Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8

Essential Research credits the federal Coalition with a slight lead, as more evidence emerges that Gladys Berejiklian’s embarrassment before ICAC has done her little harm with voters.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.

Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.

The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.

Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.

UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.

In other news:

• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.

• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.

• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,642 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8”

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  1. $250,000,000.00 without a chit? Poor innocent Gladys! What kind of cad would force an innocent young convent gel into signing off on an untraceable quarter of a billion dollars in slush funds to Coalition electorates? Someone must be held accountable! The CEO of Australia Post won’t be able to worm her way out of this one!

  2. United States :

    Coronavirus Cases:
    8,746,953

    Deaths:
    229,284

    – 81,210 new cases and 903 new deaths in the United States

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Dena Grayson, MD, PhD @DrDenaGrayson

    Trump’s failure in a single photo.

    “Uncontrolled spread” of the #coronavirus in nearly every state with the US shattering records for new daily #COVID19 cases the past 2 days.

    More than 229,000 dead Americans with MANY more deaths to come over the next few months

  3. Late Riser @ #1530 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 11:27 am

    There is a solace in fitness. I remember well a handful of years of very high work stress and how the gym helped.

    Just for clarity L R, my little rant was aimed at the extreme fitness and appearance fetishists. As a past member of the middle aged men in lycra club, I empathise about keeping fit, and the wellbeing it brings.

  7. Also, my earlier comment that changes in managing covid, “should now be to tactics more suited to the new situation” also applies to re-opening State borders and other ‘aspirations’.
    The heading:

    Queensland agrees to border opening ‘aspiration’

    The content:

    “There is a national aspiration to look at December [for reopening], that will depend on the health advice,” the Premier said during a campaign stop

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-agrees-to-border-opening-aspiration-20201023-p56840.html

    That this was reported with air-quotes signals the politics, rather than acknowledging there is a change possible when the situation improves.

  9. Socrates
    Would simply point out that Michelle is a well known long time Republican then its up to the person if they want to believe anything she says.

  11. It’s only just dawned on you

    Retweeted
    Paul Syvret
    @PSyvret
    ·
    1h
    I’m beginning to think the sole reason the Liberal Party exists is to funnel huge sums of public $$$ to its scabrous mates:
    Premier boss pockets hefty bonus after claiming $70 million in JobKeeper
    Premier Investments chief executive Mark McInnes has pocketed $5.4 million in pay despite the retailer claiming tens of millions in JobKeeper subsidies.
    smh.com.au

  14. From the comments on the Age blog.

    Peta Credlin trying to big note again about matters that are being handled by the board. Endless statements that Dan bats away with commonsense replies.

  16. Daily Dose of Brexit:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/23/uk-presses-for-use-of-faster-passport-gates-at-eu-airports-post-brexit

    The [British] government is seeking continued use by UK nationals of the automatic e-gates used by EU nationals at airports and Eurostar terminals. The move is seen by the European commission as an attempt to keep Britons in faster lanes rather than having to queue up with the rest of the world after the end of the transition period. Studies suggest the loss of access to automatic gates and the need for extra passport checks could delay Britons by an extra hour as they move through some European airports.

    The problem though is this.

    “The Schengen border code is restrictive on this,” says one internal EU document seen by the Guardian.

    What’s puzzling is that if true, why is Britain bothering with this? A bargaining chip for a different concession? Setting up bad foreigners to cop the blame? Appearing disingenuous in the final days of negotiations surely would only hurt your position.

    Something else I’ve noticed is that the amount of press devoted to Brexit has dwindled. Perhaps it’s Trump. Perhaps it’s covid. Perhaps it weariness. But interest has fallen away.

  17. For those from NSW, is friendlyjordies being provocative here?

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    friendlyjordies
    @friendlyjordies
    .
    @Don_Harwin
    were you ever in a relationship with Daryl Maguire?
    12:36 PM · Oct 24, 2020·Twitter for Android

  21. BB

    How is grandson?

    Not as well as we would like. Not as bad as he was earlier in the week.

    Unfortunately he hasn’t eaten a meal since yesterday week. A couple of spoons of rice, some drink, water… But that’s it. Any more brings on nausea.

    We’ve been seeing a GP and had ultrasound scans done yesterday. Although the medical imaging service promised a fast turnaround to have the opinion ready for 4pm yesterday afternoon, they didn’t deliver. We waited in the GP’s office for an hour after the medical imaging people said the opinion would be “15 minutes”, but when we rang at 5.15pm to see what the extra delay was, they’d knocked off for the weekend and their phones were on night switch. Bastards.

    He’s weak and dizzy, but at least not on the floor writhing in agony. Very quiet. A little grumpy, but that’s understandable.

    Hasn’t sat on a toilet for 8 days either.

    The GP doesn’t think it’s serious (as in “life threatening”) but there is obviously something more than an upset stomach going on.

    Monday is another day. In the meantime, we check on him hourly. Any more often than that and he gets a bit short with us. He is not having fun.

  22. Linda Reynolds was part of the trio along with Ian MacDonald and Barry O’Sullivan who tried to work over Justin Gleeson SC when he was solicitor general.

    I think they write a report on him and said he should be referred to a disciplinary body for disclosing his instructions from George Brandis or something stupid.

    She is as thick as shit.

  24. BB

    So sorry you and grandson are being put through this torture. Waiting for the result must be so stressful as well as painful. Being you I’m sure you are documenting the whole.

  26. shellbell @ #1572 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 2:05 pm

    Linda Reynolds was part of the trio along with Ian MacDonald and Barry O’Sullivan who tried to work over Justin Gleeson SC when he was solicitor general.

    I think they write a report on him and said he should be referred to a disciplinary body for disclosing his instructions from George Brandis or something stupid.

    She is as thick as shit.

    Isn’t Linda Reynolds ex-army? That is no doubt why she was given the job.

  28. BB
    Just cut up some little bits of apple for him if he can manage it without getting nausea.
    Will get the bowels moving at least.

  29. BB

    Sympathy and best wishes on your grandson. The privatising of health ancilliary services stinks for so many reasons.

    Xanthippe had to have an urgent (non-life threatening) procedure after a check up a few weeks ago. The doctor (here in Adelaide) checked her in immediately and she was operated on in the new RAH that evening. The (public sector) doctor was terrific – he didn’t go home till it was sorted out. All going fine now.

  30. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/20/essential-research-2pp-coalition-48-labor-45-undecided-8/comment-page-31/#comment-3499705

    You have to find people/ channels that they have a relationship with and trust, otherwise you are not getting past their filters.

    And of course on social media, people that look at a post could be tempted into reading posts that collaborative filtering based (people that liked X, as a percentage then do Y etc).

    Sometimes something shocking will get their attention and might hold their interest, until the next thing comes along, or you can quickly get the interest moving to some desire for action.

    I so remember the West Wing with the board with our messages, stuff that comes up, and their messages …, I guess.

  32. Thanks Victoria and Lizzie.

    It IS extremely frustrating up here. Everywhere you go healthwize is bottlenecked. Everything has a wait time. The local doctors know full well they are at the apex of a seller’s market. It matters little how sick you are, you get in The Queue with everybody else. No exceptions! They are pitiless. Their attitude is to blame the victim.

    The pensioners have gotten used to it, and the young people (as a rule) don’t get too seriously ill. So, when you produce a sick young person, the system is inadequate. Hospitalization, for observation, is out of the question. There is one bed for every 2 potential patients. Just go home and suffer till we can fit you in, next week. If you’re waiting for scans and they don’t arrive as promised, sorry (not really sorry). Come back next week. You want an urgent appointment? Not possible. Everyone’s in the queue.

  35. What’s annoying is that we have a big, fat private hospital in Forster (only 25 Minutes away), who (I’ve heard) are even more pitiless than the public one in Taree (70 minutes away, plus three hours wait time).

  36. BB sorry to hear that grandson is still crook.

    A healthy 21 year old shouldn’t be laid low for 8 days

    When my father had malaise in Tahlee for 1 month , he was getting weaker and weaker until he collapsed at Dr, the ambulance called and he was taken to the Mater. He died a month later, lung failure, so lingering at home had done no harm and he didn’t end up in Taree

    I reckon you should take the lad on a shopping trip to Newcastle tomorrow

  37. BB your frustration is very understandable and I assume you are talking about medical services in Forster and/or Taree. For what its worth we (ie my extended family) have much more positive experiences with public and private health facilities in Maitland/Newcastle.
    Edit: sorry just saw you post from 2mins ago

  38. When we were in Sydney he had something similar (come to think of it). He was about 15 then.

    We took him to Ryde hospital ED. He was admitted instantly, put on a drip and spent a night under observation.

    Her Indoors had a fall another time, dislocating an elbow. Took her to Ryde again. A professor of orthopedics, a registrar and two nurses attended to her. She was discharged within 90 minutes, fixed, after having cat scans and the arm restored to its socket.

    Up here it’s “Tell ‘im ‘e’s dreamin’!”

  39. Bushfire Bill
    Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 2:02 pm
    Comment #1571

    I belong to the school where what you don’t know can’t hurt you and therefore I refrained from asking about your grandson.

    Not to put too fine Sharpie point to the saga – what you are describing is a shit situation –

    What does your true love have to say about this situation. As previously stated I would have one of my family get me to the John Hunter Hospital although your grandson may be resistant I suspect that by now he must be desperately worried and possibly in fear of his life.

    When you first raised the subject I Googled Taree Hospital and Taree Imagining – where the blurbs described vast capabilities. Sadly the capabilities with minimal staff and Monday to Friday services only exist in name.

    Suggestion – get the collective arses in gear and take a road trip. I want very much to hear of a positive resolution to this saga.

  43. I hope so too Lizzie. There is an awful lot of LNP money being sloshed around the outer suburbs of the Brisbane southside if the corflutes are any evidence. Thoroughfares where you see nothing else, with the caveat that this is the bible belt of the city.

  44. Jake Tapper@jaketapper·
    35m
    So far on Friday, there have been 82,050 COVID-19 cases per Johns Hopkins University data. This is now the highest single day reporting since the pandemic began.

    October 23: 82,050 cases
    July 16: 77,362 cases
    July 24: 73,362 cases

    Is anyone surprised American is now having a third wave of coronavirus only a day after Trump said the virus was under control?

    #ETTD

  45. Well worth a read.When I first got Foxtel in the late 90’s those first two guys mentioned and a fleet of other think tankers were on high rotation pushing their idea. After 9/11 they were wall to wall and the nuttery they had been expousing a few years before started being rolled out by Dubya,Cheyney and Rummy.
    .
    FOREIGN AFFAIRS › Annotations
    U.S. Foreign Policy Never Recovered From the War on Terror
    MATTHEW DUSS OCTOBER 22, 2020

    In a 1996 essay in Foreign Affairs, the conservative authors William Kristol and Robert Kagan proposed a U.S. foreign policy of “benevolent global hegemony.” Scoffing at former President John Quincy Adams’s maxim that America “goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy,” they asked, “But why not? ……………………………..he last two decades have revealed the folly of this hubris. With the declaration of its global “war on terror” after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States went abroad in search of monsters and ended up midwifing new ones—from terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (or ISIS), born in the prisons of U.S.-occupied Iraq; to destabilization and deepening sectarianism across the Middle East; to racist authoritarian movements in Europe and in the United States that feed—and feed off of—the fear of refugees fleeing those regional conflicts. Advocates of the war on terror believed that nationalist chauvinism, which sometimes travels under the name “American exceptionalism,” could be stoked at a controlled burn to sustain American hegemony. Instead, and predictably, toxic ultranationalism burned out of control. Today, the greatest security threat to the United States comes not from any terrorist group, or from any great power, but from domestic political dysfunction. The election of Donald Trump as president was a product and accelerant of that dysfunction—but not its cause. The environment for his political rise was prepared over a decade and a half of xenophobic, messianic Washington warmongering, with roots going back into centuries of white supremacist politics……
    https://outline.com/stat1k/AfhjfX.html

  46. A long extract. Sorry.

    Coal advocates have always used the excuse “if we don’t supply it, someone else will.”
    Queensland teenagers launch legal challenge of Adani mine

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2020/10/22/queensland-teenagers-launch-legal-challenge-adani-mine/160336892310593?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Saturday%20Briefing%20324&utm_content=The%20Saturday%20Briefing%20324%20CID_fea8b76624e1099563df2ce1c053a126&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=Anna%20Krien

    “Some people like to call the market substitution argument the drug dealer’s defence,” says Wilkinson, “because the law would never accept it … if a drug dealer rocked up to court and said, ‘Me selling ice is not causing community harm because it is purely demand driven … and whether I exist or not, that harm would still occur.’ Nobody – whether it’s the pub test, a politician or a judge – nobody is going to accept that argument in criminal law.”
    …

    Hunt’s first “variable”, that new coal could keep other coal in the ground, is, according to Wilkinson, just as insidious as the “if we don’t dig it up, someone else will” market substitution argument. “It is this smokescreen that climate change is death by a thousand cuts – that it’s no one’s fault, it’s everyone’s fault, it’s too hard, this might replace this, this might replace that, let’s not apportion blame,” she says. “Well, we say it’s not too uncertain. We can apportion blame.”

    To build the teenagers’ case, Wilkinson asked Bill Hare, Paul Burke and Tim Buckley a range of questions to test the plausibility of the market substitution argument. Specifically, she wanted to know if it was possible to attribute the effect of the anticipated emissions stemming from the Carmichael project on the Great Barrier Reef, which the Environment minister is required to protect.

    The result of Hare, Burke and Buckley’s work is a staggering, cogent and at times overwhelming compilation of expert evidence. The three reports, says Wilkinson, provide Ley with strong legal grounds to revoke approval for the Carmichael mine and rail project under section 145 of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC Act), which allows the minister to act on new evidence.

    Most significant is the finding by Paul Burke, an associate professor and energy economist at the Australian National University, that the market substitution assumption in the case of the Carmichael project is “implausible”. Rather, he writes, “it is much more likely that the extraction of coal from the mine would lead to a net increase in emissions”.

    Burke lists key factors such as price effect, when more coal on the market cheapens the resource and leads to an overall increase in consumption; the likely displacement of energy sources with lower emissions; the emissions in development and transportation; the consequences of opening up the Galilee Basin; and the diversion of resources from low-emissions projects.

    Perhaps most telling is what Burke refers to as the “signalling effect”. Carmichael, he writes, “would mean that both Australia and the project participants are acting in a way that is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement”. Not only does this undermine the global response to contain climate change, he continues, it encourages others to do the same.

    Financial analyst Tim Buckley, of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, states that two neighbouring coal projects, China Stone and Hyde Park, must be factored into Carmichael emissions estimates, because both will benefit immensely from the approval precedents set by the project. He quotes former Liberal politician Ian Macfarlane, chief executive of the Queensland Resources Council, who referred to the Carmichael project in June last year as the “icebreaker that will lay down those baselines and will provide the infrastructure” for mining in the Galilee Basin.

    But it’s here that Bill Hare, an adjunct professor and climate scientist at Murdoch University, does something interesting. In his evidence, Hare estimates total carbon dioxide emissions from the three mines would amount to nearly 6 per cent of the remaining allowable emissions if we want to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

    At these levels, Hare estimates emissions from the Carmichael, China Stone and Hyde Park mines would see somewhere between 13,908 and 17,908 square kilometres of the Great Barrier Reef severely damaged or lost.

  47. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    When the Conman for Cook has had a rough week you can always expect him to facebook with one of his 4 rotating scenarios his consultants workshopped for him

    All of them nauseating.

    This week it’s Silly Relatable Hubby + Sharkies

    Note also how 500 comments have been censored

  48. Six Greens candidates have been elected to the ACT Legislative Assembly. This is an excellent development for the ACT. I’m looking forward to seeing some more Greens representatives in the Queensland Parliament after next Saturday’s election.

    I did some doorknocking for Michael Berkman’s campaign today. I was in the suburb of Indooroopilly. It was heartening to hear how Michael’s performance in his first term has resonated strongly in this suburb. Unlike the ALP and the LNP the Greens refuse corporate donations. Michael has been highly effective at mobilizing community campaigns for infrastructure upgrades and against socially harmful private development projects such as a proposed zipline company on Mt Coot-tha.

    It is remarkable that the ALP and the LNP have been making some commitments on infrastructure and services that they had been dragging their feet on for decades – they are upping their game because of Michael’s presence in the Queensland Parliament.

  49. John Lithgow on satire.

    For one thing, satire tends to preach to the choir. The laughter at Trump and company isn’t coming from his base. Their satire of choice is Trump’s cloddish sense of humor, such as it is, on display during his political pep rallies. To the extent his followers are even aware of my books, their tone of dismissive snark only angers them.

    This leads to a second source of my ambivalence: Satire changes almost no one’s mind. It is cathartic, cleansing and essential. It throws a glaring spotlight on social outrages and makes them live on more vividly in collective memory. But it’s rarely transformative.

    A couple of great comedians have succinctly illustrated my point.

    Peter Cook was the darkest and arguably the funniest member of the 1960s English revue Beyond the Fringe. When he founded a London comedy venue called The Establishment Club, Cook declared to the press that he wanted it to resemble “those wonderful Berlin cabarets which did so much to stop the rise of Hitler.”

    Then there is Kate McKinnon’s far more rueful take on the same harsh truth. She opened “Saturday Night Live” days after Hillary Clinton’s shocking defeat in the 2016 election. After spending months performing her hilarious spoof of Clinton, McKinnon sat at a piano and sang Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” in a rendition suffused with heartbreak and regret.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/23/skewering-trump-is-delicious-fun-i-cant-shake-my-case-satirists-dilemma/?arc404=true

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