More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

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  1. Danama Papers

    WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese

    Now there’s a surname I wouldn’t have associated with the Liberal Party.

    But which one is considered the “black sheep” of the family ? 🙂

  2. It seems the geniuses in the Morrison administration have started to think about a plan to repatriate Australians trapped overseas and place them in quarantine in the outback. But at the moment it’s only a plan for a plan.

    Stranded Australians would be evacuated from overseas and placed into quarantine in facilities in remote areas of Australia under rescue missions being drawn up by the Morrison government.

    At least three federal government departments are working on a large-scale plan to bring back Australians who urgently need to fly home and have been blocked by strict caps on international arrivals.

    It can also be revealed desperate Australians who are trying to get back to the country are being coached by government officials to start GoFundMe-style crowdfunding campaigns if they are running out of money, as international travel has ground to a near halt during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The rescue plan is not imminent, but it is being worked on to respond to a range of scenarios — including if a country started deporting Australians because they had cancelled their visas and wouldn’t renew them.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rescue-plan-to-bring-home-stranded-aussies-from-overseas-20200827-p55ptr.html#comments>

  3. Firefox

    Coalition members of the parliamentary joint committee on human rights are “aiding and abetting” the government building a police and surveillance state, the Greens justice spokesman, Nick McKim, says.

    Rather amusing that in Victoria, the Libs are protesting against Andrews for ‘anti-democracy’.

  4. Citizen

    I am wanting and waiting to hear from the Vic govt, that they will no longer participate in quarantine.
    Cos despite what anyone says, the hotel system will fail again.

  5. Andrew Probyn said Scumo is “squaring off” against Andrews accusing him of the lockdown setting back the nation’s recovery. No pleasure expressed at the number of infections coming down. That’s not important to Scomo

  6. citizen @ #52 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 7:13 am

    It seems the geniuses in the Morrison administration have started to think about a plan to repatriate Australians trapped overseas and place them in quarantine in the outback. But at the moment it’s only a plan for a plan.

    Stranded Australians would be evacuated from overseas and placed into quarantine in facilities in remote areas of Australia under rescue missions being drawn up by the Morrison government.

    At least three federal government departments are working on a large-scale plan to bring back Australians who urgently need to fly home and have been blocked by strict caps on international arrivals.

    It can also be revealed desperate Australians who are trying to get back to the country are being coached by government officials to start GoFundMe-style crowdfunding campaigns if they are running out of money, as international travel has ground to a near halt during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The rescue plan is not imminent, but it is being worked on to respond to a range of scenarios — including if a country started deporting Australians because they had cancelled their visas and wouldn’t renew them.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rescue-plan-to-bring-home-stranded-aussies-from-overseas-20200827-p55ptr.html#comments>

    There was a post on the local Consulate WhatsApp page, looking for someone to help crew a stranded yacht from Bali to Darwin.

    Sounded like a lovely way to return. 🙂

  7. And today would be a perfect time for Andrews to tell Victorians, that as a state, we will not be recommencing hotel quarantine for returned travellers. Even though inquiry is ongoing.

  8. Is Abbott being suggested because he is seen as beneficial to UK trade with Australia? That must be his only ‘virtue’, but it may only work while the Coalition is in power.

  9. Barney ITB

    Morrison and co can deal with it. It is a commonwealth responsibility after all.

    I dont want Victoria involved anymore

  10. Barney ITB

    Australia has lots of space. Surely they can find a suitable location.

    After all, Victoria is the smallest state in land size.
    Plenty of other bigger spaces around.
    They can work it out.

  11. [‘…89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew.’]

    So, it appears the campaign headed by Murdoch’s rags and Sky News has failed miserably with the “Dictator Dan” meme. And I daresay the figures would be similar in Queensland, in the wake of the CM and the GCB piling it on the Palaszczuk Government’s closed borders policy.

  12. A good example of what to do with people who have come from Overseas is Hotel Howard Springs.

    Quite a few ex mining camps would make excellent Quarantine locations.

    It’s a matter of having a set intake time, Quarantine for 14 days in that sort of facility and then allowing free travel after that period.

    I don’t think we can be too careful!

  13. Is Abbott being suggested because he is seen as beneficial to UK trade with Australia? That must be his only ‘virtue’, but it may only work while the Coalition is in power.

    Yep. Expect great outcomes for the UK and the LNP.

  14. Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    12m
    To all those clamouring to support the idea that sexual harassment should be treated as an OHS issue, I have a simple message:
    Wrong Way, Go Back

  15. And another pertinent message

    Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    34m
    Another incredible week of unaccountability in #auspoI
    1.Kelly spruiks a dangerous, banned drug.
    2. Colbeck runs out of parliament to avoid questions about aged care deaths.
    3. Sukkar- exposed for endorsing a plan to misuse taxpayers’ money

    Scotty says: nothing to see here x 3

  16. I didn’t ask what Australia gains out of the Abbott deal
    What does the Liberal party gain out of it?

    He’s out of the country for an extended period – isn’t that enough

  17. Developing a new vaccine is only the first part of the complex journey that’s supposed to end with a return to some sort of normal life. Producing hundreds of millions of vaccines for the U.S. – and billions for the world as a whole – will be no small feat. There are many technical and economic challenges that will need to be overcome somehow to produce millions of vaccines as fast as possible.
    ______
    the author is a professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York (CUNY) School of Public Health and have been working in and studying the worlds of vaccine development, production and distribution for over two decades.
    _____
    https://theconversation.com/approval-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine-would-be-just-the-beginning-huge-production-challenges-could-cause-long-delays-144179

  18. Cold temperatures for vaccines have long been “a thing”. Especially for ‘developing nations’ . They have had a lot of practice at working around the problem.

  19. [‘Schoolies will not be going ahead on the Gold Coast this year, with the Queensland Premier saying the event was deemed “high risk”.

    “The schoolies that we have come to know over the years, will not be able to go ahead in that form this year. This is a very tough decision,” Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said.

    “This is a mass event. It poses high risk. High risk, not only the people who attend, all the young people, but also all the people they come in contact with, and of course their families and their friends and their grandparents.”]

    Good. Two of the lastest C.19 cases are from the GC.

  20. poroti @ #80 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 7:58 am

    Cold temperatures for vaccines have long been “a thing”. Especially for ‘developing nations’ . They have had a lot of practice at working around the problem.

    They may have, but those programmes are not on the scale that would be needed for the roll out of a C19 vaccine.

  21. A0 @ 9:00
    ”113 today, 179 Same time last week, betting on double digits tomorrow for the bright and sunny weekend!“

    The 7 day average for Victoria is now below 150, down from a bit below 250 a week ago and a peak over 570 early in the month.

    NSW might be a bit of a worry. I’m hoping it’s not back into double figures on the way up.

  22. I know nothing about this, but I’m guessing it will be tears for the rural regions suffering under lockdowns in Victoria & Qld?

    Prime minister Scott Morrison will address the Daily Telegraph Bush Summit at 10.55am.

  23. Not another one!

    Andrew Geoghegan
    @abcAndrewG
    · 1h
    My final show @abcnews Time to say farewell #abccuts
    Thanks to the very talented people I’ve worked with and thanks for watching

  24. Seems they are “not for turning’ when it comes to elimination.
    .
    Over three-quarters of Kiwis want New Zealand to stay the course with a restrictive “elimination” strategy to fight Covid-19, according to a new poll.
    The poll from Horizon Research asked which of two Covid-19 policies should be followed: A less restrictive approach like Sweden’s, or a continuation of a restrictive approach that sought to eliminate the virus,……………………………
    .https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300093448/coronavirus-kiwis-overwhelmingly-back-elimination-strategy-over-less-restrictive-response

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    True but as it is a global pandemic I’m sure there will be a hell of a lot more resources thrown at it than normally would be the case.

  26. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #39 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:56 am

    This theory makes more sense than later asteroid bombardment.

    The origins of water on the Earth.

    Earth’s water came from space, but not in the way we thought

    Earth has vast oceans today, but our planet was a dry rock when it first formed — and water was a late addition, rained down in asteroids from the icy outer solar system.

    That’s what the textbooks say, but new research published today in the journal Science, adds weight to a competing idea that Earth was actually born ‘wet’.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-08-28/where-did-earths-water-come-from/12598198

    Day 3 wasn’t it? It was a pretty busy god week all up.

  27. I didn’t ask what Australia gains out of the Abbott deal
    What does the Liberal party gain out of it?

    I suspect that the appointment of Abbott by Boris probably underscores something about modern communications.
    Likely Boris lives in the same right wing bubble as Abbott. He doesn’t see or hear about Abbotts failures just that he is a strong supporter of Brexit and was “backstabbed” by a left leaning bleeding heart Turnbull. I daresay (like some of my relatives) Foxnews is the ONLY place to find out the “actual” truth rather than fake news. (My relatives also read the Australian and Courier Mail and cannot be reasoned with,critical thinking is beyond them, I now understand how the Nazi party was able to do what they did).
    Of course those of us that do understand that Abbott can’t walk and chew gum at the same time without falling over know what will happen. I doubt even the internal Torries who do think outside the bubble will understand Abbott is a no go.

  28. ItzaDream @ #89 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:11 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #39 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:56 am

    This theory makes more sense than later asteroid bombardment.

    The origins of water on the Earth.

    Earth’s water came from space, but not in the way we thought

    Earth has vast oceans today, but our planet was a dry rock when it first formed — and water was a late addition, rained down in asteroids from the icy outer solar system.

    That’s what the textbooks say, but new research published today in the journal Science, adds weight to a competing idea that Earth was actually born ‘wet’.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-08-28/where-did-earths-water-come-from/12598198

    Day 3 wasn’t it? It was a pretty busy god week all up.

    Pretty disappointing she only needed the 7th day off, would have set a better precedent if She’d clearly had three holy days rest in every 9 day week.

  29. poroti @ #89 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:11 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    True but as it is a global pandemic I’m sure there will be a hell of a lot more resources thrown at it than normally would be the case.

    I’m not so certain.

    I can see a lot of pressure for Governments to look after their own before worrying much about others.

    There seems to be a lot of nationalism on this front.

  30. Victoria
    I agree. Andrews should just admit that managing hotel quarantine is beyond our capabilities and that our senior public servants are just not up to it.
    Let other states with better systems and controls shoulder the workload.

  31. Confessions @ #27 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:36 am

    SK:

    There have been some polls on Trump approval/disapproval. His approval ratings are going up.

    Simply false. Rasmussen, a pollster with a ridiculous level of Republican lean, has simply been polling more often, skewing the mean. All others are steady.
    From 538
    Dates Sample Biden Trump Net result Pollster
    Jul 15-18, 2020 1301LV 50% 39% 11 Benenson
    17-Aug-20 4141LV 51% 43% 8 MorningConsult
    Aug 15-17, 2020 12000LV 51% 43% 8 MorningConsult
    Aug 15-18, 2020 2840RV 46% 38% 8 HarrisX
    Aug 16-18, 2020 12000LV 52% 42% 10 MorningConsult
    Aug 17-19, 2020 12000LV 51% 43% 8 MorningConsult
    Aug 18-20, 2020 12000LV 52% 42% 10 MorningConsult
    Aug 19-20, 2020 1860LV 49% 39% 10 RedfieldWilton
    Aug 19-21, 2020 12000LV 51% 43% 8 MorningConsult
    21-Aug-20 4377LV 52% 43% 9 MorningConsult
    Aug 19-25, 2020 2500LV 46% 45% 1 Rasmussen
    Aug 19-25, 2020 3829RV 47% 40% 7 Ipsos
    Aug 20-22, 2020 12000LV 52% 43% 9 MorningConsult
    Aug 20-22, 2020 934LV 52% 42% 10 YouGov
    Aug 21-23, 2020 2362LV 51% 43% 8 Change Research
    Aug 21-23, 2020 906RV 50% 39% 11 YouGov
    Aug 21-23, 2020 13272LV 52% 42% 10 MorningConsult
    Aug 21-23, 2020 894LV 49% 40% 9 Leger
    Aug 22-25, 2020 2861RV 47% 38% 9 HarrisX
    Aug 23-25, 2020 1256RV 50% 41% 9 YouGov

    However, according to Rasmussen, there has been a 4% drop in Trump’s approval amongst Likely Voters between 23 and 26 August. At that rate he will be way less than zero by the election. True fact!

  32. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #93 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    poroti @ #89 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 8:11 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    True but as it is a global pandemic I’m sure there will be a hell of a lot more resources thrown at it than normally would be the case.

    I’m not so certain.

    I can see a lot of pressure for Governments to look after their own before worrying much about others.

    There seems to be a lot of nationalism on this front.

    Yeah everyone will be over it as the last of the developed countries get their hands on enough, then it will be simpler and cheaper to just start banning travel from poor countries.

  33. Check out the impossibly bureaucratic process that Tehan’s fee reforms will bring:

    “Now Tehan proposes to have some commission trawl universities’ offerings subject by subject, which essentially draws universities fully into the state and would be a chaotic bureaucratic tangle.”

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/08/27/humanities-university-fee-reform/

    The Senate has to face the reality that these reforms have “NEXT GOVERNMENT PUT ME IN BIN” tattoeed over its idiotic forehead.

    There is therefore a serious equity question over whether any particular cohort of students should wear these punitive costs for 2-3 years before their inevitable abolition.

  34. 2000+ have gathered on the south end of the WH to hear Trump’s acceptance speech, with no social distancing, most not wearing masks. The only good thing is that this circus will end tonight.

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