Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8

Essential Research credits the federal Coalition with a slight lead, as more evidence emerges that Gladys Berejiklian’s embarrassment before ICAC has done her little harm with voters.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.

Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.

The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.

Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.

UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.

In other news:

• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.

• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.

• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,642 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8”

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  1. Any lingering doubts about Gladys Berejiklian’s judgment were put to rest yesterday after a sleazy interview with shock jock Kyle Sandilands.

    She obviously has none.

    Forget her political acumen over corruption allegations, or even her personal life choices — she’s now appears to be lacking even basic common sense as she desperately courts the sympathy vote.

    Our lovelorn heroine, emboldened after her heart-wrenching puff piece in the Murdoch Sunday papers, spent yesterday reprising her role of wronged woman live on Sydney radio — all while protesting how private she really is.

    First up was 2GB’s Ben Fordham oozing sympathy. Gladys obliged by reprising her best lines, except for one adlib claiming disgraced MP Daryl Maguire was never actually her boyfriend.

    Which begs the question: what exactly was he to her if not a boyfriend or lover?

    This inconsistency is now vexing everyone from lawyers, warning of the dire legal consequences of the term “intimate”, to the increasingly weary NSW voters who simply want to know if she bonked him or not.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/10/20/gladys-berejiklian-kyle-sandilands/

  5. From the Guardian live.

    The US supreme court decision to not pause a ruling from the Pennsylvania supreme court extending the deadline for absentee ballots in the state is a hugely consequential ruling that will likely mean thousands more votes are counted in one of the most critical swing states in the election.

    The ruling is a win for Democrats, who sought the extension in state court, and a loss for Republicans, who had asked the US supreme court to intervene.

    Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas all said they would have granted the Republican request.

    Gorsuch & Kavanaugh are Trump plants. No prize for guessing which way Barrett would have gone.

  7. a more salacious excerpt from that Crikey piece….probably will send GladysB’s approval rating further through the roof.

    ‘Enter Sandilands. A quick google will throw up a litany of salacious remarks. Last month he was found to have breached decency standards in the broadcasting code with offensive comments about the Virgin Mary.

    Then there was last week’s gem when he said he always thought Berejiklian was “a mad lesbian”.
    Obviously the perfect choice for an interview with a serious premier in the midst of a sensitive sex and corruption scandal.

    Indeed, Kyle and his co-hosts were terribly excited she chose to come on their show, gushing about her “getting her freak on”. There was sniggering with her about “secret sex being the best sex”, while at one stage he claimed to have much in common with her, having had sex with seven of his co-workers at a Perth radio station.

    “That’s a record I can’t break,” Berejiklian quipped.

    Wait, there’s more. The premier, who was once offended to be asked by Fordham whether she ever had an abortion, was grilled by Sandilands and friends about whether she’d ever “dabbled” in same=sex relationships.

    “No” she replied coolly, before quoting Seinfeld: “not that there’s anything wrong with that.”
    Classy stuff.

  8. This blood sugar business is a conundrum. The actual machine that does the reading from the blood soaked test strip can’t be an issue – there can be no risk on cross contamination with that; it’s a one way process. Once the finger is pricked and the blood extracted there is no going back to that puncture site.

    It’s the finger lancing where things must be under question. Assuming a clean lancet is used each time, shirley, what must have happened is that they have used a lancing device with multiple lancets in an internal drum – see video below – and gone from person to person. The risk would then be that the new ‘clean’ lancet could be contaminated by previously used lancets as they use the same portal to project, and then retract.

    https://youtu.be/Z-EP31Xy6PY

    This is all conjecture on my part.

  9. Rex Douglas:

    Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 12:53 pm

    [‘It has resorted to Howard tactics with blatant cash bribery via childcare costs.’]

    Tell that to the parents who find the child-care subsidy cost-prohibitive.

  10. ItzaDream @ #158 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 1:46 pm

    This blood sugar business is a conundrum. The actual machine that does the reading from the blood soaked test strip can’t be an issue – there can be no risk on cross contamination with that; it’s a one way process. Once the finger is pricked and the blood extracted there is no going back to that puncture site.

    It’s the finger lancing where things must be under question. Assuming a clean lancet is used each time, shirley, what must have happened is that they have used a lancing device with multiple lancets in an internal drum – see video below – and gone from person to person. The risk would then be that the new ‘clean’ lancet could be contaminated by previously used lancets as they use the same portal to project, and then retract.

    https://youtu.be/Z-EP31Xy6PY

    This is all conjecture on my part.

    We have been diabetics for a fair while, and with only one of the lancing devices we have used was it easy and obvious how to replace the needle.
    We have the one above and it is fiddly and not that obvious how to turn the rondel to access a new needle. 6 needles in the rondel and they come (to us) in a box of only 5 rondels.
    I can certainly see where this may have easily gone wrong.

  11. The current approach to determining annual funding for the integrity agencies presents threats to their independent status,” the report concluded.

    “The report argues these risks are not mitigated sufficiently under the current financial arrangements.”

    Says the Auditor General, handing down her report, a week after Gladys’s star turn.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-20/icac-report-finds-independence-at-risk-from-premiers-funding/12785712

    Reading Mungo’s write up on the whole sorry business, the word that stood out when talking about the Premier was *arrogant*, and ain’t that the case. It’s been middle finger (aka the money finger – there’s a joke there for later) from her from the start.

  12. I have tried to piece the timeline together from a scattered report in the Guardian on Brexit negotiations.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/19/brexit-gove-praises-constructive-move-as-eu-agrees-to-intensify-talks

    It started encouragingly:

    Both the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, had said on Friday that they were willing to compromise on the most contentious issues of domestic subsidy control and EU access to British fishing waters.

    The Guardian notes:

    Barnier’s statement appeared to meet all the requests No 10 had been making as the price of new talks.

    Then Gove told MPs:

    “[the EU] refused to negotiate seriously for [the] last month or so”, leading to Johnson’s decision to end talks last Friday unless the EU came back with “fundamental challenges”.

    and then pivoted to:

    “Even while I have been at the dispatch box it has been reported that there has been a constructive move on the part of the EU and I welcome that … obviously we need to work on the basis of the proposed intensification they propose. And I prefer to look forward in optimism than look back in anger.” … [he] added: “If there has been movement, and it seems there as been today, then no one would welcome it more than me.”

    A meeting with Gove yesterday:

    Šefčovič welcomed the clear political steer and commitment given by Gove outlining progress on key areas. He said that “today’s meeting demonstrated the political will to move at pace on both sides”, but warned that “despite some progress, much work remains to be done by the UK”

    But in the end:

    A No 10 spokesman said the prime minister had noted the EU’s offer to “intensify” the talks during a call between Barnier and his British counterpart on Monday but insisted there remained no basis yet to resume the negotiation.

    I note too Gove’s use of the word “anger”.

  13. laughtong @ #160 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 1:56 pm

    We have been diabetics for a fair while, and with only one of the lancing devices we have used was it easy and obvious how to replace the needle.
    We have the one above and it is fiddly and not that obvious how to turn the rondel to access a new needle. 6 needles in the rondel and they come (to us) in a box of only 5 rondels.
    I can certainly see where this may have easily gone wrong.

    I suspect, and you would know, that once one lancet is used it can’t be used again i.e. you have to turn the rondel to get another one out. I’m suggesting that the exit/retraction portal could be soiled, which isn’t an issue when the device is single person use, like yourselves, but would be if the device were shared.

  15. Yankee Doodle Dandy:

    EGT:

    how about nathy, brutish and Shorten.

    It begs the question: who is brutish?

    I would say I think you mean “prompts the question”, but that might be brutish!

  16. A suggestion? Surely not.

    Morrison has no intention of investing in social housing projects because it creates competition for negatively geared investors/ private landlords

  17. Mavis @ #159 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 1:48 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 12:53 pm

    [‘It has resorted to Howard tactics with blatant cash bribery via childcare costs.’]

    Tell that to the parents who find the child-care subsidy cost-prohibitive.

    Especially the parents who’d prefer taxpayers to fund their childcare so they can upgrade their VW Touareg to a RangeRover.

  20. Morrison mislead the house
    Claiming Mitsubishi left because of the Labor government in 2008

    Howard responds to Mitsubishi closure speculation
    PRINT FRIENDLY EMAIL STORY
    The World Today – Wednesday, 13 September , 2006 12:26:00
    Reporter: Eleanor Hall
    ELEANOR HALL: The Prime Minister John Howard has joined his industry Minister in saying he can only rely on what Mitsubishi says about its future in Australia.

    JOHN HOWARD: I can only reinforce what has been said already, and that is the company has made statements about continuing in South Australia, and in the end it’s a decision for the company, and we have provided a lot of assistance to Mitsubishi, as has the South Australian Government, and the motor manufacturing industry is very important to South Australia, and we’ve done a lot of things that have made motor manufacturing more attractive.

    —–

    In the end it’s a company decision, but the company has made statements, and that must be taken as an indication of the company’s intentions.

  21. Itza:

    The transmission scenario discussed by one expert (some sort of physician), was:
    – infected patient is tested and whilst being tested, coughs on device
    – lancet replace
    – infectee (next patient) touches device, then immediately rubs eyes

    This was suggested as the only scenario in which infection could occur (and was noted as very unlikely).

    Separately, there was a discussion of a theoretical risk of blood disease transmission (of Hepatitis or HIV), as follows:
    – infected patient tested, blood enters device via lancet
    – lancet replaced, small amount of blood at the device / lancet interface contaniminates new lancet
    – infectee tested, infection via contaminated lancet

    If this has non-negligible likelihood of occurrence, it would also occur in hospital wards (per rhwombat’s description of standard practice). Since it doesn’t occur in that case, neither does it occur in hotels.

    My suspicion is that some non-physician who is a diabetic and thus familiar with single person devices has become aware of multi-person use in the hotels (but not being a physician is not aware of multi-person devices in hospital wards) and has sounded the alarm, which seems to have been a false alarm.

  23. “to the increasingly weary NSW voters who simply want to know if she bonked him or not.”

    Not this weary NSW voter. The less I know about Gladys’s personal life the better.

    As with Barnaby, the public interest is in the rorting, not the rooting.

  25. Rex Douglas:

    Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 12:53 pm

    [‘Especially the parents who’d prefer taxpayers to fund their childcare so they can upgrade their VW Touareg to a RangeRover.’]

    While some might, the majority would be trying to make ends meet. And as you’d know, the subsidy is capped, in consequence of which it’s not worthwhile to have a child/children in care for more than three days.

    This will not only increase female participation in the workforce (which is relatively low) but is per se an election-winning policy.

  26. Does this qualify as a dad joke?

    A squid was feeling poorly. . Asked a passing whale to help him to the surface. …whale put him on his flipper carried him to the surface then tossed him to another whale yelling “hey Pete! Here’s that sick squid i owe ya!”

  31. This is a subscriber only article but the message is clear from the headline.

    The hard right (Seselja faction) who control the ACT Liberals obviously have no intention of ceding power to the more moderate faction after last Saturday’s voting disaster. This message from Josh Manuatu, party president along with a defiant stance today by Alistair Coe suggests that they will remain a sad and sorry bunch for some time to come.

    Labor and the Greens will see their ACT election win as a mandate for their arrogance, cronyism and contempt for Canberrans who don’t fit in their vision for the city, the president of the Canberra Liberals has warned party members.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6976441/labor-greens-will-see-win-as-endorsement-of-arrogance-cronyism-lib-president/?cs=14225

  33. So we can all calm down? Or should we panic? Scotty says he has more work to do.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has dismissed talk of an early election and delivered a warning to government MPs about the danger of complacency, as he signalled new policy ambitions on workplace relations and employment.

    Mr Morrison declared he was a “full-termer” and rubbished the idea of exploiting the government’s strong position in the opinion polls to call a snap election.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-a-full-termer-scott-morrison-dismisses-talk-of-early-election-20201020-p566tz.html

  34. Labor has seemingly abandoned means testing with their proposition of removing the cap on the childcare subsidy.

    Let’s not pretend it’s anything other than a blatant bribe in the true Howard style.

    Having said that, knowing Australians, it may well be electorally profitable.

  35. Kakuru says:
    Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 2:52 pm
    Entsch ‘retired’ in 2007, but ran again (and won) in 2010. He’s contested (and won) every election since.

    ———————

    Thanks

  37. E. G. Theodore @ #171 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 2:22 pm

    Itza:

    The transmission scenario discussed by one expert (some sort of physician), was:
    – infected patient is tested and whilst being tested, coughs on device
    – lancet replace
    – infectee (next patient) touches device, then immediately rubs eyes

    This was suggested as the only scenario in which infection could occur (and was noted as very unlikely).

    Separately, there was a discussion of a theoretical risk of blood disease transmission (of Hepatitis or HIV), as follows:
    – infected patient tested, blood enters device via lancet
    – lancet replaced, small amount of blood at the device / lancet interface contaniminates new lancet
    – infectee tested, infection via contaminated lancet

    If this has non-negligible likelihood of occurrence, it would also occur in hospital wards (per rhwombat’s description of standard practice). Since it doesn’t occur in that case, neither does it occur in hotels.

    My suspicion is that some non-physician who is a diabetic and thus familiar with single person devices has become aware of multi-person use in the hotels (but not being a physician is not aware of multi-person devices in hospital wards) and has sounded the alarm, which seems to have been a false alarm.

    ‘Expert’ One is way off the mark I reckon. For starters, in a non domestic situation, the device is usually held by a third party , nurse or some such, unless the person being tested is a known diabetic with their own device. If the device were being shared, with person to person handling, without cleansing in between, then that is major fail, but I don’t think that is what we are talking about. My understanding from one of the MOs was that they are not looking at Covid contamination, but only blood contamination (and Covid is not spread by blood) – hence HIV, Hep B, C et al.

    I haven’t read what doc wombat said, but again, it is my understanding (and I just made a phone call to confirm same) that in the hospital situation, only single use lancet devices are used, albeit with a common testing unit. Using a multi-lancet device on different people would be a complete anathema to anyone paying attention to infection control basics – but that is my suspicion as to what happened.

  38. lizzie @ #183 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 2:57 pm

    So we can all calm down? Or should we panic? Scotty says he has more work to do.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has dismissed talk of an early election and delivered a warning to government MPs about the danger of complacency, as he signalled new policy ambitions on workplace relations and employment.

    Mr Morrison declared he was a “full-termer” and rubbished the idea of exploiting the government’s strong position in the opinion polls to call a snap election.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-a-full-termer-scott-morrison-dismisses-talk-of-early-election-20201020-p566tz.html

    Sounds like an early election coming up to me.

  41. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 2:26 pm
    What I can confidently call, LVT, is that Dotard has a fat arse and a willing megaphone in Miranda Devine…

    NY Post’s Miranda Devine: Trump’s town hall was a “set-up from the start” because they gave him a “tiny” chair that “could barely fit half a buttock, let alone a whole one”

    https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status/1318313464063053825?s=21

    [EDIT] Just give Trump a choice of seats for the next debate.

  43. Rex Douglas:

    [‘Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 2:57 pm’]

    Judging by your posts on the issue of Labor’s child-care policy, you appear to be smarting. I guess it must be painful in coming to terms with the realisation that Labor’s really onto something. And your contention that it’s a Howard-type giveaway is risible.

  44. Tegan George
    @tegangeorge
    ·
    5h
    Estimates hearing the National COVID-19 Commission (Advisory Board) had access to Cabinet submissions and provided advice on the budget.
    @10NewsFirst #auspol2020 @SenKatyG

    Denise Allen
    @denniallen
    ·
    2m
    Morrison never works. Someone had to do the job. Albeit illegally and against the constitution and security guidelines.

  45. Paul Fletcher

    I think we can say that Australia Post is dealing with a difficult set of challenges, but in doing that, they have responded well to meeting the needs of Australia. All of us can ask, do we have confidence in the board and management of Australia Post, we say on this side House, let’s judge them by the quality of the services and the outcomes they’re delivering. That’s what we do on this side of the House.

    Yeah OK Mr Fletcher. I’m judging right now! Waited 3 weeks for some dead plants. Bewdy!

  46. Mavis @ #193 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 3:16 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    [‘Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 2:57 pm’]

    Judging by your posts on the issue of Labor’s child-care policy, you appear to be smarting. I guess it must be painful in coming to terms with the realisation that Labor’s really onto something. And your contention that it’s a Howard-type giveaway is risible.

    I try to be consistent.

  48. In Senate Estimates, Wong asks ‘Is there a vector of influence (by Qanon over ScottyFromBunnings)’

    This has got a ways to run..

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