More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

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  1. Billionaire Andrew Forrest is defying the COVID-19 pandemic to cast his eye over investment opportunities in Papua New Guinea, where the strife-torn island of Bougainville is home to the giant mothballed Panguna copper and gold mine.

    Australia’s richest man also plans to visit Indonesia with a Fortescue Metals Group delegation after meeting the PNG Prime Minister James Marape and touring the resource-rich country where Australian miners have a checkered and controversial history.

    A Fortescue team visited Bougainville last year just before an independence referendum on the island where tens of thousands of lives were lost in a 10-year war sparked by disputes over foreign mining.

    On top of his dip into PNG, Dr Forrest’s private company Tattarang could also run the rule over Lion’s dairy business after Treasurer Josh Frydenberg blocked the planned $600 million sale to China Mengniu Dairy on national interest grounds.

    Fortescue said the Australian Border Force authorised a business travel exemption for the group led by Dr Forrest which would “allow early stage discussions on important philanthropic and investment opportunities, providing potential for contribution to COVID-19 economic recovery” in PNG and Indonesia.

    “All relevant approvals have been obtained and a COVID-19 management plan is in place,” the spokesman said.

    Just mention investment opportunities and Covid. Job done.

    https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/andrew-forrest-leaves-australia-on-png-asset-hunt-20200828-p55q95

  2. Asha Leu

    I know of someone whose wife assures me is “very, very intelligent”, who doesn’t see many people and spends much time on the Web. So he “reads a lot”. He believes that the Holocaust couldn’t have happened because there just weren’t that many Jews in the world at that time. There’s apparently lots of material supporting this belief. Just like climate deniers.

  3. This was posted here a few months ago but worth repeating – why don’t the British like Donald Trump?

    https://bergensia.com/someone-asked-why-do-some-british-people-not-like-donald-trump/

    Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England, wrote this magnificent response:

    “A few things spring to mind.

    Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever.“

  4. I wonder how Jenny Morrison’s QAnon-believing best friend squares her friendship with the Morrisons against QAnon’s belief that Scott Morrison is a facilitator of John Howard’s paedophile protection racket?

  5. Chris Bowen, quoted by Lizzie @ 3:35.
    There is enough misinformation out there without Liberal MP’s promoting more. There is an obligation on Scott Morrison to speak out in support of the DCMO.

    There’s an obligation on Scott Morrison to see that dangerous imbeciles like Craig Kelly lose their preselection.

  6. Dan Rather
    @DanRather
    · Aug 28
    The Trump re-election strategy seems to be to argue that only Donald Trump can save America from Donald Trump’s America.

  7. Now then ❗

    Hands up all those that thought that Mr. Whatsisname should return from Hawaii to do summat about bushfires.

    Donations now being accepted by the “Poll Bludger Finance and Retribution Officer” with a view to returning Mr. Whatsisname to Hawaii together with a suitable alternative for the “Volcano Gods”.

    A suitable device to load the choice in favour of the alternative sacrifice is being sought. Please help.

    Goodnight all. 📺💤💤💤

  8. Confessions @ #525 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:46 pm

    As Trump was walking up the stairs to the lectern to give his speech in New Hampshire he almost lost his balance and fell down!

    I’m sure the steps were quite steep and challenging, and slick with rain as well. We should look forward to hearing all about it. 🙂

    Also, New Hampshire? Why is Trump wasting his time in New Hampshire? All of New England is blue and staying that way.

  9. lizzie

    They saw the White Australia policy as part of the whole ‘dream’ – a workers’ paradise. It wasn’t contradictory to the rest at all.

  10. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/breakthrough-for-andrews-on-emergency-power-as-cases-fall-again-20200829-p55qix.html

    Breakthrough for Andrews on emergency power as cases fall again
    By Noel Towell
    August 29, 2020 — 4.30pm

    The Andrews government has struck a deal with state MPs to continue Victoria’s state of emergency beyond September 14, as daily COVID-19 case numbers fell below 100 on Saturday for the first time in more than two months.

    But Premier Daniel Andrews reported another 18 lives lost to the virus, taking the state’s toll to 514, as he urged Victorians to “find a way” to keep following lockdown rules and not be tempted into risky behaviour by the falling case numbers and sunny weather.

    ……………………….

    A deal has been hammered out with crossbench MPs in the upper house, giving Mr Andrews’ government a one-off extension which will last six months, but not the permanent legislative change it was seeking, on condition that members of Parliament are briefed on the health situation each time a new four week state of emergency is declared.

    The deal, which will force Labor to return to the Parliament in March if it still believes it needs emergency powers, is believed to be acceptable to at least four of the crossbench, giving Mr Andrews and his colleagues the numbers they need to narrowly pass the compromise arrangement through the chamber on Tuesday.

  11. If as I suspect the state premiers overruled Morrison on the quarantine of returned travellers he would have had no choice but to publicly agree to it. If this is the reason for the states assuming responsible for hotel quarantine then he may have publicly supported it but not offered any money.

    The only way we will ever know is if someone tests the cabinet confidentiality status of the national cabinet of leaders. Some believe that it is not covered due to the inclusion of state premiers. The fact the discussions could become public might be one reason Morrison is continuing to publicly support Andrews. What would the public say if they found out that this was something he opposed.

    On the subject of using ADF in quarantine roles, Morrison was the one who decided which type of deployment was appropriate. If he was so desperate for the ADF to be involved in policing, as in stopping people leaving hotels, he should have used the more significant state of emergency. I am happy that Andrews has limited the public exposure to ADF in civil roles as I think Morrison has pushed every other boundary of our democracy and I don’t trust him.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 5:06 pm
    I wonder how Jenny Morrison’s QAnon-believing best friend squares her friendship with the Morrisons against QAnon’s belief that Scott Morrison is a facilitator of John Howard’s paedophile protection racket?

    Without knowing, I suspect that QAnon and other conspiracy theory collectives are spreading a lot of mutually contradictory assertions. After all, it’s a bit like chinese whispers – a person might read something on Facebook or Twitter and then reposts the message with some of their own comments.

    I wouldn’t think that there is much centralised control over the precise content of these conspiracy theories – rather some mastermind sets the ball rolling and then leaves it to enthusiastic brainwashed amateurs to spread the nasty virus. At some point there will be mutually contradictory claims but the nasty masterminds don’t care so long as enough people are sucked into this growing web of lies and deceit.

  13. Does the ADF have any particular capabilities in infection control? Or the Police? Maybe correctional staff if the hotel quarantinees are regarded as being in detention, but even if that had merit their normal job still needs to be done.

  14. a r @ #613 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 5:20 pm

    Confessions @ #525 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 2:46 pm

    As Trump was walking up the stairs to the lectern to give his speech in New Hampshire he almost lost his balance and fell down!

    I’m sure the steps were quite steep and challenging, and slick with rain as well. We should look forward to hearing all about it. 🙂

    Also, New Hampshire? Why is Trump wasting his time in New Hampshire? All of New England is blue and staying that way.

    Except for Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Charlie Baker in Massachusetts.

  15. citizen,
    I’m amazed people haven’t thought about connecting Russia to QAnon. Seems like the sort of thing that’s right up their alley.

  16. citizen:

    That’s exactly what’s happening. It’s a mix-and-match stew of every conspiracy under the sun, with everyone free to follow those that reinforce their own fears and prejudices and ignore the ones that don’t.

  17. Anyone else watch Planet America?

    I’m not sure if it’s good “analysis” or not. I mean trying to rationalise the Trump Show AKA RNC.

  18. since this whole lying fake qanon fad started i don’t know of any serious conspiracy theorist who’s tracking the alien lizard people threat anymore. this could have serious consequences for us all. -a.v.

  19. Firefox:

    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 12:00 pm

    Really, dear, you seem to be attempting to turn this site into a Greens’ propaganda site, evidenced by your posts today, which in essence have been tweets by Waters, with little or no analysis by you.

    The Greens are no different from the extreme-Right – arguably worse?

  20. What a bunch of crooks are Trump and his bunch of sycophants. They’ve stolen yet another piece of well loved music.

    Trump’s misuse of ‘Hallelujah’ shows song cannot remain the same

    The estate of Leonard Cohen is not happy. Donald Trump has taken the most cherished song in Cohen’s catalogue for his political purposes.
    by Warwick McFadyen
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-misuse-of-hallelujah-shows-song-cannot-remain-the-same-in-us-20200829-p55qhe.html

    Here’s my suggestion for Trump’s theme song to be played every time he appears in public.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXOwNOf2QXY

  21. Steve777 @ #2825 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 6:03 pm

    Does the ADF have any particular capabilities in infection control? Or the Police? Maybe correctional staff if the hotel quarantinees are regarded as being in detention, but even if that had merit their normal job still needs to be done.

    Having had a bit to do with biological agents & the ADF, I would say emphatically no – however they can be trusted to do what they are instructed to do by their Federal political masters, and they do have distinctive uniforms to make it look like Scummo from Marketing is actually “doing something” other than protecting his Spiv mates.

  22. Mavis

    Firefox:………….Really, dear, you seem to be attempting to turn this site into a Greens’ propaganda site

    Because that would cause a demarcation dispute with the crew who think this site is a ‘Labor site” ?

  23. Because that would cause a demarcation dispute with the crew who think this site is a ‘Labor site” ?

    I’m not sure I could cope with that discussion.
    It would be a fight to the death.

  24. rhwombat:

    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    Morrison has become very agitated of late. Within the Federation, he can’t do what he likes, demonstrative of his frustration – very angry, whose actions will be ultimately be exposed. It’s all about the economy apparently.

  25. So glad Andrews did not get the 12 month extension he was after.
    I wonder if they had to offer Meddick’s son a job again to get his vote.

  26. Kroger has been a woeful influence for decades. Frydenberg too passive to assert authority. Hopeless rabble that should be out of power for many years to come.

  27. poroti:

    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    [‘Because that would cause a demarcation dispute with the crew who think this site is a ‘Labor site” ]

    No, cobber. I just think that Firefox over bakes it.

  28. I’m listening to Miles Taylor, former Dept Homeland Security CoS to the dept secretary talk about how Trump thirsted for violence and harm against immigrants crossing the southern border. He’s spoken in other interviews how Trump wanted to put a moat with snakes and alligators around the border wall, but here he speaks about Trump wanting the spikes on top of the wall sharpened, his bloodlust and demands that officials hurt them physically even use guns on them if they throw rocks.

    Trump sounds like a total psychopath. Even more than I’d perceived him to be.

    https://podcast.thebulwark.com/miles-taylor-for-trump-cruelty-is-the-point

  29. Victoria:

    I can kind of understand wanting your rhetoric to be as inflammatory as possible when speaking publicly, if you’re a reactionary populist – just recall Scott Morrison when he was Immigration Minister.

    But these were things said in private meetings behind closed doors. Trump obviously gets off on the cruelty.

  30. ‘John Ruddick
    @JohnRuddick2
    ·
    8h
    Births Deaths and Marriages Victoria confirms monthly overall deaths in a sharp decline … what a pandemic!’

    So this guy is disappointed deaths are down??

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