As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.
Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.
The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.
Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.
UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.
In other news:
• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.
• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.
• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.
Happy to judge Australia Post by the quality of its services and deliveries Mr Fletcher.
Perhaps you could explain how a carton of wine ordered from Marrickville, shown on Aust. Post tracking to be at Chullora parcel depot, indicated by email to be due for delivery to my Bennelong address the following day was next found on tracking, after being missing in action for over a week, in the Northern Territory at the Darwin parcel depot!?
It did eventually find its way back to me more than a fortnight after beginning its journey in early -mid September.
Rex Douglas:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 3:23 pm
[‘I try to be consistent.’]
Consistent in criticising Labor on the faux premise of objectivity. You are perhaps confusing greater female participation in the work-force with Howard’s battler tradies.
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 12:35 pm
Taylormade will be pleased to know his information yesterday was not accurate.
I didnt bother waiting for him to clarify this.
We could of been waiting for an eternity.
________________
Jumping on the 3AW bandwagon to prove a point. That is very funny coming from you. You going to give Neil a call tomorrow morning.
Who cares if it is ‘low risk’ there should be no risk at all if people were doing thier jobs correctly.
No fair-minded traditional Labor person should be comfortable with this Labor party adopting Howard-style bribery measures.
It’s ok to be true to your values and speak out.
Taylormade @ #203 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 3:47 pm
We should all fall in behind DimTim’s impeccable style and substance in delivering gold standard public service.
Rex Douglas:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 3:49 pm
[‘No fair-minded traditional Labor person should be comfortable with this Labor party adopting Howard-style bribery measures.’]
I tend to think you’re being willfully obtuse. Anyway, that’s all from me on the subject.
Rex Douglas
I don’t see this Childcare decision as bribery. The modelling shows that female workforce participation, with all its flow on effects is negatively affected by a cap on income.
No woman should have to choose between financial independence and a career or having a child. Our predominantly patriarchal society will never become gender neutral while women’s work is subdued due to child rearing.
Labor needs to make its policy decisions based on the current situation and in this area making Childcare cheaper for all will create more benefits than any measure the Libs are selling.
Kristina Keneally
@KKeneally
·
2h
Former State MP Daryl Maguire is under investigation by the NSW ICAC because of his “cash for visas” scam.
The
@AusFedPolice
are investigating the Badgery’s Creek Airport land sale.
But now the AFP are set to deal with ICAC to see if Mr Maguire was involved in that land sale Thinking face
Kristina Keneally
@KKeneally
·
19m
Disgraced former NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire has admitted to the NSW ICAC he was running a “cash for visas” scam
In #qt today
@ScottMorrisonMP
wouldn’t deny receiving representations from Mr Maguire about visas
Why can’t the Prime Minister answer this simple question?
#auspol
Why does Rex have it in for working mothers,
Oedipus Rex ?
The refugee who was kept in detention after the Federal Court ordered that he be released is suing the Cth for false imprisonment. The repugnant Tudge has a lot to answer for, including contempt of court, seemingly held in abeyance until an appeal of the primary judge’s decision is heard.
Karvelas: is it useful to have the Fed Treasurer and the Vic Premier attacking each other…?
I’d say Andrews eventually reacted to the sniping, he didn’t attack first.
RIP Paul Murphy:
https://www.radioinfo.com.au/news/vale-paul-murphy
Reminds me of the (possibly apocryphal) tin dunny at Tobruk in WW2.
Written on the back of the dunny door was this complaint…
In reply, in another hand was…
Trump’s solution: either get a bigger chair, or deploy a smaller buttock.
Have just read up on the latest from the Victorian Quarantine enquiry.
When I was working I found managing emails to be one of the most time consuming and frustrating parts of my job. Not only the volume of them, but the assumption of some people that you had nothing to do each day but watch the screen ready to respond to their request. Then there were the emails that you receive that should have been sent to someone downstream, but for some reason the person only wanted to communicate through you.
In a managing these problems I would refer on those emails that could be managed by other staff with a request they deal with the issue and let me know when done. The problem with this is if you then check everything they send, you might as well have done the work yourself.
I can only imagine the volume of emails that Sutton would receive and given the fast paced response that was required to deal with the many issues around the covid response, I can easily imagine a scenario where the cc email was acknowledged with a thanks but not actually read.
I also know that people want answers and some people are only going to accept answers that fit their narrative, that Andrews and his team wilfully stuffed up and should be tarred, feathered and imprisoned prior to being sued into abject poverty. Heaven forbid a Labor team are made up of fallible humans, that is exclusively reserved for Liberals.
Rant over
Bennelong Lurker
Delayed wine delivery = 1st world problem.
Josh has 15% unemployment and a trillion dollar deficit to look forward to.
He’ll need impenetrable steel to survive the taunts of that.
Puffy,
It might be an isolated incident. Taylormade’s whine gets delivered every day.
The problem with Aus Post is that they have been deliberately making their service worse to encourage people to use their Premium Express Post service. This service is no better than the regular service used to be and is overpriced. Parcels and letters were moved quicker around the country 100 years ago than they are now.
One could be forgiven for thinking that this is a deliberate policy with the aim of privatisation to improve service as the goal
Listening to an interview with Jacqui Lambie on RN, I can understand why she’s so popular in Tassie and farther afield – her openness is mind-boggling.
Back in the day, Paul Murphy’s work on The South Coast News, on Roy and HG’s This Sporting Life was the best fifteen minutes of radio in the world. No correspondence will be entered into.
E. G. Theodore @ #170 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 2:22 pm
Actually, I think the confusion has arisen because in most hospital clinical use settings we use single use disposable spring-loaded lancets, not the multi-use (not multi-user) devices.
The risk of blood borne virus (BBV: HIV, HBV, HCV, HTLV etc.) transmission due to the contamination of the insertion channel of a multi-use device is still <1:3000 (which is the estimated transmission rate of direct intravenous injection of 1 ml of blood from someone with detectable viral load of HIV), and is probably of the order of 1:10^6-8 for direct subcutaneous injection of the 0-10 lymphocytes that could theoretically transfer on the point of a new lancet passed through a contaminated channel. Given that the likely rate of HCV positivity (the most prevalent BBV in Australia) of the source is going to be <1:10^5, the combined risk is likely to be < 1:10^10. This is just another bullshit distraction by the Murdorcs.
Puffy,
Yes, definitely a first world problem, but then Paul Fletcher would have us believe he oversees a first world postal service, so I thought it deserved a little whine ( thank you , GG). At least, judging from the one bottle I have opened the contents of the carton have not gone the way of poor Lizzie’s plants.
RhWombat
I agree it is likely that a multi-use lancet has been used on multiple patients and the risk of infection is negligible but I have seen full blown hospital panics with tracing and testing for lesser breaks of protocol.
The Vic dept would have been negligent not to follow up
Rex Patrick
@Senator_Patrick
·
1h
ICYMI: PM @ScottMorrisonMP
has just very quietly issued a new Cabinet Handbook, setting out his rules for National Cabinet. One problem – it’s not a real Cabinet. It’s all about secrecy & spin. I’m fighting this power grab in the AAT. Rex vs Scott. #auspol https://pmc.gov.au/resource-centre/government/cabinet-handbook
@Senator_Patrick
For some good background on what is likely to prove a major legal battle on the future of Cabinet government in Australia, likely ending up in the High Court, see this report by
@KarenMMiddleton in @SatPaper
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/17/challenging-the-secrecy-national-cabinet/160285320010576
Shellbell
The one the ABC didn’t want?
ItzaDream @ #187 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 3:00 pm
My experience when in hospital with pancreatitis and enduring a blood sugar test twice a day was the sticky in thing to get the sample of blood was a new one every time but once the blood sample was collected on one of the strips it was placed in a device that was used for all patients on the ward that had sugar level tests. Different people I know with type 1 diabetes all use the single use sticky in things (my technical term) How this all got blown out of proportion I have no idea,
Thanks lizzie.
It’s tantalising to think there are records of the many past national cabinet meetings that might one day become public. And I wonder how that possibility might affect future meetings.
EDIT: possibility
Hasn’t the coalition done well. Even managed to beat stiff competition from Greece,Colombia, Mexico and Chile to claim first for worst.
Oakeshott Country @ #391 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
Agreed – however I was peripherally involved in the debacle that followed the inappropriate “look back” of the seropositive O&G registrar at Godzone Hospital in the 90’s, and am very aware of the doctrine of unintended consequences.
I guess the CIA, Newscorp, 7 media, 9 media, the ABC, Federal Govt, Labor right, DimTim, Taylormade and Nath will all have to go even harder.
Blind freddie can see the Libs have been firstly sniping then outright sledging Andrews in concert with the Murdoch press. Karvelas didnt pull them up about it. Then Andrews responds and she is quick to place fault on both sides. Says a lot about her ideas of ‘balance’.
Journos and presenters need to be more selfaware of their occasional lapses into ‘heads you lose, tails I win’.
Wow, the hubris must be great in Scott Morrison. He’s going to go to the next election with a suite of policies that will see 14 year old Climate Activists able to be hauled before the federal police agencies for questioning and charging; no Renewable Energy policy worth a damn; thousands of Aussie Expats likely still stranded overseas unable to come home; a willing purveyor of expensive Child Care for families, and, to top it all off, he thinks he can introduce WorkChoices 2.0 successfully to the country at a time of high unemployment/underemployment; worker exploitation and stagnant wages!
Obviously the ego is also strong with Scott Morrison.
C@tmomma @ #233 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 5:44 pm
Bottom line is he’s gonna have to out-bribe Albo.
Rex Douglas
You are taking a very narrow view of the proposal.
It is also about early childhood education, which most countries with decent policies (e.g. the Scandi countries) provide this with minimal cost to all citizens, starting from ages 2 to 3.
It allows women to continue their careers, increases productivity in those countries, and MOST IMPORTANTLY leads to better balanced and educated adults.
It is also a great social leveller. All children have the same opportunities.
A great headline reporting on a study on this in the USA some time ago stated “Build preschools now, or gaols later”.
You could also think of it as an extension of schooling to earlier years. We do not exclude parents from sending their children to the local state school because they earn too much, or charge them so much if they do, that it is cheaper for the mother to home school them.
One area where this sort of systems is defacto in place is in parts of Sydney’s Eastern suburbs. Many children go to the many private schools in the area. The state high schools suffer from a poorer that average clientele (although I think Randwick Girls has now turned this around), and the state schools have problems you would normally only associate with those in poorer suburbs.
Interestingly enough, go north of the harbour, and it is totally different. There are also many private schools, but many people choose state education, and some north shore school state schools are among the best in NSW.
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 5:15 pm
Shellbell
Janine Perrett has gone from Sky to Crikey!
That is something more than poacher to gamekeeper
The one the ABC didn’t want?
———————————-
D&M
Perrett is good in she dishes all comers regardless of political party.
Douglas and Milko
Closer to home than the Scandis, NZ fully funds 20 hours a week of preschool for all 3+4 year olds (primary starting age is 5). I think they also require the teachers there to have tertiary qualifications.
Douglas and Milko @ #235 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 5:50 pm
Childcare is available to everyone and only those who can’t afford it should be assisted. That’s fair.
What’s unfair is using precious taxpayer dollars subsidising those earning a good living while many others are literally struggling to survive day to day living in poverty.
You can spin it anyway you like. This is a blatant bribe for votes which JWH would be impressed by.
D&M
I came across an odd heading today.
https://www.sciencealert.com/for-some-reason-the-density-of-space-is-higher-just-outside-the-solar-system
I have a vague idea you’re into astro type science. Apologies if I got that wrong. The bow-wave type explanation seems plausible, but I wonder if this might have implications for dark matter? (Merely idle curiosity.)
Rex
So why are you happy for “precious taxpayer dollars” being used to provide state education for children once they turn 5?
Do you advocate a means test for state schools?
Poroti
Thanks for that. I went with the Scandi countries because I was sure of my facts. But I believe that Australia is behind even the UK when it comes to providing free, equal and quality childhood education.
We seem to like emulating the USA here, sigh, despite the obviously terrible outcomes for them in terms of social equality.
Douglas and Milko @ #240 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 6:15 pm
Absolutely.
The Herald Sun understands a deal has been struck between Moonee Valley racing officials and the state government to allow a limited number of owners on track for Saturday’s race.
Owners are tipped to also be on track on Friday when the Cox Plate carnival kicks off with the Manikato Stakes meeting.
________________
I hope these owners live within 20km of Moonee Valley. Otherwise it looks to be one rule for the rich another rule for the poor.
Onto issues closer to home, OH and I voted today in the Qld State election, soon after lunch. Car parking was at a premium with cars backed up and waiting. Once inside the polling station there was a steady stream of voters. The process was efficient and the staff were professional and friendly. But I came away feeling that the mood of the voters was serious and determined. This isn’t the way it felt at the last election. And I wonder if it is because the electors are in a mood for change. Mitigating that is the thought that this is in an electorate where the incumbent is LNP and in opposition.
Yep , he definitely looks the’s gone the full 9 months.
RHW
Yes, the logic of look backs can be difficult to comprehend.
My favourite: as you know some surgical equipment was not amenable to heat or gas sterilisation and for many years the work around was to put them in a sterile sleeve without known incident . Eventually this was banned and Hospitals had to upgrade for fully sterilisable equipment.
One Friday afternoon (always that time) we found that theatres hadn’t upgraded the geiger counter for sentinel node biopsies for 18 months – and it was on; district, ministry and comms were notified and a 3 year look back was called for.
The point I made which was eventually accepted was that we only had to do the look back to the date of the Ministry’s directive – because before that date we were completely within the sterile guidelines. As you have guessed no contamination was found.
“And this just in, officials from Scott Morrison’s department have confirmed the high powered business leaders on Nev Power’s Covid coordination commission have been given “baseline” security clearances so they can have access to confidential cabinet material.”
______
Would this be the “SECRET” clearance classification I wonder. If so, they are not at all rare.
Pumicestone May be tight as we are getting plenty of attention here on the island.
Taylormade @ #243 Tuesday, October 20th, 2020 – 6:23 pm
All you’ve got to do is whinge, whinge, whinge!
And really close to home, our letterbox this afternoon had a 1 page flyer from the LNP, exhorting me to vote LNP to “Rebuild our economy and create jobs.” The two grinners at the top of the front side, taking up fully 1/3 of the front side, were Morrison and Simmonds (the guy who tossed out Prentice). The rest of the page was all about Morrison helping Queensland. The footer was grinner Simmonds announcing he is the member for Ryan, a federal seat.
On the back you can read about essential services (covid means we need a strong economy) and infrastructure investment to drive jobs (10 year infrastructure pipeline). Did you know that the since 2013 the *Morrison* government has invested 28.5 billion in Queensland? I didn’t. It’s quite the feat when I think about that. But where it gets interesting is at the bottom of the back page, where Frecklington finally gets mentioned, just once, wtte “Morrison and Frecklington have a plan.” (Morrison gets named first. I guess it’s his plan.) There are no images of the LNP leader though. The page footer is “Your local LNP team” with four more grinners. Unless you read the thing twice you’ll never spot Frecklington. It leaves me thinking her days are numbered. (Also that Frecklington is backed by Dutton, who so far has been mostly quiet.)