More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

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  1. “Firefox did you note that Senator Murray Watt noted Senator Siewert spent her time dealing with issues instead of trying to wedging labor.”

    ***

    I noted he used someone’s retirement announcement as an opportunity to slag off at the Greens for no reason, yes.

  2. Adam Creighton
    @Adam_Creighton
    ·
    1h
    “Melburnians are enduring the longest, most draconian restrictions any Western leader has imposed on citizens”.

    “Lust for power of our not-so-artful dodger.”

    The majority of Victorians support Andrews, in spite of Adam.

    And the journos this morning again demanding details of the next stage. Meeeoooow.

  3. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    22h
    A journalist I know calls this type of claim “driving down bullsh*t gulch”.

    ***
    The Hill
    @thehill
    · 22h
    President Trump: “I have done more for the African American community than any President since Abraham Lincoln.” #RNC2020

  4. Ouch.

    ‘BREAKING: Jacob Blake’s father just said that “It’s too late for Trump to call. He should have called four days ago like Joe Biden.”’

  5. The important thing for Labor is to concentrate on the main game.
    They’ve gotta wop those Green arses once and for all so they stop stealing Labor’s opposition thunder.
    The Greens are a doable opponent for Labor.
    Hell I reckon they’ll even out poll them on the primary!!!!!@@

    The primary vote I tells ya!!!@!@@!!!@@!@!!!!

  6. FredNK

    How galling for you that real action on climate change happened when the Greens had the balance of power and extracted that action as a demand for their support of the Labor Minority government.

    Yeah we know. Just wedge politics. The Greens count for nothing ever. It’s never Labor’s fault.


  7. Firefox says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 11:35 am
    .
    I noted he used someone’s retirement announcement as an opportunity to slag off at the Greens for no reason, yes.

    I’m not surprised you saw it thus, bit sad really, but anyway, their irrelevance to a positive outcomes on issues they claim to be interested in will continue.

  8. FredNK

    Good to see you being honest that Labor is not for the environment.

    That’s the only way the Greens can wedge Labor.

    The only way the LNP can wedge Labor is when Labor says it’s for coal and it’s not.

  9. guytaur
    Yes guytaur for one vote a push to an unsustainable position. What a wonderful outcome. Labor like anything ran by humanity made mistakes. I consider that one of the greatest. It will take Labor a long time to live that one down. It is one of the reasons why Queensland does not trust Labor to deal with the current issues responsible.

  10. Local WA Nats are holding community preselections today. Three people have put their names forward for preselection to this seat for next year’s election, one of whom is an associate of mine. I’m shocked he’s running as a Nat, I thought he’d have been a Green if I had to pick his politics!

    I was tempted to go and vote for him just because the other candidates look substandard.


  11. guytaur says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 12:09 pm

    FredNK

    Good to see you being honest that Labor is not for the environment.

    That’s the only way the Greens can wedge Labor.

    If only.
    The Greens use whatever and the environment to wedge Labor. If the Greens where actually interested int eh environment they would disband and let Labor win and get on with it.

  12. Confessions
    There is a real possibility the NATS will change. Farmers are facing a reality. Denial is not going to solve the problem. If you think he is a good guy and you have the option I’d go and vote for him.

  13. FredNK

    You continually argue that selling false hope to workers is the way to go.

    I call that unsustainable.

    Put real environmental laws in place and let projects like Adani get knocked on the head by the courts.

    Stop arguing the LNP’s deregulation case for them.

  14. guytaur says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    FredNK

    You continually argue that selling false hope to workers is the way to go.

    There is a long way between false hope and telling them you are going to screw them over just to get a few votes that amount to less than nothing in inner city electorates.

  15. frednk @ #468 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 10:18 am

    Confessions
    There is a real possibility the NATS will change. Farmers are facing a reality. Denial is not going to solve the problem. If you think he is a good guy and you have the option I’d go and vote for him.

    I don’t think any of the candidates are farmers. Certainly the guy I know isn’t, he runs the local Foodbank operation. He’s also very religious but not in a creepy way.

  16. NSW Health
    @NSWHealth
    Of the fourteen new cases to 8pm last night:
    – One is a returned traveller who is in hotel quarantine
    – Ten are linked to a known case or cluster
    – Three are locally acquired with their source still under investigation

  17. guytaur
    Suit yourself guytaur.
    The green will continue to contribute nothing to the solution, continue to create a funding block to campaign against Labor. Labor (if they win government against the odds that include the greens anti labor campaign) can actually do something. That is the bottom line.
    It is just the way it is.
    The Greens are not the moral high ground, the greens are a block to progress.

  18. I’m trying to understand what the Commonwealth offered to the state of Victoria that was “knocked back” by “Dictator Dan” which would have prevented the present situation in Victoria. This was the premise put to me by a friend who works in a certain department – no names but potato will give you a clue – and I have no ammunition to fire back.

    Personally I think he might have swallowed the departmental propaganda line but I’m open to being enlightened. I thought Victoria was doing a pretty good job under the circumstances.

    Is it possibly the argument about ADF forces offered/not offered, or whatever the story was, that was mentioned a while ago? I can’t think of anything else.

  19. FredNK

    Keep up your blame the bogeyman of the Greens and watch Labor continue to lose elections.

    Anything to support coal.
    Be the LNP lite climate denial party.

    Also a reminder for you. Science as the pandemic has shown is not a moral high ground. Keep giving exemptions to science you fail.

  20. Ballantyne

    Yes, I think it was the ADF offer, but there is confusion as to their role and whether they were already working in Victoria. I haven’t recorded it all (too lazy) so don’t trust me!!

  21. Cat

    Yes same Labor arguments about the Greens. The same ones Labor partisans have used to lose elections.

    It does get boring but maybe one day Labor people will work out blaming the Greens wins them zero elections.

  22. Guytaur,
    Not interested in being a part of your Saturday manic reply tree. However, I will make one point and one point only to you. Labor keep winning when it counts, in by-elections and in the NT election. The Greens’ vote continues to go backwards, when it counts, in elections. Ergo, your opinions are meaningless.

    That is all.

  23. Ballantyne

    The Australian Defence Force was activated under the Defence Assistance to the Civil Community arrangements, which meant they were not enforcement officers and couldn’t be involved in “the restriction of freedom of movement of the civil community whether there is physical contact or not.” I don’t see how they could be used as security guards.

    The Federal Government chose not to use its powers to officially call out the Defence force for quarantine because, as The Australian pointed out, it wanted “an agreement with the states that sidestepped a need for unilateral federal action” to “ease the risk that their presence on the streets could trigger political blowback on the government.”

  24. C@tmomma @ #483 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 1:06 pm

    Guytaur,
    Not interested in being a part of your Saturday manic reply tree. However, I will make one point and one point only to you. Labor keep winning when it counts, in by-elections and in the NT election. The Greens’ vote continues to go backwards, when it counts, in elections. Ergo, your opinions are meaningless.

    That is all.

    Labor ended up with 90% of the Greens preferences in Eden Monaro.

    Why do they bother?

  25. Cat

    Yes I get it. I am making good points.
    So you have to come out with a way of saying they are not credible arguments.

    It’s funny considering I have not talked about how the Greens will win elections.

    You are right. The Greens have a lot of work to do. Thank you for confirming blaming the Greens does Labor zero help for winning elections.

  26. Quite aside from the recruiting of religious fundies, is it true that Vic Libs have won one election in a quarter of a century?! If so that is remarkable, and yes indeed Kroger’s legacy.

    Tim Lyons@Picketer
    ·
    1h
    The Victorian Liberals have won one State election in 24 years. Kroger’s legacy. What a genius.

  27. “ America is fucked either way. They were fucked before Trump and they will continue to be fucked long after he is gone. This is because Trump is just one of many problems that the country faces and replacing him with a right wing war crim will not fix all the others. The lesser of two evils is still evil and until people stop supporting either kind of evil they will continue to be fucked over in this way. People who support the lesser of two evils are part of the problem, not part of the solution (which is of course not to support evil fuckers in the first place).”

    Your gaslighting establishes why ‘the left’ are basically evil. Good lil’ commissar Firefox. You would have no problem – at all – in signing the warrants if it came to that.

  28. I love peoples naive belief in the ADF- 500 health staff have not been able to be around COIVD patients and not catch it and take it out of the workplace, why do people think the defence force would provide an impervious shield?


  29. shellbell says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 12:48 pm

    The best information about problems within Victoria’s quarantine is set out in the witness statements given to the inquiry.

    Does it matter, the Victorian bureaucracy has already admitted they didn’t have the skill set to set up boarder security. The real question is how did a federal responsibility end up being something the states had to do?

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #494 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 1:36 pm

    “ America is fucked either way. They were fucked before Trump and they will continue to be fucked long after he is gone. This is because Trump is just one of many problems that the country faces and replacing him with a right wing war crim will not fix all the others. The lesser of two evils is still evil and until people stop supporting either kind of evil they will continue to be fucked over in this way. People who support the lesser of two evils are part of the problem, not part of the solution (which is of course not to support evil fuckers in the first place).”

    Your gaslighting establishes why ‘the left’ are basically evil. Good lil’ commissar Firefox. You would have no problem – at all – in signing the warrants if it came to that.

    Stalin would’ve loved the guy.

    What’s the term people use? Ah yes, ‘Useful Idiots’.

  31. Andrew_Earlwood @ #494 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 11:36 am

    Your gaslighting establishes why ‘the left’ are basically evil. Good lil’ commissar Firefox. You would have no problem – at all – in signing the warrants if it came to that.

    If you leave out the attacks on Biden, he’s actually damn right. America was fucked long before Trump came along, and will remain fucked for a long time after he’s gone.

  32. Danama Papers @ #499 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:05 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #494 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 11:36 am

    Your gaslighting establishes why ‘the left’ are basically evil. Good lil’ commissar Firefox. You would have no problem – at all – in signing the warrants if it came to that.

    If you leave out the attacks on Biden, he’s actually damn right. America was fucked long before Trump came along, and will remain fucked for a long time after he’s gone.

    And if you don’t put your hand up to be part of the solution, as Joe Biden is, then you are part of the problem continuing to be a problem.

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