Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

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  1. lizzie @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 11:12 am

    Morrison has forced other states to accept travellers. It seems that Andrews and the others are simply dealing with it.

    Andrews very unhappy about it. McGowan has expressed his dissatisfaction well yesterday. Yet to hear from Gutwein and I wonder if any have gone to SA. I would love some to pop up in Qld and hear Stephen Miles reaction

  2. Simon Katich @ #996 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    What is broken is relying on a centuries old document in a country whose population diverges into two politically based tribes to the point that updating or changing the document or legislating around it has become near impossible.

    Yeah this isn’t that smart, but more consequential is the weakening of the Parliament, it should be the supreme institution in the democracy, the most powerful and the most respected, but it come a very poor third by a long long way.

  3. Correction to the super over rules, the commentators are updating, and batspersons who haven’t got out in the first super over can bat in the second super over.

  4. The corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units hacks would go into panic mode, if Daniel Andrews said there will be a state royal commission into the media connections with the libs/nats

  5. Guardian Blog; Dan

    With respect, whether their borders are open or not, people have turned up in Perth without the Western Australian government knowing.

    If that is gold standard, then I don’t agree with that. I don’t think, just like people turned up, border shut, border open, people did up from another country in Melbourne without us knowing.

    I assume the same thing has occurred given there is no international flights going into Tasmania, I assume exactly the same thing has happened. That is not ideal.

    That is not ideal, because members of Victoria Police, authorised officers, and who knows who else have spent a considerable amount of time this weekend chasing up people that we were on the very clear understanding were not coming here, because the bubble did not include us.

    We spent a bit of time on this and the reason we have is I am not having my officials or our hard-working team blamed for things that happened at the Australian border or the Sydney airport.

    That is just unfair.

  6. WeWantPaul @ #1007 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 11:39 am

    Spray @ #1005 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:39 am

    WeWantPaul @ #1004 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 11:37 am

    Correction to the super over rules, the commentators are updating, and batspersons who haven’t got out in the first super over can bat in the second super over.

    Might be easier to go with paper, scissors, rock.

    I’m enjoying it.

    Fair enough. Probably for the same reason that, as not a huge soccer fan, I always cheer for the draw in any match that can go to penalties. Great theatre.

  7. WeWantPaul @ #996 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:32 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #995 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    WeWantPaul @ #989 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:28 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #984 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:21 am

    WeWantPaul @ #981 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

    So how does that suggest the Court is broken.

    A purely partisan court is problematic res ipsa loquitur, because they are pursuing a partisan objective rather than rule of law, that is very broken, if not pretty common. But to use that power to stop / reverse a democratic outcome, it tinpot dictatorship jurisprudence, it doesn’t come any more broken than that.

    😆

    But they made a good decision.

    It was the Democrats that had the flawed case.

    That Gore had legitimately won the election was deeply flawed for the Supreme Court.

    So comment on why the Court was wrong in law to do what they did! 😆

  8. Despite being extremely careful about how much he says under Wong’s and Watt’s questions, Department of Infrastructure and Transport head, Simon Atkinson, seems to me to be genuinely concerned about something smelly that went on with the Badgerys Creek land deal. He has launched his own internal investigation.

  9. Barney

    In democracies non partisan courts err on the side of counting the votes.

    That’s many partisan court cases that would have been different in the US with that principle.

  10. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1011 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:42 am

    WeWantPaul @ #996 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:32 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #995 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    WeWantPaul @ #989 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:28 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #984 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:21 am

    WeWantPaul @ #981 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #982 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    WeWantPaul @ #974 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 8:14 am

    The US Supreme Court has been broken since before it stopped the counting in Florida to steal an election for Bush. It is one of those institutions that has enjoyed much more credibility and support than it deserves. It is a broken partisan joke.

    I thought it was a flawed case.

    IIRC they tried to cherry pick areas they thought would be advantages to them.

    They should have been asking for a complete recount of Florida.

    Agree completely, it was purely partisan, on partisan lines.

    So how does that suggest the Court is broken.

    A purely partisan court is problematic res ipsa loquitur, because they are pursuing a partisan objective rather than rule of law, that is very broken, if not pretty common. But to use that power to stop / reverse a democratic outcome, it tinpot dictatorship jurisprudence, it doesn’t come any more broken than that.

    😆

    But they made a good decision.

    It was the Democrats that had the flawed case.

    That Gore had legitimately won the election was deeply flawed for the Supreme Court.

    So comment on why the Court was wrong in law to do what they did! 😆

    I’m a lawyer, but we don’t need to go that far, in fact the court didn’t so it would be pretty stupid for us to do what they didn’t do. But not counting votes in a democracy seems a pretty fundamental thing, if they don’t get that they are even worse than a tinpot dictatorship pretend judiciary.

  11. I’m only watching a replay but it is good to see Chris Gayle take a break from harassing female journos and play a little bit of cricket.

  12. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    26m
    Dan Andrews on the feds: ‘I haven’t played politics during this crisis, I didn’t during the bushfires and believe me I could have, but I did not, because I don’t believe that is appropriate, so Josh Frydenberg can make all the comments he wants .. but I will be calling them out’

  13. laughtong says:
    Monday, October 19, 2020 at 11:57 am

    I think there was a post earlier in this thread that he had. Fair way back though

    ———————-

    It will be interesting to see what the attitude in question time will be, hope Albanese and Labor members ask questions why are Victoria, Western Australia ,Tasmania getting people from the so called travel bubble ,which Morrison claimed was NSW and N.T only at this stage

  14. One of the things that keeps Australia as a democracy is our robust electoral system.

    Despite many anti democratic forces in our society like an almost monopoly in the media landscape and money in politics stopping real action on climate change our Australian Electoral Commission is streets ahead of many jurisdictions around the world.

  15. The newsltd and pro coalition media hacks ask Labor premiers and state Chief medical Officer questions on why did they change their story, yet not the same questions to Liberal party premiers, Prime Minister or the federal chief/deputy medical officers when they changed their story

  16. Just heard some Federal Lib on ABC radio stating the the Vic Health website states that is ok for visitors from NZ to come to Victoria via Sydney. He went on to say that this is confusing ie it is the Victorians fault.

    Do not think this is true.

  17. The website was changed at 8.30pm Sunday because they couldn’t get any cooperation from the Federal government and Border force, and had no choice.

  18. Scout

    What I find amazing is the Liberals are following the Trump Boris Johnson pandemic playbook.

    We know how New Zealanders rewarded Ardern. We shall soon know the judgement on Trump.

  19. Brett Sutton has 10 (12?) meetings each day and the journos are picking at him on details. Has anyone asked Morrison about his Sunday activities? No need to ask.

  20. I feel sorry for penny wongs kids. Can you imagine being in trouble by her.

    “Did you eat these cookies” Penny stares at the child.

  21. If Northern Territory do no get any Passengers from New Zealand , did the federal government deliberately lie to the Northern Territory government by announcing the nz travel bubble was only NSW and N.T at this stage

  22. Scott

    Rumour has it that Morrison deliberately allowed the NZers to go wherever they liked, to break the borders of Labor states.

  23. Apologies if it has been mentioned earlier but this headline from murdoch’s rag is disgusting:

    “Danger across the ditch as incompetent leader Ardern wins office”

    I had to check it was real – it is. This is not legitimate reporting it is opinion based on fear of competence.

  24. lizzie @ #1033 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    Scott

    Rumour has it that Morrison deliberately allowed the NZers to go wherever they liked, to break the borders of Labor states.

    How would that work Lizzie? They’re still not allowed into WA or Qld, and Victoria doesn’t have border closures.

    The Kiwis weren’t able to just rock up at Perth airport and say “Morrison said we could come in”.

  25. I don’t know if this has been posted earlier – but is an important article.
    I read about 600 “scientists” signing the “Great Barrington Declaration” and looked into it (a little) before forming my opinion.
    “Herd immunity” is a hoax. Anyone who uses it is being influenced by the far right and extremists.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/18/covid-herd-immunity-funding-bad-science-anti-lockdown.
    I heard on the wireless that “herd immunity” has NEVER happened. Not with flu, or polio, or measles, or HIV. Coronavirus is with humanity for ever. We hope to keep it low with testing, treatment, and vaccination.

  26. Spray @ #1039 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    lizzie @ #1033 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    Scott

    Rumour has it that Morrison deliberately allowed the NZers to go wherever they liked, to break the borders of Labor states.

    How would that work Lizzie? They’re still not allowed into WA or Qld, and Victoria doesn’t have border closures.

    The Kiwis weren’t able to just rock up at Perth airport and say “Morrison said we could come in”.

    They have shown up in Perth and Hobart. At least in Perth they were able to be quickly detained and placed in quarentine as their border closures required. McGowan expressed his frustration very clearly yesterday.
    Gutwein seems to have been quiet so far.

  27. ‘The Kiwis weren’t able to just rock up at Perth airport and say “Morrison said we could come in”.’
    That defies the fact that they did turn up at Perth airport, as well as Hobart.

  28. Yes. They were treated exactly the same as I would be if I boarded a flight from Sydney to Perth without applying for an exemption. That’s my point.

  29. Australians without exemptions can not leave Australia they are stopped by federal authorities , the same federal authorities could had also stop the passengers from Newzealand catching flights to states who were not named in the travel bubble

  30. Scott @ #1046 Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 12:34 pm

    Australians without exemptions can not leave Australia they are stopped by federal authorities , the same federal authorities could had also stop the passengers from Newzealand catching flights to states who were not named in the travel bubble

    But that’s not how the state border restrictions have been applied. The checking isn’t done at the point of exit, whether it’s for NSW residents or visiting Kiwis.

    There was a suggestion that Morrison was using the Kiwi bubble to break Labor state border restrictions. I was just wondering how that plan would work. Still can’t see it.

  31. Spray says:
    Monday, October 19, 2020 at 12:40 pm

    But that’s not how the state border restrictions have been applied. The checking isn’t done at the point of exit, whether it’s for NSW residents or visiting Kiwis.

    There was a suggestion that Morrison was using the Kiwi bubble to break Labor state border restrictions. I was just wondering how that plan would work. Still can’t see it.
    Why was the checking not done ? .

    This is where the federal government allowed passengers to break bubble
    incompetence by Morrison and his cronies by not enforcing those passengers from NewZealand flight , to stay within the travel bubble

  32. I agree with the comments on the incompetence of Dutton’s department on travel bubble restrictions.

    Just a reminder. New Zealand is in more danger from returning Kiwis than Australians are from Kiwis. 🙂

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