More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  2. Rex Douglas @ #432 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 8:57 am

    lizzie @ #428 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 10:54 am

    Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt
    ·
    7m
    Best wishes to Rachel Siewert on her retirement. While our politics differ, I’ve respected her work ethic on inquiries we’ve done on robodebt, redress, poverty. Shame to lose a Greens Senator who focuses on this Govt’s harm, rather than wedging Labor.

    Pathetic from Watt.

    It’s NEVER Labors fault.

    Yes Rex, we know how astute your opinions are.

    By the way did you catch with Kevin Bonham’s piece on E-M preference flows.

    I thought you said Labor was beholden to the Shooter, Fisher and Farmer Party for their victory.

    Did the Shooters preferences flowing to Labor cause Labor to win?

    Answer: No. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers preferences flowed 55.98% to Labor, favouring Labor by 606 votes. But this is less than Labor won by, so even had the Shooters preferences split evenly, Labor would still have won. For Labor to have lost, the Shooters preferences would have had to flow 51.27% to Kotvojs, a 7.25% difference.

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/08/preference-flows-and-eden-monaro-result.html

  4. frednk @ #494 Saturday, August 29th, 2020 – 11:47 am


    shellbell says:
    Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 12:48 pm

    The best information about problems within Victoria’s quarantine is set out in the witness statements given to the inquiry.

    Does it matter, the Victorian bureaucracy has already admitted they didn’t have the skill set to set up boarder security. The real question is how did a federal responsibility end up being something the states had to do?

    IIRC it was because the feds wanted people to self isolate at home and the States saying, WTTE,

    No fucking way!

  5. Don’t forget the public reporting of COVID 19 cases were handed over to different Department other than CDC:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-18/us-coronavirus-data-white-house-what-it-means-for-the-world/12467322

    Which is most likely why you are not seeing high deaths, it’s a setup by Trump to claim “virus” going away.

    CDC was side lined in July, which makes sense when you are seeing lower death numbers.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

  6. John Ruddick

    ”Births Deaths and Marriages Victoria confirms monthly overall deaths in a sharp decline … what a pandemic!’”

    And who’s John Ruddick when he’s at home? A “well-known identity inside the New South Wales Liberal Party”. And he knows this how?

  7. ”Births Deaths and Marriages Victoria confirms monthly overall deaths in a sharp decline … what a pandemic!’”

    Shows Social Distancing works for all kinds of infectious diseases.

    Not something to complain about.

  8. Ruddick on Ruddick:

    “John Ruddick has been an advocate of democratic reform within the NSW Liberal Party since the mid-1990s and on two occasions his efforts have almost had him expelled from the party. He has written opinion pieces about politics and history for The Australian, Sydney Morning Herald, The Spectator, Quadrant, The Drum and The Guardian and occasionally appears on Sky News. When not advocating political reform he has run a North Sydney based mortgage broking business since 2002”

    So, he’s a mortgage broker with too much time on his hands.
    and…
    He’s written a book! (don’t they all?)
    “Make the Liberal Party Great Again”
    MLPGA – Mmm…. needs work, John.
    https://www.booktopia.com.au/make-the-liberal-party-great-again-john-ruddick/book/9781925642568.html

  9. Bushfire Bill

    Just shows how if we all clean our hands etc…etc then we can save lots of lives.

    Because hygiene saves us all!

  10. My thoughts?
    The media is running a protection racket for the coalition government.
    Why I don’t know?
    End story, their support for such a denial regime will come back and bite them in the backside.
    Particularly in the sense of media favoritism.
    Rupert your love affair with Aussie MSM has gone sour!

  11. CEFC, gas projects, Taylor, media responses, name calling and not holding the age care hose just about places a marker on the Morrison government.
    The media propaganda industry, full steam ahead, Andrews is a dictator and the disappearing bush fire trick.
    Pandemic or the Cup, that is the question. To be or not to be?
    And run down to the food retailing duopoly and pick up the little thingies please !
    Ths thud will be huge whenever, as will the surprised dust covered faces, as reality finally confronts.
    But the upside, Sir Tony Fudggett has sailed home to the rapturous delight on so many levels.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This all I could come up with this morning.

    Dan Andrews has struck a deal to continue Victoria’s state of emergency beyond September 14 as case numbers fall below 100.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victoria-aims-for-less-covid-19-cases-nsw-hopes-clusters-reduce-as-australian-death-toll-jumps-to-584-20200829-p55qgd.html
    Greg Jericho reminds us that before Covid-19 inflicted its carnage, the Australian economy was already struggling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/aug/30/before-covid-inflicted-carnage-the-australian-economy-was-struggling
    Dennis Atkins says that after a hellish week, Morrison played his ‘China card’.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/08/29/scott-morrison-accountability-atkins/
    Labor should take a stand on Australian national security, defence and foreign policy – and not be so piss weak, says Jack Waterford in quite an interesting contribution.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6899551/labor-is-never-so-piss-weak-as-when-some-sort-of-principle-is-involved/?cs=14350
    Emergency doctor, David Berger, believes that our infection-control response is broken and need a new model for health care workers – and fast.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-infection-control-response-is-broken-we-need-a-new-model-and-fast-20200826-p55pc0.html
    Victoria’s public transport will lose 114 million yearly trips post-pandemic, and city roads face worsening congestion as infection-wary commuters desert the network in favour of their cars, explains Tinna Jacks.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/back-to-cars-public-transport-expected-to-take-post-pandemic-beating-20200828-p55q6q.html
    Jewel Topsfield writes that people living in overcrowded public housing towers will be offered the opportunity to move to private rental properties for two years to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/public-tower-tenants-offered-relocation-to-fight-spread-of-covid-19-20200829-p55qip.html
    Allan Behm tells us what’s needed to repair Australia’s relationship with China. It’s respect and fairness.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2020/08/29/australia-china-wang-xining/
    What hiring a failed Australian prime minister tells us about corrupt Britain explains Nick Cohen.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/29/how-fitting-for-the-tories-to-hire-a-worthless-former-australian-pm-tony-abbott
    Trump’s misuse of ‘Hallelujah’ shows the song cannot remain the same in US, Writes Warwick McFadyen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-misuse-of-hallelujah-shows-song-cannot-remain-the-same-in-us-20200829-p55qhe.html
    Arwa Mahdawi ranks the five most terrifying performances by women at the RNC.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/29/trump-inner-circle-five-most-terrifying-performances-women-rnc

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding


    Mark Knight

    From the US




  15. love that banksy. and he calls it “Louise Michel”, what a guy. -a.v.

    The 30-metre-long Louise Michel, a former French navy boat daubed in pink and white, was bought with proceeds from the sale of Banksy artwork.

    The side of the vessel’s cabin features a picture of a girl holding a heart-shaped life buoy in Banksy’s familiar stenciled style.

    Bristol-born Banksy, who keeps his identity a secret, is known for his political and social-commentary graffiti that has popped up in cities around the world.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/banksy-migrant-rescue-boat-1.5704900

  16. Kayjay @ 7.11
    “I’m not quite sure where Mr. Mark Knight is coming from.”
    Tongue “through” the cheek this morning !

  17. BK @ #455 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 7:14 am

    KayJay
    Knight punched a hole in China arguing that Covid-19 did not come from Wuhan.

    Yes, I got that. I guess that (since I woke up thinking that today is Monday) I expected nuance from a cartoon (♪ what ♫ kind of ♪ fool ♫ am I?) and I have one of my beady little eyes on Mr. Knight anyway.

    There are some quite interesting items in “The Economist” which might be worth a
    look.

    https://www.economist.com/

    Newcastle expecting 24℃ today. Time to tiptoe through the tulips. 🌷🌷🌷🌷

  18. An unusually bright “red sky” this morning. Now the wind is increasing. Lucky enough to avoid the awful damage from last week, I hope my luck holds today.

  19. Morning all and thanks BK. Looks like a good Insiders this morning.

    Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    1h
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:

    • Opposition Leader @AlboMP
    • @mpbowers talks pics with @ellinghausen
    • On the couch are Niki Savva, @murpharoo +@annabelcrabb
    •@CaseyBriggs is back with #TheCurve

    See you at 9am. #auspol

  20. ‘Employment in the rest of Victoria was almost 3 per cent higher in July compared with the same month last year..’

    ‘Decentralisation may be the unintended bonus of the coronavirus for both Melburnians and their regional cousins to the north and south-west of the capital.’

    I find this an interesting observation. John Brumby was a big promoter of decentralisation, and of course Bracks was from regional Victoria (as is Andrews).

    The upgrade of the railway line to Ballarat made it an easy commute to Melbourne.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victorians-are-proving-more-resilient-than-the-rest-of-australia-may-realise-20200828-p55q7y.html

  22. Mega also looks at the effect Morrison’s attacks on Victoria might have on the next election —

    ‘Queensland won’t matter if Morrison’s transparent politicking provokes a backlash against his government in Victoria.’

  27. C@t:

    LOL I hate moving too. Even though you might resolve not to keep unnecessary stuff, you still find you’ve ended up hanging onto a whole load of unnecessary stuff!

  28. ‘fess,
    We knew it was on the cards, so most of this year we have been getting rid of the absolute dross, but we still have loads o’ stuff! 😀

  29. Here’s a theory. If Victorians are proving more resilient than people thought they would be, maybe that means that they are more resistant to Morrison’s blatant politicking, duck shoving of responsibility onto the states and that they are capable of discerning Morrison’s general unwillingness to accept responsibility for the messes he is responsible for, than people think?

  30. A different take on the RNC. I didn’t watch, but Team Trump used real people as an attempt to try to humanise Trump.

    Especially poignant were Marsha and Carl Mueller, who spoke of their 26-year-old daughter, Kayla, who was captured, tortured and killed by the Islamic State in 2015 while on a humanitarian mission in Turkey. They minced no words in suggesting that inaction by the Obama-Biden administration was to blame for Kayla’s fate. Citing Trump’s success in freeing American hostages, they said that had Trump been president when Kayla was detained, she’d be alive today.

    Some may consider these moments little more than shameless, emotional manipulation, as I did when Democrats pulled some of the same heartstrings during their convention. What made the RNC’s lineup so effective, however, was that they were so numerous. The new message was that the Trump we don’t see working behind the curtain is a much kinder, much gentler guy than anyone knew. Accurate or not, the stories may have had the desired effect of humanizing him while diminishing the idea that Democrats are the “decency” brokers.

    By now, some readers are surely screaming into their pillows. But we’ve seen this disconnect between perception and reality before: in 2016, when Trump was elected, and in 2004, when George W. Bush was reelected. Both were shocking developments to the media and liberal quadrants of the electorate. The chasm between expectations born of polling and expectations born of instinct remind us that there is in-the-know, and then there is in-the know about the rest-of-America.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-gop-convention-showed-democrats-how-its-done/2020/08/28/d3e6d93e-e96b-11ea-97e0-94d2e46e759b_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-b-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

  31. Starting from the point of view that the States and Territories make up the Commonwealth of Australia with the Federal Gummint effectively acting as the “opposition”: apparently neither rain nor snow nor gloom of night (thanks US Postal Service) seems to have been substituted with “see how sad and miserable I am that a child has died* – Mr. Gorbachov/Ms. gladys berejiklian/ Annastacia Palaszczuk/Mr. Mark McGowan”tear down those walls”.

    Breaker – breaker

    Indeed, there is scientific validity to the adage, “red sky at night sailors delight; red sky in the morning sailors take warning.” This saying has very old roots. In the bible (Matthew 16:2-3), the following quote is attributed to Jesus: “When it is evening, ye say, fair weather: for the heaven is red.

    Resume

    A dedicated team of “Parliament Dinner Ladies” are believed to be huddling together after hours and attempting the formerly impossible mental challenge of a triple somersault with two twists performed from the high platform (working with no (that’s zero) nets while simultaneously telepathically sending real information to empathy receptors in the collective brains of those Gummint members thought to be amenable to reason.

    F’rinstance

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/health/covid-19-superspreaders-boston.html?surface=home-discovery-vi-prg&fellback=false&req_id=262412155&algo=identity&imp_id=790103228

    On Feb. 26, 175 executives at the biotech company Biogen gathered at a Boston hotel for the first night of a conference. At the time, the coronavirus seemed a faraway problem, limited mostly to China.

    But the virus was right there at the conference, spreading from person to person. A new study suggests that the meeting turned into a superspreading event, seeding infections that would affect tens of thousands of people across the United States and in countries as far as Singapore and Australia.

    The study, which the authors posted online on Tuesday and has not yet been published in a scientific journal, gives an unprecedented look at how far the coronavirus can spread given the right opportunities.

    Go for it Mr. Whatsisname – get them borders open, demand the right for entrepreneurial young ladies to travel from “up home in Queensland” (they – some of them – do talk like that) to Melbourne to pick up a designer handbag or two plus maybe an unwelcome monkey on the back and return clothed in glory to spread largess to an adoring public.

    – My BS machine needs recharging –

    Toodles. ☕

    *

    https://miro.medium.com/max/456/1*jhRP1qrRZ5K9D801Mtnj5Q.jpeg

  33. KayJay

    For us, it was “Red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning. Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight.”
    No sailors involved.

  43. Andrew Bartlett
    @AndrewBartlett
    ·
    1h
    I hadn’t realised until recently that California uses prisoners as firefighters. To then not let them work as paid firefighters on release because they have criminal records is an especially evil catch-22

  46. One thing RW peeps in the US of A have been banging on about is the use of words like “mostly peaceful’ by the msm when describing the protests. They may have a point. Check out the background use by CNN. Not the best selection for the message being given 🙂
    .

  47. Confessions, the RNC was successful at many levels – certainly ‘showtime’, but mainly the increasingly professional prosecution of ‘the lie’ as ‘the truth’, in an all stops out no holds barred reversion of reality, inverting the cause of the chaos reigning down on the USA to O’Biden.

    I thought this discussion distilled what’s going on pretty well: Trump playing to his base on which fear to fear most – a pandemic that he has under control and will end any month soon, or societal breakdown which has Biden as its root cause, and will explode into western civilisation collapse unless he the chosen one is reelected.

    https://youtu.be/8eX8QazdRVE

  48. I had to Google Dr Peter Ridd and was shocked (shocked I tells ya!) to discover that he was sacked by JCU for dissing his colleagues’ research on the impact AGW is having on the reef. Unsurprisingly (esp if he’s hooked his star to Malcolm Roberts), he’s challenging the sacking in the High Court.

  49. ItzaDream

    ……societal breakdown which has Biden as its root cause, and will explode into western civilisation collapse……….

    Looking at the DNC speakers and what Fox News has been banging on about that is pretty much his central plank. The current round of protests may well be ‘manna from heaven’ for the Trump campaign. The perfect backdrop for the selling of such a message.

  50. Itza:

    Thanks for that, I’ll watch after Insiders.

    It’s just so like the Republicans to take one of their deficits head on (Trump’s lack of empathy) and run with that front and centre. Given the election is much closer than people think, let’s hope it doesn’t have the desired effect.

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