Essential Research state and federal leadership polling

High and improving personal ratings for all incumbent leaders, as concern about COVID-19 eases just slightly.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison up three on approval to 66% and down two on approval to 25%, Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 39%, and Morrison holding a 53-24 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 50-25. There was also a six point increase in the government’s good rating on COVID-19 response to 67%, with the poor rating steady on 15%.

As it did a fortnight ago, the poll also asked about the mainland state premiers from the small sub-samples in the relevant states: Gladys Berejiklian was at 75% approval (up seven) and 17% disapproval (down four); Daniel Andrews at 65% approval (up four) and 28% disapproval (down five); Annastacia Palazczuk at 65% approval (steady) and 27% disapproval (up three); Mark McGowan at 87% (up nine) approval and 7% disapproval (down five); and Steven Marshall, who was not featured in last fortnight’s polling, at 60% approval and 21% disapproval. State government handling of COVID-19 was rated as good by 82% of respondents in Western Australia, 76% in South Australia, 75% in New South Wales, 71% in Queensland and 59% in Victoria.

Respondents were asked how much attention they had been paying to recent news stories, with 73% saying they had closely followed the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, 68% the US presidential election, 36% the allegations of sexual misconduct raised by the ABC’s Four Corners, and 29% Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation from the shadow cabinet. It also finds an easing in concern over COVID-19, with 27% rating themselves very concerned (down three), 44% quite concerned (down two), 23% not that concerned (up three) and 6% not at all concerned (up two). The peak of concern was in early August, when 50% were very concerned, 40% quite concerned, 7% not that concerned and 3% not at all concerned.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,211 comments on “Essential Research state and federal leadership polling”

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  1. We all laugh at US voters, but when it comes to talking about coal, I see some here are no better than Trump supporters, steadfastly in denial, refusing to even read evidence that will prove their opinions wrong.

    Night all.

  2. Soc,

    Energy balance is only part of the equation.

    If we removed all conventional coal generators from the NEM today, we would not have the enough of the frequency and voltage stability and system strength services required to maintain power delivery through the transmission grid. We’d have a really “lightweight” grid and not enough control to stabilise it. We would not have enough grid forming capacity, and we don’t have enough fault ride-through capacity. I don’t know how the grid could be restarted after a system black without quitea few of our coal-fired fleet.

    There are technical solutions proposed for all of these problems, but only a few are tested and none are cheap.

  3. And some will simply be used occasionally..
    And in any case, India is increasing its own coal production.

    Go and talk to some actual coal miners AE. They know thermal coal does not have 30 years left in it.

  4. Dandy

    Whilst its true that the grid today doesn’t have sufficient resources to deal with sudden deletion of the coal fired stations, I’m not particularly bothered by the proposition that we could build what we need to provide these services within 10 years. Also, cheap thermal energy storage, whilst not supremely efficient, seems a good place to start for grid forming. And it would be fast to implement (brutally simple technology).

    Besides the fun problems are now in transport and manufacturing. Electricity is (almost) a solved problem.

  5. a r:

    There might be a simpler possibility:
    – The worse COVID got, the more unemployment there was

    That relationship held in the first three months or so, due to lockdowns.

    Since then , and when Trump got moving on anti-mask rhetoric, the lockdowns came off and (after a delay) unemployment fell AND COVID infection rose (both quite dramatically).

    What they need is a dynamic lockdown (which we sort of had in Vic, and certainly in SA – whatever else it was, it certainly dynamic!) which enables the economy to reopen safely.

    Lock at what worked for the Spanish ‘Flu in the US, staggered business opening hours and all the rest. That was directed at allowing the economy to operate under a ‘Flu pandemic, and it worked.

    – The job losses tended to affect unskilled, low-paid positions the most (restaurant staff, retailers, hospitality, etc.)

    People in precarious employment tended to vote D, Trump won only the 100k+ household income demographic.

    – A person left unemployed by COVID probably wants 1) COVID to go away and 2) COVID-related restrictions to end, and has plenty of time to vote
    – Trump (baselessly) promised that COVID would go away and that there’d be no more lockdowns

    Tell millions of involuntarily-idle and angry people from one of your most favorable demographics (non-college-educated working-class) that you’ll give them what they want, and it’s not surprising that they vote for you.

    The secret sauce—from LBJ’s ladle, via Nixon—is always to give people some other group to blame and resent… And this is particularly so after people regain employment, and most particularly if there’s a 20% paycut from pre-pandemic salary…

  6. Georgia will recount its votes following Trump campaign request
    Georgia is set to recount its presidential election votes after the Trump campaign filed a request on Saturday. Trump is entitled to request a recount due to the fact that Joe Biden’s victory in the state was by less than a 0.5% margin. Georgia state officials certified the results on Friday after conducting a hand recount, which Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said “upheld and reaffirmed the original outcome.” The second recount will be conducted by machine and the cost will be covered by taxpayers.

    This damn election is never going to end.

  7. “ And in any case, India is increasing its own coal production.”

    my original post already factored in various proposals to do exactly that.

    However such projects are not without their own difficulties, especially when thermal rating, ash content and moisture are taken into account.

  8. ”If we removed all conventional coal generators from the NEM today, we would not have the enough of the frequency and voltage stability and system strength services required to maintain power delivery through the transmission grid.”

    As I recall, that well-known electrical engineer Chris Uhlmann expressed similar concerns following the statewide blackout in SA that was a result of widespread storms, with the political right and their media allies chiming in.

    OK, there’s an engineering problem, hopefully not insurmountable otherwise we’ll see an end to the power grid when the coal runs out some time next century and a return to the Middle Ages (which would involve a 90% cut in the World’s population).

    I’m no expert but there are lots of experts saying renewable is the way to go. The wind does blow all the time, but not everywher all the time. An engineering problem. The Sun shines every day, in some places obscured by cloud. Another engineering problem.

    There’s so much bullshit flying around. However, one way or another, not much coal will be used in 2100.

  9. Some on this site are warning the world to stay far from the edge of the flat earth. We are going there, with technology and cost the drivers. The grid (as we know it) doesn’t exist on the other side !

  10. Just on Trump, I do a bit of responding on Facebook with one particular right wing semi-religious site. I’m amazed how these people have no issue with his pathological lying, it seems to be religious means to be a total and utter hypocrite. When they called out all you hear is crickets.

  11. Dandy Murray
    Perhaps the time to use the energy transfer medium to control the frequency has gone. It’s not as if we don’t have a handle on communication.

    Perhaps it is time to face reality. The future is power electronics not synchronous sets.

  12. Has anyone else noticed that the only state to record a lower overall voter turnout this year than 2016 is New York: down by over 8% fro 4 years ago, when the overall popular vote is up by over 14% nation wide. Although still nearly 20% ahead of the Republicans the democrat vote in NY was down 7% this year.

    If this a counting anomaly (still haven’t gotten around to counting the mail in votes, nearly 3 weeks later) or perhaps a bit of a backlash against Andrew Coumo’s handling of Covid?

    What gives?

  13. “ The Dems put most of their effort into the swing states and not NY, California etc.”

    But only NY is down. Every other state seems to be up by at least 5%. Even the non battleground states. Most by double figures.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1649 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 7:17 pm

    You call me a gibbon. I’ll call you a pedophile.

    The difference is that one of these is true. The other, of course, is a disgraceful lie.

    But I’m happy to leave it to others to judge which is which.

    William may not be quite so happy. Or he might. You never really know, with William.

  15. New York City at least had increased voter turn out this year. However there was heavy rain in New York on election day so maybe that has something to do with it.

  16. Kirky @ #1714 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 8:30 pm

    Just on Trump, I do a bit of responding on Facebook with one particular right wing semi-religious site. I’m amazed how these people have no issue with his pathological lying, it seems to be religious means to be a total and utter hypocrite. When they called out all you hear is crickets.

    Lying, however, doesn’t actually appear to be considered sinful in any major way. Guess Trump gets a free pass on that, and it’s not actually hypocritical. 🙁

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1718 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 8:46 pm

    Has anyone else noticed that the only state to record a lower overall voter turnout this year than 2016 is New York: down by over 8% fro 4 years ago, when the overall popular vote is up by over 14%. Although still nearly 20% ahead of the Republicans the democrat vote was down 7% this year.

    NY isn’t done counting yet.

  17. shellbell,

    Hopefully WorkCover will launch a prosecution into the obvious non-existent instruction on safety and probably deficient equipment

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ubereats-rider-killed-in-sydney-s-south-identified-as-bangladesh-student-bijoy-paul-20201122-p56gv5.html

    I really, really hope so. The death toll in this industry is bad enough that I rarely use the service – Menulog at least lets restaurants do their own deliveries, not that I use that much.

    I also wish someone would look at the safety of cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians in Sydney. I understand that they now collectively make up more than 1/3 of the road toll, and in about 80% of cases the motor vehicle is at fault.

    I have given up riding my bike to work after too many near misses. And I have been a commuter cyclist on and off for 30 years.

  18. Kirky @ #1714 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 8:30 pm

    Just on Trump, I do a bit of responding on Facebook with one particular right wing semi-religious site. I’m amazed how these people have no issue with his pathological lying, it seems to be religious means to be a total and utter hypocrite. When they called out all you hear is crickets.

    ————————————————————
    They also don’t like it when someone points out to them that Jesus don’t like lying their asses off, and being called a fake Christian, as true Christians would not do what Donald Trump and Republicans are doing.

  19. I’m not particularly bothered by the proposition that we could build what we need to provide these services within 10 years.

    Yes, 10 years, sure thing. It’s commonly agreed that ~2/3 of col-fired generation to be gone in 15 years if we do nothing at all expect replace what we have with the cheapest options.

    My comment was in response to Soc’s claim we could do it today and it would be economic.

    Today!? Not a chance.

    It’s not a fine distinction!

  20. Doesn’t look to me like the global switch to Renewables is happening anytime soon, as much as some would like it:

    The world’s largest thermal-coal exporter is eyeing new markets as its largest export destinations threaten to cut imports. Indonesia is targeting Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam as China and India seek to curb thermal-coal imports into the long term.

    As a result, Australian and South African thermal-coal exporters aren’t going to have it all their own way in seeking increased deliveries to markets such as Vietnam. Furthermore, it looks increasingly like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan are going to disappoint those hoping for more demand growth from these countries.

    A key problem faced by thermal-coal exporters in Australia, Indonesia and South Africa is that China and India are increasingly prioritizing their own very large domestic coal-mining industries. Both nations are keen to reduce imports as much as possible for energy-security reasons and to protect domestic jobs.

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/coal-exporters-should-brace-for-disappointment/

    Seems as though some emerging economies like Indonesia have discovered coal mining.

    And I’m amazed that anyone seeking to have an informed discussion about coal mining hasn’t mentioned Africa at all. Probably because it doesn’t suit the narrative.

  21. frenk,

    Yes, an external freq synchronisation signal and power inverters in voltage source mode is a pretty radical transformation, but it is the likely end point.

    In the meantime, you need a lot of capacitors to emulate a rotating machine. One of my PhDs came up with a novel inverter topology that applies the voltage across the DC link capacitor in opposition to frequency changes, to provide instantaneous power as if it were inertia (needless to say, he’s much cleverer than me). The capacitor’s stored energy is equivalent to kinetic energy in a rotating mass. How much energy is in a 400V 150 micro F cap? How much is in a generator turbine and the lump of copper at it’s end?

    Another problem is that power electronics don’t give system strength in the case of line faults. Everything trips off on protection, i.e. blackouts and/or islanding.

    Lots of engineering challenges!

  22. “ And I’m amazed that anyone seeking to have an informed discussion about coal mining hasn’t mentioned Africa at all. Probably because it doesn’t suit the narrative.”

    Africa looms large in my thinking as to the practical timelines for a global 100% renewals outcome.

    Whilst Indonesia, China and India are all expanding domestic production – for various reasons – they are not likely to fill the market in the near or medium term. Australian coal from the Hunter and Bowen is also simply better by every metric.

    The end is coming – and Canavan, Angus and Joel may not want to accept that – but its not coming at the rate that our dreamers (and the odd self acknowledged pedophile 😉 ) would have us believe.

  23. Socrates says:
    Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 7:49 pm
    AEs comments about coal were also something of a non-sequiter as well as a straw man. That is because, even if true (they aren’t) the places quoted are so different in economic structure and costs to Australia that the comparison is not valid.

    But Andrew’s claims are often quoted by coal industry apologists so they have also been handily refuted. To further dismantle them, I recommend this report by the Australia Institute;
    https://www.tai.org.au/content/deconstructing-case-coal

    Highlights:
    – claims about new coal plants in developing countries are highly exaggerated.
    – more new coal plant plans are being shelved than built, worldwide
    – only seven countries in the world are building new coal plants now; most are very poor and corruption is a big issue in why.
    -one new coal plant is being built in Japan. It is a boondoggle in a rural area.
    – no OECD country is building a new coal plant on economic grounds.

    The market for coal is undergoing far-reaching and irreversible changes; changes that will drive down coal sales and prices. Values – revenues and volumes – in the thermal coal extraction and shipping system have already declined substantially and this will become more and more pronounced. The seaborne coal trade, which has only ever been a modest component of the total coal trade, will become redundant within a few years as coal is displaced as a fuel source by renewables. This is just inexorable.

    This process is a dire political menace to the Greens. Whatever will they do when coal has been stopped? Their stunts will be useless.

  24. I have a contact that consults to the World Bank on energy systems.

    He was advising them on a coal power station in Bangladesh. It was to be fired from seaborne coal imports. They were having trouble finding location for it, because the sites that are suitable now are expected to be inundated by the sea with 15 years.

  25. Dandy Murray @ #1736 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 7:48 pm

    I have a contact that consults to the World Bank on energy systems.

    He was advising them on a coal power station in Bangladesh. It was to be fired from seaborne coal imports. They were having trouble finding location for it, because the sites that are suitable now are expected to be inundated by the sea with 15 years.

    Ensures a short lifespan. 😆

  26. Hmmm – adding #.jpg to the end did not get it to display (my Safari Browser, anyway).

    Need to keep trying.

    Kay Jay, I know you have told us all how to do this many times, but if you have time for a quick refresher, it would be very much appreciated 🙂

  27. In the usual human fashion, as the coal sector declines into obsolescence those harmed will cast around for someone to blame for their misfortunes. The LNP are going to make sure they do not carry the blame. They will try to deflect it to their enemies – to Labor. The Greens will do their very best to make sure Labor also gets the blame for the termination of the coal industry in the same way as they now try to blame Labor for the continuation of the coal industry.

    The Australian coal industry will close. Labor will be made the whipping boy for this. Rely on it.

  28. Dandy

    I’ve designed high power inverters for industrial/mining apps. You don’t necessarily need huge capacitors to provide synthetic inertia.

  29. Exclusive
    Geoff Chambers
    FEDERAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
    An hour ago November 22, 2020

    Senior Labor Left faction powerbroker Murray Watt will reset the party’s approach to coal and gas and declare the ALP “treasures” every job created in the mining sector, in a major speech on Monday.

    Senator Watt, a close factional ally of Anthony Albanese, will support the long-term viability of the resources sector in the battleground coalmining electorate of Capricornia while backing Labor’s commitment to unlock the potential of renewables, ­hydrogen and critical minerals.

    Speaking at the Developing Northern Australia Conference in Rockhampton, the Queensland senator will say resources and agriculture jobs are “important to families, to the north, and the nation — and they deserve our ongoing support”.

  30. Cud,

    Were they driving heavy synchronous machines, by any chance? Because rotating inertia can be in the load too.

    This is one of the reasons why matching refrigeration and HVAC loads to VRE is desirable. The compressors provide inertia while the wind blows and the sun shines.

  31. Interesting response from Brett Sutton..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhvK8JNw7yI

    23:49 to 27:26

    One very important point. When incursions do occur, its a lot, lot easier to deal with them when your starting point is elimination. Brett pretty much says this.

    He also says (without actually saying it) that Victoria should have proceeded to full lockdown a lot sooner than it did.

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