More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

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  3. How many of these mistakes is Facebook allowed to get away with just making mealy-mouthed apologies for? If I didn’t need my Facebook account for work I’d have gotten rid of it a while ago.

    Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged in a video post Friday that the company erred by not taking down an event listing for a militia group that encouraged armed civilians to defend the streets of Kenosha, Wis., from civil unrest before the fatal shooting of two people this week.

    Facebook removed the page for the “Kenosha Guard” and an event listing for “Armed Citizens to Protect Our Lives and Property” after the shootings Tuesday night in which Kyle Rittenhouse, 17, allegedly killed two men and seriously wounded a third.

    Looking somber in a blue T-shirt and speaking in a slow, halting manner, Zuckerberg said the page and event listing violated Facebook’s policies and should have been removed after the company received numerous complaints about their violent nature. He called the error “largely an operational mistake.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/08/28/facebook-kenosha-militia-page/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_fb-kenosha-515pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

  4. Morning all

    Much thanks BK for todays reports.

    Speaking of Facebook, my youngest has deactivated her account this week.
    She has had enough of the bile circulating on the platform.
    Not surprised that even the Age newspaper experience has asked the obvious question of Facebook.

  5. ”McGowan is spot on with Clive – a vexatious litigant indeed!“

    There are lots of appellations with fewer syllables that would also suit.

  6. VicGovDHHS
    @VicGovDHHS
    #COVID19VicData for 29 August, 2020. There were 94 new cases detected in Victoria yesterday, and we are sad to report 18 lives lost. More information will be available later today via our media release.

  7. Another Trump spreader event coming up!

    About 500 supporters crowded in an outdoor airport hangar here on Friday night ahead of President Trump’s appearances, with some people wearing masks but most choosing not to wear them.

    Though campaign officials did not bill the event as a rally, many of the trademark rally characteristics were present: Campaign signs, the usual soundtrack that features opera and Elton John and loud chants of “LOCK HER UP,” referring to former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, the 2016 nominee for president.

    Chairs were crowded together close to the stage, and attendees were not tested for the coronavirus, though temperatures were taken outside for at least some guests. Some volunteers handed out masks and water bottles near the entrance to the event. Some boos rang out when an emcee encouraged people to wear masks.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/28/trump-biden-live-updates/?hpid=hp_no-name_rnc-luf-thursa%3Aprime-time%2Fpromo#link-5SGAVBVCX5EJXCVYBYQ2J7Q7P4

  8. Vic:

    If I didn’t need it for work I’d have deleted my account too. I don’t see much bile on the platform, but my disgust for Zuckerberg has increased exponentially over the last few years.

  9. Coronavirus: Victoria records 94 new cases and 18 deaths

    Victoria’s daily coronavirus case number has dropped below 100, with 94 new infections recorded and 18 deaths.

  14. Been There @ #334 Friday, August 28th, 2020 – 11:35 pm

    C@tmomma
    All the best with your move.
    Moving is very traumatizing at the best of times,let alone in this current political and Covid environment.
    Take confidence in that your new home will be full of sunshine and that this is the last term of a Federal coalition government for a very long time.

    Sunshine is the best disinfectant for governments, to be sure. 🙂

  15. Fess

    I have personally never been on Facebook, but from what my family members have been reporting to me. The last few months it has gone to another level of cray cray.

  16. Confessions @ #360 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 8:47 am

    phoenixRED @ #359 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 6:46 am

    Coronavirus: Victoria records 94 new cases and 18 deaths

    Victoria’s daily coronavirus case number has dropped below 100, with 94 new infections recorded and 18 deaths.

    That is very good news!

    And, from a political point of view, just when NSW’s cases are going up for the NSW Coalition state government.

    And, no, it’s not good from a medical point of view. I wouldn’t want one more case than necessary. For any government, of any political stripe.

  17. OH went to get a few groceries this morning and saw the front page of Herald Sun at counter
    Something about covidiots. I’m assuming it is about the planned protest for 5th September…..

    herald sun covidiots from http://www.heraldsun.com.au
    3 minutes ago · Police will go to war with covidiots as Victoria stands on the cusp of defeating coronavirus. The force has vowed it will up the ante to …

  19. Victoria @ #365 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 9:11 am

    Fess

    I have personally never been on Facebook, but from what my family members have been reporting to me. The last few months it has gone to another level of cray cray.

    I have heard that it’s because facebook introduced ‘Groups’ and that has just encouraged the crazies to congregate and organise better than they were previously able to.

    Honestly, if I were 9Fairfax, I’d pull my facebook pages so that the determined nutjobs couldn’t get away with their spamming tactics. facebook would rather have 9Fairfax than the nutjobs, I would imagine, so they’d have to do something about them if they wanted 9Fairfax back on their platform. Fight fire with a blowtorch!

  21. Urban Wronski
    @UrbanWronski
    ·
    13m
    The federal government says it has made the “first milestone payment” of a $3.6m grant to Shine Energy, the inexperienced company proposing a coal-fired power station at Collinsville in north Queensland.
    ·
    12m
    The Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources confirmed to Guardian Australia that Shine had now received a chunk of the grant, despite warnings by environmental groups that any payment prior to a disallowance vote in federal parliament could be “improper”.

    8m
    “First the government picked an inexperienced winner and then crafted the guidelines to justify their decision, and now they have dished out the money before the Senate has even finished deciding whether they can.”
    Larissa Waters

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/29/shine-energy-gets-first-milestone-payment-of-36m-grant-for-collinsville-coal-plant?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

  22. Thank you BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.

    Newcastle today – currently 15℃ – projected top 21℃
    Wind NNE 15 km/h

    So sad with deaths in Aged Care – just mentioned as a number of deaths.

  25. 94 cases in Victoria is good news. Zero would be better but it is trending in the right direction. Sadly, the deaths remain high. I expect that these would be mainly from those who contracted the Virus a few weeks ago when daily case numbers were 400+.

  26. Confessions @ #370 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 9:16 am

    C@t:

    Have you found a new home? That’s great news, and so quick too!

    Yes, ‘fess, I have! And it’s a pretty little, former weekender that can still be found around here if you’re lucky. So, 2 bedrooms, which is all I need, a sunny, beachy kind of house, with the bay across the road for my son to go kayaking in and the beach back the other way over the hill! He’s still near his friends and I’m still near mine.

    It helped knowing the real estate agent in charge of making the choice about who would get the place from the half dozen or so applicants. 🙂

  27. Facebook is insdidious….

    ‘ Listen, liberals. If you don’t think Donald Trump can get re-elected in November, you need to spend more time on Facebook.

    Since the 2016 election, I’ve been obsessively tracking how partisan political content is performing on Facebook, the world’s largest and arguably most influential media platform. Every morning, one of the first browser tabs I open is CrowdTangle — a handy Facebook-owned data tool that offers a bird’s-eye view of what’s popular on the platform. I check which politicians and pundits are going viral. I geek out on trending topics. I browse the previous day’s stories to see which got the most reactions, shares and comments.’

    But what sticks out, when you dig in to the data, is just how dominant the Facebook right truly is. Pro-Trump political influencers have spent years building a well-oiled media machine that swarms around every major news story, creating a torrent of viral commentary that reliably drowns out both the mainstream media and the liberal opposition.

    The result is a kind of parallel media universe that left-of-center Facebook users may never encounter, but that has been stunningly effective in shaping its own version of reality. Inside the right-wing Facebook bubble, President Trump’s response to Covid-19 has been strong and effective, Joe Biden is barely capable of forming sentences, and Black Lives Matter is a dangerous group of violent looters.

    Mr. Trump and his supporters are betting that, despite being behind Mr. Biden in the polls, a “silent majority” will carry him to re-election. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s oldest and most online son, made that argument himself at the Republican National Convention this week. And while I’m not a political analyst, I know enough about the modern media landscape to know that looking at people’s revealed preferences — what they actually read, watch, and click on when nobody’s looking — is often a better indicator of how they’ll act than interviewing them at diners, or listening to what they’re willing to say out loud to a pollster.

    Maybe Mr. Trump’s “silent majority,” in other words, only seems silent because we’re not looking at their Facebook feeds.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/what-if-facebook-is-the-real-silent-majority.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  29. “Sunshine is the best disinfectant for governments, to be sure. ”

    ***

    Yeah well pity Labor have been blocking attempts by the Greens to establish a Federal ICAC for about a decade. Imagine if the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison circus had of been “bathed in sunlight” this entire time. Just think about that.

  33. Steve777

    The majority of deaths sadly are aged care residents. And that will continue.
    The commonwealth stuffed it up badly. But of course, they are not responsible.

    I dislike Morrison and co more than I ever have and that is saying something.

  34. I joined Facebook at the start of the lockdown in NSW back in March to keep in touch with family. I have only a few “friends” – family members. We mostly post old family photos, photos of get-togethers and outings, family news. There is a Trump fan in the USA who posts stuff like “white lives matter” (on which I don’t comment or react). I seem to have avoided the “cray cray”.

  35. sprocket, Vic:

    The problem is Facebook is never forced to reform, and they certainly never offer to reform.

    Zuckerberg just fronts a congressional hearing every now and again, cap in hand and appearing contrite, apologising the behaviour won’t recur and blaming some underling or whatever, and is allowed to continue on his merry way.

  36. sprocket_ @ #375 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 7:20 am

    Facebook is insdidious….

    ‘ Listen, liberals. If you don’t think Donald Trump can get re-elected in November, you need to spend more time on Facebook.

    Since the 2016 election, I’ve been obsessively tracking how partisan political content is performing on Facebook, the world’s largest and arguably most influential media platform. Every morning, one of the first browser tabs I open is CrowdTangle — a handy Facebook-owned data tool that offers a bird’s-eye view of what’s popular on the platform. I check which politicians and pundits are going viral. I geek out on trending topics. I browse the previous day’s stories to see which got the most reactions, shares and comments.’

    But what sticks out, when you dig in to the data, is just how dominant the Facebook right truly is. Pro-Trump political influencers have spent years building a well-oiled media machine that swarms around every major news story, creating a torrent of viral commentary that reliably drowns out both the mainstream media and the liberal opposition.

    The result is a kind of parallel media universe that left-of-center Facebook users may never encounter, but that has been stunningly effective in shaping its own version of reality. Inside the right-wing Facebook bubble, President Trump’s response to Covid-19 has been strong and effective, Joe Biden is barely capable of forming sentences, and Black Lives Matter is a dangerous group of violent looters.

    Mr. Trump and his supporters are betting that, despite being behind Mr. Biden in the polls, a “silent majority” will carry him to re-election. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s oldest and most online son, made that argument himself at the Republican National Convention this week. And while I’m not a political analyst, I know enough about the modern media landscape to know that looking at people’s revealed preferences — what they actually read, watch, and click on when nobody’s looking — is often a better indicator of how they’ll act than interviewing them at diners, or listening to what they’re willing to say out loud to a pollster.

    Maybe Mr. Trump’s “silent majority,” in other words, only seems silent because we’re not looking at their Facebook feeds.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/what-if-facebook-is-the-real-silent-majority.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Facebook is a reflection and amplifier of what you do online.

    The amplifying is a major problem as you largely see what conforms to your interests, so your views are mainly reinforced rather than challenged.

  37. It is getting to the stage, particularly here in Melbourne as evidenced by the assistant commissioner for police, is that the nutters need to be called out.

    They are putting the rest of us at risk.
    Their behaviour and conduct is going to make getting out of this second wave more difficult.
    Who would have thought that as a state, we had to fight against the sabotaging opposition liberals, the feds, media and the frickin nut jobs.
    No wonder everyone is exhausted.
    ………
    ⁦
    @jameschessell
    ⁩

    “Facebook has made it very clear that the profits it generates by providing a safe space for nutters and extremists overrides all other considerations.”
    COVID conspiracy theorists declare ‘digital warfare’ on media
    The Age’s Facebook page has been hit by a co-ordinated spam attack.
    theage.com.au
    9:01 AM · Aug 29, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

  38. citizen @ #378 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 7:22 am

    Interpretation: Morrison doesn’t have a clue and is making it up as he goes along.

    Australia is prepared to play a long game in its China strategy, even as Beijing launches economic strikes against Australian industries.

    by Anthony Galloway

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/the-china-strategy-australia-prepared-to-play-the-long-game-20200828-p55qbe.html#comments

    It seems that Morrison is entirely focused on the domestic benefits and disregards the international consequences.

  39. I agree Vic, we talk about ‘low information voters’ when in fact many are ‘Facebook information voters’.

    For example, 5 of the top 10 most viewed/shared/commented on Facebook items just now are FoxNews stories about paedophile ring busts in Georgia, with commentary that defunding police will mean that the paedos will have license to run free and molest your kids.

    This stuff is relentless.

  40. Steve777:

    I don’t see much crazy on Facebook but then don’t really seek it out. I’m in a few groups, mostly weather related which are fiercely monitored and any AGW denier stuff is deleted and its proponents banned.

    I also belong to some groups that are associated with my favourite authors, and there is zero political content posted there.

  42. Sprocket

    It is relentless. Hence why my daughter who is 22, has deactivated her account this week.
    She has had enough of the cray cray. She felt like she was being assaulted and abused.
    This is despite her best efforts to push back against it.

  43. Steve Schmidt said in a podcast I just listened to that Team Trump’s use of social media is eerily similar to post WW2 eastern Europe’s use of technology of their day to crush political opponents and dissent. He said if Trump wins a second term expect them to go after their opponents with gusto, that what we’re seeing now is just the tip of the iceberg.

  47. So the suicide rate is down and the nutters don’t like it.

    I’m sure their are people suffering, I suspect a lot are treating it as recovery time. In normal times saying “bugger it all” and locking yourself in your cave would be unacceptable. The problem is going to be getting back into it when it is all over.

  49. Confessions @ #388 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    Steve Schmidt said in a podcast I just listened to that Team Trump’s use of social media is eerily similar to post WW2 eastern Europe’s use of technology of their day to crush political opponents and dissent. He said if Trump wins a second term expect them to go after their opponents with gusto, that what we’re seeing now is just the tip of the iceberg.

    Expect to see polls coming in 50/50 within 4 weeks.
    I was thinking he could be beaten and was about to abandon my prediction.
    My waters tell me otherwise now.
    Americans really are that dumb.

  50. I reckon suicide rates are down because there has been less opportunity for bullying in the workplace and school environments.

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