More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

Comments Page 1 of 21
1 2 21
  1. Thanks William.

    In the Pew results you say;

    The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united.

    I assume the second should be less united. 🙂

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe explains how Labor has used parliamentary privilege to accuse Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar of running a “thuggish” operation at the heart of the Liberal Party after the exposure of a branch-stacking scandal.
    And Crowe describes the Sukkar branch stacking issue as “an opportunity for Frydenberg to assert his authority” and says his colleagues are watching to see if he takes it.
    According to The Australian, former federal Liberal vice-president Karina Okotel has apologised for penning a defamatory dirt sheet that covered intimate details of MPs’ private lives, fuelling demands she be expelled from the party.
    Regulations to contain “immoral” behaviour across the financial sector may be needed, a Reserve Bank board member has conceded while revealing his own shock at the findings of the banking royal commission, writes Shane Wright.
    And he tells us that the nation’s businesses are slashing plans to spend on buildings, plant and equipment as up to a third worry they may be unable to pay their bills in coming months, prompting fears of a further hit to Australia’s poor productivity levels.
    Jennifer Duke tells us that permanent residents and citizens with poor English will be given unlimited language classes, and aspiring Australians will face a tougher values test amid challenges to social cohesion from the coronavirus pandemic and foreign interference. Hmm. Values test.
    Labor might have a shot at winning the next election by proposing a clear vision for a better future as opposed to the LNP’s monetary handouts, writes Tarric Brooker.,14245
    Bevan Shields reports that stranded Australians would be evacuated from overseas, flown home and placed into quarantine in remote areas of Australia under a rescue mission being drawn up by the Morrison government.
    The Age says that at the quarantine inquiry yesterday it was revealed that a security company hired to enforce quarantine at one of Victoria’s COVID-19 outbreak hotels was chosen over WhatsApp and favoured because it could recruit almost 100 unemployed Victorians and fulfil the government’s social inclusion objectives.
    Scott Morrison has adopted Emmanuel Macron’s “there-is-no-such-thing-as-zero-risk” rhetoric, but he should also examine Germany’s handling of the health crisis, says the AFR’s John Kehoe.
    In an interesting contribution, Waleed Aly reckons Trump’s strongman routine has finally failed him.
    Kevin Andrews has launched a savage attack on the Chinese government in a private party forum, saying President Xi Jinping was running “the most complete totalitarian regime that we’ve seen probably on the face of this earth”.
    Anthony Galloway, Fergus Hunter and Paul Sakkal examine the effects of the government moving to increase its control over foreign agreements involving universities and state governments, frustrating Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and the university sector, who face having their own deals with foreign nations torn up.
    Michael Shoebridge says that Scott Morrison’s proposed Foreign Relations Act is all about closing the seams in our federation and giving practical effect to the Commonwealth’s constitutional power on foreign relations.
    Michelle Grattan thinks the government’s plan for a veto over university agreements is a step too far.
    The Age explains how Daniel Andrews failed to take up multiple offers from the country’s highest-ranking intelligence and security officials to provide classified briefings on Chinese interference, including general concerns about Belt and Road deals with Beijing.
    Phil Coorey describes how Daniel Andrews has slammed the Morrison government’s plans to terminate agreements with foreign powers, which specifically target China, saying the move will further hamper his state’s economic recovery.
    The SMH editorial says managing our difficult China relationship is Scott Morrison’s job.
    Kate Aubusson reports that NSW Health issued public health alerts for a string of venues visited by people unknowingly infectious with COVID-19 in the CBD, North Sydney, northern beaches and Woy Woy.
    Josh Butler looks at how Richard Colbeck is travelling.
    Private aged care homes and private hospitals in Victoria are failing to use body bags, putting frontline workers and their families at risk. Aged care is regulated by the Federal Government and hospitals are regulated by the state. Luke Stacey reports.
    John Warhurst explains the benefits of the electoral system in the ACT.
    The public outcry over Daniel Andrews’ request for the power to extend Victoria’s lockdown underscores the importance of upholding the principles of parliamentary democracy even during a crisis, writes Phil Coorey.
    Euan Black describes how Australians plan to spend their tax returns in 2020.
    Adam Morton writes that business, industry, farming and environmental leaders have joined forces to warn Australia is “woefully unprepared” for the impact of climate change over the coming decades and to urge the Morrison government to do far more to cut emissions and improve the country’s resilience.
    According to Miki Perkins and Nick Toscano, the rapid development of large-scale renewable energy projects and record popularity of rooftop solar panels have boosted the reliability of Australia’s power supply, reducing the likelihood of blackouts this summer.
    The clash between the big shopping centre owners and their retail tenants during the pandemic has intensified to the point where structural change for both sectors appears inevitable. It won’t be a palatable outcome for either, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    An industry body said charging cancellation fees would become normal for restaurants with tight capacity and some have already implemented the measures to ensure their tables and chairs are full. Fair enough, I’d say.
    Latika Bourke reports that British Labour is stepping up its opposition to the appointment of former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott as an adviser to the British Board of Trade and is demanding UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson explain the details of the plum job.
    And Tony Abbott’s proposed job as the UK’s hired gun on trade is a baffling choice says Malcolm Farr.
    Dana McCauley writes that the Morrison government has refused to publicly rebuke (serial idiot) Craig Kelly for using the federal Parliament and his social media account to attack its reliance on clinical evidence in banning the controversial COVID-19 treatment hydroxychloroquine.
    Elizabeth Knight opines that Rio Tinto is making a mistake by putting a price on the priceless.
    The proposal by the Berejiklian government to grab more winter-spring flows for irrigators on a major river in the state’s north will likely fail because it runs contrary to the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, a senior official said.
    Sussan Ley has been accused of resurrecting Tony Abbott-era laws to create a “one-stop-shop” for environmental approvals and “breaking faith” with environmental groups.
    The nation is ill-prepared and that will hurt the economy, but we can make the changes needed to secure our wellbeing urges Emma Reid.
    Simon Jenkins says that his many U-turns show Johnson is not informed by science but scared witless by it!
    Mike Pence’s speech at the RNC last night underlined that Trump’s campaign will be based on law and order.
    Winning the presidency won’t be enough beacause Biden needs the Senate too, writes Professor Dennis Altman.

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding

    Mark David

    Glen Le Lievre

    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    John Shakespeare

    Simon Letch

    Jim Pavlidis

    Andrew Dyson

    A gif from Glen Le Lievre

    From the US

  3. The Mark David toon about the Daily Hate makes you wonder why Labor doesn’t openly mock the media everytime they get the chance instead of just going meekly along with it all. Does anyone in Labor ever get angry? Or are they all just way too professional for that.

  4. Vale, Paddy Garritty. From the granddaughter of a Seamans Union Organiser. Maybe you’ll meet him in the firmament for the Atheists and have a yarn together. 🙂

  5. Is Gladys Liu still in the Witness Protection Program, put there by a Scott Morrison concerned by the optics of having the only MP in federal parliament who was a member (inadvertently, apparently), of Australian ‘Friendship’ Groups with links to the CCP?

  6. Alex Lisov, Vice President of the Young Liberals and, allegedly, corrupt ultra conservative branch stacker for the Victorian Liberal Party, has resigned from the party but used as his excuse the go to most favoured by sleazy political operators these days, used in an attempt to ameliorate outrage and garner sympathy:

    Mr Lisov said he had lodged his resignation on Wednesday, choosing to resign after “incessant” death threats against him this week.


  7. Colbeck had to leave the chamber to urgently deal with a problem in a facility…according to Morrison…Does anyone believe this???

  8. The future of media interviews.

    S.V. Dáte@svdate
    Actual words from OAN’s “reporter” in her “interview” of Trump:

    “We’re watching Joe Biden slip very gently into senility while you’re at the top of your game. What’s your secret?”

    @nickrobinsearly watched so you did not have to.

  9. lizzie @ #11 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 7:50 am

    Colbeck had to leave the chamber to urgently deal with a problem in a facility…according to Morrison…Does anyone believe this???

    Does Labor? I don’t hear howls of laughter and derision….Don’t hear anyone asking for the name of the facility and the nature of the problem.
    Follow up.
    Push back.
    Every time.

  10. It appears this vaccine business ain’t that simple…

    ‘Executives from Moderna and Pfizer on Wednesday separately told the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice on Wednesday that mRNA-1273, which is Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, requires a storage temperature of negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit. BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidates, BN1162b2 and BNT162b2, need to be stored in negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit.

    “These storage conditions would make traditional office or pharmacy administration very difficult,” SVB Leerink analysts wrote in a note to investors on Thursday. “These conditions could be met at tertiary hospitals and laboratories and could be accommodated in intensive one-day vaccination events at such sites, but this would still only cover a fraction of the healthy population.”

    See also:Moderna’s stock rises after it says COVID-19 vaccine candidate produced antibodies in older patients

    Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they are aware of the issue.

    Dr. Kathleen Dooling, a medical officer for the agency’s division of viral diseases, said Wednesday that storage, distribution, and handling requirements of these vaccines “will make it very difficult for community clinics and local pharmacies to store and administer.” She also noted that most vaccines will have to be “administered at centralized sites with adequate equipment and high throughput.”

    Pfizer will need to use ultralow temperature freezers and thermal shipper storage for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates, according to comments made by Dr. Nicholas Kitchin, senior director of Pfizer’s vaccine clinical research and development group.

  11. Malcolm Farr says Tony is “A highly articulate and well-read man”.

    That’s when you get past the simian walk and the lolling tongue, I suppose.

  12. Colbeck had to leave the chamber to urgently deal with a problem in a facility…according to Morrison…Does anyone believe this???

    Perhaps Scrott actually said Colbeck had problems with a faculty ? I’d believe that.

  13. Not a lot of US polling until the RNC finishes. But this tidbit has come in. Georgia 6th congressional district has another poll showing the Dem candidate ahead. This time by 3pts. Small poll as these generally are – and with the usual caveats that go with these types of polls.

    However, Ga6 was won by the Republican incumbent Tom Price in 2016 by 23pts. He went on to greater corrupt dealings in the Trump admin and the 2017 special election saw the new Republican candidate win over the widely popular (and now Dem senate candidate) Ossoff by abt 4pts.

    The blue wave of 2018 saw the Dems take that seat by a whisker. And if this poll runs true – they will hold it with an increased margin over that mid term blue wave.

    Now…. Georgia 6 is an interesting guide to 2020, not just in the electoral college vote – as outlined by 538 in 2017.

  14. Morning all. Thanks BK for the excellent roundup. Tony Abbott being appointed a trade envoy by Boris Johnson really is bizarre. The brotherhood of far right lunatics really does look after each other.

    But what does Britain get out of it? Will Abbott threaten to “shirtfront” Angela Merkel till the EU caves in to UK demands? That worked so well in getting justice for the victims of flight MH17.

    So why do it if you are Boris Johnson? Why take the risk? What do you owe Tony Abbott? I hope there are enough investigative journalists left in the UK to dig into that question.

  15. ‘fess
    yeah. But they are the lower rated rolling poll averages. I dont find them that indicative. Bidens lead in the head to head was
    6 at start of June.
    9 at start of July
    8 at start of August
    9 a couple of days ago

    I dont see a significant shift yet. The A rated pollsters will come out next week (or the weekend?) and the head to heads and state polls will paint a better picture.

    I am looking at comparing polls now and results in 2016/2018. If the Dems are strengthening and improving on their gains in Georgia then that state and a senate seat is truly in play. I wouldnt put money on it – but Trump will have to put money and staff and hired hands into it.

  16. Alpha Zero

    The BOM seem to have predicted the dangerous areas very precisely, as seen on ABC last night. We were very lucky that the winds missed us. All we suffered was a half hour or so of flickering electricity supply.

  17. Dotard’s latest gaslighting stunt is to pretend there is no COVID-19 pandemic. Or if there was, it’s over.

    Few if any mentions of it in any of the RNC speeches. Nobody wearing masks. And no social distancing, including the setup at the Whitehouse for his acceptance speech soon..

  18. It was windy all day.
    Whilst things quietened down in my part of woods, wild weather elsewhere. Power lines down and sadly people died as a result of falling trees.
    All this whilst under a lockdown and curfew.
    It is hard to get my head around this.

    In any event, we have scomo still beating Victorians down as we speak.

    I say to him and the rest of the cabal. Enough!

  19. Did any other parties’ preferences cause Labor to win?

    Answer: Well, The Greens, obviously. We know that Labor frequently gets strong flows from the Greens so this is hardly anything they wouldn’t have depended on – but there is more to it than normal. In fact, the flow of Greens preferences in Eden-Monaro increased from an already high 87% to a super-high 90.9%, which added 420 votes to Labor’s margin. This flow was stronger than the Greens to Labor flows in all bar two seats (Canberra and an estimate for Cooper) in 2019. Had the flow from the Greens fallen by just three points to 84%, Labor would have lost.

    Damn those evil Labor hating Greens! ….oh wait…

  20. This theory makes more sense than later asteroid bombardment.

    The origins of water on the Earth.

    Earth’s water came from space, but not in the way we thought

    Earth has vast oceans today, but our planet was a dry rock when it first formed — and water was a late addition, rained down in asteroids from the icy outer solar system.

    That’s what the textbooks say, but new research published today in the journal Science, adds weight to a competing idea that Earth was actually born ‘wet’.

  21. I expect the polls to tighten. I expect it will be stressful. Yet the reality is that on the current polling Trump gets smashed into a fetal position. And, unlike 2016, Trump now has a record in government. They are both known quantities. And the stable polling seems to bear that out (compared to Clinton v Trump that was not stable).

    Also, Biden has been consistently at or just above 50 on the head to heads. So Trump would need to win almost all the undecideds and rely on an electoral college advantage. And/or something significant happening in the campaign and cheating.

    Personally, I believe the Dems have an ace up their sleeve – turnout and almost no 3rd party protest vote.

  22. Colbeck had to leave the chamber to urgently deal with a problem in a facility…according to Morrison…Does anyone believe this???

    I don’t suppose Colbeck used to be a plumber?

  23. Barney in Tanjung Bunga (Block)
    Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:56 am
    Comment #38

    The origins of water on the Earth.

    I’ve seen other reports maybe a year or so ago about the planet being wet with hydrogen , oxygen and various other elements contained within the rock.

    In any case very interesting.

  24. Greens accuse Coalition of ‘aiding and abetting’ formation of a police and surveillance state

    Coalition members of the parliamentary joint committee on human rights are “aiding and abetting” the government building a police and surveillance state, the Greens justice spokesman, Nick McKim, says.

    The committee has split along party lines on two controversial bills, leading to accusations that Coalition members are politicising it and ignoring legal advice.

  25. One more post on the US election….
    I note how hard the Dems are hammering turnout. They always do yet this is extreme and coming from many areas, not just within the campaign. Colbert last night gave an impassioned plea for people to turn out and it made headlines.

  26. Craig Reucassel
    Surely this can’t pass??
    Currently CEFC can’t invest in loss making or fossil fuel projects. Proposed changes would see both rules reversed so we can… lose money on gas?

    Australia’s clean energy fund is being primed to pump up the Morrison government’s plans for a gas-led economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, with proposed rule changes to fuel investment in gas power plants and infrastructure.

    Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor introduced a bill to Parliament on Thursday that would change laws that bar the Clean Energy Finance Corp from investing in fossil fuels and remove a rule that prevents it from investing in loss-making projects.

Comments Page 1 of 21
1 2 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *