Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

Comments Page 19 of 27
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  4. So Susan Alberti was the loony I referred to earlier, I take it.

    I take it she is widely respected for a number of reasons. That doesnt mean the interviewer cant pull her up on things.

    And the way she was talking it is obvious who she has been listening to, in a bubble of hard right business leaders and Liberal Party toadies.

  8. Maybe not as bad as the US Post Office under Trump but Australia Post seems to be headed that way:

    Australia Post chairman Lucio Di Bartolomeo has turned down a series of invitations to front a Senate estimates hearing this week following a string of recent controversies at the scandal-plagued organisation.

    Mr Di Bartolomeo, who was appointed chair of the board of directors by the Morrison government in November 2019, has instead offered to take any questions from senators in writing.

    He has also forbidden his deputy, Andrea Staines, from attending in his place as well as board member Mario D’Orazio.

    The no-show has led the federal opposition to label the current board “a swamp of former Liberal politicians and party hacks”.

    Four members of the nine-member board – Michael Ronaldson, Tony Nutt, Bruce McIver and Deidre Willmott – have strong links to the Liberal Party, having served either in Parliament or in an official capacity.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-post-chair-board-members-refuse-to-face-senate-estimates-grilling-20201018-p5669a.html

  9. C@t
    Who is Susan Alberti and how did she score an interview on RN this morning!?!
    She probably rang Ita and “kindly” asked to be interviewed.

  10. Bloody hell!

    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    5m
    Just wow. Really helpful of @M_McCormackMP to admit Morrison government ignored Victoria’s request to be left out of NZ travel bubble because they think cases are low enough. So this is the federal govt purposely undermining Andrews’ cautious plan to avoid third wave. Thought so!

    Will MickMack be reprimanded for telling the truth?

  11. I have read that the US postal service is doing OK. Most of the worst of the attempts to slow down the mail have been stopped and postal service workers are determined to get the mail through. Trumps and DeJoys efforts may be backfiring.

  13. “That’s one way of looking at it.

    Another is that while the electorate is shifting to the left, Labor is not attracting those votes.”

    ***

    Something you all need to remember is that The Sex Party did not run in this ACT election. The ~3% they picked up in 2016 has gone somewhere and it’s likely the Greens picked up a fair chunk of it.

    The strong surge in the Greens’ primary vote is even more impressive when you consider that there is a crowded field of left wing minors in the ACT, including the new Canberra Progressives party which picked up +2%, Animal Justice, etc… They all gained positive swings. They are growing and we are growing. That’s a really good sign for the left.

  14. From KK on the Grauniad blog:

    The government, the Morrison government, will also face scrutiny from senators about their dodgy deals. Their dodgy deals at Western Sydney airport, their real estate rorts, their sports rorts, and Angus Taylor… if there’s a scandal, Angus Taylor will find his way into it

    😆

  17. Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    · 14h
    The Morrison Government spent $90 million attempting to privatise Australia’s visa processing system… then walked away from it.

    Now they have no plan to fix Australia’s broken visa processing system which is separating Australians from their loved ones.

    A few million here, a billion or two there. They just throw money away.

  18. Simon Katich @ #912 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 6:35 am

    Confessions @ #903 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    SK:

    Yes, you’d rather be Biden than Trump in Wisconsin.

    I am amazed Biden has held onto his bump in the national polls for this long. What is it? 10 days without a reversion. The 10pt gap is, if anything, growing.

    I’d like to think that every time Trump displays reckless irresponsibility by holding rallies and talking smack about public health experts that it moves another 0.5% or so towards Biden.

  19. And I just kindly but firmly replied to Australia Post’s importuning of me to write a review of their mail redirection efforts. 😀

    I gave them a 1 out of 10 for their effort.

  20. Albanese and Labor are doing the right things this morning ,

    If the libs/nats were interested in helping Australians get into the work force, why are they discriminating against the over 35’s

  21. Confessions @ #901 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    Simon Katich @ #912 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 6:35 am

    Confessions @ #903 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    SK:

    Yes, you’d rather be Biden than Trump in Wisconsin.

    I am amazed Biden has held onto his bump in the national polls for this long. What is it? 10 days without a reversion. The 10pt gap is, if anything, growing.

    I’d like to think that every time Trump displays reckless irresponsibility by holding rallies and talking smack about public health experts that it moves another 0.5% or so towards Biden.

    Especially in the Sun Belt retirement states. 🙂

  23. WOW!

    Westpac, the Perth Mint, and hundreds of Australians have been ensnared in a major global tax evasion investigation into an offshore bank linked to organised crime syndicates.
    The J5 taskforce made up of the tax chiefs of Australia, the US, UK, the Netherlands and Canada are investigating Euro Pacific Bank in Puerto Rico, fronted by celebrity business commentator Peter Schiff. An investigation by The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, 60 Minutes and The New York Times found that simultaneous raids around the world in January could lead to about 100 Australians investigated and jailed over tax evasion. The customers of Euro Pacific are advised to create accounts using front companies in other tax havens, creating a web of arrangements that are difficult to trace. Westpac facilitated the Puerto Rican’s bank’s dealings with its Australian customers, while Perth Mint partnered with Euro Pacific to allow wealthy customers to buy gold.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/thebriefing/max-opray/2020/10/19/offshore-tax-evaders-raided?

  26. Re Somon Katich @9:06

    “Victorian business woman, Susan Alberti on RN this morning allowed to say ‘I am not an epidemiologist but I have done my own research and 99 out of 100 people who get covid are fine’ – with no return questioning from Doogue.

    A few obvious questions:

    – How did she conduct this “research”?
    – What was the sample size?
    – What was the margin of error?
    – How / where did she source her data?
    – Does the scope of this “research” relate to Victoria? Australia? The World?
    – what is her criteria for identifying someone who has contracted Covid as ‘fine*’?
    – How many of the people who aren’t fine eventually recover to a “fine” condition?

    For a journalist to let an assertion like that pass without challenge is utterly unprofessional.

    * if the Virus has a mortality rate of about 1%, “fine” would seem to mean “not dead”. However, assuming that her “research” relates to Victoria, given that the Victorian case mortality rate is more like 3%, this assertion is plainly wrong

    EDIT: also, is she saying that it is acceptable to relegate 1% of a large chunk of the population to a “not fine” condition (presumeably dead or very sick) in order to save business profits?

  28. Especially in the Sun Belt retirement states.

    And women. The louse couldnt help having ago at the female moderator that asked him tough questions at the recent Town Hall and then belittled the female moderator for the next debate.

    Then pleaded with suburban women to vote for him.

    I wonder if his advisors have let him have his rope.

  29. Simon Katich @ #911 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 9:59 am

    Especially in the Sun Belt retirement states.

    And women. The louse couldnt help having ago at the female moderator that asked him tough questions at the recent Town Hall and then belittled the female moderator for the next debate.

    Then pleaded with suburban women to vote for him.

    I wonder if his advisors have let him have his rope.

    It’s because Trump is following the old, women are either Damned Whores or God’s Police and Homemakers.

  30. Cat,
    Susan Alberti is a businesswoman. Very vocal in her support of Michael Sukkar, former Vice President of the Western Bulldogs Football Club. Doesn’t get along with the president Peter Gordon for some reason. She is a turd of the highest order…

  32. Does anyone know, is Labour in NZ controlled by unions and factions, like in Australia, or do they have a more open, more democratic? I’m presuming their isn’t any structural democracy like primaries.

    I know they get a lot of love here, but I saw a segment claiming that the Lincoln project, who in my opinion are incredibly bad people who spend decades creating the environment that led directly to Trump, and whose main current obsession is making sure that the US doesn’t get any progressive policy, also are effectively running a swindle where admin costs take up about 90% of the donations they get. Very very bad people. The worst. Everyone says.

    If progressives want any movement out of Biden they are going to have to work very hard from the moment he wins. Unless of course Trump does steal the election (there is no way he can have a legitimate win, he has been cheating for more than 5 years) in which case they’d have more important things to do.

  33. I just note in passing that Wisconsin, with a population of about 5.8 million (about 85% of Victoria) has been averaging about 3,000 new cases daily for the last 10 days and is on the way up, the latest number being over 3,700. On a per capitita basis, Wisconsin has been tracking about 7 times worse than Victoria’s worst week, but will end up doing so for weeks and months: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/wisconsin/

  34. C@tmomma @ #929 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:03 am

    Simon Katich @ #911 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 9:59 am

    Especially in the Sun Belt retirement states.

    And women. The louse couldnt help having ago at the female moderator that asked him tough questions at the recent Town Hall and then belittled the female moderator for the next debate.

    Then pleaded with suburban women to vote for him.

    I wonder if his advisors have let him have his rope.

    It’s because Trump is following the old, women are either Damned Whores or God’s Police and Homemakers.

    Trump is clearly holds the ‘pretty trophy only’ view of women.

  35. On the fake news Hunter Biden laptop story. No surprises that a Murdoch outlet chose not to ‘journalism’ before publishing.

    Mr. Giuliani said he chose The Post because “either nobody else would take it, or if they took it, they would spend all the time they could to try to contradict it before they put it out.”

    Top editors met on Oct. 11 to discuss how to use the material provided by Mr. Giuliani. The group included the tabloid veteran Colin Allan, known as Col; Stephen Lynch, The Post’s editor in chief; and Michelle Gotthelf, the digital editor in chief, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting. Mr. Allan, who was The Post’s editor in chief from 2001 to 2016 and returned last year as an adviser, urged his colleagues to move quickly, the person said.

    As deadline approached, editors pressed staff members to add their bylines to the story — and at least one aside from Mr. Golding refused, two Post journalists said. A Post spokeswoman had no comment on how the article was written or edited.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/18/business/media/new-york-post-hunter-biden.html

  36. Craig Hill
    @CraigHill01
    ·
    30m
    PM
    @ScottMorrisonMP has sent a message of support to Year 12 students taking their exams, but left out the part where he has made university unattainable for many of them. #auspol

  37. Fess

    And as I posted last night, sky news Sharri Markson had an exclusive interview with Steve Bannon about it. You cant make this shit up.

  42. Good morning and thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.

    For BK – I notice that Greensborough Growler has advised of an additional extension to block “Murdoch Content.

    Greensborough Growler @ #847 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:08 am

    Apparently, there is a Chrome extension available that allows you to block all Murdoch content.

    https://t.co/wGSeQpRsD8?amp=1

    Other references

    Firefox
    https://addons.mozilla.org/addon/bye-rupert/

    Chrome
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/bye-rupert/ehdikikkfbfjjemfadgggcohkjoggoof

    or

    https://t.co/wGSeQpRsD8?amp=1

    Mozilla’s latest Android version of Firefox is unsuitable for my purposes and I have now installed “Kiwi” which is Chrome based but enables extensions. Installing these extensions is an exercise in determination and persistence.

  46. Steve777 @ #916 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 10:08 am

    …I just note in passing that Wisconsin, with a population of about 5.8 million (about 85% of Victoria) has been averaging about 3,000 new cases daily for the last 10 days and is on the way up, the latest number being over 3,700. On a per capitita basis, Wisconsin has been tracking about 7 times worse than Victoria’s worst week, but will end up doing so for weeks and months: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/wisconsin/

    Remember the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota?

    Within weeks of the gathering that drew nearly half a million bikers, the Dakotas, along with Wyoming, Minnesota and Montana, were leading the nation in new coronavirus infections per capita.

    …The Aug. 7-16 gathering has drawn intense interest from scientists and health officials, and will likely be studied for years to come because of its singularity. It’s not just that Sturgis went on after the pandemic sidelined most everything else. It also drew people from across the country, all of them converging on one region, packing the small city’s Main Street and the bars and restaurants along it. And in contrast with participants in the Black Lives Matter protests this summer, many Sturgis attendees spent time clustered indoors at bars, restaurants and tattoo parlors, where experts say the virus is most likely to spread, especially among those without masks.

    Attendees came from every state, with just under half hailing from the Great Plains and substantial numbers journeying from as far as California, Illinois and Arizona, according to an analysis by the Center for New Data, a nonprofit group that uses cellphone location data to tackle public issues. The analysis, shared with The Washington Post, shows just how intertwined the South Dakota rally was with the rest of the country — and how far the decisions of individual attendees could have ricocheted.

    Cervantes feels certain he got the virus from his Sturgis trip, and shared that with the contact tracer from the Two Rivers Public Health Department who phoned him after his case was recorded. Nebraska borders South Dakota, and health officials there expected they might see rally-related infections.

    Yet his illness was not classified as a Sturgis case, suggesting that even under the best of circumstances, infections might go uncounted. With so much still unknown, it worries him to think people might look at the rally and conclude that massive events aren’t concerning after all — that the risk is worth it.

    That was how he saw it before he got sick. He recalls having a fleeting thought as he guided his motorcycle through the turns of the famed Needles Highway two months ago, taking in the sweeping views and rock formations close enough to touch: “If I catch the virus and die, I will be a happy man. I have lived.”

    He hadn’t imagined that within a matter of days, he would feel that death was hovering right at his door.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/

  47. Victoria @ #943 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 7:24 am

    WWP

    The ABC have been getting progressively worse. It would not surprise me in the least if they did

    I think they are the most damaging Australian media outlet, they have a totally undeserved image as ‘left’, or at the very least fair and balanced, but are completely trapped in the far right wing frame / mindset. They have a whole team of media personalities who can only think in ‘sky after dark’ terms and beliefs.

    And look at Uhlmann and how long was that kind of crazy at the top of the ABC tree.

  48. lizzie (Block)
    Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 10:21 am
    Comment #745

    I’ve no idea of the source of this and my feet are too cold to take my slippers off to check mine.

    God morgen – look as though my feet are Norwegian – dunno about the rest of me.

  49. Albo backing Andrews.

    And I think that public officials have a responsibility to back in that advice and not to send mixed messages. I haven’t done that and I think it’s unfortunate that members of the Federal Liberal Party have done that. If you listened to the Liberal Opposition in Queensland, and some of the federal members or the Victorian Opposition, Michael O’Brien and others, you would have seen a complete opening up of border, a removal of restrictions – and have a look at what has happened in Europe.

  50. Alpha Zero @ #930 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    Cat,
    Susan Alberti is a businesswoman. Very vocal in her support of Michael Sukkar, former Vice President of the Western Bulldogs Football Club. Doesn’t get along with the president Peter Gordon for some reason. She is a turd of the highest order…

    Thank you, AZ. So, just another Liberal Party stooge the Victorian Liberal Party have dredged up to muddy the waters and that RN was obliging by letting her spread her merde. Thought so.

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