing days of the 2020 Parliamentary year. Labor should tell them to get stuffed.

  5. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 6:21 pm
    Daniel Andrews hasn’t needed to take a holiday. Just sayin’.
    ________________
    Doesn’t need a holiday. He is a very hands off Premier. Decisions are already made by starting assumptions.

  6. Taylormade @ #265 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 7:45 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 6:21 pm
    Daniel Andrews hasn’t needed to take a holiday. Just sayin’.
    ________________
    Doesn’t need a holiday. He is a very hands off Premier. Decisions are already made by starting assumptions.

    I know he’s hands off the corruption levers. Unlike #GuiltyGladys.

  7. I dreaded that this would be the case with a COVID-19 vaccine:

    “Two doses more than doubles the logistical challenges of administering the vaccines,” said Jeffrey Duchin, health officer for public health in Seattle and King County, Wash. “The moving parts have to align.”

    A two- or three-dose dose regimen is routine for building immunity against many illnesses, but it is unprecedented in a pandemic when the public health goal is to vaccinate 60 to 70 percent of the population within months to reach herd immunity and stop the virus’s spread.

    …It’s not unusual for a vaccine to require re-upping in order to provoke the immune system to respond more effectively. The classic schedule for vaccines that target proteins like the spike protein on the surface of this coronavirus, Moore said, is three shots — “prime, prime, boost” — with the second and third shots coming one and six months after the first injection. Each of the first two shots primes the immune system and is typically followed by a modest drop-off in antibodies. The third shot, usually at least six months after the first one, can give long-term protection by boosting the immune system’s memory cells, which by that point have matured and are ready to respond.

    It’s not yet clear whether any of the new coronavirus vaccines in the pipeline will ultimately work best with a third shot capable of boosting long-term protection.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/two-shots-covid-vaccine/2020/11/27/b852a19a-2f24-11eb-bae0-50bb17126614_story.html

  8. I can only imagine what this will do to the mindset of Anti Vaxxers, what sort of things they will attribute to it:

    The coronavirus vaccines may give headaches, fevers and other unpleasant symptoms — all good signs of the body’s immune system getting to work — but Talbot is concerned they may prevent people from returning for their second dose.

  9. Rex Douglassays:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 5:11 pm
    CJ Werleman charts the success of the state of Victoria in getting a grip on the Coronavirus – despite the efforts of the right-wing media to discredit its popular left-wing Premier Dan Andrews

    He must have been watching the Daily Dans.
    ________________
    No mention of the hotel quarantine debacle, no mention of the resignations of Mikakos, Eccles and Peake.
    A very lightweight opinion piece that does not tell the full story.

  10. Peta Credlin should write all opinion pieces about the Virus. In fact all the opinion pieces about the Victorian Government. And everything else.

  11. Taylormade

    See that bin in the corner marked “black gangs”. After the next election the Liberals will rip the label off and replace it with “hotel fiasco”.

  12. Taylowmade
    This is the headline that matters.

    South Australia and NSW record new Covid-19 cases as Victoria passes elimination benchmark

  13. My thoughts?

    After this heatwave affecting SE Australia and people crowding swimming places, often travelling from other areas, prepare for another Covid outbreak,

    Complacency has settled back in, people having close gatherings, handshaking, hugging and kissing.

    Acting like it’s all over.

    Crowding into air conditioned areas.

    Does what happened in the US Summer ring a bell?

    What could go wrong?

  14. Worst recession in over 300 years and likely to get worse – thanks mainly to Boris.

    The UK economy is suffering its worst recession in more than 300 years and failing to secure a new trade deal with the European Union will make its recovery even longer and more arduous, according to the country’s independent fiscal watchdog.

    The Office for Budget Responsibility said on Wednesday that a no-deal Brexit would reduce output by 2% next year and leave the UK economy 1.5% smaller after five years compared to a scenario where Prime Minister Boris Johnson strikes an agreement with Brussels.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/economy/brexit-rishi-sunak-uk-economy-coronavirus/index.html

  15. citizensays:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 9:07 pm

    Meanwhile….

    US ‘DOUBLE DIP’ Reccession!
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/recession-double-dip-2021-economist-fears/

    The U.S. economy is losing steam as COVID-19 cases continue to spread across the country and Congress delays passing another coronavirus relief package to help millions of American workers and small business owners weather the storm. That is raising concerns about a potential contraction in economic growth early next year, which would mark the first “double dip” recession in the U.S. since the early 1980s.

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    JPMorgan Chase’s top economist, Michael Feroli, told clients last week the recent coronavirus surge and renewed restrictions to stop the spread would drive up layoffs and shrink economic activity in the first three months of 2021 by some $50 billion. That translates into an annualized drop in gross domestic product — the total value of products and services in the U.S. — of about 1%. It also would impede an ongoing recovery from pandemic lockdowns in the spring that rebounded rapidly between July and September with businesses reopening but which now appears to be slowing.

    “If the virus weighs on activity and leads to business closures — temporary or otherwise — we think that related layoffs would show up,” Feroli said in the JPMorgan Chase report. “The resurgence of COVID-19 appears to have already weighed on [consumer] sentiment . . . and we think the virus could have increasingly negative effects.”

  16. US over 200k new covid cases today in the JHU tracker (new daily record and first time over 200k in that tracker). No doubt helped along by a lots of places not reporting figures yesterday due to Thanksgiving. Though realistically, don’t think we’ll get a good picture of how they’re tracking until late next week.

  17. South Australia and NSW record new Covid-19 cases as Victoria passes elimination benchmark

    When Victoria starts pulling its weight with overseas returnees this might be a valid comment


  18. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    South Australia and NSW record new Covid-19 cases as Victoria passes elimination benchmark

    When Victoria starts pulling its weight with overseas returnees this might be a valid comment

    Your comment wold have some merit if you were pushing for the commonwealth to take some responsibility for overseas returnees.

  19. South Australia is currently the only State with reported community spread of the Virus as they work their way through the Parafield cluster. Even there, today’s two cases are in quarantine. All reported cases in other States were overseas returnees in quarantine.

  20. Oh if only there was a Federal government that took responsibility for quarantine, as it should.

    Would we have had these issues?

    I’m thinking not.

    Even now the dodgy brothers are saying it’s not their problem.

    Yet the public are lapping up the showman spiel and thinking he can do no wrong.

    Come on down, Scottie from marketing!

  21. Steve777

    One interesting thing to come out of the recent outbreak in South Australia is that on one particular day they managed to test just over one percent of the entire population of the state.

    That gives the lie to the idea that mass testing isn’t practical.

  22. Confessions

    NSW reaching elimination will be a good thing because it will refocus attention on the quarantine system – which can still be improved.

  23. Just mentioning I placed a lot of money with NSW TAB on Joe Biden to win the election.

    At this point in time NSW TAB (now known as Tabcorp) still have not paid out.

    I liken them to the reluctant GSA led by Trump plant Emily Murphy.

    The denial is fascinating.

    Numerous phone calls inquiring as to why they are not paying out leads to stonewalling and refusal to pass call onto management.

    All of my bets with Sportsbet for a Biden win were paid out two days after the election! Two days!

    Well done Sportsbet!

    Tabcorp owes a lot of us a real explanation, as well as interest on withheld money.

    Even now they cannot state when they will pay out.

    Fudging around some future dates.

    Anyone out there with a similar experience?

  24. Well done Cud Chewer!

    Enjoy your holiday.

    When Biden went from $1.40 to $3.20 on the day of the election when Trump claimed victory I loaded up with everything I could find, fully knowing the postals would make a massive difference.

    The illiterate mugs who piled onto Trump after he wrongly claimed victory just highlighted why we are a dumb country that has Scottie from marketing as our leader.

    Best investment in my whole life.

    Thank you all you Scottie/Trump fans.

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