Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8

Essential Research credits the federal Coalition with a slight lead, as more evidence emerges that Gladys Berejiklian’s embarrassment before ICAC has done her little harm with voters.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.

Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.

The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.

Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.

UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.

In other news:

• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.

• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.

• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,642 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8”

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  1. I see the Criminal-in-Chief is becoming more desperate. Accusing everyone else of being criminals. Is he expecting something from Barr soon?

    538 have an interesting article up showing that whilst older people and suburban white women are swinging against Trump, he has improved his standing amount at college educated whites. What does that tell us about education and whites and voting patterns?

    538 also note that Trump has improved his standing with younger blacks.

  2. Hey Taylormade,
    Nice beatup yesterday about Hep B, C and AIDS wrt Hotel Quarantine. Pity it turned out to be such an easily-deconstructed damp squib. You’ll have to do better if you want a job with the Liberal Party Comms team. 🙂

  3. 538 have an interesting article up showing that whilst older people and suburban white women are swinging against Trump, he has improved his standing amount at college educated whites. What does that tell us about education and whites and voting patterns?

    On the podcast I linked to the other day they said there was evidence of some Republicans coming back to Trump as the election draws nearer. Something that isn’t unexpected.

  4. Shellbell

    Yes, currently diverted (Oct).
    But then there’s the caveat about other states.

    The problem I have with the DHHS website is that it doesn’t provide details of dates, it just “updates”, which is how the argument about “who knew when” took off.

  5. Imagine what a load of crap the story must be if Fox News chose not to run with it.

    Mediaite has learned that Fox News was first approached by Rudy Giuliani to report on a tranche of files alleged to have come from Hunter Biden’s unclaimed laptop left at a Delaware computer repair shop, but that the news division chose not to run the story unless or until the sourcing and veracity of the emails could be properly vetted.

    With the general election just three weeks away, Giuliani ultimately brought the story to the New York Post, which shares the same owner, Rupert Murdoch. The tabloid has been exhaustively covering the contents of the laptop — which include everything from emails regarding Hunter Biden’s work for a Ukrainian company to personal photos of the recovering addict — with each morsel being amplified in the conservative media world, including on Fox News’ top-rated opinion programs. Thus far, the Fox’s News division has only been able to verify one email from the tranche leaked.

    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/exclusive-fox-news-passed-on-hunter-biden-laptop-story-over-credibility-concerns/

  6. “Herald Sun@theheraldsun·24m
    OPINION: Experts say Victorians have a one in a million chance of getting the virus, yet five million of us are still locked down, proving the government has lost sight of what it’s trying to achieve.”

    If there is a one in a million chance of Victorians getting Covid, then there must be about 130,000,000,000 Victorians, because over 20,000 have had it.

  7. Sohar @ #59 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 7:55 am

    “Herald Sun@theheraldsun·24m
    OPINION: Experts say Victorians have a one in a million chance of getting the virus, yet five million of us are still locked down, proving the government has lost sight of what it’s trying to achieve.”

    If there is a one in a million chance of Victorians getting Covid, then there must be about 130,000,000,000 Victorians, because over 20,000 have had it.

    Are these experts actually named and their field of expertise detailed?

  8. Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    18m
    Call me old fashioned, but this is disrespectful not only of a parliamentarian but of parliament and democracy.

  9. Sohar says:
    Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 8:55 am
    “Herald Sun@theheraldsun·24m
    OPINION: Experts say Victorians have a one in a million chance of getting the virus, yet five million of us are still locked down, proving the government has lost sight of what it’s trying to achieve.”

    ———–

    Waiting for the corrupt foreign own libs/nats propaganda media units explain ,why have Liberal party government states , New South Wales , South Australia , Tasmania close their borders to Victorians ?

  10. It’s Time @ #60 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:00 am

    Sohar @ #59 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 7:55 am

    “Herald Sun@theheraldsun·24m
    OPINION: Experts say Victorians have a one in a million chance of getting the virus, yet five million of us are still locked down, proving the government has lost sight of what it’s trying to achieve.”

    If there is a one in a million chance of Victorians getting Covid, then there must be about 130,000,000,000 Victorians, because over 20,000 have had it.

    Are these experts actually named and their field of expertise detailed?

    “Desperate Political Scum” in the “Gutter Press” with “Scummo’s Talking Points”?

  11. Which experts?
    What is their field of expertise?
    How was the probability of catching the Virus (10^-6) calculated?
    Is that the probability of catching it in a 24 hour period? In a year? Ever?
    Under what conditions does it apply? Lockdown? Normal?
    Where does it apply?

    About 40 million people in the World are known to have caught the virus. That suggests odds of at least 1/200 but that’s likely an understatement.

  12. A one in a million chance of Victorians getting Covid today, 1 in 100,000 tomorrow, 1 in 10,000 the day after and 1 in 1,000 the day after that.

    Does anybody else remember the short movie “Powers of Ten?”

  13. lizzie @ #57 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:01 am

    Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    18m
    Call me old fashioned, but this is disrespectful not only of a parliamentarian but of parliament and democracy.

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    I dunno Craig, but what I do know is that Labor has made itself so irrelevant that it invites this sort of deliberate psycho-war-nastiness from the killers.

  14. Victoria has reported two new Covid cases. The 14 day moving average is down to 6.4. The number of deaths, if any, has not been reported yet.

  15. I reckon that phones should be allowed. I also believe that any images, content or text on the phones is fair game for all to read.

    We have cameras all around the chamber, surely they could broadcast the members browsing habits…

  16. A one in a million chance of Victorians getting Covid today, 1 in 100,000 tomorrow, 1 in 10,000 the day after and 1 in 1,000 the day after that.

    Remember back in March when the number of cases was doubling every three or four days.

    1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024- (9 more entries) – over 1,000,000.

  17. mundo @ #62 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:11 am

    lizzie @ #57 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:01 am

    Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    18m
    Call me old fashioned, but this is disrespectful not only of a parliamentarian but of parliament and democracy.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow ugc”>” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    I dunno Craig, but what I do know is that Labor has made itself so irrelevant that it invites this sort of deliberate psycho-war-nastiness from the killers.

    The important thing of course is that Labor remain professional, calm, polite, quiet…and beige.
    That’ll show ’em.

  18. There is no longer widespread fidelity in science, in any endeavour and which includes the dismal science of economics. There are just too many examples now of people in all fields whose opinion can be bought for the right price, or whose fealty to one particular area, for example, Geology(ipso facto Coal), can be transmogrified into ‘expert opinion’ in another area, for example, Global Heating and Climate Change. I mean, Donald Trump has doctors on tap who are prepared to support his contention of being a perfect physical specimen, fcs! 🙄

  19. “I dunno Craig, but what I do know is that Labor has made itself so irrelevant that it invites this sort of deliberate psycho-war-nastiness from the killers.”

    Typical quisling response from Quasi-mundo.

  20. @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    19m
    I note all the media commentary about the mismanaged federal government NZ travel bubble is focusing on Victoria (because Dan bashing), when in fact travellers who unexpectedly turned up in SA and WA had to go into two weeks’ quarantine. Total farce.


    @TPythia
    ·
    7m
    Channel 9 today and #abcpm yesterday both saying Vic CHO Brett Sutton raised no issue re the travel bubble. THAT WAS BECAUSE VICTORIA WAS NOT INCLUDED IN IT, you idiots. Dishonest reporting! Expect that from 9 but @abcnews should know better. #auspol

    Also, he was not present at that discussion. Journos then questioned his schedule and demanded to see it.

    If only Morrison had the same attention!!

  21. Kakuru @ #76 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    “I dunno Craig, but what I do know is that Labor has made itself so irrelevant that it invites this sort of deliberate psycho-war-nastiness from the killers.”

    Typical quisling response from Quasi-mundo.

    You can almost picture him drooling over the keyboard as he types that sort of guff. I love the way he just ignores the reality of the Coalition:

    I would suggest he read Sun Tzu but he probably believes that’s only for Girly Men, not the hairy-chested (probably transferred from his pubic area as well), ‘Scrooter’.

  22. @BreakfastNews
    · 1h
    Surging COVID-19 cases in Europe should “silence the critics of Victoria’s lockdown”, says @normanswan

    “Lockdown is the only way that you can actually control the virus when it is out of control.”

  23. ““Does the Leaning Tower of Pisa lean left or right?”

    It leans to the south; away from the cathedral next door. As you walk into the square from the main street it leans to your left. It is pretty pronounced; you can’t miss it.

  24. This is funny. As if someone with the authority of the POTUS couldn’t have demanded a bigger chair. Perhaps Trump’s ego wouldn’t admit it was too small for his bum.

    Brendan Karet @bad_takes
    NY Post’s Miranda Devine: Trump’s town hall was a “set-up from the start” because they gave him a “tiny” chair that “could barely fit half a buttock, let alone a whole one”

  25. lizzie @ #79 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 9:42 am

    @BreakfastNews
    · 1h
    Surging COVID-19 cases in Europe should “silence the critics of Victoria’s lockdown”, says @normanswan

    “Lockdown is the only way that you can actually control the virus when it is out of control.”

    It must really chafe the apologists for Morrison at the ABC when Dr Swan says stuff like this. It’s totally against the ‘Dan Boo!’ narrative.

  26. Sorry if this has already been posted. Says a lot about Morrison’s attitude.

    Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    ·
    8h
    In the Qld lockdown, and a bit after, I did a lot of stuff organising Qld’s community sector to work with the Covid health program – the Hillsong mob were one of the least cooperative community organisations I experienced. They acted like it was all about them, not their people

  27. https://twitter.com/VicGovDHHS/status/1318328050552086529
    Yesterday there was 1 new case & the loss of 0 lives reported. 1 other case, who has a Vic address, is quarantining interstate having returned from OS. In Melb, 14 day average and cases with unknown source are down from yesterday. https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/averages-easing-restrictions-covid-19
    10:07 AM · Oct 20, 2020

    https://twitter.com/VicGovAu/status/1318324807813992449
    Victorian Government@VicGovAu
    Open Data now available.
    Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers by location are now available on DataVic. Access the data here: https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/victorian-coronavirus-data
    #OpenData #COVID19 @Data_Vic @VicGovDHHS
    9:55 AM · Oct 20, 2020

  28. lizzie @ #83 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    Sorry if this has already been posted. Says a lot about Morrison’s attitude.

    Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    ·
    8h
    In the Qld lockdown, and a bit after, I did a lot of stuff organising Qld’s community sector to work with the Covid health program – the Hillsong mob were one of the least cooperative community organisations I experienced. They acted like it was all about them, not their people

    It’s all about the spondulicks with Brian Houston. He may as well be using, ‘The Art of the Deal’ or, ‘How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying’ as his bible as much as the real thing. That’s why he’s whining so much about wanting to have the number of punters who walk through his doors increased from 100 to 300. He must be hurting badly in the hip pocket nerve.

  29. On Covid figures and hotspots in smallish areas in reasonable proximity to each other in Europe.

    Daughter lives in Bavaria, not far from Austrian border. Had a brief message from her this morning telling me that local council area next to theirs had gone into hard lockdown. This area includes such towns as Berchtesgaden, Teisendorf, Bad Reichenhall (for those of you who have visited the German/Austrian Alps). Daughter lives in local council area based on Traunstein. In the former area, where Covid is considered out of control the ratio of cases to population is 252/100,000 population. In Traunstein it is currently 33/100,000. Distance between areas approximately 50 -60 kms.

  30. Lol. 🙂

    Queues at the hairdresser.
    “The music at Biba salon in St Kilda on Monday morning can barely be heard over the phones. They’ve been ringing nonstop as desperate Melburnians try to snatch up any booking they can – for most, it’ll be their first haircut in months … Biba Salon is not alone – hairdressers around Melbourne say they are now booked out for months. Alyx Hitchins, the owner of Forma Salon in Elwood, says her email system nearly crashed during the premier’s Sunday press conference.”

    GUARDIAN AUSTRALIA

  31. Bennelong Lurker @ #88 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 10:13 am

    On Covid figures and hotspots in smallish areas in reasonable proximity to each other in Europe.

    Daughter lives in Bavaria, not far from Austrian border. Had a brief message from her this morning telling me that local council area next to theirs had gone into hard lockdown. This area includes such towns as Berchtesgaden, Teisendorf, Bad Reichenhall (for those of you who have visited the German/Austrian Alps). Daughter lives in local council area based on Traunstein. In the former area, where Covid is considered out of control the ratio of cases to population is 252/100,000 population. In Traunstein it is currently 33/100,000. Distance between areas approximately 50 -60 kms.

    Hence the 25km “Dan” distance that so upsets the Aspen Agents.

  32. William,

    If you are immune to sandflies, immediately sell up in WA, volunteer your body for sale for scientific research out of Otago University, and make yourself an instant millionaire.

    At their worst, in the most intense sandfly-ridden spots of the West Coast, entomologists have recorded a bite rate of up to 1000-an-hour. In a couple of minutes, that could be hundreds of little bites, on your arms, neck, face, feet.

    Sandflies, on a minute level, rip and tear the flesh to open the skin and access blood, using anti-coagulating qualities of saliva to feed. It’s histamine that causes the itching and swelling.

    The West Coast of the South Island, particularly Fiordland, is notorious.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/88169578/sandflies-new-zealands-bloodsucking-summer-nightmare-actually-its-yearround

  33. rhombat:

    Indeed. So unfortunate for them.

    Thinking seems to be that the more popular tourist area around Berchtesgaden drew holidaymakers from various parts within and outside Germany during the recent long summer/school holidays and this has contributed to the larger no. of cases. Masks of course still compulsory in most public areas, although daughter told (a couple of weeks ago) of a woman in a local supermarket whose mask was a tasteful yellow and turquoise crocheted number.

  34. Socrates, I reckon the “Get on the Beers” song will be the summer anthem of 2020-2021.

    If we are back to “Normal” all across the nation, it will be because Dan took this thing seriously from day 1…

  35. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    24m
    “In easily the funniest account of yesterday’s tiff between Andrews & Frydenberg, The Oz’s Joe Kelly & Remy Varga “report” that, “Mr Frydenberg is a passionate Victorian whose wife and children have been locked down while he delivered the COVID recovery budget in Canberra”

    Is this a hint that Joshie’s anger stems from sexual frustration?!

  36. Dr Sally KoalaKoala
    @slsandpet
    ·
    53m
    again!!! Getting stranded Aussies home was just ANOTHER ANNOUNCEMENT
    ***

    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    · 17h
    This is astounding.

    Home Affairs confirms it has *no plans* to prioritise #strandedAussies over business visa holders. They’ve had *no direction* from the Morrison Govt.

    Why is @ScottMorrisonMP leaving #strandedAussies behind?

    Questions by my colleague @Louise_Pratt #Estimates

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