Essential Research state and federal leadership polling

High and improving personal ratings for all incumbent leaders, as concern about COVID-19 eases just slightly.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison up three on approval to 66% and down two on approval to 25%, Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 39%, and Morrison holding a 53-24 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 50-25. There was also a six point increase in the government’s good rating on COVID-19 response to 67%, with the poor rating steady on 15%.

As it did a fortnight ago, the poll also asked about the mainland state premiers from the small sub-samples in the relevant states: Gladys Berejiklian was at 75% approval (up seven) and 17% disapproval (down four); Daniel Andrews at 65% approval (up four) and 28% disapproval (down five); Annastacia Palazczuk at 65% approval (steady) and 27% disapproval (up three); Mark McGowan at 87% (up nine) approval and 7% disapproval (down five); and Steven Marshall, who was not featured in last fortnight’s polling, at 60% approval and 21% disapproval. State government handling of COVID-19 was rated as good by 82% of respondents in Western Australia, 76% in South Australia, 75% in New South Wales, 71% in Queensland and 59% in Victoria.

Respondents were asked how much attention they had been paying to recent news stories, with 73% saying they had closely followed the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, 68% the US presidential election, 36% the allegations of sexual misconduct raised by the ABC’s Four Corners, and 29% Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation from the shadow cabinet. It also finds an easing in concern over COVID-19, with 27% rating themselves very concerned (down three), 44% quite concerned (down two), 23% not that concerned (up three) and 6% not at all concerned (up two). The peak of concern was in early August, when 50% were very concerned, 40% quite concerned, 7% not that concerned and 3% not at all concerned.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,207 comments on “Essential Research state and federal leadership polling”

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  1. Robert Reich

    Financial regulators subject banks to stress tests to see if they have enough capital to withstand sharp downturns.

    Now America is being subjected to a stress test to see if it has enough strength to withstand Donald Trump’s treacherous campaign to discredit the 2020 presidential election.

    Trump will lose because there’s no evidence of fraud. But the integrity of thousands of people responsible for maintaining American democracy is being tested as never before.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/22/trump-republicans-discredit-election-stress-test

  2. Doyley

    What you don’t get is that climate policy IS economic and jobs policy.

    Your framing is what is wrong. You can be for the environment and for jobs.

    Saying otherwise is Murdoch propaganda.
    I refer you to Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull’s very public statements

  3. frednk

    guytaur
    And what you don’t get is running around pretending there is a future for coal unless you screw labor helps no-one.

    And running around pretending there is one helps ?

  4. FredNK

    Pretending Coal is going to last for the coal workers lifetime is Fitzgibbon’s lie.

    It’s not. See our trading partners. They are acting on a faster timeline than Labor. The faster we transition the better.

    Objecting to transition means you want to leave workers on the scrap heap. Well done in supporting the LNP neo liberal agenda

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #1595 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 5:23 pm

    I pretty much agree with all you’ve put forward.

    No surprises there.

    There is absolutely no benefit to Federal Labor electorally in having overly directive policies about Climate Change front and centre. It creates fertile ground for negative attacks from our opponents both left and right. (one side says it’s too radical the other says it’s not enough). The public are well aware that Climate Change is happening. But, that doesn’t mean they want to vote for too much tumult and change. The caravan of Crackpots road trip scared the bejesus out of people in the regions who saw Labor too closely aligned with that group and voted accordingly.

    Enemies to the left of us. Enemies to the right of us. Danger in front of us.

    I know, let’s Retreat – Fire up the Boilers, Boys! Shovel that Coal! Engine Room – Full Steam Reverse!

    Carbon neutrality by 2050 is about as deep as it needs to be. The States are already moving that way as is business, the Banks and international developments. So, like with the Covid response, the States and the community doesn’t need grandiose schemes propagated by a self chosen inner suburban elite to get on with the job. The Libs have won the lasst three elections without any menaingful climate change policy. So Labor should be talking only about jobs and opportunity. That’s what the Electorate wants.

    “As deep as it needs to be”? Honestly, do you have any idea what would actually be required for us to achieve “Carbon neutrality by 2050”? Hint: No sector of our economy is currently on track to meet anything like this target. In fact, our current trajectory will bring us nowhere near it. We can’t even meet our paltry 2030 goals.

    The problem we have is that we have been allowed to ride on the coat tails of others, and so we have done far less than we should have. But that free ride won’t continue.

  6. Fun fact for your Sunday arvo: Bill Grayden (MP for South Perth for decades) is still alive. He’s 100, and is one of the two remaining federal MPs elected in 1949 who’s still alive (George Pearce, Capricornia 1949-61 is the other). He spent a few years in Canberra, but apart from that was in state politics almost continuously from 1947 to 1993.

    The next two MPs for South Perth were both born in 1947, despite being elected 12 years apart. John McGrath was pretty old for a newbie. He’ll be 74 when he retires next year. South Perth is full of old people, so I guess he’s a good fit.

    All that came from some googling inspired by Liza Harvey’s resignation as Lib leader, and looking at the few remaining Libs in state politics. I guess they’ll have to make Nalder or l’Estrange leader – there’s not really anyone else. David Honey gets mentioned sometimes, although I don’t understand why someone’s who’s been in parliament for two years should suddenly become leader. Kirkup is still wet behind the ears, and Dawesville might be more winnable for Labor than usual if the Queensland election is any guide (Hervey Bay, Caloundra). It’ll be a bald man from an unlosable seat.

  7. Perparim @ #1597 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 4:32 pm

    ” C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 3:45 pm
    The Iraqi people are happy that they have civilian government and the Husseins are gone. Despite how they got there. ”

    I think your right to say that most Iraqis are happy that Hussein has gone but I don’t think you’d find they are happy at all about what has happened to their country or the way it happened. Don’t forget ISIS got quite a bit of support in Iraq for some time. By the way Sadaam Hussein was a civilian. He had no military training and made himself a General. He appeared in public in either civilian or military garb depending on the propaganda needs at the time.

    And I think the Iraqi leader of the Shiites, Muqtada al Sadr, is also happy with the power sharing arrangement. He has caused no trouble since the war and I don’t recall him offering support to ISIS. Who have also been effectively eliminated from Iraq.

  8. And Campbell Newman hadn’t been in parliament at all and his highest role was as Mayor of Brisbane but he became Premier of Queensland on his first day in parliament.

  9. “ Pretending Coal is going to last for the coal workers lifetime is Fitzgibbon’s lie.”

    Because of all the thermal coal plants that have been built in India, China, Bangladesh and elsewhere throughout the 3rd world in the past decade and those still to come online this decade thermal coal has at least a 40 year lifespan. No matter how soon the developed west turn off our power plants. Whilst some of the coal needed for these power plants can be sourced domestically, much will be imported by sea borne transport.

    Conclusion: existing Australian coal mines have a viable export market until at least 2050, probably longer. For miners already in the game that will see their working lives out. Not their children though & that’s the message that should be emphasised: plan for the next 30 years for your children’s future (but your job will be ok in the meantime).

  10. guytaur

    Posters here might war with the Greens, but what’s your evidence that the Labor party does?

    …I can provide you with multiple examples of Greens MPs attacking Labor, if you’d like.

  11. Zoomster

    As repetitive as ever. According to you the Greens only ever attack Labor. They never support Labor minority government or support Labor’s Climate policy by voting for it in parliament.

  12. Zoomster

    Facts are so pesky to your Greens are evil campaign.

    Supporting Labor to stay in government and voting for major legislation is the exact opposite of attacking Labor.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1613 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 6:12 pm

    “ Pretending Coal is going to last for the coal workers lifetime is Fitzgibbon’s lie.”

    Because of all the thermal coal plants that have been built in India, China, Bangladesh and elsewhere throughout the 3rd world in the past decade and those still to come online this decade thermal coal has at least a 40 year lifespan. No matter how soon the developed west turn off our power plants. Whilst some of the coal needed for these power plants can be sourced domestically, much will be imported by sea borne transport.

    Conclusion: existing Australian coal mines have a viable export market until at least 2050, probably longer. For miners already in the game that will see their working lives out. Not their children though & that’s the message that should be emphasised: plan for the next 30 years for your children’s future (but your job will be ok in the meantime).

    It is typical gibbon logic to pretend that the future will be essentially the same as the past, and therefore we don’t actually need to do anything different.

    I think most people now realize that the underlying assumption here is utterly false. The situation is changing faster than many would have believed possible even just a few years ago, and about the only thing you can be sure of these days is that they will change even faster in future.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1613 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 6:12 pm

    “ Pretending Coal is going to last for the coal workers lifetime is Fitzgibbon’s lie.”

    Because of all the thermal coal plants that have been built in India, China, Bangladesh and elsewhere throughout the 3rd world in the past decade and those still to come online this decade thermal coal has at least a 40 year lifespan. No matter how soon the developed west turn off our power plants. Whilst some of the coal needed for these power plants can be sourced domestically, much will be imported by sea borne transport.

    Conclusion: existing Australian coal mines have a viable export market until at least 2050, probably longer. For miners already in the game that will see their working lives out. Not their children though & that’s the message that should be emphasised: plan for the next 30 years for your children’s future (but your job will be ok in the meantime).

    Straya – environment vandal, war criminal, refugee torturer – be proud

  15. “Mr Andrews said the public service would continue to work from home partly to create capacity for the private sector”
    ________________
    The Vic Public service should be the 1st ones back to work considering thier mistakes led to the lockdown in the 1st place.
    Head down, bum up and go flat chat to Christmas to fix the mess they created.

  16. Taylormade,

    I’m sure you’ll be barking at the moon for some time to come. Sad for you. But highly amusing for others.

    How long till “Whingescreams O”Brien” gets the chop?

  17. Barney

    No that’s Labor.

    The facts I have talked about are recorded in Hansard.

    The Greens voted for Labors climate policy. That was major policy. They did it offering support to keep Labor in government.

    That’s also recorded history. Not just in Federal Parliament. It continues to this day in the ACT and Labor figures in Queensland panicked thinking they might need the Greens again.

    Pesky things those facts

  18. guytaur @ #1628 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 3:45 pm

    Barney

    No that’s Labor.

    The facts I have talked about are recorded in Hansard.

    The Greens voted for Labors climate policy. That was major policy. They did it offering support to keep Labor in government.

    That’s also recorded history. Not just in Federal Parliament. It continues to this day in the ACT and Labor figures in Queensland panicked thinking they might need the Greens again.

    Pesky things those facts

    You really should try to understand what people are saying before you comment.

    Nothing you put forward is relevant to zoomster’s original comment.

  19. Barney

    It’s highly relevant

    Zoomster is running a campaign that all the Greens do is attack Labor.

    I pointed out some obvious facts proving exactly the opposite

  20. ”Conclusion: existing Australian coal mines have a viable export market until at least 2050, probably longer. For miners already in the game that will see their working lives out.”

    In 1920, bullock drays, buggies, saddles, etc were still being widely used but were on the way out in developed countries. Maybe someone saw a viable market until 1950 and beyond. Only a complete fool would have bet the future on it, or someone paid off by the animal-powered transport industry.

    We will still be using and exporting coal in 2025, 2030 and beyond, but we have to manage it down to zero by 2050, if not sooner. The Coalition appear to have no intention of doing so.

  21. guytaur

    ‘Zoomster is running a campaign that all the Greens do is attack Labor.’

    This is utterly untrue.

    I have never said that.

    Don’t tell lies.

  22. Zoomster

    Then stop posting all the Greens do is attack Labor. This is your repetitive schtick anytime someone says wouldn’t it be nice to work with the Greens.

    You come in here pretending that the Labor cannot work with the Greens.

    I quote.

    “All the Greens do is attack Labor. I can give you examples if you like”.

    Well I rebutted you with some very publicly known facts recorded in Hansard in multiple parliaments in Australia.

  23. Why do you need to manage it when in your opinion it will disappear of its own volition?

    Fair question. In business products go through life cycles – introduction, growth, maturity / cash cow and eventually decline. Different styles of managing and marketing products are appropriate for each phase. The last thing you want is to be stuck with a huge investment in a product no one wants to buy. Coal would have to be in or close to its decline phase.

    In fact asbestos is a better parallel to Coal than bullock drays. Like asbestos before it, coal will increasingly be seen as toxic. There’s asbestos in everything built before about 1980. Now very little of the stuff is used. Industry and Government managed asbestos out.

    At this stage, the fossil fuel industry seems to want to keep the game going for as long as possible. The attitude of the Federal Government seems to be a combination of: actively supporting the industry in keeping their game going; keeping out of it and assuming that the things will sort themselves out on their own; and kicking the can far enough down the road that it becomes someone else’s problem.

  24. Zoomster

    Yes you do.

    Every time anyone talks about Labor working with the Greens you a
    Ways say the Greens need to stop attacking Labor.

    You do it every time. Almost as much as a Murdoch editor.

  25. “ I think most people now realize that the underlying assumption here is utterly false. The situation is changing faster than many would have believed possible even just a few years ago, and about the only thing you can be sure of these days is that they will change even faster in future.”

    There you are. All pith hat, fly squat and safari suit, stamping your foot that the various indigenes turn. Those. Filthy. Coal. Fired. Power. Plants. Off. This. Instant. Or you’ll give them a sound thrashing, what.

    You call me a gibbon. I’ll call you a pedophile. Fuck off. I’m not going to put up with condescending put downs from a mental earthworm such as you.

    Bangladesh has just spent billions on new coal fired power stations. Fact.

    India has tens and tens of billions invested in existing CFPS. Ditto China.

    And so it goes.

    The situation may be evolving faster than you, with your pea sized brain can handle, but those fundamentals won’t change. Foreign states are not going to simply turn off billions and billions of invested infrastructure just because Greta gives them an angry face. However, they might just not replace them with other CFPS and indeed might even retire them a little bit sooner than otherwise would be the case, but we are still talking a 2050-206o timeframe.

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