Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.

Two polls suggest the federal government’s COVID-19 dividend may be starting to wear a bit thin.

Today is the day of the federal by-election for the Queensland seat of Groom, which you can offer your thoughts on on this post in the apparently unlikely event that you have something specifically to say about it through the course of the day. This site will naturally be all over the count this evening, complete with a live results facility that is fully battle-tested so far as federal elections are concerned.

Other news of note:

• Roy Morgan had a result this week from the federal voting intention series it conducts regularly but publishes erratically. This one credited the Coalition with a slender two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 34%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%. State breakdowns had the Coalition leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, the reverse in Victoria, the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, the Coalition leading 51-49 in Western Australia, and Labor leading 52.5-47.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the two previous weekends from a sample of 2824.

• The Financial Review reports on JWS Research polling that shows 20% believe states should close borders to other states that have any active COVID-19 cases, “almost 60%” believe the same should happen if there are 25 active cases, and 75% say the same for 100 active cases. The report further relates that 60% of respondents rated the federal government’s handling of the virus positively, down six points from July, and that 87% of Western Australians, 82% of South Australians and 57% of Victorians (up seven since July) did likewise for their state goverments, with due caution for the small size of the relevant sub-samples. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1035 from last Friday to Sunday.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Victorial Liberal Senate preselection contenders for the next election: Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and the party’s former state director (including at the time of its disastrous 2018 campaign); Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne lawyer; Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella; and Jess Wilson, policy director at the Business Council of Australia. This is likely to amount to a race for the second position on the ticket, with Sarah Henderson to be promoted to first and Scott Ryan not seeking another term. There is contention in the state branch over president Robert Clark’s reluctance to have preselections determined through party plebiscites, with critics accusing him of using COVID-19 to maintain control by the central administration, as it did before the last election. According to the report, “a statewide ballot would favour Mr Frost, while an administrative committee vote would favour those loyal to Mr Clark’s forces“.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

686 comments on “Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.”

Comments Page 4 of 14
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  1. zoomster @ #149 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:23 pm

    …regardless, I’ve made my case. There is no evidence of an increasing level of interest, let alone attack, from Labor towards the Greens.

    It’s all in P1’s fervid imagination, fuelled by their obsession with Joel Fitzgibbon.

    Oh, FFS Zoomster. You asked for evidence. I gave you some.

    Just for once in your life admit you were mistaken.

  2. C@tmomma says Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 11:09 am

    Simon Katich @ #59 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    TPOF @ #53 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 10:28 am

    Victoria

    She truly thinks that occasionally stating she is concerned about Trumps conduct every now and then, cuts the mustard. Sheesh.

    ______________________________________

    It worked a treat getting her re-elected in Maine.

    She voted against the Affordable Care Act when it didnt matter. She voted for it when it did.
    I dont see Biden has a choice. He has to take her at her word and try to work with her – look for things she can vote for and try to barter where she is willing.

    The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. I doubt Joe Biden will put up with much malarkey from Ms Susan. If she keeps dudding him she will certainly find that Maine ‘magically’ misses out on important contracts and things like that.

    If the Democrats can’t get to 50 Senators it’s not really going to matter what Senator Collins thinks. Mitch McConnell will be the speaker and he won’t allow the legislation to come to the floor. To quote the recent Axefiles podcast, Mitch doesn’t give a shit about anything except power.

  3. In southern Canberra it got to 34deg, now dropping as a thunderstorm gives strong winds and periodical rain. A large branch fell off the big gum tree on the nature strip onto a rose bush but it seems to have survived. Probably time to report the tree to City Services again for examination.

    The tree actually provides a lot of material that I use for mulching as it is always dropping small branches.

  4. I see I made a big mistake. So a second post.

    It should have been Good Afternoon.

    Steve.

    Yes. Exactly how I see it.

    On the trigger issue. Those enemies of Shanks will do the same to him as was done to the gay Labor candidate in the 2019 election. If they get the chance.

  5. “ Pretty sure Labor’s all over it.”

    Labor IS all over it. But tumbleweeds from our cyphers in the MSM.

    That’s the most annoying bit of your repetitious shit, Mundo. You don’t get that bit.

    He doesn’t want to. Never has.

  6. Perhaps the Democrats could let Trump fulfil his dream of staying in the White House by giving him a room like this with little playmates like those shown, a toy phone, a little desk, a little bed and a mini golf course. Oh and keep the door locked with meals passed through a slot.

  7. citizensays: Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 3:42 pm

    Perhaps the Democrats could let Trump fulfil his dream of staying in the White House by giving him a room like this with little playmates like those shown, a toy phone, a little desk, a little bed and a mini golf course. Oh and keep the door locked with meals passed through a slot.

    **************************************

    Don is said to like the little desk – cause it makes his hands look bigger

  8. citizen @ #160 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:42 pm

    Perhaps the Democrats could let Trump fulfil his dream of staying in the White House by giving him a room like this with little playmates like those shown, a toy phone, a little desk, a little bed and a mini golf course. Oh and keep the door locked with meals passed through a slot.

    We knew he was renovating Mar-a-Lago. I guess we should have guessed he would go for the “White House” look. I would have thought he could afford to go full-scale, but perhaps he thinks this way makes him look taller.

  9. The History Behind the Donald Trump ‘Small Hands’ Insult

    Almost 30 years ago Trump was described as a “short-fingered vulgarian.”

    — — Marco Rubio told supporters last week that GOP presidential rival Donald Trump is “always calling me ‘little Marco.'”

    “He is taller than me, he’s like 6′ 2″, which is why I don’t understand why his hands are the size of someone who is 5’ 2″,” Rubio joked. “Have you seen his hands? And you know what they say about men with small hands — ”

    Nearly 30 years ago, Graydon Carter, the editor of Vanity Fair magazine, described Trump in Spy magazine as a “short-fingered vulgarian.”

    In an editor’s letter in “Vanity Fair” last November, Carter said that he wrote the Sky magazine comment in 1988 “just to drive him a little bit crazy.”

    And according to Carter, it still does.

    “Like so many bullies, Trump has skin of gossamer,” Carter wrote in November.

    “To this day, I receive the occasional envelope from Trump. There is always a photo of him—generally a tear sheet from a magazine. On all of them he has circled his hand in gold Sharpie in a valiant effort to highlight the length of his fingers,” Carter wrote. “I almost feel sorry for the poor fellow because, to me, the fingers still look abnormally stubby.”

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/history-donald-trump-small-hands-insult/story?id=37395515

  10. C@tmomma @ #159 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:41 pm

    “ Pretty sure Labor’s all over it.”

    Labor IS all over it. But tumbleweeds from our cyphers in the MSM.

    That’s the most annoying bit of your repetitious shit, Mundo. You don’t get that bit.

    He doesn’t want to. Never has.

    Labor needs to recruit some decent communicators and stop sending out the boring mushrooms that don’t attract eyes or clicks and act as repellents.

  11. C@tmomma @ #168 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:58 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #166 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:57 pm

    Why did Trump do that to himself?

    Why sit instead of having a lecturn-podium?

    Maybe he isn’t allowed to use them anymore now that Biden has been Ascertained? Just a thought.

    He is President until Jan 20, midday, and until then can do anything a president is allowed to do, which, in his case, includes many things that no other president has had the indecency to do.

  12. Yabba @ #170 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:02 pm

    C@tmomma @ #168 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:58 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #166 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 3:57 pm

    Why did Trump do that to himself?

    Why sit instead of having a lecturn-podium?

    Maybe he isn’t allowed to use them anymore now that Biden has been Ascertained? Just a thought.

    He is President until Jan 20, midday, and until then can do anything a president is allowed to do, which, in his case, includes many things that no other president has had the indecency to do.

    Okay, so Option B is considered. Does he do these things in an attempt to game the media, social and MSM?

  13. Andrew_Earlwoods

    Why did Trump do that to himself?

    Why sit instead of having a lecturn-podium?

    Perhaps the desk has some great historical significance, where Washington signed ‘X’ or Abe Lincoln signed ‘Y’

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    Which is a short lived, because Greens abandoned Labor.

    So same same Lib-Greens.

  15. Federal authorities arrested a former U.S. Army service member and Army National Guardsman in New Jersey on Wednesday on charges of supporting a foreign terrorist organization, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

    U.S. Attorney Dean Sovolos described Bell as a danger to the community and a flight risk during her first federal court appearance Wednesday.

    He said when the FBI arrested her, they found 136 operable handguns and rifles, as well as 15 canisters of ammunition and a short-range rocket launcher inside her two-bedroom home.

    Bell’s attorney, Rahul Sharma, said many of the firearms recovered were antiques she received from her deceased husband, who worked at an armory.


  16. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    Zerlo @ #171 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:08 pm

    Greens never stoppped attackeding Labor from day one by their demands they only care about 1 thing.

    Correct. The environment.

    If only.

    The Greens have put a lot of effort into destroying the ACF because they actually support political parties that actually have credible environmental policies.

    https://www.acf.org.au/response_to_labor_energy_policy

  17. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    It’s wrong, because Greens abandoned labor, they abandoned Environment and any chance of actually doing something.

  18. frednk @ #178 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:20 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    Zerlo @ #171 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:08 pm

    Greens never stoppped attackeding Labor from day one by their demands they only care about 1 thing.

    Correct. The environment.

    If only.

    The Greens have put a lot of effort into destroying the ACF because they actually support political parties that can actually have credible environmental policies.

    Fake newz.

  19. P1

    Increasing means just that – that there is more attention from Labor to the Greens.

    You provided the example of one MP, who has made a couple of attacks on the Greens over a month ago.

    One MP attacking the Greens – even if he was doing it day in, day out, which he clearly isn’t – is not proof of your assertion.

    It’s OK, I know you can’t prove anything, it’s just part of your Fitzgibbon association.

  20. Being a party of potential government means you have to be able to do more than recite meaningless cliches and unachievable or dubiouusly desirable objectives.

    Voters tend to say they believe that Climate Change action is important to them. However, there is no evidence that the proposed solutions propagated day after day here on PB by the usual fuckwits is actually what voters are interested in supporting.

    It’s a bit like that movie “Miss Congeality” where the Sandra Bullock character had to say she was in favour of “World Peace” because it was a basic demand of the audience and the promoters.

    Election after election where the LNP have been elected despite having no CC policies tellls you that CC support by voters is a mile wide, but an inch deep.

    Labor’s just decided to go where the votes are and that isn’t in prescriptive policies about CC.

  21. zoomster @ #181 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    P1

    Increasing means just that – that there is more attention from Labor to the Greens.

    You provided the example of one MP, who has made a couple of attacks on the Greens over a month ago.

    One MP attacking the Greens – even if he was doing it day in, day out, which he clearly isn’t – is not proof of your assertion.

    It’s OK, I know you can’t prove anything, it’s just part of your Fitzgibbon association.

    You asked for evidence, because you said you had been offered none. None at all. “Crickets”, you said.

    So I gave you one example. A fairly relevant one, I thought. If you wanted more, all you needed to do was ask for it, or else find it yourself.

    It’s easy enough to do, FFS …

    letmegooglethat.com/?q=Labor+attacks+%22Greens%22

    But instead of admitting you may have been mistaken, you took your usual route of pretending you had somehow won the point and (like so many others here) then resorting to smear and insult to try and terminate the discussion before you were called out on it.

    It seems to be a common tactic for the Labor partisans here on PB.

  22. Cud Chewersays: Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    Anyone know whether the cases today in South Australia were people already in isolation?

    ************************************************

    South Australia records two new coronavirus cases linked to Parafield cluster

    Key points:

    Two new cases of COVID-19 have been identified and linked to SA’s Parafield cluster
    The two people are contacts of previous cases
    There are now 33 cases linked to the cluster

    MORE : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-28/two-new-coronavirus-cases-in-south-australia/12931288

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    Truth hurts Rexy.

    When you side with the evils that be.

    And they are Evil – Liberals.

  24. Player One says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    One for the Gibbons….

    As you elaborate in your post, the seaborne coal trade is mobilised by demand from abroad. It is not a supply-instigated trade. You have nailed this in your post. Good on you. The penny seems to have dropped.

    Notwithstanding that, you say that “we” continue to make financial commitments to coal. This is a deceptive generalisation. In the main, financing for coal is being withdrawn. “We” do not invest in coal. A few lost commercial souls might be, but in general the industry is being orphaned, step by step.

  25. The disingenuous rationalisations of Labor partisans here sure can be comical

    Top vid result for Labor MP + Greens

    Oh shock, Labor MP Terri Butler running all the idiotic talking points the Labor partisans run daily here on ‘teh Greens’, to Kenny on Sky and repeated widely via the Tele and other Murdoch organs at the time

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6176149598001
    The Greens are ‘bad for jobs and the environment’: Labor MP
    29/07/2020|8min
    Labor environment spokesperson Terri Butler told Sky News the Greens are both “bad for jobs and bad for the environment” as internal division within the ALP over climate change heats up.

    Labor frontbencher Joel Fitzgibbon has been criticised by his leader Anthony Albanese after the shadow resources minister described the Labor Environment Action Network as a “fundamentalist” group.

    It comes as Mr Fitzgibbon had told Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell on Tuesday, he rejected an invitation to speak at a Labor Environment Action Network (LEAN) event because he believes people with “Green T-shirts” are attempting to infiltrate the party.

  26. Labor generally ignore the Greens. This is the correct strategy. A few bludgers, such as this one, feel obliged to answer the disgraceful sanctimony and sneering of Labor-phobic wannabes who masquerade here as lefties and goodies, in their two shoes and fairy wings, several imaginary flights above the rest of us.

  27. Non @ #190 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:40 pm

    Player One says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    One for the Gibbons….

    As you elaborate in your post, the seaborne coal trade is mobilised by demand from abroad. It is not a supply-instigated trade. You have nailed this in your post. Good on you. The penny seems to have dropped.

    Clearly, not for you. Did you miss the bit where it says demand is going to increase? Which directly contradicts most of your posts on the issue 🙁

    Notwithstanding that, you say that “we” continue to make financial commitments to coal. This is a deceptive generalisation. In the main, financing for coal is being withdrawn. “We” do not invest in coal. A few lost commercial souls might be, but in general the industry is being orphaned, step by step.

    Of course we do. We subsidize coal directly to the tune of billions of dollars, and indirectly by very much more. I could list the individual subsidies for you, but I am betting that you know them all a whole lot better than I do. From the inside out, possibly.

    But the fact that we burn coal but do not impose a cost for doing so is possibly the biggest subsidy of all.

    How Gibbon-like of you to conveniently forget all this 🙁

  28. Mitch McConnell will be the speaker

    He would be the Majority Leader. The presiding officer in the Senate is the Vice President. The Speaker presides in the House.

  29. Player One says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4:49 pm
    Non @ #190 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 4:40 pm

    Player One says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    One for the Gibbons….

    As you elaborate in your post, the seaborne coal trade is mobilised by demand from abroad. It is not a supply-instigated trade. You have nailed this in your post. Good on you. The penny seems to have dropped.
    Clearly, not for you. Did you miss the bit where it says demand is going to increase? Which directly contradicts most of your posts on the issue

    You are making a demand-side argument. Correct insofar as that goes. Where will demand head? Downwards….no question whatsoever. At last you’ve stopped construing this as a supply-side issue, which it most clearly isn’t.

  30. If Joe Biden can come to grips with embracing the environment and reaching out to the youth vote, why can’t old Labor partisans and Albo do it as well …?

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