Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

Comments Page 2 of 65
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  1. Lars Von Trier @ #49 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 6:15 am

    Despite the outbreak of weird Sam Maiden paranoia last night, everybody knows Labor will make peace with News Limited at some point.

    I doubt they will want to go through another 2019.

    The lack of air travel is a complicating factor but at some point there will be the audience with Rupert. If it was good enough for one K Rudd …

    Labor is still voluntarily appearing in the sewer, still treating News Corp as a legit outlet, and Albo is doing all he can to convince everyone he is liberal light. So yeah he’ll kiss Rupert’s ring.

    Even if we had a very strong leader and Labor members refused to appear on / in any news corp production having the attacks mostly coming from outside the caucus, and from senior guys like Rudd would probably make sense.

  3. Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.

    A new version of Firefox for Android – all the addons which make “Poll Bludger” poster friendly are not yet supported.

    Oh me oh my oh you* –revert to V68 and reload C+ and various other addons.

    *Does your chewing gum lose its flavour ….

  4. guytaur @ #50 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 6:18 am

    Firefox

    It’s never too late for anyone. Resigning from Sky News May just be the best thing to help someone’s mental health.

    This tells you a lot about what I think of Sky News. Australia’s Fox network

    The purpose of the news corp global publications is very clear Rupert doesn’t even keep it a secret Probyn reported on it, and put Stokes in exactly the same bucket. That the crimes they commit, the lies they tell and the racism they spread through each different outlet is slightly different doesn’t mean they aren’t all working to Master’s thoughts if not voice.

  5. guytaur

    Few Labor branches have been as enthusiastic when it comes to demonising the Greens as the Victorian branch, who set up the facebook page ‘Greens taking credit for things’ and absolutely refused to give Greens second preferences on any ticket where it was possible to avoid doing so.*

    Hasn’t done them a speck of harm.

    *I argued very strongly against this approach, as in conservative rural areas we’re not exactly spoilt for choice when it comes to finding like minded candidates….

  7. Lars Von Trier
    Kissing Rupert’s ring, definitely has proven helpful . Tony Blair in particular went ‘above and beyond’ to get to Rupe’s yacht for ‘the ceremony’ . However, is it still as necessary ‘these days’ ? Probably.

  8. Hopefully Bernie Bros will be influenced by their cult leader, learn from 2016 that throwing a temper tantrum and either sitting out or voting for a minor third party with no hope of being elected ultimately just sets your cause back even further. Nothing is more important in these elections than ejecting Trump from the WH. Most esp not your own hurt feelings.

    And it also matters that Sanders had a way to frame his remarks as something other than a concession of defeat. It was a call to arms. President Trump, Sanders said, is a uniquely threatening figure; therefore, his defeat is the highest and most urgent political priority. What had seemed an ocean of difference among Democrats — between Medicare-for-all (Sanders) and Medicare-for-all-age-60-and-over (Biden) — vaporized to a puddle in the rush to battle stations.

    Sanders will likely be our last major presidential candidate born before Pearl Harbor. Nearing his 79th birthday, he must have realized that this convention speech might be his last to a nationwide audience. The temptation to mount once more the barricades and repeat again the familiar lines of his lifelong agenda was no doubt great. He decided, however, that there are higher stakes in this election than the Sanders agenda, higher stakes than the future direction of the Democratic Party.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bernie-sanders-decided-that-the-stakes-were-higher-in-this-election-than-his-agenda/2020/08/18/ee599e46-e187-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-a-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

  9. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, August 19, 2020 at 8:19 am


    Labor is still voluntarily appearing in the sewer, still treating News Corp as a legit outlet, and Albo is doing all he can to convince everyone he is liberal light. So yeah he’ll kiss Rupert’s ring.

    ————-

    Labor members and the political party should have known, the reason why the foreign owned corrupt media wanted Albanese , is the point you make

    Albanese is the media’s appeaser , until those in Labor get the guts get a leader will take on the media , nothing will change

  10. Confessions

    Listening to John Katich and Rick Wilson will destroy the Democrat party.

    It’s smart to use them to win an election. It’s stupid to let GOP politicians and staffers frame the Democrat agenda.

    Edit: Biden is not so stupid it’s why he gave time to Sanders. As Sanders pointed out. The movement he is part of is stronger not weaker.

  12. Labor made the judgment in 2019 it could win without Rupert. In turn Rupert knew that Labor winning without him would seriously undermine his power and worked overtime to take Labor out.

    Whatever the issues with the extreme concentration of Rupert’s power (which Labor created under the Hawke Govt) it seems sensible that there would be a peace concluded given winning without Rupert is a very dicey proposition.

    Albo of the famed Tele headline “Save our Albo” seems a logical peacemaker.

  13. Shorten agree with his views or not

    Was the leader that Labor needed, Shorten got under the libs/nats and the propaganda units for the libs/nats skin, and Labor were making deep inroads .

    Got rid of 2 prime ministers , deputy prime ministers

    Only thing that saved the corrupt foreign media owned and controlled Libs/nats , were the gullible Australians who fell to propaganda

  14. Lars Von Trier @ #23 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 7:27 am

    New covid 19 cases are down to 40,000 per day in the States.

    As a stand alone statement, that is meaningless. Even Trump knows if you test more you’ll find more. And if you test less, you’ll find less. US testing numbers are falling. What you need to see is falling numbers of positive cases against a background of increased numbers of testing.

    Otherwise it’s like turning off the lights and saying you’ve solved the cockroach problem.

    https://time.com/5878063/covid-19-testing-united-states/

  15. WeWantPaul

    That the crimes they commit, the lies they tell and the racism they spread through each different outlet is slightly different doesn’t mean they aren’t all working to Master’s thoughts if not voice.

    On the eve of the Iraq war all (from memory) 151 ‘independent’ editors of Rupe’s publications wrote an editorial in support of the wars. Quite by coincidence I’m sure.
    As for the “master’s voice’. There was quite a celebration when The Australian marked it’s 25th birthday. A comment and story that was repeatedly told by then current and former editors and employees was how Rupert seemed to know and keep an eye on everyone, even tiny details.It was not a criticism from them but it told you how much he instilled a sense that The Master was watching everyone,always,everywhere.

  16. “Each state should look after their own”
    OK Anna, no more treatment for 6000 Queenslanders at the Tweed hospital, if that’s the kind of dirty game you want to play.

    Johny Miller
    @jmil400
    ·
    23m
    That is a gobsmacking statement from #Palaszczuk.
    The #QueenslandGovernment is being bloody-minded. Northern NSW is NOT a Covid hotspot and, due to proximity, the Northern Rivers has always relied on the Queensland tertiary health facilities.

  17. Morning all

    C@t

    Caught up with your news about moving.

    Hope you get the house nearby!

    Meanwhile. Morrison is truly an imposter. About time team Labor started to put pressure to bear. I’ve just about had enough of him.
    Apparently Victoria is going to start taking returnees again soon. I say enough already.

    The question that should be asked, if that overseas travellers are continuing to return to Australia, they need to go in a special quarantine facility. Enough of this crapola.

    Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude
    @GeorgeBludger
    ·
    6m
    Rolling on the floor laughing “look, I might be the Prime Minister of Australia, but I’m not responsible for, err, you know, anything that happens *in* Australia”
    Quote Tweet

    News Breakfast
    @BreakfastNews
    · 40m
    .@mjrowland68: Does the buck stop with you as Prime Minister for the litany of aged care failures?

    @ScottMorrisonMP: We regulate aged care, but when there is a public health pandemic … then they are things that are managed from Victoria.

  18. guytaur @ #60 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 6:31 am

    Confessions

    Listening to John Katich and Rick Wilson will destroy the Democrat party.

    It’s smart to use them to win an election. It’s stupid to let GOP politicians and staffers frame the Democrat agenda.

    Yeah I don’t think it will move him much he is too old too centrist and probably too lazy, but they should play this united front stuff, but then act even more like an opposition than the Republican’s from the day he gets elected. The Justice Democrats need to make a lot more waves and from early.

  20. poroti @ #65 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 6:38 am

    WeWantPaul

    That the crimes they commit, the lies they tell and the racism they spread through each different outlet is slightly different doesn’t mean they aren’t all working to Master’s thoughts if not voice.

    On the eve of the Iraq war all (from memory) 151 ‘independent’ editors of Rupe’s publications wrote an editorial in support of the wars. Quite by coincidence I’m sure.
    As for the “master’s voice’. There was quite a celebration when The Australian marked it’s 25th birthday. A comment and story that was repeatedly told by then current and former editors and employees was how Rupert seemed to know and keep an eye on everyone, even tiny details.It was not a criticism from them but it told you how much he instilled a sense that The Master was watching everyone,always,everywhere.

    Yeah from recruitment through to editor in chief the culture is going to be careful in who it employs and promotes. Of course there will be some real journos and even some lefty’s that isn’t inconsistent with the model, so long as the balance is maintained in fact it helps preserve the facade they are not just pure propaganda outlets.

  21. Nurses and doctors are getting covid even with all the PPE protocols. Are we to expect that despite training or PPE in hotel quarantine, it cant happen again. This is a highly contagious virus.

    Come on Labor. Tell Morrison that until Australians are all vaccinated, or the virus decides to die out, future travellers need to be quarantined in a commonwealth facility.
    Cos you can bet your bottom dollar, that leakage from quarantine will happen again

    Until a vaccine or virus dies out, we will be playing whack a mole otherwise.

  22. He is been excellent in this space

    Rick Morton
    @SquigglyRick
    ·
    46m
    Hmmm. I have much more on this in this weekend’s
    @SatPaper
    Quote Tweet

    News Breakfast
    @BreakfastNews
    · 56m
    .@mjrowland68: Does the buck stop with you as Prime Minister for the litany of aged care failures?

    @ScottMorrisonMP: We regulate aged care, but when there is a public health pandemic … then they are things that are managed from Victoria.

  23. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    Well recognised that this is the way people with overweening ambition and mediocre ability slither their way to the top. They start perfecting this art at primary school.
    ***

    Michael Pascoe
    @MichaelPascoe01
    · 49m

    I wasn’t there.
    It wasn’t me.
    You didn’t see me.
    You can’t prove a thing.
    (The cascading Bart Simpson defence) twitter.com/jonkudelka/sta…

  24. While most eyes and commentary have been on day 1 at the DNC, Trump’s rally in Oshkosh Wisconsin was completely deranged up to and including planting the seed of getting a third term.

    This (sponsored) commentator has a few (scary) clips I can’t otherwise find extracted from the whole hour long freak show.

    https://youtu.be/JMI9UkK7Fuw

  25. Morrison boasts the vaccine will be *free*.
    Of course it will be free…it will be on the National Immunisation Program Schedule.
    Another grubby soapbox moment from #ScottyFromMarketting

  27. WeWantPaul
    There were some fairly bolshie sorts at Rupe’s place before ‘the turn of the century’ . However once the internet started to bite and deadwood papers started dying it was heave ho to them and a number of old hands. He began filling up the editorial pages with articles from peasants from the IPA and CIS. Much cheaper. Among the ‘surviving’ journos as the axe kept falling there would have been quite an urge to compete for the ‘most ideologically correct’ employee award so as to avoid being ‘voted off the island’. The pay there for senior journos seems to be quite handsome.

  28. ItzaDream

    The most blatant Trumpism was his declaration.

    If I don’t win, you’ll know it was rigged.

    And his faithful followers are going to believe him. Deliberate incitement to riot.

  29. Yep. And I gotta say Morrisons smirk is really starting to piss me off.

    Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    Let me see if I’ve got this right: Scotty’s regulations don’t go to the the issue of managing the health of the hapless inmates.

    WTF. What kind of “regulation” is that?
    Quote Tweet

    News Breakfast
    @BreakfastNews
    · 1h
    .@mjrowland68: Does the buck stop with you as Prime Minister for the litany of aged care failures?

    @ScottMorrisonMP: We regulate aged care, but when there is a public health pandemic … then they are things that are managed from Victoria.

  30. The Cathy Wilcox cartoon is spot on. Thanks BK, you’re a gem!
    Spotted this in relation to sterilising N95 masks for reuse, I wonder how reliable the research is. The waste of disposable masks will be massive on a global scale and also the amount of plastic used in PPE in hospitals is quite staggering. Absolutely essential during this epidemic but am concerned about long term sustainability.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/mask-n95-multicooker-covid/2020/08/14/94544304-dd8d-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html

  31. We could argue that there isnt even a need for a PM. So really ScoMo should take early retirement.

    Mrs & Mr Wilma Slurrie
    @WilmaSlurrie
    So relieved. Such wonderful news today – PM Scoff Morrison isn’t responsible for anything. Not Aged Care, not quarantine ships, not pandemic plans.

    Be well, Scoff. Take some time off with Jenny and the Puzzles. Watch the Sharks. Go to Macca’s. Call Donald. Relax.

  33. Poroti

    In my view Labor should have taken the hint when Rick Morton left.

    As Victoria says his expertise as a specialist journalist is excellent.

    I think the bigotry combined with science denial just got too much for him.

  36. Sweet jebus. Surely he is taking the piss.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Herald Sun
    @theheraldsun
    Sam Newman has revealed his political ambitions, saying a member of “the Liberal government” has sounded him out about running for Lord Mayor of Melbourne.
    Newman considers joining race for Lord Mayor
    Sam Newman is considering joining the race to be Melbourne’s Lord Mayor.
    heraldsun.com.au

  37. lizzie @ #78 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    ItzaDream

    The most blatant Trumpism was his declaration.

    If I don’t win, you’ll know it was rigged.

    And his faithful followers are going to believe him. Deliberate incitement to riot.

    lizzie, I’m genuinely fearful, unless a Biden win is seriously overwhelming.

    Cold nasty weather coming – electric slippers weather, and maybe a wee drop of gin.

  39. C@t

    We bought washable masks. Then my daughter made a whole heap of them.
    She has bought more fabric cos she wants to make more.
    That’s what happens when you have been stood down and cant work. Too much time on your hands.
    Lol!

  40. Victoria @ #85 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 9:12 am

    Sweet jebus. Surely he is taking the piss.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Herald Sun
    @theheraldsun
    Sam Newman has revealed his political ambitions, saying a member of “the Liberal government” has sounded him out about running for Lord Mayor of Melbourne.
    Newman considers joining race for Lord Mayor
    Sam Newman is considering joining the race to be Melbourne’s Lord Mayor.
    heraldsun.com.au

    The Liberals do seem to like men who don’t treat women well, for Lord Mayor, don’t they?

  41. wedloik 8m ago

    For those listening to Morrison bullshit on the need for patients to go to Queensland Hospitals.
    Tweed Heads has a level 5 Base Hospital that provides the following…
    Cancer Care Unit: 7:30am-6:30pm (opening hours of day only unit; patients encouraged to have support during treatment)
    Coronary Care Unit: 2pm-8pm
    High Dependency Unit: 10am-8pm
    Intensive Care Unit: 10am-8pm
    Medical Ward 1 (Acute Medical/Step Down Cardiac): 2pm-8pm
    Medical Ward 2 (General Medical/Palliative Care): 11am-12:30pm and 2pm-8pm
    Medical Ward 3 (Combined Medical/Surgical & Renal): 10am-12noon and 2pm-8pm
    Medical Ward 4 (Short Stay Medical): 10am – 12pm and 2pm – 8pm.
    Renal Dialysis Unit: 7am-9:30pm
    Paediatric Ward: 10am-8pm. (One parent may stay 24hrs)
    Surgical 1 (General Surgery): 2pm-8pm and on request
    Surgical 2 (Orthopaedic Surgery): 2pm-8pm and on request
    Kurrajong – Tweed Mental Health Clinic: 2pm-8pm Mon – Fri; 10am-8pm weekends
    Women’s Care Unit: 2pm-8pm (NSW Time). Partners and siblings may visit during the morning. Mothers are encouraged to rest from 12 to 2pm and phone calls are discouraged during this time.
    Could someone please call this dickhead out for his bullshit.

  42. Poroti and WWP,
    Episode 1 of the BBC’s program about the Murdoch Dynasty makes it clear that it’s Rupert who is The Master, not the company.
    This is often true of businesses built by an individual who tightly controls the direction it takes.
    When that person leaves, usually by death, then the company, which becomes “managed” instead of “led”, may fall into decline.
    Witness what happened to Apple when Jobs left in 1985.
    Rupert hopes his children will take over from him, but only Elizabeth seems to have the drive to build companies, and she now runs her own independant businesses.
    I doubt the the close ties with, and support of, the Liberal Party will continue past Rupert’s departure.
    We can but hope.

  43. ItzaDream

    I think we are right to be fearful. Sociopaths in charge.

    Paul Meek
    @PaulMeekPerth
    ·
    32m
    Scott Morrison’s Plan B while waiting for a vaccine – “to continue to live positively with the virus” – actual quote this morning. Yeah, the hundreds of dead, especially in aged care, are really following that advice. What a dropkick. #auspol

  44. C@t:

    I remember you saying a while ago your place was on the market. Hope you can find somewhere soon and get settled in a new place. Moving, esp after so long is a horrible experience.

  46. Of course if the federal regulations were good enough to keep the virus out of aged care homes, then there would be nothing for the States to manage.

  49. Sweet jebus. Surely he is taking the piss.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Herald Sun
    @theheraldsun
    Sam Newman has revealed his political ambitions, saying a member of “the Liberal government” has sounded him out about running for Lord Mayor of Melbourne.
    Newman considers joining race for Lord Mayor
    Sam Newman is considering joining the race to be Melbourne’s Lord Mayor.
    heraldsun.com.au

    Now that Bolt has left the village we need another idiot.

  50. Lizzie

    Frankly it’s time for Labor to start holding Morrison the imposter to account.

    I gave him the benefit of doubt due to pandemic.

    But as the saying goes, if someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

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