As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.
Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.
The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.
Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.
UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.
In other news:
• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.
• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.
• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.
Kakuru @ #71 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:36 am
Nothing quasi or quisling about Mundo, Sweetpea.
I just wish Labor would stop being a quasi-opposition and embrace the role and it’s responsibilities wholeheartedly and passionately. There’s a lot at stake.
But if you’re happy with how things are going with your boy Scrooter and all, well that’s your business.
Full Essential poll, includes questions on the budget
https://essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Essential-Report-191020.pdf
lizzie @ #94 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 10:35 am
Great, thanks. Now we get to imagine Joshy on the job.
SA high on don’t know about performance on theirPremier
On the Leppington land deal (apologies if others have pointed this out already) it is interesting to note the background of those involved.
Senator Wong questioned Infrastructure Department Secretary Simon Atkinson yesterday:
“Infrastructure Department secretary Simon Atkinson told a Senate committee he had serious concerns about how the deal was handled and wanted to “clean it up”.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-20/leppington-triangle-deal-auditor-general-first-alert-to-afp/12784116
This is the same Simon Atkinson who was formerly a Chief of Staff to Finance minister Matthias Cormann. Cormann parachuted Atkinson into Treasury as a Dep Sec. Obvious question: was the Infrastructure Secretary conflicted by any personal relationships?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/13/former-liberal-staffers-parachuted-into-top-treasury-positions-says-labor
mundosays:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 10:42 am
lizzie @ #94 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 10:35 am
Cheryl Kernot
@cheryl_kernot
·
24m
“In easily the funniest account of yesterday’s tiff between Andrews & Frydenberg, The Oz’s Joe Kelly & Remy Varga “report” that, “Mr Frydenberg is a passionate Victorian whose wife and children have been locked down while he delivered the COVID recovery budget in Canberra”
Is this a hint that Joshie’s anger stems from sexual frustration?!
Great, thanks. Now we get to imagine Joshy on the job.
____________________________________
Hey Mundo,
Bennelong Lurker @ #88 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:13 am
Only visited a couple of times, and it’s been 25 years. But I imagine it’s still a beautiful part of the world.
Do you know how jurisdictions there manage their covid responses. Is it at the local government level or do the Laender have overall responsibility? I ask because 50-60kms isn’t far. International borders are close by. Passports aren’t needed among EU countries anyway. I expect enforcing any type of lock down would be difficult.
I hope your daughter is doing OK and stays OK. (I have one in Denver.)
Parliamentary behaviour.
2 local cases in NSW – both linked to clusters
The UK’s Chief Scientist warns that COVID-19 will become endemic like the annual flu, despite the possible availability of vaccines by early next year.
Speaking to a Commons National Security Strategy Committee, Sir Patrick Vallance said the rollout of a successfully trialled vaccine would occur hopefully after the start of the British spring. However, he said these vaccines were unlikely to eradicate the virus.
Vallance said it was important to give the public a “realistic picture” of the efficacy of the vaccine, given the average time of making a vaccine “from scratch” is 10 years. “I do think we should not over promise,” he said.
“We can’t be certain, but I think it’s unlikely we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine, something that completely stops infection, and it’s likely this disease will circulate and be endemic.
“And this starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going.”
Vallance said that as management and treatments became better, combined with the vaccine, that the chance of infection would reduce as well as its severity.
Alpha Zero @ #98 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:35 am
The rest of the country owes Victorians a big thank you. Australia is a safer place now than it was 3 months ago. We’re safer because of the simple reduced risk of becoming infected, but also because we now have an example of how to deal with it when clusters inevitably appear. As well as gratitude the rest of Australia now owes it to Victoria to stay on top of this thing. It ain’t over.
Debate commission says moderator can cut Trump’s mic for 2 minutes if he interrupts Biden
On Monday, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that they will be adopting new rules that will cut the candidates microphones if they attempt to interrupt the other for 2 minutes of uninterrupted time per debate segment.
The likely result of this rule change will be to prevent interruption by President Donald Trump, who spent a large part of the first debate trying to talk over Joe Biden, at one point interrupting him ten times as he tried to answer just one question.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/debate-commission-says-moderator-can-cut-trumps-mic-for-2-minutes-if-he-interrupts-biden/
Alpha Zero @ #106 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 10:56 am
Probably after the job. But equally repulsive.
It looks like The Reichspud was behind the ‘bubble bursting’
.
.
Woman sets the record straight amid controversy over New Zealanders entering Melbourne
“I got the news that my father had passed away, so I wanted to come to Melbourne for the funeral,” she said.
“I wasn’t sure whether I could come or not, so I went to a travel agent to book the flights.
He rang up the Home Affairs and they said I could come, so I booked the flight.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300136849/transtasman-bubble-woman-sets-the-record-straight-amid-controversy-over-new-zealanders-entering-melbourne
poroti
Because anything that Dutton can do to destroy Labor/Dan’s credibility, he will choose to do. This would be why Pezzullo answered as he did in Estimates.
It’s all over.
The attack on Dr. Fauci was the final nail in Trump’s coffin. We won’t be needing that stake through his heart after all.
All that’s left for him is to order the pilot of Air Force One to fly to Moscow so that he can seek political asylum from Putin.
L R.@10.57:
Not sure who is responsible for overall management within each state, but assume it is similar to ours whereby state controls overall but makes directions according to the local area. Happy to be corrected about this. Matters educational, as in will a school open or close seem to be somewhat localised. I gather, from some things she has said, that the same problems are arising in Germany from its federal structure as are occurring here in getting any unanimity of approach. Her message specifically referred to the Berchtesgaden “local council area” being in total lockdown in the present situation.
In daughter’s area conformity to lockdown requirements has been fairly well maintained, but the family lives in a tiny village and ever since Covid first arrived in Munich in January(?), the family has been very careful. I think that having previously lived both in Mumbai and Beijing they were well aware of the need for careful health measures.
It is an exceptionally beautiful area and I have been fortunate to visit it several times, although as matters stand these days, and with my considerably advanced years, I very much doubt I will get there again. It is also still very cold at Christmas time! They are only about 20 kms from the Austrian border so, when travel is not restricted they tend to pop across the border to Salzburg rather than go to Munich. They regularly frequent (or used to) the specialty food markets there.
I do hope your daughter is keeping safe and well. Like mine, she is probably not looking forward to the possible further impact of Covid during the coming winter.
Steve777:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 8:10 am
[‘Newscorp is actively supporting and defending her (Berejiklian).’]
Newscorp is…?
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6201534448001
There’s not much (if any) discussion about the effect of cold weather on Covid infections, compared with the rate where the air is humid and warm. Victoria is coming out of winter, whereas Europe is heading to the cold. Also compare north with south in Australia.
Sir Patrick Vallance’s notion of a vaccine:
Donald Trump’s notion of a vaccine:
Please show Frydenberg some respect. It’s a totally innocent photo of young Josh, exhausted after tossing and wacking a few balls around. Probably suffering a bit of tennis elbow and groin strain. Honestly, get your minds out of the gutter!
Bennelong Lurker, you paint well. 🙂 Thank you.
That image of the three tennis rackets, I reckon it’s posed, by the poser.
Late Riser @ #114 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 11:53 am
It looks like a very young Nadal to me, so I wouldn’t definitely say it isn’t real. 😉
[‘Donald Trump and Joe Biden will have their microphones muted during the next presidential debate so each can have their speaking time uninterrupted.’]
https://www.9news.com.au/national/presidential-debate-mute-button-donald-trump-joe-biden-interruptions-new-rules/c8f62155-0640-4a9f-b27b-d25af85c049e?ref=BP_RSS_ninenews_0_final-presidential-debate-to-feature-mute-button-to-stop-trump–_201020
It’s a brilliant virus, isn’t it?
● Wildly infectious but also,
● Selective lethal,
● Apparently benign in most cases,
● Delayed symptoms and damage to organs,
● Difficulties with immunization,
● Confusion about effective treatment.
A perfect complement to crackpot theories of everything from both the Left and Right of politics: that it’s about “freedom”, mind control, geopolitical plots, pedophilia, autism, the true expression of manhood, religion, racism, “elites”, the economy and snake oil remedies, to name some of the saner theories.
I’ve had people look me straight in the eye, completely serious, and tell me the stories about ICUs being overloaded are 100% lies and that the people who have supposedly “died” are being held in camps in the desert (or catacombs and disued subway tunnels under city streets). The coffins in mass graves are empty. I’ve been told it’s God’s Punishment for Humanity’s sins. It’s just a bad cold. The list is endless, mostly coming from otherwise apparently sane people.
The only common attribute among them is that none of them have been infected yet.
Trump, failing to act because he was afraid of an economic panic, has been, ever since, forced to deny the virus is an ongoing, serious threat. As a result, any measures to control, abate or lower infection rates have become politically weaponized. Why react to something that doesn’t exist, or is only very minor in effect? Why wear masks? Only sissies do. Millions are infected as a result. Hundreds of thousands die. Democracies are imperiled. Leaders talk seriously about letting the elderly die, to bring about herd immunity. People who claim to have been previously ill are whiners, hypochondriacs, or Democrats.
The awful truth is that there is a kernel of truth in all of the above. We know that those on the Right use the non-wearing of masks as a weapon. But is anyone naive enough to truly believe that their opponents in the Left don’t also exploit mask-wearing for converse reasons? Masks – wearing them, or not – have become tribal totems, symbols of loyalty. Not all the time, but enough times. No side of politics is completely innocent.
There are plenty of young, and not so young people who will see the opportunity of an accelerated inheritance should Granny kick the bucket.
It’s a very clever virus.
Lethal, but not too lethal. Damaging, but not THAT immediately damaging. It challenges our hubris as a species, our inflated opinion of ourselves. It exploits our collective ability to shrug off trouble, to procrastinate, and to be cruel to each other.
And to believe in chimeras and fantasies, then to claim a God given right to do so.
I hope Gladdie is asked in which version was she lying to the public.
Sunday
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/19/gladys-berejiklian-accused-of-breaching-code-of-conduct-after-admitting-she-hoped-to-marry-mp
Monday
Covid: ‘Delayed symptoms and damage to organs’
Little chance of further damage to Trump’s brain, then. As for other organs..
Billie:
As they now do in Australia – even those families that have become wealthy through manufacturing mostly go into real property in the next generation. Because nothing beats down risk like sucking at the government teat! But in the long term someone needs to run real businesses, if only to sustain the
rort.
The period from 1945 (ands a somewhat similar period from around 1850 to 1880) showed what can be achieved. It is unstable—per the Lucas critique—but can be returned to from time to time, and perhaps extended in the length of the period
My recollection of Leviathan was “nasty, brutish and short” and I always thought that if a certain poster were half the man he thinks he is he would have come up with the obvious, viz: “Nasty, Brutish and Shorten”!
C@tmomma @ #125 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 11:07 am
If it is JF, you could have a bit of fun with the young feller’s “love of rackets”. But it looks posed to me. That image is too cute by half . Was Cleo still doing centrefolds back then?
Following the end on the 18th of October of the 13-year United Nations’ embargo on Iran buying or selling weapons, the roll-out of the military component of the 25-year deal between China and Iran will begin in November, as exclusively revealed by Oil Price.com. After a series of meetings in China on the 9th and 10th of October between Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, and his China counterpart, Wang Yi, this military component may now also feature the deployment in Iran of North Korean weaponry and technology, in exchange for oil, according to sources very close to the Iranian government spoken to by OilPrice.com last week. Most notably this would include Hwasong-12 mobile ballistic missiles, with a range of 4,500 kilometres, and the development of liquid propellant rocket engines suitable for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or satellite launch vehicles (SLVs). This will all be part of a broader triangular relationship co-ordinated by Beijing and further facilitated by the imminent launch of a new digitised currency system by China.
This sort of co-ordination – between North Korea and Iran and also between North Korea, Iran, and China – is nothing new, although its resumption at such a scale and in such products is. According to a number of defence industry sources – and recorded in various ‘Jane’s Intelligence Reviews’ (JIR) – over the first five-year period from the onset of Iran’s ballistic missile program in 1987, Iran bought up to 300 Scud B missiles from North Korea. Pyongyang, though, did not just sell Iran weapons but it was also instrumental in helping Iran to build-out the infrastructure for what has become an extremely high-level ballistic missile program, beginning with the creation in Iran of a Scud B missile plant that became operational by the end of 1988. According to JIR and other defence sources, this early-stage co-operation in this area between North Korea and Iran also included Iranian personnel travelling to North Korea for training in the operation and manufacture of these missiles and the stationing of North Korean personnel in Iran during the build-out of missile plants. This model of knowledge and skills transference, of course, has been a key part of the 25-year deal between Iran and China since it was formally agreed back in 2016, including the training of up to 130 young, fast-tracked officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) every year at various military institutions across mainland China. The simple idea of paying North Korea in oil is also far from new, having been a key method by which Iran helped to fund the development of North Korea’s more powerful Nodong series of missiles as early as the 1990s, according to Kenneth Katzman, Middle Eastern affairs specialist at the Congressional Research Service, in Washington. According to sources close to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, oil shipments are the number one suggestion from North Korea to any country that has oil and wants weapons as a means of payment for any weaponry that Pyonyang has available.
‘the United Australia Party’s advertising campaign was “a bit like an advertising blitzkrieg”. The court heard the advertisements were broadcast 18,649 times on free-to-air television and seen 17.5 million times on YouTube.’
Holy shit….18,649 times
Taylormade will be pleased to know his information yesterday was not accurate.
I didnt bother waiting for him to clarify this.
We could of been waiting for an eternity.
Heidi Murphy
@heidimur
·
21m
ALSO from the presser:
Confirmation tracking bracelets are being considered for returning travellers;
And it was a professional review of clinical practices in the HQP that exposed the “very very low” but potential risk of contamination from shared blood-glucose test equipment.
Excellent piece.
My sentimental exactly. He doesnt miss our pathetic media and pollies.
See new Tweets
Conversation
David Milner
@DaveMilbo
Here’s me. “We deserve this moment. But don’t forget who helped and who hindered”
We deserve this moment. But don’t forget who helped and who hindered.
You’re an absolute legend.
theshot.net.au
10:27 AM · Oct 20, 2020·Twitter Web App
Here is article.
https://theshot.net.au/general-news/we-deserve-this-moment-but-dont-forget-who-helped-and-who-hindered/
mundo @ #133 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 11:34 am
Those things were everywhere. It was obnoxious.
EGT:
how about nathy, brutish and Shorten.
It begs the question: who is brutish?
As if muting Trump is going to stop him in the debate, he’ll just shout and rage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/10/19/trump-biden-live-updates/#link-DEMEOXARTJFEVKUGI5AZ75DITI
Victoria @ #134 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 12:35 pm
Another beatup.
Colour me shocked.
Poroti, I just wonder was he not her BF in the same way the Julie Bishop didn’t have a BF…
I wonder are they going with F*ckBuddy not BF and definitely not defacto relationship for taxation and ministerial claims reasons…
Remember with Bishop he was her partner for all the footy matches involving the Weagles, but not when it was convenient.
lizzie @ #111 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 11:10 am
The ALP is a very different beast to NZ Labour.
The ALP is under the control of fossil fuel unions. It’s NOT progressive. It has resorted to Howard tactics with blatant cash bribery via childcare costs. The ALP is a small minded party controlled by out-dated organisations as well as neo-libs.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
8,456,653
Deaths:
225,222
– 57,327 new cases and 442 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Interesting place, oilprice.com. Thanks HH for highlighting it.
Oil tanker in the Caribbean:
Oct 19, 2020, 2:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A-Slow-Motion-Oil-Crisis-Is-Unfolding-In-The-Carribean.html
Dangers of a Biden/Harris win:
Oct 15, 2020, 7:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Biden-Presidency-Could-End-The-US-Oil-Boom.html
Baby boomers versus Millenials:
Oct 18, 2020, 6:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Majors-Stuck-Between-A-Rock-And-A-Hard-Place.html
Iran boots out Indians:
Oct 19, 2020, 12:30 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Boots-Out-India-From-Huge-Gas-Field-Development.html
Rex,
The NZ Labour party isn’t really different, it’s just that NZ doesn’t have any coal to dig up…
“The ALP is under the control of fossil fuel unions. ”
I admire the way that Jacinda Ardern has stared down the large fossil fuel unions of New Zealand. At least they are keeping their HUUGE reserves of coal and oil in the ground there. How courageous of her.
AlphaZero
“The NZ Labour party isn’t really different, it’s just that NZ doesn’t have any coal to dig up…”
I’d say the same. Rex has no idea.
Also Jacinda is a career politician, who cut her political teeth as a staffer to a previous PM. There are people who sneer at such a career path, but I think it’s served her well.
Shows just how little people know re NZ politics. Anyone who cares to do some research will know that NZ Labour face the same criticisms that Labor here does, that it is in the thrall of the neo liberals. Critics argue that Ardern talks a big game, but has delivered very little for the most vulnerable in her country.
Just because we have coal doesn’t mean we have to dig it up and burn/sell it while knowing it’s not an an economically and environmentally sound thing to do.
Anyone would think that the ALP is obliged to associate with the fossil fuel cartel.