Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8

Essential Research credits the federal Coalition with a slight lead, as more evidence emerges that Gladys Berejiklian’s embarrassment before ICAC has done her little harm with voters.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest Essential Research poll is one of the quarterly releases in which it unloads its voting intention data from the preceding period. This includes the pollster’s “two-party preferred plus” result, which uses respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate such a preference, previous election flows for those that don’t, and does not exclude those who were undecided on the primary vote. This produces a result of Coalition 48%, Labor 45% and 8% undecided. That’s all we have for now, but the full release today should have primary vote and two-party preferred plus results for the pollster’s other five fortnightly polls going back to August, which will reportedly show the Coalition leading in four but Labor ahead in a poll in early September.

Also featured are leadership ratings for the federal leaders, as well as for the state leaders based on what I presume to be small state-level sub-samples. The former record little change on the last such result six weeks ago, with Scott Morrison down one on both approval and disapproval, to 63% and 27% respectively; Anthony Albanese perfectly unchanged at 44% approval and 29% disapproval; and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead nudging from 49-26 to 50-25.

The state results suggest last week’s unpleasantness has not done Gladys Berejiklian the slightest harm, with her approval rating at 67% – identical to the result of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph, on which more below. This puts Berejiklian clear of both Daniel Andrews on 54% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 62%. Mark McGowan is on 84% and Steven Marshall 51%, though here sample sizes get very small indeed. McGowan’s rating is in line with polling elsewhere, but Marshall’s is at odds with the 68% he recorded in a much more robust poll in mid-September.

Other questions focus on the budget, finding 56% expecting it will help Australia recover from the recession and 53% that it will create jobs. However, 58% felt it would create long-term problems needing to be fixed in the future, and 62% believed current government debt and deficit would place “unnecessary burdens on future generations”. Fifty-four per cent felt it “balanced the needs of the genders”, contrary to much media analysis, but 45% thought it put the interests of younger Australians ahead of older people compared with 34% who thought it balanced. Forty-two per cent thought it put the interests of businesses ahead of employers, compared with 14% for vice-versa.

UPDATE: Full report here. The latest primary vote numbers are Coalition 39%, Labor 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 3%, which becomes Coalition 42.4%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 3.3% if the 8% undecided are excluded.

In other news:

• The aforementioned YouGov poll in the Sunday Telegraph had Gladys Berejiklian at 68% approval and 26% disapproval, and found 60% support for her to remain as Premier, with only 29% saying she should resign. Forty-nine per cent said she had done nothing wrong, compared with 36% who felt otherwise. Thirty-six per cent were more likely to vote Coalition if Berejiklian was Premier, compared with 22% less likely and 42% no difference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday from a sample of 836.

• Sunday’s Nine News bulletin had grim polling for federal Labor in two of its most marginal seats, showing the Coalition leading 51.2% to 27.9% on the primary vote in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. The poll was conducted by the Redbridge Group, which also had bad seat polling for Labor in August. However, it should be noted that the pollster is careful not to stake its reputation on its voting intention polling, with Samaras having observed that “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.

• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of Saturday’s results in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,642 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 48, Labor 45, undecided 8”

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  1. Mavis @ #1442 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 8:25 pm

    Apparently, congressmen & women, a senator (Pennsylvania) from both states are attempting to correct the record, which is that he would ban new gas and oil permits — including fracking — on federal lands only

    Biden said specifically that during the debate (albeit with “federal land only” delivered via a clarification). If there was a faux pas, it was miniscule.

  2. “ That was of course before you disgraced yourself under the ESJ name….”

    Oh joe we laughed when EJS tried to convince us all that Lucius Cornelius Sulla had not been awarded the cognomen and title of Imperator, just because the Roman senate had not passed a resolution declaring him thus.

    Notwithstanding:

    1. that according to custom and practice of the Roman Republic it was actually the acclamation of the legions under a general’s command that made the declaration, and the role of the senate was confined to confirming that declaration by awarding the general a Triumphal parade – or not;

    2. In the late republic, there were a very small few instances where the senate passed a resolution declaring someone to be ‘imperator’ & for political reasons only. For example Sulla’s post civil war senate Pompey was declared an imperator because he raised and commanded legions without sanction of the pre civil war senate during Sulla’s war against Carbo and the remnants of the Marius-Cinna faction: because he lacked the imperium of a praetor or consul special arrangements needed to be made. None of Caesar’s victories were acknowledged by a boni controlled senate in the lead up to his civil war against Pompey and the boni rump, so he later needed a special resolution of the senate declaring him imperator before he could celebrate his quadruple triumph; and in the social war the senate declared the consul Phillipus ‘Imperator’ even though he didn’t directly command armies into battle because the senate dared not acknowledge the achievements in battle of either of Phillipus’s Lieutenant-Generals: the legates Marius and Sulla – lest that lead to civil war (which came a couple of years later anyways); and

    3. Someone posted pictures of coins that Sulla minted that listed his titles as including that of Imperator.

    ESJ’s bullshit was aimed at my knowledge of the late Republic. For no other reason than she/he/they were/are a bitter and vacuous troll.

    However, once the evidence was presented ESJ mysteriously disappeared from bludger as a nom de plume. Funny that.

  3. a r:

    Friday, October 23, 2020 at 10:44 pm

    [‘If there was a faux pas, it was miniscule.’]

    That might be so, but oil, gas, and fracking are big in Pennsylvania, a state that the Dems enjoy a 6.1% margin. A slip of the tongue from a presidential candidate, though corrected, could have major consequences.

    ________________________________________________________

    Douglas & Milko:

    I agree with you that this election is extremely important, a Biden victory halting a move to the extreme-Right. The New Zealand outcome demonstrates that the Centre-Left is resurgent with a
    popular, articulate leader. So too in Oz, with the NT and ACT showing the way, and hopefully in Queensland at the end of the month. I don’t drink spirits, but I’ll have a merlot or two on November 4. And with that, I’m off for the night.

  4. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    22m
    I am sorry to pull y’all up here but I think the time has come for Gladys to officially become . . .

    a gate.

    #GladysGate

    You know it’s true.
    Quote Tweet

    Peter Harden – Fighting for real democracy
    @hardenuppete
    · 10h
    “Just a handful of emails from the office of the premier and that of her deputy, John Barilaro, are all that evidences how the $252m was allocated to councils in the months before the 2019 state election.” @GladysB #GladysBerejiklian #auspol

    https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/23/more-than-95-of-252m-nsw-grant-scheme-went-to-councils-in-coalition-seats-greens-say

  5. Bc
    The mug punters can understand a cash bonus of even thousands of dollars, but a watch that’s worth several thousand is an indulgence that says that the person receiving it doesn’t need it.

  6. D&M,
    Like you, I’m nervous about Trump and want to believe the polls but watching Obama’s body language doesn’t reassure me.
    My father was in the Dutch resistance and as a small child soon after the war he took me to see a bombed airfield near where we grew up. The reality of occupation and deprivation was evident by all I saw and heard. His anti-fascism words have rung in my ears over the years , making me rather hyper vigilant, aware of undercurrents .
    And with the likes of Morrison and Dutton not allowing us to leave Oz, the creeping loss of freedom is palpable. Having lived in various countries over the years, NZ has always my balm at stressful times like this but now my wings are clipped so may need to follow your example!!
    Though I do have my ‘escape patch’ -I bought a cheap small block of land in the Central West of NSW when helicopters were flying over my place in Sydney during the Iraq war…reminded me of the horrors of Vietnam and I just had to get away from it all.
    So planting some trees might be another option !!

  7. So In the States Democrats who doubt a Biden victory are called bedwetters , I wonder where we have heard that term before ?

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Enjoy!

    Peter Hartcher concludes this good contribution saying that a Trump victory would not be the end of history; but it might be the end of American democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-end-of-democracy-if-trump-loses-trumpism-still-wins-20201023-p5683g.html
    After saying that Melbourne is the only city of its size in the world to successfully suppress a second wave of the virus and, In any other setting, we might have celebrated that achievement, George Megalogenis explains why Australia needs a Biden White House. George is always worth reading.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/when-the-us-sneezes-we-get-a-cold-that-s-why-australia-needs-a-biden-whitehouse-20201023-p5680f.html
    Ross Gittins opines that the budget’s infrastructure spend is more about sex appeal than jobs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/budget-s-infrastructure-spend-more-about-sex-appeal-than-jobs-20201022-p567oe.html
    Jenna Prices accuses this government of having narrow priorities and using ideological warriors to do its work.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6980671/this-govt-has-narrow-priorities-and-uses-ideological-warriors-to-do-its-work/?cs=14350
    Paul Bongiorno wonders if Morrison will go the full term.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2020/10/23/will-scott-morrison-go-full-term/160341029910607
    The Australian’s Paul Kelly and Troy Bramston tells us that Prince Charles, the future king of Australia, told John Kerr in March 1976 that he supported his dismissal of the Whitlam government — the first known statement of support for the governor-general’s intervention by a member of the royal family.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/prince-charles-backed-sir-john-kerr-on-dismissal-of-gough-whitlam/news-story/9ce31c445e938dd751c4d582ed3331bf
    According to Jennifer Duke, top government executives face a sweeping inquiry into their pay and bonuses after the chairman of the corporate watchdog and boss of Australia Post stood aside in an extraordinary week of public sector expenses scandals. Morrison, it seems, is very sensitive to bad optics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-executives-face-pay-inquiry-after-extraordinary-week-20201023-p5684k.html
    Rob Harris tells us that Morrison “blew up” when he was told of Christine Holgate’s now infamous Cartier confession.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/public-servant-largesse-offends-the-pm-s-quiet-australians-20201023-p5682o.html
    Rick Morton examines what went wrong inside Australia Post.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/24/what-went-wrong-inside-australia-post/160345800010591
    Sidelined Australia Post boss Christine Holgate’s spending on corporate credit cards could be scrutinised as part of a wider probe into her expenses after she spent $19,950 on Cartier watches for employees, reports Lisa Visentin.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sidelined-australia-post-boss-to-collect-27-000-a-week-while-watch-investigation-underway-20201023-p567x2.html
    Former Australia Post chairman John Stanhope will tell Scott Morrison’s inquiry into the Cartier watch scandal the board approved a plan by CEO Christine Holgate for gifts to senior executives, but it did not sign off on luxury timepieces – which are now believed to have cost $19,950, not $12,000 as told to Senate estimates.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/holgate-bought-the-watches-former-australia-post-chair-john-stanhope-20201023-p567vj
    Nick Bonyhady outlines how a string of controversies has put a national anti-corruption body back in focus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/string-of-controversies-puts-national-anti-corruption-body-back-in-focus-20201022-p567pm.html
    Peter van Onselen lets fly at Morrison for delaying the introduction of a federal ICAC.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/pandemic-a-poor-excuse-for-delaying-integrity-commission/news-story/2283f9a764e48278481ef11c25fe6f72
    John Lord begins this contribution with, “The Prime Minister is never short on confidence, but mostly it borders on arrogance. This was on display in Question Time this week when Scott Morrison tried to defend his lack of progress on a Federal Integrity Commission. “Where the bloody hell is it?“ boomed Albo’s voice last Wednesday during question time.”
    https://theaimn.com/federal-integrity-commission-yes-no-maybe-too-busy/
    Dennis Atkins describes Scott Morrison as the master of the dark political arts. He says that as long as Morrison continues to use them almost unchallenged, his political supremacy will prevail.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/10/24/dennis-atkins-dark-political-arts/
    Karen Middleton digs into the controversial Western Sydney airport land deal.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/24/probe-western-sydney-airport-land-deal/160345800010603
    Land deals near Sydney’s second airport have embroiled the NSW and federal governments in separate scandals, feeding perceptions of favouritism explains The Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/the-big-guys-get-whatever-they-want-western-sydney-airport-wealthy-landowners-and-the-coalition
    An unimpressed Adele Ferguson explains why the ASIC expense scandal puts its chairman and deputy in the gun.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-shock-spotlight-turns-on-companies-regulator-20201023-p5683o.html
    Phil Coorey sees a certain irony that the two operatives handpicked by the government to clean up the banks are now mired in a mess of their own, their futures uncertain.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/asic-s-blunders-who-ll-bury-the-undertaker-20201023-p5681o
    Deborah Snow infers that the ice Berejiklian is skating on is getting thinner.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-holds-her-ground-to-fight-another-week-but-may-not-survive-another-mistake-20201023-p5681u.html
    Lucy Cormack reports that Gladys Berejiklian has told the upper house she won’t respond to questions about whether her former partner Daryl Maguire had a key to her house while a corruption inquiry into him is ongoing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/premier-s-written-response-to-parliament-over-house-keys-and-daryl-maguire-20201023-p567zm.html
    Berejiklian may have let her standards drop – but we can’t drop ours, writes Tim Soutphommasane.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-may-have-let-her-standards-drop-but-we-can-t-drop-ours-20201022-p567lw.html
    Elizabeth Farrelly looks at influence peddlers and how they operate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/an-influence-peddler-s-guide-to-the-limits-everyday-folk-expect-of-you-20201023-p567ui.html
    Angus Thomson writes that Gladys Berejiklian gave her lover Daryl Maguire’s Wagga Wagga electorate six grants totalling $40,000 from her discretionary fund, while an inquiry heard one of her advisers shredded documents showing the Premier’s approval of projects under another scheme.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/premier-gave-40-000-from-her-discretionary-fund-to-daryl-maguire-s-electorate-inquiry-20201023-p567w0.html
    The AFR’s health writer, Jill Margo, wonders if Australia been too successful in combating COVID-19.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/has-australia-been-too-successful-in-combating-covid-19-20201022-p567n7
    As Victoria finally emerges from its long pandemic winter there are calls for a new national road map to guide how we live with COVID-19 in 2021, writes the AFR’s Tom Burton.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/rethinking-the-national-road-map-to-the-new-covid-19-reality-20201022-p567sy
    Victoria’s head of contact tracing says workplaces are best placed to identify close contacts, but some health experts doubt the approach.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/workplaces-told-to-lead-contact-tracing-blitz-if-covid-infection-hits-20201023-p567vy.html
    While Victoria’s hotel quarantine inquiry has been marked by the poor recall of some politicians and senior bureaucrats, the seeds of disaster were likely sown several governments ago, suggests The Saturday Paper’s Royce Kurmelovs.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/24/victorias-hotel-quarantine-inquiry/160345800010614
    Margaret Simons says that the documentary trail does not back a sinister reading of the Victorian chief health officer’s actions around his evidence to the quarantine hotels inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/23/the-facts-dont-support-claims-of-a-brett-sutton-cover-up-over-emails
    Mathias Cormann wants to be a chameleon on climate change when we’ve got a bin fire instead of a plan, says Katharine Murphy who wonders if a late conversion somehow voids the finance minister’s previous statements and the Coalition’s decade of shame.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan
    The leader of a major church group says it is disingenuous to portray Australian Christians as victims of persecution in his criticism of a NSW religious freedom bill spurred by the Israel Folau controversy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/christians-are-not-victims-church-leader-slams-religious-freedom-bill-20201022-p567n4.html
    As politicians play a tough-on-crime game to win votes, pushing Australia’s incarceration rates ever upwards, an initiative led by high-profile patrons aims to reform the justice system and end a narrow-minded reliance on prison sentences, writes Mike Seccombe. He says, even by the usual standards of populist campaigning, Queensland Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington’s policy announcement this week was stunningly unsubtle.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/24/failures-the-criminal-justice-system/160345800010613
    Luke Henriques-Gomes tells us that Centrelink has been criticised for pursuing a disability pensioner living with a cognitive impairment over a $2,000 welfare debt he did not understand and that was caused by the agency’s own mistakes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/23/centrelink-pursued-disability-pensioner-for-welfare-debt-caused-by-administration-error
    Bevan Shields writes that Victoria Police says there is no evidence to warrant an investigation into allegations that Vatican funds were used in an attempt to secure the conviction of Cardinal George Pell.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/victoria-police-says-it-won-t-investigate-vatican-wire-transfer-claims-20201023-p5685c.html
    The compensation scheme for Victoria Police officers sexually harassed, assaulted or discriminated against at work has received 250 claims since it was launched less than a year ago, writes Henrietta Cook.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/harassment-claims-flood-police-compensation-scheme-20201015-p565fc.html
    Dominic Powell reports that Premier Investments chief executive Mark McInnes has pocketed $5.4 million in pay for the past financial year despite the retailer claiming tens of millions in JobKeeper subsidies. How’s THAT for optics, Scomo?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/premier-boss-pockets-hefty-bonus-after-claiming-70-million-in-jobkeeper-20201023-p5683p.html
    The Saturday Paper explains how research citing damage to the Great Barrier Reef to the Adani Carmichael mine is central to a legal request for the Environment minister to revoke approval of the mine.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2020/10/22/new-research-links-adani-mine-great-barrier-reef-bleaching
    The arms company at the centre of a deadly criminal saga and numerous global corruption scandals, Naval Group, was selected by the Australian government to build our new fleet of submarines – a deal heralded as ‘one of the world’s most lucrative defence contracts.’ How did this happen? In this special investigation Michelle Fahy discovers significant gaps in anti-bribery and corruption measures on this massive procurement project. The message communicated far and wide is that our standards are lax; grey areas are tolerated; and we’ll bend the rules and look the other way.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/murder-corruption-bombings-the-company-at-centre-of-australias-submarine-deal/
    Katie Burgess reports that public sector contracting has blown out to $4.8 billion in the last five years.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6980942/we-need-a-wide-ranging-inquiry-public-service-outsourcing-hits-48-billion/?cs=14350
    Australia’s LNP Government has developed a reliance on the Right-wing Trump Administration as a political model, writes Peter Henning.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-trump-victory-would-be-a-win-for-the-morrison-government,14440
    More than a half a million people in the US could die from COVID-19 by the end of February, but about 130,000 of those lives could be saved if everybody wore masks, according to estimates from a new modelling study.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-faces-half-a-million-covid-19-deaths-by-end-of-february-study-says-20201024-p5685p.html
    And the coronavirus is in resurgence all over Europe, where daily reported cases have more than doubled in 10 days, crossing 200,000 daily infections for the first time this week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/europe-warned-covid-19-is-spreading-quickly-further-curbs-loom-20201024-p5685n.html
    Marcello Antonini looks at the reasons behind Europe’s COVID-19 second wave inconsistencies.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/reasons-behind-europes-covid-19-second-wave-inconsistencies,14439
    Matthew Knott says Trump learned from his mistakes but Biden hag the last word in yesterday’s debate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-learns-from-his-mistakes-but-biden-has-the-last-word-in-debate-20201023-p56819.html
    The cosmic chasm between the president’s self-regard and how he comes across was on full display in a performance unlikely to halt his tailspin, opines Richard Wolffe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/22/donald-trump-reverts-to-type-in-debate-and-it-isnt-magnificently-brilliant
    This is a moment of truth for right wing populists – but don’t celebrate yet, warns Andy Beckett.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/23/rightwing-populists-populism-trump-defeat-brexit

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe


    John Shakespeare


    Andrew Dyson.

    Jon Kudelka

    Tom Jellett

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding


    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    Joe Benke

    Michael Leunig.

    From the US












  9. Greensborough Growler @ #1464 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 4:07 am

    Katherine Murphy on Cormann’s chameleon like change over climate change now that he needs green credentials to obtain his next gig.

    No mention that Cormann is cynical enough to want the job so he can stop the climate Change push in it’s tracks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan

    That would require him to have some sort of belief system.

    I’d say that he’s as tone deaf and blinkered as the rest of his fellow travelers in the LNP. He genuinely believes in his own magnificence, while remaining oblivious to the fact that he has a long record that is easily checked.

    The OECD may be a lot of things but one thing they’re not is fools. Cormann has as much chance of getting the gig as you or I have of being crowned Miss Universe.

  10. Brilliant work BK. Do you get enough sleep?
    Gladys has to be in trouble if the punters get onto her council funding regime, surely.
    Same-same doesn’t wash with the liberals now in power for 9 years in NSW and 18 of the last 24 years federally

  11. ‘There is a lot of money and power behind Trump.’

    Well, if there is, it’s not showing up as campaign donations.

    Even Trump has contributed less to his campaign (tens of thousands rather than tens of millions) than he did last time around.

  12. Driving up to work over the last week, one of the RN themes has been getting people to pick fruit.

    Most of the ‘experts’ seem to believe that the people who currently picking fruit are coming into the country solely for the purpose of picking fruit.

    So the National Farmers Association is pushing to have backpackers allowed in.

    No backpacker ever has said, “I am travelling to Australia to pick fruit.” Usually, Australia is one of several destinations they’re intending on visiting. They’re also intending to visit multiple states within Australia. The fruit picking is an incidental way of earning a few bob for a couple of weeks (it also helps with their visa).

    So even if backpackers are allowed in, they’re unlikely to come.

    The other solution was to allow South Pacific islanders, who come in on temporary visas for the purpose of picking fruit, a clearer path to permanent residency.

    Of course, I’m all for that…but if they get that, they won’t hang around to pick fruit. They’ll do what any other poorly paid migrant does and up sticks to the city, where they’re just as likely to find poorly paid work but more likely to find long term poorly paid work.

    btw, I notice at the bottom of the comment box a ‘save my name and email for the next time’ button. It doesn’t do anything.

  13. USA:

    Total Early Votes: 52,718,496 • Mail Ballots: 36,518,179 • In-Person Votes: 16,200,317

    Nationally, voters have cast 38.2% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

  14. 4 new virus cases in Melbourne

    Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services has issued a new health alert after recording four new cases of the virus.

    The fresh cases are in the city’s Preston area and one case is a student at East Preston Islamic College.

    Families and staff at East Preston Islamic College and Croxton School are being urged to get tested immediately even if they do not have symptoms, and stay home until they receive their results.

    Both schools have been closed for the next two weeks.

  15. ”Katherine Murphy on Cormann’s chameleon like change over climate change now that he needs green credentials to obtain his next gig.”

    You can’t be a Conservative in Australia if you advocate for the environment and effective climate action, although lip-service rather than outright denial is the now the official line. The extractive industries, especially coal, are just too powerful here. In fact it’s looking more like no one can aspire to power and advocate for effective action.

    But Cormann is about to leave the Australia-bubble for the OECD. He is simply adjusting his beliefs to suit the role he aspires to.

  16. As Trump fights to save his political career, another key part of his life — his business — is also under growing stress.

    In the next four years, Trump faces payment deadlines for more than $400 million in loans — just as the pandemic robs his businesses of customers and income, according to a Washington Post analysis of Trump’s finances. The bills coming due include loans on his Chicago hotel, his D.C. hotel and his Doral resort, all hit by a double whammy: Trump’s political career slowed their business, then the pandemic ground it down much further.

    If Trump is reelected, these loan-saddled properties could present a significant conflict of interest: The president will owe enormous sums to banks that his government regulates. National security experts say Trump’s debts to Deutsche Bank, a German company, and foreign deals may constitute security risks if they make him vulnerable to influence by foreign governments.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-debt-election/2020/10/23/411ab8c2-0e33-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html

  17. Danama Papers @ #1466 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 7:19 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1464 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 4:07 am

    Katherine Murphy on Cormann’s chameleon like change over climate change now that he needs green credentials to obtain his next gig.

    No mention that Cormann is cynical enough to want the job so he can stop the climate Change push in it’s tracks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan

    That would require him to have some sort of belief system.

    I’d say that he’s as tone deaf and blinkered as the rest of his fellow travelers in the LNP. He genuinely believes in his own magnificence, while remaining oblivious to the fact that he has a long record that is easily checked.

    The OECD may be a lot of things but one thing they’re not is fools. Cormann has as much chance of getting the gig as you or I have of being crowned Miss Universe.

    Cormann suffers from having been a big player in a very small pool in Australia.

    Given the massive amounts of welfare the Federal government has thrown at Covid recovery to date, you can say they have been ideologically flexible in their approach to that problem. So, a Federal Government conversion to green causes would happen if the Libs thought not doing it would loosen their hands from the levers of power.

    What stops them at the moment is the power influences that run the Government be it the MSM, the Miners and other Big business interests. So, the Government can be corrupt, hypocritical, inconsistent. But, losing power is everything.

    They have never been punished electorally for not having an Energy policy. So, why would they bother when there is no political advantage?

  18. BK

    What a picture of the world! Thank you.

    I wonder exactly who thought Cormann suitable for the OECD gig. He must have great confidence in his ability to deceive if he thought of it himself.

  19. So the Australia Post watches came to $20 000. I wonder if there would be much of an outcry if the bonuses had been in cash instead?

    In theory, cash bonuses would be taxed as income. I suspect the watches did not attract any fringe benefits tax.

  20. jaeger,
    cheers.
    I’m a bit surprised that 156 million people saw that on youtube before I did.
    Bloody amazing.

    Ditto! “How have I not seen this before?!” (It popped up in the suggested videos.)

    In case you missed it: Wintergatan – Marble Machine (music instrument using 2000 marbles)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvUU8joBb1Q

    Oh, and it looks like they’re building/rebuilding a new one: Marble Machine X.
    https://www.youtube.com/c/Wintergatan/videos

  21. A sign of how things are going for Team Trump: Fox News is going hell for leather on the Hunter Biden fake news.

    A month before the 2016 presidential election, WikiLeaks released hacked emails from John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

    Last week, The New York Post published an article featuring emails from a laptop purportedly owned by Hunter Biden, the son of the Democratic presidential nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr. The emails, about business dealings in Ukraine, have not been independently verified.

    So how did cable news treat these two caches, which were both aimed at Democratic candidates during the heights of their presidential campaigns?

    The answer: Fox News is giving more airtime to the unverified Hunter Biden emails than it did to the hacked emails from Mr. Podesta in 2016, according to an analysis from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, which studies disinformation.

    While Fox News’s mentions of the word “WikiLeaks” took up a peak of 198 seconds in one day in mid-October 2016, the news channel’s references to “Hunter” reached 273 seconds one day last week, according to the analysis. Fox News did not respond to a request for comment.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#fox-news-is-covering-hunter-biden-claims-more-than-2016-wikileaks-emails

  22. Here’s the Giuliani Borat piss take video for anyone so inclined. It’s so unbelievable that it’s hard to imagine he wasn’t in on the game, but apparently not, he’s just another member of Trump’s coterie for whom reality is whatever you want it to be.

    https://youtu.be/5MLoNN8fGwk

  23. Morrison issues a chilling threat to the public service – upset me and you will suffer the consequences. He is moving closer to dictator status all the time.

    Prime Minister puts public sector on notice after extraordinary week

    Scott Morrison said his decision to stand aside the Australia Post chief for giving four executives Cartier watches worth $19,950 should act as a ‘‘rocket’’ to all heads of government agencies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-executives-face-pay-inquiry-after-extraordinary-week-20201023-p5684k.html

  24. Totally LOL. 2020 is definitely the year when you can’t tell satire from reality on the internet. I follow Scarfolk Council Fb page and they are most definitely satire.

    Scarfolk Council@Scarfolk·
    2h
    You know it’s 2020 when the Pennsylvania state treasury retweets Scarfolk and people aren’t sure whether or not the treasury truly understands what Scarfolk is.

  25. This will not be well received but I’m going to say it anyway.
    From all reports, Maguire was always looking for a quick & easy way to make a buck. He’s cunning but not bright.
    imo, Maguire is the dodgy wheeling n dealing front man backed by a smart influential silent partner.
    Not a victim of a schmoozy crook.

  26. citizen @ #1487 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 8:41 am

    Morrison issues a chilling threat to the public service – upset me and you will suffer the consequences. He is moving closer to dictator status all the time.

    Prime Minister puts public sector on notice after extraordinary week

    Scott Morrison said his decision to stand aside the Australia Post chief for giving four executives Cartier watches worth $19,950 should act as a ‘‘rocket’’ to all heads of government agencies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-executives-face-pay-inquiry-after-extraordinary-week-20201023-p5684k.html

    ‘He is moving closer to dictator status all the time.’
    Wait ’till Labor gets wind of this!
    There’ll be hell to pay.
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .Hell I tells ya%^$$@!!!!$#$@!!@#$%!!!

  27. GG

    The thing that most offended me in that short video was the way in which the two men treated her like a child, and “manhandled” her without her permission.

  28. Itza:

    It’s hard to tell from the edit of that scene whether Giuliani knew it was a set up. I suspect towards the end he realised.

  29. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sutton-s-career-in-balance-as-hotel-quarantine-saga-enters-final-lap-20201023-p567xo.html#comments

    Another Chip LeGrand attack piece. They are not going to be happy until they force Sutton out, but it is so wrong. The guy is a public servant not a pollie and to me the whole who knew about the security guards is a nitpicking witchhunt now.
    There was a piece in the Guardian saying exactly the opposite last night. Luckly the comments on the Age article are basically supportive of Sutton and negative towards the premise of the article.

  30. lizzie @ #1492 Saturday, October 24th, 2020 – 9:15 am

    GG

    The thing that most offended me in that short video was the way in which the two men treated her like a child, and “manhandled” her without her permission.

    The sad thing is that in their minds they were showing genuine empathy and care for that woman. But, basically there attitude was to shut her up and not allow her to ruin their photo opportunity.

  31. The United States has set a new record for the highest number of new coronavirus infections in a single day, hours after President Donald Trump insisted once again that the virus was “going away”.

    America reported 77,640 new cases on Thursday, according to NBC News, surpassing its previous record of 75,723 set on July 29.

    It also suffered another 921 deaths, with the total death toll now well over 220,000.

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