When too much of the above is barely enough:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.
• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.
• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.
• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.
• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.
Yes I get it. I am making good points.
I guess if no one else will blow his horn, guytaur will just have to do it himself. 😆
Have just been idly perusing the various state border restriction rules whilst pondering how as Tasmanian residents we might perform our half-yearly infliction of ourselves on the children and grand-children in Sydney and Brisbane.
What became evident fairly quickly is the arbitrary inconsistencies between the various state regulations. If we were to catch the overnight ferry to Melbourne and drive directly up the highway to NSW we wouldn’t be allowed to cross the border. But if we were coming back (and provided we only stopped in Victoria for fuel) we would be allowed on the boat and into Tasmania (subject of course to spending two weeks in home isolation once we got back).
So driving isn’t an option. What about flying? We can fly to Brisbane, then travel to Sydney and then back to Tasmania (and then happily do our two weeks isolation at home).
What about the reverse direction? We can fly to Sydney but then aren’t allowed over the Qld border because of the perceived high risk of the entire state of NSW. But if somehow we managed to get to Qld and returned to Tassie, we would have to do our two weeks in a quarantine hotel because the Greater Brisbane metropolitan area is deemed to be a Covid hotspot by the Tasmanian government, whilst Sydney isn’t. Go figure?
C@tmomma @ #498 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:07 pm
Joe Biden is creepy old relic corporatist hasbeen 1%er POS.
With any luck Harris and AOC will be steering the ship.
Did someone say Useful idiots!!!
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/useful-idiots-taibbi-rnc-highlights-zephyr-teachout-1051664/
Greensborough Growler @ #486 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 1:12 pm
Sanctimony is a powerfully motivating urge.
Cat
The personal attacks do you zero credit.
Danama Papers @ #497 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
It’s only missing New Rules which you can watch via the Real Time Yt channel.
‘It does get boring but maybe one day Labor people will work out blaming the Greens wins them zero elections.’
Actually, Victoria Labor is doing very well, but their strategy is more about ignoring them.
Confessions @ #507 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 12:16 pm
I can’t download the whole episode though. I’ll wait a while. It’ll pop up in due course.
Zoomster
It’s a fair point.
If policies are acceptable to people and Labor does well the Greens are in the proverbial creek.
zoomster @ #506 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:19 pm
They give the Vic Greens far less oxygen compared to Federal Labor who go out of their way to create catastrophic wedges.
“ If you leave out the attacks on Biden, he’s actually damn right.”
And if my Aunty had testicles she’d be my uncle.
Firefox doesn’t care about what’s correct. He cares about rubbing out the centre left, because that stands between him and his glorious Götterdämmerung with the RWNJs.
Exterminate the centre (maybe a lazy 5 billion put into early graves) then a fight to the death between the pure left and the pure right. Oh the glory of it.
There is a long list of musicians complaining that Trump used their music without permission.
https://www.vulture.com/article/the-history-of-musicians-rejecting-donald-trump.html
C@tmomma @ #500 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 12:07 pm
I agree, however it’s going to be a long time before any of the problems besetting America can or will be solved. Long after President Harris’s second term expires in 16 years.
‘They give the Vic Greens far less oxygen compared to Federal Labor who go out of their way to create catastrophic wedges.’
Federal Labor preferences the Greens. The Vics don’t.
Might explain the difference in results.
Ditto in WA.
If Kamala Harris and AOC can sit down and work out a climate plan, why can’t say KK sit down with Ged and do the same ?
The ALP can afford to ignore the Greens atm because they have taken lots of seats of the Liberals. The Greens have taken seats off the ALP though. So, currently the ALP is looking good. If however, there is a close election and the ALP loses many of its formerly held Lib seats. THen the Greens could very well figure in BoP calculations.
nath @ #516 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:29 pm
A very likely result in Vic in my opinion.
This second wave will take a lot of bark off Andrews.
Christ, who would want to live in the Northern suburbs out Greensborough way.
Toxic dumps, factory fires, untreated water and now burglers.
Could think of better places to live.
Yes Rex, I can feel the ALP being pared back in the Eastern half of the city quite alot. Even despite the liberal clown posse. It will be interesting to see how the ALP deals with the LC next time. With a swing against they might figure shoring up the Greens might be better than having micro conservatives gaining seats.
Taylormade
You obviously have never been to Greensborough.
“If you leave out the attacks on Biden, he’s actually damn right.”
***
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=107&session=2&vote=00237
Rex
‘This second wave will take a lot of bark off Andrews.’
I’m not sure I’d rely on the ‘Herald Sun’ or Tim Smith as a gauge for how Andrews is travelling.
The latest Morgan shows that a huge majority of Victorians support the various COVID initiatives.
And if you think Federal Labor is handling Opposition badly, just look at the Vic Libs!
I expect the Labor people are going to call this a load of crap.
I think there are some cold hard truths in this article.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/08/28/labor-party-program-2020/
($)
zoomster @ #522 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:43 pm
Seems you see him more than just a seat-warmer these days …?
As Trump was walking up the stairs to the lectern to give his speech in New Hampshire he almost lost his balance and fell down! For all his carry on about Biden being senile, he really does need to take a long hard look in the mirror.
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1299489990800412673
Video of crowd waiting for Trump to speak – the reaction when announcer reminds them to wear masks:
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/08/28/trump-crowd-boos-masks-tsr-acosta-vpx.cnn
Rex
I’m not a personal fan of Andrews.
And yes, the party saw him as a seat warmer. I’m sure they’re pleasantly surprised at how well he’s doing.
However, my personal views of someone and objective measures of popularity are two different things.
I don’t like Scott Morrison but I don’t deny the polls show he is travelling well.
‘Seat warmers’ often do surprise people. I think Maggie Thatcher was initially seen as one.
…anyway, Rex, I take it I’m to assume that your assessment of Andrews is not based on objective evidence, but just on dislike of him?
I’d be interested in knowing how you formed your view that he will go backwards at the next election.
I assume Firefox is bucking against all of his leftist allies in the US and supporting Joe Kennedy’s challenge against Ed Markey for the US Senate, right?
Confessions:
Did you see his explanation of his plans for his second term?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/28/politics/donald-trump-2nd-term-new-york-times/index.html
frednk
“The real question is how did a federal responsibility end up being something the states had to do?”
It is a state responsibility if the state wants it to be or thinks it should be.
The clear evidence is that Victoria, like other jurisdictions, accepted the relevant responsibility.
Wakanda forever!
zoomster @ #528 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:53 pm
Voters are irrational, especially the self-interested greedy business types (dreamers).
You just need to walk around the neighbourhood and see the number of businesses closed.
Their pockets aren’t as lined as they would normally be, therefore, in their minds, someone must be blamed. Andrews will be the easy target.
Personally, I think Andrews is on another level as a politician/leader compared to most others on both sides in the Vic parliament. I still think though that there’s a good chance he’ll be gone before the next election.
I was in high school when the Iraq war started and pretty fuzzy on the actual timeline of events leading up to it, but that vote would have happened back when everyone was still under the misapprehension that Iraq had WMDs, yeah?
In any case, I wasn’t aware that voting to go to war was classed as a war crime.
But it doesn’t mean Trump is not a major cause of problems now. One issue I have with the “He’s just a symptom of a broken system” discourse is that it absolves Trump of any agency or guilt, as well as pushes the straw man that his opponents are arguing that you merely need to get rid of Trump and things will be ideal. Everybody knows this is election is not about resetting to some ideal destination but rather getting back on the correct path towards it.
Carbon:
Commonwealth can use DACP (Defence Assistance to the Civil Power) instead (or far more likely, in addition to) DACC.
It has become murky recently, but traditionally one distinction has been:
– DACC can be used when the is no realistic prospect of use of force;
– DACP can be used (and must be used instead of DACC) when be used when there is a prospect of the use of force
DACP has typically been used (and is routinely used) in relation to SASR, 2 Cdo R and presumably the Clearance Diving Branch*) as part of Counter Terrorism and Special Recovery. Presumably this envelopes the other regular components of the special forces command (including regulars within 1st Commando)
IF DACC has been used AND DACP has not been used this apparently repeats the situation in respect of the bushfires deployment, and there were already known problems in that:
– e.g. could ADF personnel stop a vehicle?
and these would flow on into the COVID19 deployment, e.g:
– can ADF personnel guarding borders (a deployment for which they are particularly well suited) stop vehicles? or must they get police to do so?
– can ADF personnel stop people going in or out of hotels?
Was the 24 June request actually invalid under DACC and thus rescinded by mutual agreement on 25 June?
* Re: Clearance Divers: Ruby Princess, come on down!
It’s not.
Rational Leftist @ #537 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 3:04 pm
You need to listen to this guy who was in the room with Trump when he showed who he really is:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/miles-taylor-for-trump-cruelty-is-the-point
zoomster @ #530 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:53 pm
And Rex Douglas, whose frictionless movement away from previously-held very strong beliefs goes against all the laws of physics, used to think Dan Andrews was the greatest thing since sliced political bread.
I’ll check it out when I get some free time, C@t. Admittedly, I am a little hesitant towards US politics podcasts, as a lot of them end up just being a bunch of young white Brooklynites getting drunk/high and trying to be funny/clever.
Also, congrats on getting the new place.
Danama Papers:
Same as in 1932, where:
– Mr Roosevelt was actually more “fiscally conservative” than Mr Hoover (who had spent a lrage amount of time in Australia – http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/hoover-herbert-clark-6729);
– Mr Roosevelt’s party was much more racist and quite possibly more generally “conservative” than Mr Hoover’s.
And yet, it was Mr Roosevelt who unfucked America and set up the world’s most substantial run of economic growth and (not unrelatedly) increased income mobility and thus equality.
C@tmomma @ #539 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 3:12 pm
I remain one of Andrews biggest fans.
But I’ll sure as hell let you know when I’m not.
I’ve been watching a bit of ‘early’ history of Australia around Federation. It’s amazing that Australia was then advanced in so many ways (multicultural northern Australia, female votes & parliamentarians, film making) but turned its back on it, adopted the White Australia policy and eventually ‘progressed’ to this deeply conservative government.
Rational Leftist @ #542 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 3:13 pm
It’s out of Madison, Wisconsin, by and with the best and the brightest who have turned their backs on Trump. 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-29/red-ridge-the-label-features-aboriginal-artists-designs/12601440
Great work ladies.
In NZ a business group including a retired National MP and an Act party leader, wants to import (and presumably sell) Russia’s covid-19 vaccine. The proposal has received a cold reception from medical experts.