Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

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  1. You do have to laugh at ch9 seat poll

    It is making out that the voters in those 2 electorates are mad as a cut snake

    The voters want the borders to stay close , Morrison wants the borders to open

    and these Voters think Morrison will protect them

  2. On the subject of biased opinion Greg Sheridan is one of the worst. The Australian with Greg as an avowed and unabashed Tony Abbott superfan led us into what is acknowledged as the worst PM ship in our history. This stable of opinion writers who all obseqiously attempt to channel the sour old gent in NY are a threat to democracy. In my city Brisbane, the Courier went from stodgy promoter of private school, middle class,small l liberal values ( best personified by the still active in other forums journalist Madonna King) but with at least a reasonably fair assessment of politics to a rabid balls out barracker for every LNP cause and personality no matter how outre. It has become chief heckler of all things Labor and produced some the most hardcore editors in Dore, Mitchell etc. At the moment in Brisbane they are offering subscriptions for 4 dollars per week. The saddest thing is that I couldn’t imagine wading through this Fantasyland bunkum even were I an LNP tragic. Whoever is making these decisions cannot be motivated by commercial interests.

  3. Just a casual acquaintance then?? SMH:

    JUST IN
    3 minutes ago’He wasn’t my boyfriend. He wasn’t anything of note’: Premier downplays Maguire relationship
    13 minutes ago

  5. lizzie

    Listened to Norman Swan, who was saying Victoria had achieved something no other country in the world had managed.

    ABC headlines wall to wall ‘businesses say Andrews hasn’t opened Victoria up enough”, and interviews with business leaders on the same theme (one, whose name I missed, did this long rambling thing where ‘all I want is the truth!’ ‘all I want is…” “all I want is…” – I could not understand why the interview was allowed to proceed, the interviewee was obviously not only a waste of space but actually damaging…)

    I reflected that if ONE media outlet had been vaguely supportive of Victoria’s measures they could be claiming bragging rights, and running ‘we did it!’ headlines. But no. Having all decided to snark at the measures, they can’t possibly acknowledge – as Swan did – that Victoria has pulled off something truly remarkable.

  6. Rakali,
    Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Kind of.

    I, too, think that you have misunderstood what I was attempting to say, in that I didn’t propose that Christian Zealots became, literally, bomb throwers once they entered democratic parliaments. However, it is very much my view that these people, upon entering parliaments, have used their numbers to, metaphorically, use socially disruptive means, such as Voter Suppression and fellow traveller judge appointments, to, again metaphorically, throw bombs into the polity, in order to advance their cause.

    Not to mention the fact that, as we are seeing with Donald Trump in the US right now, very real violence is hiding behind the facade of religious piety. Also that real violence is being encouraged by someone who models himself as the avatar of Christian beliefs.

    Now, if you don’t think that sort of behaviour should be criticised, and that it makes me a ‘nihilist’ because I do, then you are entitled to your opinion but it doesn’t make it right in my eyes. Nor does it, to my way of thinking, give you the right to criticise people outright for expressing disagreement with your opinion. In a democracy. 🙂

  7. zoomster @ #855 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:24 am

    lizzie

    Listened to Norman Swan, who was saying Victoria had achieved something no other country in the world had managed.

    ABC headlines wall to wall ‘businesses say Andrews hasn’t opened Victoria up enough”, and interviews with business leaders on the same theme (one, whose name I missed, did this long rambling thing where ‘all I want is the truth!’ ‘all I want is…” “all I want is…” – I could not understand why the interview was allowed to proceed, the interviewee was obviously not only a waste of space but actually damaging…)

    I reflected that if ONE media outlet had been vaguely supportive of Victoria’s measures they could be claiming bragging rights, and running ‘we did it!’ headlines. But no. Having all decided to snark at the measures, they can’t possibly acknowledge – as Swan did – that Victoria has pulled off something truly remarkable.

    ‘Victoria has pulled off something truly remarkable.’
    Mr Albanese said this morning.

  8. 3 minutes ago’He wasn’t my boyfriend. He wasn’t anything of note’: Premier downplays Maguire relationship
    ____
    So Maguire has been relegated in the relationship spectrum to “just a good, convenient root”?

  9. zoomster

    We also have academics who were not part of the consultation bringing out modelling to prove their way was better. Sour gapes? It seems to me that such modelling does not take account of the political pressure at the time, particularly from the PM.

  10. Gee who could’ve predicted this apart from just about everybody!

    Within weeks of the gathering, the Dakotas, along with Wyoming, Minnesota and Montana, were leading the nation in new coronavirus infections per capita. The surge was especially pronounced in North and South Dakota, where cases and hospitalization rates continued their juggernaut rise into October. Experts say they will never be able to determine how many of those cases originated at the 10-day rally, given the failure of state and local health officials to identify and monitor attendees returning home, or to trace chains of transmission after people got sick. Some, however, believe the nearly 500,000-person gathering played a role in the outbreak now consuming the Upper Midwest.

    More than 330 coronavirus cases and one death were directly linked to the rally as of mid-September, according to a Washington Post survey of health departments in 23 states that provided information. But experts say that tally represents just the tip of the iceberg, since contact tracing often doesn’t capture the source of an infection, and asymptomatic spread goes unnoticed.

    In many ways, Sturgis is an object lesson in the patchwork U.S. response to a virus that has proved remarkably adept at exploiting such gaps to become resurgent. While some states and localities banned even relatively small groups of people, others, like South Dakota, imposed no restrictions — in this case allowing the largest gathering of people in the United States and perhaps anywhere in the world amid the pandemic and creating huge vulnerabilities as tens of thousands of attendees traveled back home to every state in the nation.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/

    And unbelievably there were people suspected to be infected but who refused to be tested, citing personal liberties, and those confirmed cases refused to quarantine, also citing personal liberties. How selfish is that?!

  11. I thought I read last week that Albo was done with Mr Nice Guy and would be turning the heat up on the government..?
    Is that happening this week?
    Does anyone know?

  13. BK

    Her story seems to vary minute by minute. To the DT “I loved him”; to Fordham “don’t make me cry”. Now it’s “he was nothing to me.” Yet thy discussed marriage.

    Is this the way she runs NSW?

  14. citizen
    Gladys trying to arse cover after some reactions to her ‘tell all’ soft soap article in the Tele…..

    INTIMATE’ QUESTION FOR PREMIER’S AFFAIR: EX-DPP

    Former NSW Director of Public Prosecutions Nicholas Cowdery believes the latest comments by Premier Gladys Berejiklian mean she could have been deeper involved with Daryl Maguire than she let on.

  15. “I’m just grateful for members of the public and my colleagues who have kept me going,” she said…
    Gladys playing the punters like mullet on a line….reeling ’em in..
    Gladys didn’t get where she is because she’s a shrinking violet.

  16. Just imagine if Gladys was Jodi Mackay ,changing her story every time she speaks.

    The media wold be hounding Jodi to resign and calling her liar

  19. I said the other day that the Hunter Biden stuff was Russian disinformation laundered through the NY Post. And now the Republicans are stepping it up with more lies.

    Malcolm Nance@MalcolmNance·
    2h
    Whoa. The Republicans tried to tie Hunter Biden to child pornography. This is a 100% FSB tactic. The FSB ALWAYS claims/plants Child porn on their opponents. So of course @SenRonJohnson carries Moscow’s water. He’s their made-man.

  22. BK, She will drop the “good” from that description soon.

    And “convenient” is in danger too.

    ‘There were sub optimal synergies in the acquaintance’

  26. It’s so encouraging to see that support for the Greens continues to grow strongly and that our policies to improve the lives of everyday people are being well received.

    The Greens are the sensible alternative to the tired and out of touch two party establishment.

  29. Player One @ #871 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 5:47 am

    Late Riser @ #815 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 11:14 pm

    The shift is in the composition of the anti-Labor vote.

    That fits with my observation of an LNP/Green battle in Maiwar.

    That’s one way of looking at it.

    Another is that while the electorate is shifting to the left, Labor is not attracting those votes.

    That assumes that voters are going from the Right direct to the Greens.

    Much more likely that they are going to Labor and some Labor voters are leaking to the Greens.

  30. Burnet Institute
    @BurnetInstitute
    ·
    Oct 16
    From 725 cases to two! While Europe grapples with a spiralling second wave, Victoria’s #COVID19 curve appears to be flattening.
    @KnowC19_Burnet
    Thanks to all the scientists who have shared their knowledge and insights to help guide this positive public health response.

  35. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #873 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:52 am

    Player One @ #871 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 5:47 am

    Late Riser @ #815 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 11:14 pm

    The shift is in the composition of the anti-Labor vote.

    That fits with my observation of an LNP/Green battle in Maiwar.

    That’s one way of looking at it.

    Another is that while the electorate is shifting to the left, Labor is not attracting those votes.

    That assumes that voters are going from the Right direct to the Greens.

    Much more likely that they are going to Labor and some Labor voters are leaking to the Greens.

    ..on their way back to Labor….

  38. lizzie @ #880 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:22 am

    Burnet Institute
    @BurnetInstitute
    ·
    Oct 16
    From 725 cases to two! While Europe grapples with a spiralling second wave, Victoria’s #COVID19 curve appears to be flattening.
    @KnowC19_Burnet
    Thanks to all the scientists who have shared their knowledge and insights to help guide this positive public health response.

    Victorian business woman, Susan Alberti on RN this morning allowed to say ‘I am not an epidemiologist but I have done my own research and 99 out of 100 people who get covid are fine’ – with no return questioning from Doogue.

    I didnt hear the end of the interview. I assume Doogue made her listeners aware of Alberti’s links to the hard right Deakin 200 Club.

  39. Deakin 200 CLub is a Lib fundraiser front. The views of Victorian business people on the ongoing hardship caused by the lock down are important and should be aired. But to play down the significance of the virus like Alberti did was astounding and needed to be followed up and questioned by Doogue.
    [img][/img]

  40. Penny Wong has headed over to the rural and regional affairs committee – a large part of that sits under Michael McCormack, if you were wondering why she has decided to head there.

    She should be able to shred him nicely. 🙂

  42. Barney, it doesnt change anything in my mind. What she is trying to do is escape the bit where she had to declare the interest. But in doing so she is losing the sympathy card she played, that she remained in the relationship after it was obvious the dude was dodgy because of love. She put up with him pestering her over his deals and introducing her to his associates – looking for favour – because of love.

  44. Victorian business woman and maths moron

    ………….Susan Alberti on RN this morning allowed to say ‘I am not an epidemiologist but I have done my own research and 99 out of 100 people who get covid are fine’ –

    Australia.Cases -27398 Deaths -905 sooo 3.30% death rate. Globally 2.8% .

  46. It is a very interesting approach by the NSW Premier. Transitioning from five years (at least) of secrecy over a personal relationship, claiming the lack of disclosure being due to her preference for privacy, to adopting a public media strategy.

    I would have thought she would have received better advice. She is actively workshopping the message in public. Risky.

  47. In an attempt to get ahead of the Leppington triangle purchase controversy, department of infrastructure and transport head Simon Atkinson says he is going further than the auditor-general’s recommendations over the purchase, and has ordered an independent review, as well as the referral of the matter to the AFP.

  49. So Susan Alberti was the loony I referred to earlier, I take it.

    All over the place, contradictory lines of argument, basically a huge selfish whine.

    She should have been shut down very early in the interview.

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