Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8

Essential Research credits the federal Coalition with a slight lead, as more evidence emerges that Gladys Berejiklian’s embarrassment before ICAC has done her little harm with voters.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.

Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.

The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.

Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.

UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.

In other news:

• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.

• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.

• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,642 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8”

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  1. Nicholas @ #1597 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    Six Greens candidates have been elected to the ACT Legislative Assembly. This is an excellent development for the ACT. I’m looking forward to seeing some more Greens representatives in the Queensland Parliament after next Saturday’s election.

    I did some doorknocking for Michael Berkman’s campaign today. I was in the suburb of Indooroopilly. It was heartening to hear how Michael’s performance in his first term has resonated strongly in this suburb. Unlike the ALP and the LNP the Greens refuse corporate donations. Michael has been highly effective at mobilizing community campaigns for infrastructure upgrades and against socially harmful private development projects such as a proposed zipline company on Mt Coot-tha.

    It is remarkable that the ALP and the LNP have been making some commitments on infrastructure and services that they had been dragging their feet on for decades – they are upping their game because of Michael’s presence in the Queensland Parliament.

    Why would you vote for a group of ideologues who can’t deliver on anything they say with regards to infrastructure?

    It’s a self indulgent wank!

  2. BK

    Best you don’t see more of the comments below it, then. Gushing about the best father and husband, our greatest leader, how he never pretends to be anything other than himself, etc. Vomitous.

  3. Europe and the US a spiralling into the 3rd wave. Let’s hope our border controls hold, and they aren’t lifted too soon by DaggyDad..

    NEW: Polish President Andrzej Duda has tested positive for coronavirus, but is doing fine, officials say

  4. lizzie says:
    Saturday, October 24, 2020 at 3:19 pm
    I do hope Swanny is wrong about this.

    Wayne Swan
    · 7h
    Looks like the weight of Palmers big spend, preference deals & tax lies backing in the LNP is threatening Palaszczuk. Labor has a tough fight ahead.#auspol

    Palmer is a scourge on democracy and humanity as a whole.

    Here’s hoping that Labor can withstand this malevolent influence in Queensland and after the election be in a position to put Palmer in his place (as the WA Premier has done).

    The ACT and NZ are very fortunate that characters like Palmer and Murdoch have limited influence in their jurisdictions.

  5. With the largest rise of C.19 since the start of the pandemic, Trump says, “We’ve turned the curve”, spreading his false message to a gathering of Floridian seniors, the most likely to become infected. That he’s still competitive is mind-boggling. As it’s said, only in America.

  6. Re Friendly Jordie’s earlier tweet, I always thought Daryl sounded a bit gay.

    As our Premier Gladys would say, “Not that there’s anything wrong with that.”

    But it does lead one to wonder just what the relationship between himself and herself was all about.

  7. Confessions

    Jeanette Francis, better known as Jan Fran, is an Australian journalist and presenter. She has worked with the Special Broadcasting Service (SBS), and served as co-host of current affairs and satire TV program The Feed and the podcast The Few Who Do alongside Marc Fennell.

  8. Bushfire Bill @ #6497 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 2:02 pm


    How is grandson?

    Not as well as we would like. Not as bad as he was earlier in the week.

    Unfortunately he hasn’t eaten a meal since yesterday week. A couple of spoons of rice, some drink, water… But that’s it. Any more brings on nausea.

    We’ve been seeing a GP and had ultrasound scans done yesterday. Although the medical imaging service promised a fast turnaround to have the opinion ready for 4pm yesterday afternoon, they didn’t deliver. We waited in the GP’s office for an hour after the medical imaging people said the opinion would be “15 minutes”, but when we rang at 5.15pm to see what the extra delay was, they’d knocked off for the weekend and their phones were on night switch. Bastards.

    He’s weak and dizzy, but at least not on the floor writhing in agony. Very quiet. A little grumpy, but that’s understandable.

    Hasn’t sat on a toilet for 8 days either.

    The GP doesn’t think it’s serious (as in “life threatening”) but there is obviously something more than an upset stomach going on.

    Monday is another day. In the meantime, we check on him hourly. Any more often than that and he gets a bit short with us. He is not having fun.

    I suspect the ultrasound is looking for gall bladder disease, however I think he probably needs a gastroscopy to exclude a peptic ulcer (and Helicobacter pylori disease). The proton pump inhibitor he has been put on may help the gastritis, but are unlikely to cure the disease. Unless he is actively bleeding or has features of perforation, he would probably not be admitted to hospital (even in Newcastle), however I doubt that a “semi-elective” ‘scope is possible via the public system at Taree. I would take him to Newcastle and see what could be done via the public system.

  9. Rhwombat, thanks for your interest and suggestions.

    He has a referral for a gastroscopy, but we’re waiting ’til he feels he can cope with a tube down his throat. You are also correct about the object of the ultrasound session: gall bladder investigation.

    First thing is to see if any results from the ultrasound. Hopefully Monday. The nurse wielding the ultrasound wand was asked during the procedure if she saw anything concerning, and she said no, for what that’s worth.

    He had a bowl of BB’s Special Mashed Potato tonight and seems to have kept it down OK. I talked him into coming on a walk this arvo down along the lake, too. He chirped up appreciably while walking, and said afterwards that he really enjoyed getting out.

    So, better today than yesterday. But geez, you have to be bloody sick to get into Taree hospital nowadays.

  10. Victoria says Saturday, October 24, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    There was some mention of Matthew Knott earlier. I didnt realise he had a fall in New York.
    He is lucky to be alive.

    Back in 1986 my brother fell 18 metres down a mine shaft. He ended fracturing his ankle, coccyx, L3 and L2 vertebrae and crushing his L1. He had no spinal damage, but was about half an inch shorter afterwards. He also had abrasions on his arms where he stuck them out to slow his fall.

    I never knew the full story behind it until his funeral last month.

  11. Anyone interested in US politics might be interested in T.Greg Doucette twitter account where he documents videos of police brutality . Today’s was one of Police confiscating masks from a polling station!! (Sorry, lack the skill to transfer clip)
    Where the US goes, Oz follows?

  12. Whilst I note KRudd7x7’s petition for a royal commission on truth in media, I reckon he’s not thinking big enough.

    Get the signatures instead for making Canberra redundant by using Wellington instead, by going back to the days where New Holland and Statenlandt weren’t thought of[] as separate.

    It has a treaty with its pre-colonial people.

    It even has the All Blacks, Air New Zealand …, and a compassionate/ kick ass PM.

    Onshore work towards a left of centre coalition, unless you like the sound of PM Frytheplanet from 2022, though given Wuflu wave 3, climate crisis, society‘s inequality/ economy on growth rather than sustainability …

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