As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.
Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.
The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.
Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.
UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.
In other news:
• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.
• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.
• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.
lizzie @ #1399 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 4:48 pm
I hope, so too can the voters in the USA learn from theirs.
lizzie @ #1399 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 2:48 pm
I blocked him ages ago. Just a pointless read, if he expresses a good idea it will be someone else’s that has been so widely spread it has become accepted as truth
Dan Andrews made it into the print version of the NYT.
.
AUSTRALIA
In One of the World’s Longest Lockdowns, One Man is Omnipresent
By Besha Rodell
PRINT EDITION
October 16, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/world/australia/daniel-andrews-victoria-lockdown.html?searchResultPosition=1
ASIC’s blunders: Who’ll bury the undertaker?
There’s a certain irony that the two operatives handpicked by the government to clean up the banks are now mired in a mess of their own, their futures uncertain.
A day after Christine Holgate was stood aside after revelations of four Cartier watches being gifted to executives two years ago, the government has reacted just as clinically to audit findings that Australian Securities and Investments Commission chairman James Shipton and his deputy Daniel Crennan were reimbursed a combined $190,000 in expenses to which they were not entitled.
Standing aside: ASIC chairman James Shipton. Alex Ellinghausen
ASIC paid the $118,000 KPMG charged Mr Shipton to sort out his Australian and US tax affairs as part of his relocation package. As it turned out, ASIC was meant to spend only $9500.
Government sources said the fact KPMG could charge that much and be reimbursed without question would be looked at as part of the investigation launched on Friday.
ASIC paid $70,000 in rent for Mr Crennan, to which he was not entitled, after he relocated from Melbourne to Sydney.
The government first got wind of a problem – minus details – more than a month ago when the Commonwealth Auditor-General, who has already had a spectacular year by uncovering the sports rorts affair before the last election and the $30 million Badgerys Creek land sale, appraised Treasurer Josh Frydenberg that anomalies had been uncovered within ASIC.
He was told to expect a letter, which arrived on Thursday.
No one in government believes the wrongdoing by either man was deliberate but, again, there is no room for nuance in the current political environment.
The punters think everybody is a crook and those perceptions are amplified in the midst of a recession. Labor is helping stoke them in spades. It was running the line on Friday, pointing out the Australia Post largesse occurred under Scott Morrison’s watch.
The ASIC situation is particularly awkward given the public roles of Mr Shipton and Mr Crennan involve cleaning up bad corporate behaviour.
To the cynical, it’s a case of physician heal thyself.
All these scandals are amplifying pressure on the government to establish a national integrity commission. The government, privately, argues that the Commonwealth audit process and associated system are working well so there is no rush.
That, however, does not explain why the funding of the Audit Office was given a haircut in the October 6 budget.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/asic-s-blunders-who-ll-bury-the-undertaker-20201023-p5681o
Kakuru @ #1400 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 5:48 pm
More accurately its the usual BS from morrison.
Insider scoop.
The Federal Government is planning a piss-up in a brewery just as soon as a suitable innovative and agile brewery becomes available.
Be early. Tell your friends – you won’t regret it. Get your tickets direct from Mr. Roberts – any Mr. Roberts. Alert the girls and guys at your local bingo parlour.
Goodnight all. 📺💤💤
Final thought for the week, it is impossible to keep track of all Scomo’s hypocrisy and inability to admit past lies, but this is a whopper.
Remember the SA big battery Jay WEatherall built? Scomo said it was:
“Like the big banana”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/scott-morrison-mocks-sas-big-battery-as-like-the-big-banana-20170727-gxjqbz
Now three years later it is highly profitable and one is being built in western Sydney. And Scomo says… nothing. Coward.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nsw-to-get-a-new-big-battery-as-renewable-power-surges-20201022-p567ln.html
lizzie says:
Friday, October 23, 2020 at 5:48 pm
Why are our media so stupid?
I’ve only read the headlines for Knott’s articles but there’s a feeling that he’s wishin’ ‘n’ hopin’ that Trump wins.
KayJay @ #1406 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 5:13 pm
Pleasant dreams. Try to avoid the Robotsezzzz. 🙂
It’s remarkable that Trump has set such a low bar in political debate that the fact his head didn’t explode shows how presidential he is.
The Donald when his brain discovered it had created an original thought –
Rationally the polls tell me Biden but there is a whiff of Shorten 2019 there too…….
citizen @ #1408 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 6:27 pm
Knott really gives an excellent case not to pay for his ‘product’ or that of his employers who made available their Sydney Channel 9 business premises so that the libs could generate big buck donations for the next election.
As for the “Independent. Always.” banner on 9 Fairfax Publications – the John Elliott line of “Pigs Arse” comes to mind….
After nearly four years of trying to look like a president, he can just barely do it. Yet his barely adequate (acting) performance is enough for some people.
mikehilliard @ #1410 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 5:45 pm
I expect Trump to lose. If I were religious I’d ask my gods for help, but I’m not. So hope will have to do. But that youtube earlier, posted by ItzaDream , made a good point. There are a lot of US voters who are just plain tired of the daily outrage and noise that is the Trump show and they want him to go away. Add that group to the voters who are appalled and then to those who are angry and Trump should lose. I hope.
It will take time for any normalcy to return. What Trump will eventually be remembered for is how he got voters to pay attention and to turn out to vote. I hope his legacy is that voting matters, and that you have to pay attention.
Lars Von Trier @ #1412 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 6:57 pm
ESJ – just looking at a couple of your old posts….your old “calls”….
Edwina StJohn
Posted Monday, January 19, 2015 at 6:21 am | Permalink
Three (3) more years of Campbellism coming up !
That was of course before you disgraced yourself under the ESJ name….
Friday night bin night.
Statement attributable to Australia Post Chair, Lucio Di Bartolomeo
Budget Estimates 2020-21 Hearing Appearance
On 22 October 2020 Australia Post representatives appeared before the Senate Environment and Communications Legislation Committee in relation to Budget Estimates 2020-21.
During that appearance, Australia Post’s Group Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director provided answers to questions relating to the purchase of four gifts for four Australia Post employees. Since the appearance, I have become aware of further details of the purchase and wish, as a matter of urgency, to clarify that the purchase was of four items costing $7,000, $4,750, $4,400 and $3,800 totalling $19,950 (including GST), and was made in November 2018.
Australia Post will continue to participate transparently in Budget Estimates 2020-21 processes, including to review the proof Hansard transcript of evidence when it is made available and to respond to questions on notice, and will – as reflected in my public statement yesterday – also fully cooperate with the recently announced investigation to be conducted by shareholder departments.
Biden wrongly saying Trump was saying he was Abraham Lincoln was a worry. Mentally he obviously tends to short hand.
The ultimate takedown of Matthew Knott’s article
Lars Von Trier @ #1418 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 6:06 pm
mock
/mɒk/
verb
1.
tease or laugh at in a scornful or contemptuous manner.
An interesting factoid about James Shipton – embattled head of ASIC.
At the first appearance of Shipton at Senate Estimates some years ago, whilst they were waiting to get started, an exchange happened between Shipton and Committee Chair, Senator Jane Hume.
In short, they were neighbours in Melbourne, and had been childhood friends. Lots of backslapping about how they had both risen to their lofty heights before the proceedings began.
Yawn, again with the jealousy sprockets…
What is it you see in Dotard, Lib von Tryhard?
Watchgate bullshit, marketing gold for Scrott.
Just watching Ch10 news, keen C19 watchers would have noted that a ‘70 year old diplomat had arrived in Sydney, driven to Canberra, self isolated and subsequently on Day 10 tested positive’.
Many questions arise about how this can happen, and be tolerated by Border Force/Dutton, GladysB et al. What risks are there for the community allowing this bypass of normal 14 day hotel quarantine?
So who was this diplomat, and from what country?
Didn’t catch the name, but he is the Ambassador for the Holy See.
Sprocket
Wow and you found that interesting ?
I couldn’t care less.
Greensborough Growler @ #1303 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 4:27 pm
http://www.blazetv.com
BlazeTV is fighting back against the liberal bias of the mainstream media, and we want you to join us! Watch commercial-free tv shows from the biggest voices …
Real and uncensored
Welcome to news and entertainment as they should be. Our talented lineup — including Glenn Beck, Steven Crowder, Mark Levin, Phil and Jase Robertson, and more — is unencumbered by biased “fact-checks” and Big Tech censorship.
If this link works, something very much worth listening to from 8 pm Eastern summertime
https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR3H7WePEkeVkbi8PeoSxMHKC9PrvrkumpZCy2b4Hem-KNVJ8qFhqRcwqgM&v=M49aB0DIAho
This says something about FoxNews viewers…
Taylormade
Why the sourpuss comment visage? Trivia about politicians is what keeps us sane in these interregnums between polls and elections.
If you don’t like my Jane Hume one, I have others 🙂
Trump shared screenshots of several Twitter polls showing him winning the debate. A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll showed him with 92 percent, while a similar poll from Glenn Beck’s The Blaze gave him 96 percent.
The president also shared a poll from The Daily Wire giving him a debate win with 95 percent of votes.
Online polls lack the rigorous methodology deployed by traditional pollsters and are easily manipulated. They are not representative of what the population thinks.
A CNN poll on Thursday showed that 53 percent of debate watchers believed Biden had won, compared to 41 percent for Trump.
A YouGov/CBS News poll yielded a similar result with 54 percent of those who watched the debate thinking Biden had won and just 35 percent saying Trump had. Nine percent said it was a tie.
Users of the message board 4chan have manipulated online polls in Trump’s favor in the past. The president’s supporters on Reddit, another online message board, have also engaged in this kind of behavior.
NBC News’ Ben Collins made the case on Twitter on October 2, two days after the first presidential debate. Online polls showed Trump winning easily but evidence suggested “rigging.”
https://www.newsweek.com/debate-trump-twitter-polls-biden-1541567
Speaking of ambassadors to the Holy See, Jack Waterford at his most vicious.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/carr-takes-the-tough-decisions-for-his-mates-20120428-1xrii.html
Newspoll marginal seats polling from Queensland:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/23/newspoll-queensland-marginal-seat-polls/
Indeed Shellbell
The most notorious Australian Ambassador to the Holy See was Brian Burke, who was recalled to face a Royal Commission into WA corruption.
Then there was ‘Liberal Party Royalty’ Sir Peter Lawler, who was probably exemplary, other than fathering the disgraced Michael Lawler, former Deputy Chair of the FairWork Commission…
Kyle Kulinski is another great source of commentary on American politics.
Well, it’s now known where Barrett’s coming from when asked about whether Trump’s powers are untrammeled. Unbeknown to most, they are set out in the Presidential Emergency Action Documents (PEAD), as posted by poroti, despite the 1845 statute, inter alia, that sets the election timetable, Trump implicitly referring to same when saying that he has powers unknown to the great unwashed. Though it would require the invocation of the PEAD to be based on an emergency, Trump could easily manufacture one. And while the PEAD’s legal status is dubious relative to the US Constitution & statutes, nothing should be dismissed given that his lackeys now constitute a majority on the SCOTUS. And while it’s potentially scary stuff, Biden will end this madness.
The best description I’ve ever read of Rupert Murdock and an actual lol moment. (not a good idea with a mouth full of beverage)
“The scrotum squeezed through a shirt collar that is Rupert Murdoch”
The rest of his article isn’t bad either, you can read it here:
https://theaimn.com/murdoch-and-morrison-partners-in-grime/
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/20/essential-research-2pp-coalition-48-labor-45-undecided-8/comment-page-29/#comment-3499522
Tyranny begins where law ends or something like it, from the Comey Rule, of course being from (New) Holland rather than New Netherland means I probably get the utility of windmills too, he’s clearly walked into one
Ottawa: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says his government will not stop standing up for human rights in China.
The retort came on Friday after the Chinese ambassador to Canada warned Trudeau’s government against granting asylum to Hong Kong residents fleeing the mainland’s interference into the territory’s affairs.
Cong Peiwu said if Canada cared about 300,000 Canadian citizens in Hong Kong ……
More –
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trudeau-trades-barbs-with-china-after-veiled-threat-to-canadians-20201023-p567zz.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-23/national-cabinet-international-passenger-caps-coronavirus/12806208
I guess this explains downunder’s Trump lite’s little rant about Auspost yesterday?
Tony Windsor on twitter-
“ Now that there is some real scrutiny of NSW deals being done behind the scenes and @GladysB is making true confessions maybe she could provide for public scrutiny the contractual arrangements she made with the Chinese co Shenhua. $258m without any paperwork.Was this shredded too?”
Biden did commit a faux pas when referring to fracking, new gas, and oil permits which could result in a diminution of the Dems’ vote in Texas, Pennsylvania, though the former is unlikely to go Biden’s way in any event. Apparently, congressmen & women, a senator (Pennsylvania) from both states are attempting to correct the record, which is that he would ban new gas and oil permits — including fracking — on federal lands only, the vast majority of oil and gas not coming from federal lands.
Dave et al.,
Agree.
Matthew Knott was an intern / junior journalist when I was a subscriber and avid reader of Crikey.
To me he has been a disappointment.
But then so has Crikey. Crikey can no longer criticise the Federal Coalition government without saying “but Labor were just as bad”.
How many years Coalition government do we need before Crikey will deign to ascribe a proportion of “bad” between Federal Coalition and Labor governments, rather than their current same /same rhetoric?
So, since 9/11, when for most purposes the current era of “terrorist” and “security politics” began, the Federal government has been:
11/09/2001 – Nov 2007. Coalition (PM Howard). [7 yrs]
Nov 2007 – Aug 2010. Labor (Rudd; Gillard) [3 yrs]
Aug 2010 – Sep 2013. Labor / Independents /Greens combination (Gillard; Rudd) [3 yrs]
Sep 2013 – Oct 2020 – Coalition (Abbott; Turnbull; Morrison) [7 yrs]
So, Labor v. Coalition since 9/11= 14 yrs / 3 yrs.
Even if you count the Gillard government* , it is still 14 yrs / 6 yrs, but to Crikey it is all same / same?
*which I do not when apportioning “same / same blame” – it was a definite coalition, and if it was only a Labor / Greens minority working as a block, the Coalition would have been in government. It required the very brave Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor as “national independents” to join Labor and the Greens to form a government.
I say brave, because both Oakeshott and Windsor knew they would not be elected for another term once they supported Labor.
Mavis
To repeat and emphasise a part of your excellent summation Mavis:
Though it would require the invocation of the PEAD to be based on an emergency, Trump could easily manufacture one. And while the PEAD’s legal status is dubious relative to the US Constitution & statutes, nothing should be dismissed given that his lackeys now constitute a majority on the SCOTUS. And while it’s potentially scary stuff, Biden will end this madness.
I really hope your last sentence is correct: “And while it’s potentially scary stuff, Biden will end this madness.”
There is a lot of money and power behind Trump.
Secret footage of the NSW Premiers’Office has emerged.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1319580066360115200
Douglas and Milko:
Friday, October 23, 2020 at 9:38 pm
[‘I really hope your last sentence is correct: “And while it’s potentially scary stuff, Biden will end this madness.”
There is a lot of money and power behind Trump.’]
I’m most confident of a Biden victory. I’ve observed those voting early, few of whom have the swagger of a Trump voter, and moreover polling has trended in the Dems favour for some time now albeit, like here, they’ll narrow a little. If perchance I’m wrong, I’ll just have to eat humble pie.
Even Matt Kean describes the funds as secret
https://mattkean.com.au/tags/hornsby-shire-council
The Liberals and the press are a disgrace:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/23/the-facts-dont-support-claims-of-a-brett-sutton-cover-up-over-emails
mavis
I think you are correct, and thanks for the reassurance based on observation!
Like Simon Katich, I fear I am going to need to drink a lot of good whisky to calm my nerves in the 12 days remaining until we know the result.
I have a lovely Tasmanian artisan peaty whisky in the cupboard (I like them so you feel like you are eating bog while smelling peat combustion fumes).
I do not want to break it out too early, but am feeling very nervous and in need of a small tile to still my nerves.
The whisky was a present: it is from the Lark distillery.
Also, poroti, I know you are laughing at people like me who think the 2020 US presidential election is a “sliding doors” moment, which can decide whether the world slides into fascism, or whether there is the possibility of a slow and unsteady recovery of democracy. But seriously, don’t you think the world would have been better off if Hitler and his Nazis had not done so bloody well in the German elections of 1932?
Like Simon Katich, I fear I am going to need to drink a lot of good whisky to calm my nerves in the 12 days remaining until we know the result.
————————
You’d better stock up! It could be more like 22 rather than 12 days before we know the result as absentee and mail ballots get counted. Hopefully the result will be clear on the night.