Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

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  1. The New York Post, not to be confused with the New York Times or the Washington Post, seems to be New York’s Daily Telegraph or Herald Sun.

  2. c/Guardian

    [Over in home affairs estimates, Greens senator Nick McKim tried to ask a series of questions over last month’s federal court decision in a visa matter – but didn’t get very far.

    In a scathing decision, Justice Geoffrey Flick warned the acting immigration minister, Alan Tudge, he “cannot place himself above the law”. The judgment included the following line:

    “In the absence of explanation, the minister has engaged in conduct which can only be described as criminal.”

    McKim’s questions were rebuffed by home affairs officials, who said it would be inappropriate to weigh in on the details because they were subject to appeal. Tudge has denied any suggestion of improper conduct in these proceedings.]

    Talk about going back for your hat re the appeal.

    The Full Federal Court could lay into the Minister big time. Through three proceedings in the Federal Court, the minister has not explained why he did not release someone in custody when there was an obligation to do so!

  3. Shellbell @ #953 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:40 am

    c/Guardian

    [Over in home affairs estimates, Greens senator Nick McKim tried to ask a series of questions over last month’s federal court decision in a visa matter – but didn’t get very far.

    In a scathing decision, Justice Geoffrey Flick warned the acting immigration minister, Alan Tudge, he “cannot place himself above the law”. The judgment included the following line:

    “In the absence of explanation, the minister has engaged in conduct which can only be described as criminal.”

    Difficult to imagine a labor minister making it to the end of the day, let alone weeks.

    If anyone needs an asymmetry example of Australian media and politics that even the weakest most biased mind should be able to understand it is this Trudge one.

  4. Penny Wong got close to losing her shit trying to overcome a departmental stonewall over the $30m Badgerys Creek land deal. She will be back for a second serve no doubt.

  5. BK @ #956 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:50 am

    Penny Wong got close to losing her shit trying to overcome a departmental stonewall over the $30m Badgerys Creek land deal. She will be back for a second serve no doubt.

    These public servants should just be jailed for contempt. I don’t care so much about Penny, she can look after herself, but that our Parliament is consistently treated so badly by public servants is one of the clearest indicators just how corrupt and dead our democracy is. It isn’t a leading indicator, this is a ‘it is already dead’ indicator.

  6. I am NOT African!

    Well, I guess we all are, I suppose.

    Yeah, me neither, but my toes are by that image. My ginger beard, blue eyes and blonde eyebrows would suggest something else. I would comment on my hair but, ahem… of what remains, its original colour has gone missing, and that’s a fairly universal male thing.

  7. If you listened to the Liberal Opposition in Queensland, and some of the federal members or the Victorian Opposition, Michael O’Brien and others, you would have seen a complete opening up of border, a removal of restrictions – and have a look at what has happened in Europe.

    For an “alternative Victoria” where there were minimal restrictions, look at Indiana, a US State with a population of 6.7 million, very close to that of Victoria. New Covid cases have been running at over 500 per day for 3 months. It is currently over 2,000 and rising sharply.

    Or Tennessee (pop 6.8 million), where new cases have been running mostly between 1,000 and 2,000 per day since the end of June.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/tennessee/

  8. Surging Greens poised to push Canberra further left

    Re-elected ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr faces being pushed further to the left after the Greens gained seats and will continue to support a minority Labor government in the territory.

    While Mr Barr extended Labor’s grip on power to 23 years by the time of the next poll, the Greens looked to have won four seats and potentially could finish up with as many as six.

    Mr Barr and Greens leader Shane Rattenbury confirmed they would begin negotiations this week on a new agreement, which could see the minor party gain additional ministers. Mr Rattenbury already serves in the cabinet.

    In his speech to supporters on Saturday night, Mr Rattenbury flagged the need for a “reset” in the party’s relationship with Labor, despite the ACT’s reputation as the most progressive enclave in Australia.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/surging-greens-poised-to-push-canberra-further-left-20201018-p5664i

  9. Labor scores its sixth ACT election victory in a row. But the big winners are the Greens

    New Zealanders were not the only ones to go to the polls over the weekend. On Saturday, the Australian Capital Territory also voted, returning Labor for a sixth consecutive term after almost 20 years in office.

    Andrew Barr, after almost six years as chief minister, has won a further four years in office.

    The result confirms Canberra’s reputation as the most progressive jurisdiction in the Australia.

    Labor’s vote remained steady, despite being the nation’s longest-serving government, albeit under different leaders.

    The big winner on the night was Barr’s coalition partner, the Greens, led by Minister for Climate Change, Sustainability and Corrections, Shane Rattenbury.

    The Greens earned a swing of 3.4%. It looks like the party will go from two to at least three seats, with the possibility of up to six in the 25-seat Legislative Assembly as counting is confirmed.

    https://theconversation.com/labor-scores-its-sixth-act-election-victory-in-a-row-but-the-big-winners-are-the-greens-148259

  10. Re Zerlo @10:55. (like button / upvote)

    Actually, given that Andrew Bolt’s job is to spread right wing crap to further his master’s political and commercial agenda, some could argue that Bolt is good at his job.

  11. not sure if its been mentioned before, but heard a good Haloween description of Trump:

    orange on the outside, hollow inside, and you throw him out in November.

  12. ‘ACT gain a Greens power pointer’

    Greens leader Adam Bandt says his party can hold the balance of power in both Queensland and federally after his party’s historic win in the Australian Capital Territory election.

    With the ACT Greens set to win five to six seats in the ACT and a nearly 4 per cent vote swing to them, Mr Bandt is now focusing on winning three inner-Brisbane seats in Queensland.

    The ACT Greens will likely return to a coalition government with Canberra’s Labor Party – which has controlled the national capital for nearly 20 years – and possibly gain more ministries with their increased representation.

    Mr Bandt has set the target of winning three seats at the October 31 Queensland state election, where Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk may be forced to deal with the Greens to form a majority if they beat her inner-city MPs and she loses electorates elsewhere.

    “We are hopeful of not just keeping the Queensland seat of Mawar, but gaining South Brisbane and McConnel,” he told The Australian on Sunday. “The Greens are winning votes off of both Labor and the Liberals, not just because of our focus on climate action but because we’re pushing more public investment in government schools and infrastructure.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-look-north-after-act-win/news-story/9d210ad69ad80ee0b3fd87a82505eb25

  13. ABC News 24

    Prof Sharon Loyd (I think) from Victoria

    She says that his is our only chance of getting this right and supports Dan Andrews being cautious because there is no chance of a further lockdown.

  14. If anyone would like to read a sober reflection on what may happen if another ‘judicial selection’ for POTUS occurs after November 3, this is the place to read all about it:

    Will America tear itself apart? The Supreme Court, 2020 elections and a looming constitutional crisis

    Supreme Court politics and 2020 election fears are heating up the debate over the future of the US and its founding creed

    Edward Luce in Washington OCTOBER 15 2020

    At the start of each academic year, Rosa Brooks asks her freshmen students what they think of the US constitution. Almost all express pride that — at 233 years of age — America has by far the world’s oldest constitution. Brooks, a professor at Georgetown Law School in Washington DC, then asks: “Presumably you think it would also be great if our surgeons worked off the oldest neurological manuals, or if our ships steered by the oldest navigational charts?” The question usually stumps her students. What, she probes, is so special about the oldness of a document as opposed to its usefulness? Clear answers are rarely forthcoming.

    Until recently, Brooks’ line of inquiry was confined to mildly subversive corners of academia. Americans have always revered their constitution like a quasi-religious set of commandments handed down from Mount Sinai. In reality, much of it was a messy, though ingenious, compromise between the slave states and the non-slave-owning states. America’s famous separation of powers between the legislature (Congress), the executive (the presidency) and the judiciary (the Supreme Court) was a sophisticated design to check the power of one branch of government against another. The goal was to prevent the return of kingly absolutism rather than create a mass democracy. “Ambition must be made to counteract ambition,” wrote James Madison, one of the key founding fathers.

    The court quickly turned into the lofty arbiter of what was permissible under the constitution. The great 20th-century jurist Felix Frankfurter mocked the perception of justices on the Supreme Court on which he served as “impersonal vehicles of revealed truth”. William Taft, former president and chief justice, described the US judiciary in general as “high-priest[s] in the temple of justice”.

    The court remains the least disrespected among America’s three branches, though America’s veneration for it has been waning over the past generation. Since Donald Trump took office, however, the US left’s hostility to conservative constitutionalism has grown sharply. Trump’s pact with the Christian right has resulted in two new Supreme Court justices and a third is in the pipeline. Trump’s actions have also shattered faith in the idea of checks and balances. From the president’s refusal to reveal his tax returns or to resolve conflicts over his family business to his blanket denial of co-operation with congressional oversight, the separation of powers has acted as scant check on Trump’s actions.

    https://www.ft.com/content/b159bce5-83e7-4f8e-ab0d-4123660ab539

  15. Alpha Zerosays:
    Monday, October 19, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Cat,
    Susan Alberti is a businesswoman. Very vocal in her support of Michael Sukkar, former Vice President of the Western Bulldogs Football Club. Doesn’t get along with the president Peter Gordon for some reason. She is a turd of the highest order…
    ________________
    Lovely. Am reminded again that no one hates like the left.

  16. The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

  17. Taylormade @ #972 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:11 am

    Alpha Zerosays:
    Monday, October 19, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Cat,
    Susan Alberti is a businesswoman. Very vocal in her support of Michael Sukkar, former Vice President of the Western Bulldogs Football Club. Doesn’t get along with the president Peter Gordon for some reason. She is a turd of the highest order…
    ________________
    Lovely. Am reminded again that no one hates like the left.

    And how would you describe your slanted views?

  18. Taylormade @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:11 am

    Alpha Zerosays:
    Monday, October 19, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Cat,
    Susan Alberti is a businesswoman. Very vocal in her support of Michael Sukkar, former Vice President of the Western Bulldogs Football Club. Doesn’t get along with the president Peter Gordon for some reason. She is a turd of the highest order…
    ________________
    Lovely. Am reminded again that no one hates like the left.

    They don’t hate anywhere near as well, or as much as the radical far right (the LNP, tories, republicans), but as in all other things are much more honest about it.

  19. WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

  20. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

  21. WeWantPaul @ #981 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

    So how does that suggest the Court is broken.

  22. Zero local cases in NSW. Yet again, what looked like a couple of potentially dangerous clusters appear to have been contained. It’s clearly not just luck.

    With Victoria winning the containment battle as well, and assuming this continues for a couple more weeks, I think there’s a strong case for easing all state border restrictions.

  23. Is this the argument?

    AAT upholds appeal against refusal of visa (or cancellation of it) but the Dept, (as gaoler), says AAT then purported to issue (or reinstate) a visa but could not do so hence no obligation to release?

  24. I am with Dr Norman Swan’s view.

    Despite my personal view that the intervention to stop the spread of the virus could have been done more humanely with the same results at the public towers there’s no doubting results.

    Victoria is a stand out at stopping a second wave.

    Europeans and other jurisdictions are not looking so good.

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #984 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:21 am

    WeWantPaul @ #981 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

    So how does that suggest the Court is broken.

    A purely partisan court is problematic res ipsa loquitur, because they are pursuing a partisan objective rather than rule of law, that is very broken, if not pretty common. But to use that power to stop / reverse a democratic outcome, it tinpot dictatorship jurisprudence, it doesn’t come any more broken than that.

  26. Shellbell @ #988 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:23 am

    Is this the argument?

    AAT upholds appeal against refusal of visa (or cancellation of it) but the Dept, (as gaoler), says AAT then purported to issue (or reinstate) a visa but could not do so hence no obligation to release?

    It is more like Trump, you just can’t scan what they are saying using normal filters.

  27. The same broken court went on to declare ‘racism over’ in an effort to assist efforts to supercharge white supremacy, you don’t get much more broken than that.

  28. WeWantPaul @ #989 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:28 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #984 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:21 am

    WeWantPaul @ #981 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

    So how does that suggest the Court is broken.

    A purely partisan court is problematic res ipsa loquitur, because they are pursuing a partisan objective rather than rule of law, that is very broken, if not pretty common. But to use that power to stop / reverse a democratic outcome, it tinpot dictatorship jurisprudence, it doesn’t come any more broken than that.

    😆

    But they made a good decision.

    It was the Democrats that had the flawed case.

  29. What is broken is relying on a centuries old document in a country whose population diverges into two politically based tribes to the point that updating or changing the document or legislating around it has become near impossible.

  30. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #995 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    WeWantPaul @ #989 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:28 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #984 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:21 am

    WeWantPaul @ #981 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

    So how does that suggest the Court is broken.

    A purely partisan court is problematic res ipsa loquitur, because they are pursuing a partisan objective rather than rule of law, that is very broken, if not pretty common. But to use that power to stop / reverse a democratic outcome, it tinpot dictatorship jurisprudence, it doesn’t come any more broken than that.

    😆

    But they made a good decision.

    It was the Democrats that had the flawed case.

    That Gore had legitimately won the election was deeply flawed for the Supreme Court.

  31. A non partisan and truly democratic United States would look like New Zealand. Not the mess it’s in now. Maybe even like Scandinavia.

    True democracy restrains the power of corporations with regulation.

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