Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

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  1. LVT
    There are 140,000 voters in a land area about 6 times the size of Victoria. There is a lot of very nice places to disappear with no roads if you have a mind to.

  2. The Repugs have a 1 page platform for endorsement at their Convention. They could have made it one sentence; Pucker up and kiss Dotard’s ass!

  3. LVT if people have the skill to go bush during a pandemic good luck to them. If seems like the very sane thing to do. The Liberal senator simple noted that when she went to the remote committees there was no-one there.

    I was well aware you where trying to pull the fake moral card but I really don’t care as my view is good luck to them. If you have an issue with people going bush that is your problem not theirs or mine.

    The meek shall inherit the earth.

  4. citizen @ #3186 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:27 pm

    I ‘ll let others read the article to discover whether RDN is referring to himself or other politicians:

    Departing di Natale bemoans ‘failure’ to take real action on climate change

    1 hour ago by Chip Le Grand (Age headline)

    I’ve been saying for years the Greens need to ditch the vanity third wheel advocacy issues and focus on the environment. There’s now an entire generation of Greens voters who quite rightly should be asking former and current Greens MPs what they have achieved for the environment and AGW in 30 years + in parliaments.

    The answer is an uncomfortable SFA as RDN is now discovering.

  5. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 9:15 pm

    “Those who abstain are disproportionately indigenous in the NT. That’s a very telling thing about how unjust the NT electoral politics is.”

    There’s nothing unjust about it. A huge effort is made to give people the opportunity to vote. If they decide not to take that opportunity then it is exactly that – their choice.

  6. In 2016 100,000 voted out of a roll of 135,000 – it disproves your “blackfellas gone bush” thesis frednk.

    No doubt bucephalus the same thing would be said by a Likud spokesperson about Arab Israelis.

  7. Citizen
    No idea who he is, but the Daniel Andrews protection society will soon be onto him. They have already started on Fiona Patten.

  8. Confessions @ #14706 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:14 pm

    The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday gave emergency approval for expanded use of antibody-rich blood plasma to help hospitalized coronavirus patients, allowing President Trump, who has been pressuring the agency to move faster to address the pandemic, to claim progress on the eve of the Republican convention.

    Mr. Trump cited the approval, which had been held up by concerns among top government scientists about the data behind it, as welcome news in fighting a disease that has led to 176,000 deaths in the United States and left the nation lagging far behind most others in the effectiveness of its response.

    At a news briefing, he described the treatment as “a powerful therapy” made possible “by marshaling the full power of the federal government.”

    The decision will broaden use of a treatment that has already been administered to more than 70,000 patients. But the F.D.A. cited benefits for only some patients. And, unlike a new drug, plasma cannot be manufactured in millions of doses; its availability is limited by blood donations. Mr. Trump urged everyone who has recovered from the virus to donate plasma, saying there is a nationwide campaign to collect it.

    This is a Trump stunt for the RNC – like the Russian vaccine (or HCQ). There have been some small trials using convalescent plasma in COVID-19 since Feb, and I’ve used it for other conditions. It’s a bugger to use, with a high incidence of quite serious adverse effects (including lethal anaphylaxis). It’s not going to fly any further than any other Trump emissions.

  9. rhwombat:

    Yep, Trump has been hounding the FDA to push forward with the trials, even against expert advice. He just wanted some good news to lead into the convention with.

  10. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    “No doubt bucephalus the same thing would be said by a Likud spokesperson about Arab Israelis.”

    Is it International Leftie Anti-Semitism Day?

  11. This “James Moutsias” in The Age is creepy.

    He’s “a law graduate”.

    So what?

    There is a James Moutsias on Facebook. Nowhere else.

  12. If it’s fear monger if to say Andrews wants to keep the lockdown going for 12 months then why does he want to extend the powers for 12 months? So he can’t do it for 12 months?

  13. Bucephalussays:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 10:32 pm
    If it’s fear monger if to say Andrews wants to keep the lockdown going for 12 months then why does he want to extend the powers for 12 months? So he can’t do it for 12 months?
    I suppose he can manage any outbreaks if and when they occur. I’ve been critical of Andrews and the quarantine debacle but I don’t buy into the Dictator Dan meme which is pretty nonsensical.

  14. mask wash hands socially distance fight covid.
    Queensland’s top doctor shuts down Dutton’s criticism

    “Peter Dutton has one job, and that is keeping our borders safe, and he has consistently failed; he has failed on cruise ships, he has failed on hotel quarantine.”

    Mic drop.
    Queensland’s top doctor shuts down Dutton’s criticism
    The LNP rolled out its most senior Queensland politician to launch a fresh attack on the state’s border closure.

  15. This “James Moutsias” in The Age is creepy.

    He’s “a law graduate”.

    So what?

    There is a James Moutsias on Facebook. Nowhere else.

    He only graduated from Monash University this year: Bachelor of Laws (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts.

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