Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

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  1. phylactella says: Monday, October 19, 2020 at 12:27 pm

    I don’t know if this has been posted earlier – but is an important article.
    I read about 600 “scientists” signing the “Great Barrington Declaration” and looked into it (a little) before forming my opinion.
    “Herd immunity” is a hoax. Anyone who uses it is being influenced by the far right and extremists.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/18/covid-herd-immunity-funding-bad-science-anti-lockdown.
    I heard on the wireless that “herd immunity” has NEVER happened. Not with flu, or polio, or measles, or HIV. Coronavirus is with humanity for ever. We hope to keep it low with testing, treatment, and vaccination.

    Herd immunity can work, if the vaccine is effective enough and take up rates are high enough

  2. Wouldn’t the obvious thing to do be providing domestic airlines with a blacklist of New Zealand arrivals?
    And I know who we’re dealing with here.

  3. guytaur says Monday, October 19, 2020 at 12:55 pm

    I agree with the comments on the incompetence of Dutton’s department on travel bubble restrictions.

    Just a reminder. New Zealand is in more danger from returning Kiwis than Australians are from Kiwis.

    Which is probably why New Zealand are requiring anyone entering from Australia to quarantine for two weeks.

    Didn’t New Zealand recently have a positive test from a dockworker?

  4. Player One @ #873 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:47 am

    Late Riser @ #815 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 11:14 pm

    The shift is in the composition of the anti-Labor vote.

    That fits with my observation of an LNP/Green battle in Maiwar.

    That’s one way of looking at it.

    Another is that while the electorate is shifting to the left, Labor is not attracting those votes.

    Sorry, I’ve been out.

    What I observed was both LNP and Greens pushing environmental themes in their marketing material, in a seat which ought to be LNP (42% primary vote at the previous election) but which the Greens won. In the case of the LNP their material was 100% explicitly environmental themes. The Greens material was less than 50% explicitly environmental, and included points about the economy, infrastructure, health, education and taxes. And Labor doesn’t appear to be trying in that seat. Two weeks into this election I’ve spotted a total of 2 Labor corflutes in Maiwar, and both of them on the same fence 20m apart.

    So to me at any rate it looks as if the LNP see the Greens as their main threat, and vice versa. I suspect that in comfortably off professional suburbs urban greening is an easy sell, and supporting a Green candidate who also talks confidently about money, schools and health is an easy decision.

  5. Whenever I am upset at my partner, I send a pic of Penny Wong looking at her most fierce and a comment like….do you want to discuss this when I get home?…. 🙂

    He usually backs down immediately!

  6. [Bruce Guthrie
    @brucerguthrie
    ·
    39m
    Josh and his mates are really good at shooting the wounded, but they go missing when the fighting is at its most fierce. Divisive, corrosive politics straight out of the Trump playbook. #CovidVic]

    Josh is deeply insulting by accusing Dan of “callous indifference”.
    Robodebt, anyone? Newstart?

  7. bc @ #1047 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 11:58 am

    Herd immunity can work, if the vaccine is effective enough and take up rates are high enough

    Yes, but you have to actually possess a (safe and effective, and reasonably long-lasting) vaccine first. The only path to herd immunity without such a vaccine leaves millions of people dead.

    And also, reported cases of reinfection call into question the “reasonably long-lasting” part. Possible that we won’t get a vaccine that confers long-term immunity.

  8. I’m so happy that the Tudge puppets and Hunt puppets in the Vic press pack are showcasing themselves day after day to the good people of Victoria.

    It truly is a thing of beauty to see Andrews and Sutton whack each and every delivery from Tudge and Hunt (via their megaphones) to the boundary.

    It’s a run fest for Victorians to witness directly. 🙂

  9. Unexpected support for Dan.

    Stephen Mayne
    @MayneReport
    ·
    3h
    Well done to
    @3AWNeilMitchell for challenging @JoshFrydenberg just now on why he was continuing to throw rocks from afar rather than sitting down and working with the Victorian Government on the re-opening strategy. Everyone is sick of the finger pointing and blame shifting.

  10. It seems Border Force are saying “nothing to do with us.”

    “Once a passenger leaves the international terminal, once they depart the customs-controlled area at the back of the baggage hall, they cease to be an international passenger or traveller – they’ve entered Australia.”

  11. lizzie,
    “Josh is deeply insulting by accusing Dan of “callous indifference”.
    Robodebt, anyone? Newstart?”

    How about just, “LNP anyone?”

  12. lizzie @ #759 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 12:11 pm

    Brett Sutton has 10 (12?) meetings each day and the journos are picking at him on details. Has anyone asked Morrison about his Sunday activities? No need to ask.

    Brett Sutton had the press puppets apologising to him at the end for having to ask their masters’ questions. Very embarrassing for them.

  14. Will have to check this at 1:10 of senate estimates when its put up.
    It looks like the $30M was budgeted before the valuation of the land.
    If correct that’s going to be dramatic.

  16. Firefox @ #699 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 11:02 am

    ‘ACT gain a Greens power pointer’

    Greens leader Adam Bandt says his party can hold the balance of power in both Queensland and federally after his party’s historic win in the Australian Capital Territory election.

    With the ACT Greens set to win five to six seats in the ACT and a nearly 4 per cent vote swing to them, Mr Bandt is now focusing on winning three inner-Brisbane seats in Queensland.

    The ACT Greens will likely return to a coalition government with Canberra’s Labor Party – which has controlled the national capital for nearly 20 years – and possibly gain more ministries with their increased representation.

    Mr Bandt has set the target of winning three seats at the October 31 Queensland state election, where Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk may be forced to deal with the Greens to form a majority if they beat her inner-city MPs and she loses electorates elsewhere.

    “We are hopeful of not just keeping the Queensland seat of Mawar, but gaining South Brisbane and McConnel,” he told The Australian on Sunday. “The Greens are winning votes off of both Labor and the Liberals, not just because of our focus on climate action but because we’re pushing more public investment in government schools and infrastructure.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-look-north-after-act-win/news-story/9d210ad69ad80ee0b3fd87a82505eb25

    Geez imagine the hissy fits from the fossil fuel puppets in Qld Labor if the Greens win the BoP. Hilarious.

  17. Five New Zealand nationals have been caught entering South Australia just days after New South Wales’ trans-Tasman travel bubble opened. #7NEWS

  19. The amount of money the heirs of Hancock and Wright are making is obscene: https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/clash-of-the-dynasties-pilbara-s-role-as-kingmaker-for-nation-s-wealthy-makes-it-a-risk-worth-fighting-over-20201012-p564by.html

    Way back in the 20th Century, when I was working for Hamersley Iron, I remember being told that Tom Price was not on one of Lang Hancock’s leases, but because of the agreement with Hancock, they had to pay royalties anyway.

    At the time the largest mine was Mt Whaleback in Newman, owned by BHP subsidiary Mount Newman Mining. This had originally been a CRA* lease and they had found ore at the site. However, the head geologist at CRA thought this was just a shallow alluvial deposit and so they gave up the lease. BHP came in, did a bit more drilling, and discovered that it was actually a hidden ore body the rest is history. Geology is a science, but it’s not an exact science. The plans geologists work off aren’t called interpretations without reason.

    * CRA was half owned by RTZ and owned Hamersley Iron. In 1995 CRA and RTZ merged to form Rio Tinto.

  27. Ar

    To distinguish from other lockdowns effective lockdown works.
    NSW and Victoria are being effective at the tracing through sewerage and Victoria’s effort has worked because it was all about effectiveness in tracing and stopping transmission of the virus.

    I would include NSW but am unsure about testing rates. Queensland is a contrast there.

  31. Albo did a presser this morning where he stood up for the labor states and explained that labor had supported the government and the LNP should not be using the pandemic for political gain.

  34. The Age. Shaun Carney.
    But the Premier is unlikely to ever enjoy a sustained return to that elevated status because of what happened in Victoria in the winter, as a second wave of infections took hold because his government mismanaged its hotel quarantine program. No matter how much good news Andrews delivers, that policy failure and an unwillingness to truly own up to it and explain how it happened will continue to weigh down his government.
    ________________
    Absolutely nailed it.
    The Andrews govt will forever be associated with hotel quarantine debacle. They may even win the next election but it will never be the same again. We are probably going to end up like NSW when labor held on for 1 term too long.

  35. Taylormade

    So Andrews has said he will act on the results of the enquiry, which Libs and their media backers have been analysing as if it had already happened. What a shock it would be if the result isn’t what you and they hope for.

  36. Stephen Mayne is a bit different from the usual Lib, he is as far as I can see, honest, ethical and willing to call out poor corporate or political behaviour.

    I am surprised that he still supports team blue…

  37. Taylormade @ #1084 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 10:51 am

    The Age. Shaun Carney.
    But the Premier is unlikely to ever enjoy a sustained return to that elevated status because of what happened in Victoria in the winter, as a second wave of infections took hold because his government mismanaged its hotel quarantine program. No matter how much good news Andrews delivers, that policy failure and an unwillingness to truly own up to it and explain how it happened will continue to weigh down his government.
    ________________
    Absolutely nailed it.
    The Andrews govt will forever be associated with hotel quarantine debacle. They may even win the next election but it will never be the same again. We are probably going to end up like NSW when labor held on for 1 term too long.

    Only really stupid partisans in the fox / sky sewer think this.

  39. Andrew Probyn coming down solidly on the side of Bad Dan.

    Edit: All from the pov of NSW is the gold standard and Dan just playing politics. He’s accepted the opinion of Border Force that overseas visitors can go anywhere they like in Oz.

  40. Albo made a mistake not moving his pawns to canberra since before the budget.
    If the Immi minister is away, then labor should start playing rough and withdraw pairs and force votes.

  42. Taylormade @ #1084 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 1:51 pm

    The Age. Shaun Carney.
    But the Premier is unlikely to ever enjoy a sustained return to that elevated status because of what happened in Victoria in the winter, as a second wave of infections took hold because his government mismanaged its hotel quarantine program. No matter how much good news Andrews delivers, that policy failure and an unwillingness to truly own up to it and explain how it happened will continue to weigh down his government.
    ________________
    Absolutely nailed it.
    The Andrews govt will forever be associated with hotel quarantine debacle. They may even win the next election but it will never be the same again. We are probably going to end up like NSW when labor held on for 1 term too long.

    C’mon, don’t give up on DimTim !

    Once he rolls O’Brien, then lookout Dan !!

  43. lizzie @ #1089 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 2:01 pm

    Andrew Probyn coming down solidly on the side of Bad Dan.

    Edit: All from the pov of NSW is the gold standard and Dan just playing politics. He’s accepted the opinion of Border Force that overseas visitors can go anywhere they like in Oz.

    I thought ABC employees weren’t allowed to take political sides ..?

  45. Rex D

    The problem is that Probyn actually thinks he’s being objective. He even said that Dan has finally cracked under the pressure.

  46. On matters psephological, I am quite disturbed by the difference between final opinion polls in NZ v. the actual election result.

    From Adrian Beaumont in The Conversation “… but final polls understated Labour’s lead; they won by 22 points, not the 15 in final polls.*”

    It was great to see Ardern do well, but this amount of inaccuracy in the polling suggests that there are a large cohort people who are either not being reached by polls, or who are literally making their mind up on the vibe in the last few hours.

    Could these voters also have also gone the other way, delivering an upset loss for Adern? Is politics now becoming very volatile?

    Opinion polls are important. They shape the story that political parties tell when they try to get our vote. An individual’s estimation of how likely a party is to win can affect how they vote – some people prefer governments to have small margins, and so will vote against a party that seems too likely to win.

    These are just my musings, but would be interested on other people’s takes on this polling discrepancy. Does this have any lessons for the upcoming US election?

    There are articles about saying that Trump is likely to win the electoral college vote, because there are a large number of non-college educated whites in crucial states who have recently registered, bringing many new Trump voters into the picture, and that these voters are being missed by opinion polls.

    *https://theconversation.com/labo-u-r-easily-wins-in-both-new-zealand-and-the-act-and-leads-in-queensland-147985

  48. Rex D

    Richard Willingham, ABC Melbourne, has shown a distinct prejudice against VicLab from the start of the pandemic. It’s not just the way he emphasises the worst events, it’s also his tone of voice. There’s a lot revealed in a reporter’s tone. As shown in the Dan daily pressers.

  50. So Labor has set childcare as its ticket to an outer urb led pathway to Govt.

    That’s a reasonable tactic, that doesn’t upset the fossil fuel puppet masters in the party.

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