Essential Research state and federal leadership polling

High and improving personal ratings for all incumbent leaders, as concern about COVID-19 eases just slightly.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison up three on approval to 66% and down two on approval to 25%, Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 39%, and Morrison holding a 53-24 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 50-25. There was also a six point increase in the government’s good rating on COVID-19 response to 67%, with the poor rating steady on 15%.

As it did a fortnight ago, the poll also asked about the mainland state premiers from the small sub-samples in the relevant states: Gladys Berejiklian was at 75% approval (up seven) and 17% disapproval (down four); Daniel Andrews at 65% approval (up four) and 28% disapproval (down five); Annastacia Palazczuk at 65% approval (steady) and 27% disapproval (up three); Mark McGowan at 87% (up nine) approval and 7% disapproval (down five); and Steven Marshall, who was not featured in last fortnight’s polling, at 60% approval and 21% disapproval. State government handling of COVID-19 was rated as good by 82% of respondents in Western Australia, 76% in South Australia, 75% in New South Wales, 71% in Queensland and 59% in Victoria.

Respondents were asked how much attention they had been paying to recent news stories, with 73% saying they had closely followed the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, 68% the US presidential election, 36% the allegations of sexual misconduct raised by the ABC’s Four Corners, and 29% Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation from the shadow cabinet. It also finds an easing in concern over COVID-19, with 27% rating themselves very concerned (down three), 44% quite concerned (down two), 23% not that concerned (up three) and 6% not at all concerned (up two). The peak of concern was in early August, when 50% were very concerned, 40% quite concerned, 7% not that concerned and 3% not at all concerned.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,207 comments on “Essential Research state and federal leadership polling”

Comments Page 34 of 45
1 33 34 35 45
  1. Andrew Earlwood

    Poor you backing the LNP coal policy is not working out well for Fitzgibbon’s faction.

    Not even Murdoch’s help is working.

    Edit: it is working for the LNP of course

  2. Ah, OK.

    Guytaur, saying that the Greens attack Labor is true.

    Saying that that’s all they do is not.

    I say the first, never the second.

  3. Foreign states are not going to simply turn off billions and billions of invested infrastructure

    Don’t count on it.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/no-new-coal-fired-power-plants-india-80026/

    The 50GW of coal power currently under construction is already largely stranded, with the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) modeling showing none of these plants are required before 2022 and only possibly before 2027. 11GW of end-of-life thermal power plants will also close.

    The 50GW of coal power under construction will barely operate at 50% capacity, according to the new plan. These stranded assets are only moving forward as the government has opted to retain them as reserve capacity rather than write them off now.

  4. Zoomster

    You always say it whenever anyone talks about working with the Greens.

    You oppose cooperation between the Greens and Labor.
    Your schtick is it’s the evil Greens fault not Labors.

  5. “ In 1920, bullock drays, buggies, saddles, etc were still being widely used but were on the way out in developed countries. Maybe someone saw a viable market until 1950 and beyond. Only a complete fool would have bet the future on it, or someone paid off by the animal-powered transport industry.”

    You do realise that most of the world’s population is still dependent on beasts of burdens and the kind of accoutrements you list? No?

    I have confidence that all developed countries, not the least Australia can transition to 100% renewables well before 2050, but not in the countries where the vast majority of the world’s population live. I see moral or ethical problem with supplying them with the best coal in world until they – hopefully – complete their own transition to 100% renewables in – hopefully – the decade past 2050.

  6. Rex

    Appreciated if you would skim back and take note of my reply to you over HSR – and also Socrates’s reply which also backs me up.

  7. “ ”The Dems political arrogance from Clinton to Obama gave birth to this hideous creature.””

    Gaslighting horseshit form the usual suspect on bludger.

    Trump is the end game product of the 65 year project that started in reaction to the Civil Rights Act and the Grand Society.

  8. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 7:16 pm
    The Dems political arrogance from Clinton to Obama gave birth to this hideous creature.

    You won’t get an argument from me Rex. 8 million people who voted for Obama twice voted for Trump. If the Dems actually did Hope and Change instead of just talking about it, Trump wouldn’t have got a look in.

  9. “ On the contrary. A lot of developing countries are leapfrogging older technologies. Why would they do otherwise?”

    How Pollyanna of you to cheery pick without looking at the fundamentals and industrial scales at play.

    Leapfrogging might mean that Bangladesh, Ethiopia, etc etc might not go ahead with the next round of CFPS, but they ain’t turning off their current and new ones until they get their value out of them.

  10. Andrew Earlwood.

    Yes and Rex is right about Obama’s failures.
    I think Rex is right and that Biden is going to act on it.

    Remember in his first speech acknowledging the election result President Elect Biden specifically thanked black woman.

    That means he thanked Cory Bush and Stacey Abrams amongst many others.

  11. CC

    I acknowledged there are pockets where HSR makes sense.

    But I go back to my original point that the infrastructure improvements announced by Andrews and the empty suit sidekick are reasonably sound.

  12. Perparim

    The Dems were never going to do much substantive reform given the Senate. That’s your problem right there. A country with a voting system hopelessly skewed towards tiny states with poorly educated non urbanised voters. Solution? Generational demographic change. But its slow.

  13. AE
    “ Bangladesh has just spent billions on new coal fired power stations. Fact.

    India has tens and tens of billions invested in existing CFPS. Ditto China.”

    Lets all meet the new straw man in the room. There is one word to describe what is happening with new coal plants in both countries – corruption. Bangladesh and India are two of the most corrupt countries in the world. Angus Taylor could only dream of courts as weak as theirs. The new coal plants in both face strong opposition. But unaccountable governments tied to corrupt financiers in both ignore the facts.

    In fact, new coal power in both India and Bangladesh is much more expensive than it should be. Corruption is almost certainly the reason it gets approved anyway. See
    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00008/full

    Also
    https://www.marketforces.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Choked-by-Coal_The-Carbon-Catastrophe-in-Bangladesh-FULL.pdf

    Get your facts straight Andrew, and stop being so selective with them. Coal power is all over bar the corruption. That might buy it another 10 years.

    If the Asbestos industry had learnt to pay off the Liberal and Labor parties, they might still be in business. Lots of workers still die of coal dust. Does anyone in Labor still care?

  14. guytaur @ #1668 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 7:33 pm

    Andrew Earlwood.

    Yes and Rex is right about Obama’s failures.
    I think Rex is right and that Biden is going to act on it.

    Remember in his first speech acknowledging the election result President Elect Biden specifically thanked black woman.

    That means he thanked Cory Bush and Stacey Abrams amongst many others.

    Well hang on a bit there matey.

    I HOPE Biden and Harris will act on inequality and the environment, or he won’t maintain the huge voter turnout he got.

  15. Rex

    Those “pockets” account for an awful lot of people. Newcastle to Wollongong, Brisbane to Gold Coast and possibly Melbourne-Geelong.

    I don’t have a problem with a lot of the public transport proposed in Victoria. But that does not mean that there aren’t missed opportunities. HSR will survive the lack of a fast route from the airport. It simply means that when we do build HSR it will require its own (longer) tunnel. The airport link was a way of avoiding paying twice.

    Similarly, the plans they have for Geelong simply won’t cut it. That needs to be a 30 minute corridor in order to generate substantial induced demand.

    Similarly, Melbourne suffers the same problem Sydney does. Its grown too physically big for a rail network that averages 50 km/hr. Ideally there should be a fast shortcut along a couple of routes and one of those is the loop.

  16. “The Dems were never going to do much substantive reform given the Senate.”

    Except that even when they control the Senate they still don’t do substantive reform. Obama came in with the Dems holding all the cards. White House, The House of Reps and the Senate.

  17. Socrates

    The other factor in the decline of thermal coal exports from Australia in the coming decade is of course the fact that countries like India are also improving their coal mining productivity and will require less of ours.

    However you dice it, the thermal coal business here in the Hunter has 10-15 years left to live. This isn’t just my opinion – this is the opinion of those I talk to in the industry. Labor needs to plan new industries for the Hunter that start employing people before 2028.

  18. Perparim for 2 years only. During which time the Repugnants did everything possible to stall reform legislation, including world record filibusters. Now I agree that Obama wasted too much time negotiating with terrorists but that’s history.

  19. Rex I did earlier today steve

    I’ve been away all day. I generally don’t sift through the day’s posts but just try to pick up the conversation when I arrive, or maybe just post some random stuff I felt like posting.

    Trump is the apotheosis of a number of trends that have been developing over the last few decades, the root of which is neoliberalism. The winners of neoliberalism have redirected the anger of the losers away from themselves to other selected targets, “elites” (actually the intellectual and cultural elites but not themselves, the business and money elites); and various powerless out-groups who in the minds of many of the losers of neoliberalism can be described as “the others”.

    In terms of blame, Obama and Clinton fall way behind Reagan and Bush II. In Britain, Thatcher and her Conservative successors are enemies 1, 2, 3… with Blair way down the list. In Australia, Howard is most to blame.

  20. AEs comments about coal were also something of a non-sequiter as well as a straw man. That is because, even if true (they aren’t) the places quoted are so different in economic structure and costs to Australia that the comparison is not valid.

    But Andrew’s claims are often quoted by coal industry apologists so they have also been handily refuted. To further dismantle them, I recommend this report by the Australia Institute;
    https://www.tai.org.au/content/deconstructing-case-coal

    Highlights:
    – claims about new coal plants in developing countries are highly exaggerated.
    – more new coal plant plans are being shelved than built, worldwide
    – only seven countries in the world are building new coal plants now; most are very poor and corruption is a big issue in why.
    -one new coal plant is being built in Japan. It is a boondoggle in a rural area.
    – no OECD country is building a new coal plant on economic grounds.

  21. Cud

    That is true re the efficiency of Indian coal mining; same in China.

    However the core fact is still the same in India, China and Australia: wind and/or solar power (depending on the climate) are now cheaper than coal for new builds.

  22. Good on you Socrates. Let’s all loose the next 3 federal elections. Huzzah. I feel good. Pure. Clean.

    Also impotent. How about you?

    I am also right. But that can play itself out over the next 3 decades as we all Nash out impotent teeth together,

    How good is ScoMo.

  23. Cud
    “ However you dice it, the thermal coal business here in the Hunter has 10-15 years left to live. This isn’t just my opinion – this is the opinion of those I talk to in the industry. Labor needs to plan new industries for the Hunter that start employing people before 2028.”

    Agreed. My own brother is an engineer in a coal power plant. He knows the reality. His retirement is already well saved for though. Rather than go on with Andrew’s bulldust about coaldust, my brother and I would both be more interested in seeing a realistic plan for jobs in coal towns. What will my brother’s two 20-something sons do for a job in the near future? Neither works in the coal plant now. There have been no new jobs in it for a while and the nephew who had an apprenticeship (won awards) saw the maintenance business he worked in close down due to restructuring. He has found other work but is disillusioned. I don’t blame him.

    So Andrew, kindly cut the BS about coal jobs.

  24. ” Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 7:44 pm
    Perparim for 2 years only. During which time the Repugnants did everything possible to stall reform legislation, including world record filibusters ”

    The Conservatives are much worse than the Dems. No doubt about that but my point is even when the Dems have a chance for serious reform they don’t do it, they just talk about it. Take the State of Virginia for example. The Governor is Democrat and the Dems control the State House. You would think they would be pro-workers. They are NOT. Out of 51 States the state of Virginia is rated as dead last when it comes to workers rights.

    ” Virginia ranks #51 overall, #51 for wage policies ”

    Virginia Is Worst State for Workers’ Rights
    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2019-09-03/virginia-ranked-worst-state-for-workers-rights

    The Dems talk change but they don’t do change. Hence in desperation 8 million Americans who voted for Obama TWICE, voted for Trump.

  25. You know Socrates, we are 0nly arguing about a difference in the estimate when the coal industry goes kaput – not as to IF it will. You say … I’m guessing 2030-35. Sniffing the wind, and factoring all those ‘bad, corrupt etc’ things in that you are railing about – it is bleedingly obvious that it will actually be twice as long.

    Anyhow’s I reckon Labor has half a chance to sell a 30 year transition plan to mining communities this decade, but no chance in fuck of selling a ‘we only have 10 years until you are all fucked’ plan. I reckon those committed will all go lnp if that’s the message. Either that or ON. And there simply ain’t the seats left on the board to compensate those political loses.

    I’d rather put ScoMo in the political grave this decade rather than wait until 2030 or later, thank you very much. If I’m wrong and you are right, then I’d rather be in government to manage that change than carping on the sidelines watching ScoMo balls it up.

  26. AE

    Most coal miners I know already believe we have 10-15 years.
    Labor comes out with a 30 year transition plan and they will scoff at it. That’s just vapourware.
    Labor comes out with a plan for lots of real jobs before the end of the decade, they might sit up and pay attention.

  27. Mining is highly automated these days. It directly provides relatively few jobs. We don’t have generations of families going “down into the pits” any more. It does provide lots of indirect jobs, I have no idea how many. However, I suspect that it’s wise to divide any claims by mining boosters by N, where N ≈ 10. Works for Adani.

    Does mining provide more jobs than car manufacturing? Or any number of industries lost over recent decades.

    Australia 2050: we can’t make stuff. We import everything. We’re an “quarry republic”, a de-facto colony, world leader in the mining of stuff no one wants to buy (coal) and other stuff people do (iron ore) – the benefits go offshore via tax havens. Maybe Australia will be one by then.

  28. And that’s why ON and the Nations surged in the 2019 federal election. Your ‘all the coal miners I know’ stick conflates the anecdotal with the political reality.

  29. Reading about the crimes committed by some of our soldiers in Afghanistan, not to mention the Australian Army’s reputation for not taking prisoners in WW1, reminded me of a scene from Band of Brothers. For those not aware, this series was based on the experiences of a real unit in WW2, and I believe this actually happened:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77sBdO7P9yk

  30. Cory Bernardi on Sky at the moment tearing Marshall a new bottom and absolutely ripping into the SA government….really funny….

    Yes well we can’t have indelicate language in such polite company can we.

    Old RWNJs never die, they simply get recycled on Murdoch media.

    Actually, Cory Bernardi was a major player in stymying attempts at climate action in Australia, according to Marian Wilkinson’s “The Carbon Club”, featured on ABC Radio National a couple of weeks ago: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/book-club-6/?atb=DSA01b&gclid=CjwKCAiAtej9BRAvEiwA0UAWXhQWVlDE5NuGpbx1yfj646ef_5fvZT5JRbQpU6AclbdDxNxMKYm_-xoCjTEQAvD_BwE

  31. Andrew
    “You say … I’m guessing 2030-35. Sniffing the wind, and factoring all those ‘bad, corrupt etc’ things in that you are railing about – it is bleedingly obvious that it will actually be twice as long. ”

    More bulldust. How would you know? Did you even read those reports I posted? Our coal plants could all be safely and economically replaced with renewable power right now. There would be more jobs created in the new power industry than lost in the closed plants and mines. As each new generation of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries hits the markets the equation only gets worse for coal. The only reason I suggested 10 years is because it will take that long to physically build the replacements. Doing so would actually create a construction and power industry boom in Qld and NSW, not that the ignoramii in the CFMEU seem to realise it. If not, my brother’s town will continue to slowly die.

    The only reason that we are taking so long is so that a generation of selfish and conservative middle-aged men(some pretending to be members of the Labor movement) can avoid facing the need for a career change in their working lifetime. They need to get over themselves, as do their political enablers. If not, all Joel Fitzgibbon and co will achieve in their remaining time in office will be to gift more seats to the Greens.

    I should add my uncle was also an engineer who worked in a coal town until he became the State Labor MP for over ten years. He doesn’t pretend either.

  32. Socrates. I don’t think you’ll find I’m arguing with the pace of change to renewables onshore – all that has to happen is for the federal government to finally set the rules and it will be done.

    My focus is on the seaborn export market. All those reports that you and cud post – well they conflate ‘could’ with ‘will’. Therein lies the rub.

    Why don’t we just focus on killing ScoMo and his merry band of pirates – which means holding seats like hunter and winning back at least 5 seats in regional Queensland before we work together to help turn all those ‘coulds’ into actualities from the position of government. … just a thought.

  33. “ Nope. No way they could.”

    Come on dandy. We live in the Big Rock Candy Mountain.of course they could.

    Cud and Socrates have posted some reports.

    ‘Could’ lols.

  34. DM

    To do the required changes to grids, power storage and new plants would take ten years as I said. But the technology is good enough already to make the decision right now. The money is less than what we will pay for any alternative. The only thing lacking is the political will, mainly lacking in the political apparatus, not the citizenry. Various academics have been modelling this for several years. See
    https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P881%20Getting%20Off%20Coal%20%5BWEB%5D.pdf

  35. If you say so, cud. Did you actually read your own report? India is slowing the pace of the coal take up. It may even retire some end of life stations early. Some new ones will come on line slightly later and some may run at only 50% capacity for a while.

    That sounds like an absolute shed lot of coal to be consumed on the sub continent over the next 30 or 40 years at least.

    Straw man my arse.

Comments Page 34 of 45
1 33 34 35 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *