More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

Comments Page 12 of 21
1 … 11 12 13 … 21

  1. lizzie @ #546 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 3:22 pm

    Dr Stuart Edser
    ·
    4m
    I despair for America, a country I love. If Biden can win & toss that bestial ignoramus out, we must not put messianic expectations on the man. He wants to restore some reality & trust I know, but the US has gone down the rabbit hole & I don’t know if *anyone* can bring her back.

    And the abomination that is Australia’s Rupert Murdoch is the progenitor of it all.

  2. Cat

    Yes precisely. Murdoch junior being worse than Murdoch senior.

    One major reason I want Biden to win is because it will help undo the Murdoch Political Kingmaker dynamic.

    Same with the ACT legislating truth in political advertising.

    Reducing the power of Murdoch propaganda is going to help the world big time.

  3. Chris Bowen
    @Bowenchris
    ·
    4m
    This was already ridiculous but it’s now worse. Craig Kelly has called on the DCMO to resign because he has pointed out that the evidence says Hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work on COVID. Scott Morrison cannot shrug his shoulders over one of his MPs undermining the CMO/DCMO. 1/2
    ·
    4m
    Words have consequences. When Craig Kelly promotes conspiracy theories and undermines the CMO/DCMO it is dangerous. There is enough misinformation out there without Liberal MP’s promoting more. There is an obligation on Scott Morrison to speak out in support of the DCMO. 2/2

  4. From President ‘if she wasn’t my daughter I’d date her’ earlier:

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    5h
    “Harris, how about her, she’s a beauty, huh”

    Sing-songy, yelling, acting out falling poll numbers, play-acting voice of her quitting the race.

    This is a wired-up pre-adolescent prancing across a stage like a spoiled kid whose parents are making the family watch his Talent Show

  6. zoomster @ #529 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    Rex

    I’m not a personal fan of Andrews.

    And yes, the party saw him as a seat warmer. I’m sure they’re pleasantly surprised at how well he’s doing.

    However, my personal views of someone and objective measures of popularity are two different things.

    I don’t like Scott Morrison but I don’t deny the polls show he is travelling well.

    ‘Seat warmers’ often do surprise people. I think Maggie Thatcher was initially seen as one.

    Joh and Henry Bolte too!

  10. Confessionssays: Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 3:42 pm

    From President ‘if she wasn’t my daughter I’d date her’ earlier:

    **********************************************************

  12. lizzie @ #552 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 3:35 pm

    Chris Bowen
    @Bowenchris
    ·
    4m
    This was already ridiculous but it’s now worse. Craig Kelly has called on the DCMO to resign because he has pointed out that the evidence says Hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work on COVID. Scott Morrison cannot shrug his shoulders over one of his MPs undermining the CMO/DCMO. 1/2
    ·
    4m
    Words have consequences. When Craig Kelly promotes conspiracy theories and undermines the CMO/DCMO it is dangerous. There is enough misinformation out there without Liberal MP’s promoting more. There is an obligation on Scott Morrison to speak out in support of the DCMO. 2/2

    Apropos that, I just finished reading this great article by a researcher with The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Elise Thomas from 3 months ago. It is as relevant now as it was then:

    The COVID-19 crisis has been an unprecedented opportunity for the conspiracy industry, which has rushed to fill the many unanswered questions about the virus and the response to it with an alacrity that legitimate information sources simply cannot match. Good journalism takes time and money, and medical research takes even more, but spinning conspiracies is free and takes only as long as you need to make it up.

    Conspiracies have always come with opportunities to make a bit of cash but the internet has provided a raft of new money-making possibilities for figures such as Jones and Icke, and paved the way for the ascensions of the likes of Steve Bannon and Paul Joseph Watson. Low-cost websites allow them to look and sound like news organisations, while social media platforms enable them to reach a vastly wider audience. Digital third-party advertising created a new revenue stream to supplement the age-old strategy of convincing people you have the solutions to their problems available at a low, low price – except instead of snake oil today’s conspiracists are selling $97 electromagnetic field protection hats and colloidal silver frequency water on Etsy.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-covid-19-is-driving-a-booming-conspiracy-industry-20200526-p54whn.html

  13. What a revelation. Male scientists have placed more importance on male birdsong.

    Animal Behaviour – Australasia @AnimBehav
    ·
    Aug 26
    Women scientists are leading the way in researching female #birdsong. Increased diversity in science can lead to new insight into behavioural ecology
    #WomeninScience #AnimalBehaviour #ScienceTwitter
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2020.07.021


  16. shellbell says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    frednk

    “The real question is how did a federal responsibility end up being something the states had to do?”

    It is a state responsibility if the state wants it to be or thinks it should be.

    The clear evidence is that Victoria, like other jurisdictions, accepted the relevant responsibility.

    The interesting question is why? I suspect it was because the federal government refused to take its responsibilities seriously. I am not so sure Morrison should be pushing hard for that information to come out.

    It will be just another case of federal miss-management.

  18. lizziesays: Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 3:52 pm

    phoenixRED

    That made me nauseous.

    **********************************************************

    I understand Lizzie : ( ……… but its part of who Trump is ……. and why I hope he loses office in November and faces the full force of the financial investigations that are not being acted upon a sitting President atm …..

  19. Fess

    Trump is one sick individual. I am still hopeful that he will be fully exposed as the sadist, treasonous piece of crapola that he is.

    My dream is that it will leave no one in any doubt of who he is.

  20. Police allege the man returned to WA after visiting family in Queensland without first applying for permission to return to the state.

    In a statement WA Police said the man complained of non-COVID related symptoms when he arrived at Perth Airport.

    “He was permitted entry to the state and was issued a hospital direction and conveyed by ambulance,” the statement said.

    “After receiving treatment at a medical facility he was instructed to wait for transport to hotel quarantine.

    “[But] police were advised that the man left prior to the transport arriving.”

    Officers said the man was located after he checked into a backpackers hostel and then went to Hotel Northbridge.

    Police have received health advice saying the man is low risk of having COVID-19 but was being tested as a precaution.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-29/coronavirus-breach-at-northbridge-hotel/12608998

    Sounds to me like he was scamming a free ride from the airport. But he should be penalised for breaching the rules.

  21. PhoenixRed

    It’s as if he has been able to put a spell on people. I cant get my head around it.
    Anyhoo as i mentioned above, I am still hoping for a big reveal before the election.

  22. Vic:

    Team Trump managed to keep him on script through the convention. Clearly he couldn’t wait to let loose again after being on a tight leash.

    I was listening to Rick Wilson the other day and he said this would happen, because it always happens with Trump: they lock him down and days later he bursts out with inflammatory or incendiary comments.

  24. Phew! I’ve been catching up while watching Swannies. It helps keep my blood pressure down a bit … BUT …

    Just saw those Trump n Ivan’s photos. Brought back many awful memories of files I worked on for years. Faces, gestures, hand placements tell some woeful tales.
    No wonder Melania glares at her stepdaughter. Bizarre.

  26. Victoria

    Trumpism is a cult. People are willing to sacrifice their lives for their leader.

    Just look at all the unmasked people sitting next to each other at the RNC.

  27. Guytaur, ‘Labor ended up with 90% of the Greens preferences in Eden Monaro.’

    Then why do they spend 80% of their time criticising Labor?

  29. BH

    And you gotta wonder who is behind qanon?
    They’ve sold the story that Trump is the saviour rescuing children from the Hollywood elite and democrat pedos.
    I’ve always said it was projection.
    Sickening stuff

  30. Victoria says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 4:04 pm

    Frednk

    As I’ve said already, i don’t want Victoria to recommence any quarantine for returned travellers going forward.

    No it’s a federal responsibility. Lets see if they can convinces a majority that home quarantine is good enough; and if not, lets see their solution.

  31. Victoriasays: Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    PhoenixRed

    It’s as if he has been able to put a spell on people. I cant get my head around it.
    Anyhoo as i mentioned above, I am still hoping for a big reveal before the election.

    ********************************************************

  34. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 3:58 pm

    C@tmomma @ #563 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 3:56 pm

    I always wonder what Ivana Trump thinks when she sees images like that.

    She doesn’t care. Do you?

    It’s no way to treat a women in public. I suspect most women would see a scum bag.
    It is no way to treat your daughter in public or private. I see a scum bag.

  35. Confessions ‘scamming a free ride from the airport. But he should be penalised for breaching the rules.’

    I hope he is COVID free and probably is because of the low risk.

    I just hope they give him a free ride to the pokey too, just like that women who snuck into WA on the back of a truck. – 6 months inside and a criminal conviction may dissuade others from doing likewise.

  38. BHsays: Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 4:08 pm

    @Cat Congrats on finding your new haven. It sounds lovely. Happy packing

    ***********************************************

    Cat@momma – I dont envy you repacking everything for a shift……. but I can only wish You and Your sons :

  39. Victoria and FredNK

    Maybe the state premiers have a better sense of duty to citizens.

    Berejiklian has contradicted Morrison a few times too. So unlike the media reporting it could very well be a bipartisan thing of not trusting the Federal Government.

    Edit: pure speculation on my part of course.

  40. Victoria
    Yes, surprising the MSM here is ignoring Qanon. I read somewhere yesterday that it’s thought a Trump insider could be the instigator. Not sure I can see that.
    If its declared a pseudo terrorist organisation then why has the Oz media left it alone?

  44. Here are the nutters. This article says the government doesn’t know how to deal with them.

    A recent report found QAnon’s following was growing considerably in Australia with only the US, UK and Canada producing more conspiracy content
    …
    In Australia, its adherents have had no trouble retrofitting the theory to suit our politics. When news came out this week that the former prime minister John Howard had been hospitalised after surgery for appendicitis it sparked a flurry of messages on social media in groups linked to the QAnon conspiracy movement in Australia.

    The timing of the 81-year-old’s hospitalisation, the general consensus seemed to be, was suspicious. Exactly why wasn’t immediately clear, even, it seemed, to those suggesting it, but many assumed the former PM was “finally facing justice”.

    Howard, one person said incorrectly, was “the Port Arthur murderer”. Another called him a “traitor and clintons bestie” who “took our guns” and, they falsely claimed, “brought in a 90 yr supression (sic) order for all his pedo mates”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/29/australian-mp-takes-on-conspiracy-theorist-in-court-but-experts-dont-know-where-to-begin-with-online-battle?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

  45. Lizzie
    Thanks for The Guardian article. Will read it tonight (a little dog is eyeballing me for an early dinner).
    Will see if I can find anything in Murdoch media too.

    @Cat Packing is one of the worst jobs ever but when unpacking is finished it’s quickly forgotten, thank goodness.

  47. BH,
    We are, kind of, happy that it’s happening now because we have been here for 25 years and we have naturally accumulated a lot of stuff along the lines of, you never know you just might need it one day, kind of thing. So what we have been doing today is saying, do we really? Our wheelie bin is almost full already and we have only just started! Though we see it as a productive exercise because we are hopefully moving again in a year or two when my son uses his inheritance to buy a house. He first needs a job though. 😆

  48. Labor has found a way to break the Parliamentary impasse over its controversial bid to extend for another 12 months its power to declare states of emergency, which it has been using every four weeks throughout the pandemic.

    A deal has been hammered out with crossbench MPs in the upper house, giving Mr Andrews’ government a one-off extension which will last six months, but not the permanent legislative change it was seeking, on condition that members of Parliament are briefed on the health situation each time a new four week state of emergency is declared.

    The deal, which will force Labor to return to the Parliament in March if it still believes it needs emergency powers, is believed to be acceptable to at least four of the crossbench, giving Mr Andrews and his colleagues the numbers they need to narrowly pass the compromise arrangement through the chamber on Tuesday.

    Key crossbencher Fiona Patten of the Reason Party said the agreement was a “fair and equitable” outcome and that it looked to have enough support to secure passage.

    “I have indicated that I will vote for a one-off extension of the government’s state of emergency powers for six months,” Ms Patten said.

    “However, I have requested that the legislation have a sunset clause on this time period, meaning that any future state of emergency will again be limited to six months.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/breakthrough-for-andrews-on-emergency-power-as-cases-fall-again-20200829-p55qix.html

  50. An former work colleague I always considered pretty sane has fallen right down the Qanon rabbit hole as of late, and now genuinely believes that Australia is run by a secret cabal of paedophiles – and that, somehow, Donald Trump is he only one who can put a stop to it.

    Among the “evidence” shown to support this was a YouTube video selectively editing a bunch of old clips of Bill Heffernon speaking under parliamentary privilege (about Michael Kirby, I’m assuming) intercut with creepy, slowmo footage of Howard, Morrison, and other major political figures. This is somehow linked with some (admittedly pretty questionable) sexual assault legislation recently passed by the Andrews government, which I suppose reveals one of the end goals of all of this nonsense, at least here in Australia.

    Now she’s complaining about people unfriending her and that barely anyone is sharing / responding to her batshit #SaveTheChildren posts. I guess we’re all part of the conspiracy?

Comments Page 12 of 21
1 … 11 12 13 … 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *